Which airlines will take control of the takeoff and landing slots at LaGuardia that were held by Spirit Airlines prior to their May 2026 bankruptcy?

TL;DR

Frontier is the most likely recipient because it is the only named airline with a prior signed deal for this exact LaGuardia package and it fits the FAA/DOT low-fare signal. Southwest, JetBlue, and a non-listed carrier such as Porter or Allegiant are live because the slots may be split or reshaped by regulators rather than sold as a clean block. American, Delta, United, and Alaska are long shots because LGA is already concentrated and the FAA, DOT, and Port Authority have strong reasons not to reward another dominant or non-low-fare incumbent (Bloomberg Law).

Context

Spirit announced an immediate wind-down on May 2, 2026, cancelled all flights, and said no additional funding was available after fuel-price and liquidity shocks (Spirit press release). Its LaGuardia portfolio is now being monetized in bankruptcy; Bloomberg Law reported that the estate is marketing 22 LGA slots with a value estimate as high as $86.7 million, while creditors, regulators, and the Port Authority are fighting over how much public-interest control should shape the sale (Bloomberg Law).

As of June 19, 2026, no final allocation was public. Judge Sean H. Lane approved Spirit to market the slots on June 10, bids are due June 30, and the auction is set for July 9 (Bloomberg Law, Bloomberg Law). I treat the package as 22 individual FAA Operating Authorizations, not 22 round-trip pairs, because the FAA Summer 2025 operator file lists Spirit with 22 LGA slots; the file covers the Summer 2025 season, was generated December 9, 2025, includes 9 named operators, and excludes FAA-held slots (FAA operator totals).

Evidence

The closest reference class is LGA/DCA slot transfers under federal competition review, not ordinary bankrupt asset sales. In the 2008 ATA bankruptcy, the FAA said ATA had 14 LGA slots and that an acquiring air carrier could stand in ATA’s shoes for allocation purposes (FAA Federal Register notice). In the Delta-US Airways slot swap, DOT required divestitures, limited eligibility to carriers with less than 5% of slots at the airport, and awarded LGA slot-pair bundles to JetBlue and WestJet even though JetBlue bid highest for all three bundles, because no carrier could win more than one LGA bundle (DOT). In the 2013 American-US Airways merger settlement, DOJ required 34 LaGuardia slots plus necessary facility rights to be divested to low-cost-carrier purchasers approved by DOJ, with preference for airlines without a large share at the airport (DOJ). In 2023, JetBlue and Frontier had already signed a deal under which Frontier would receive all Spirit holdings at LaGuardia, principally six Marine Air Terminal gates and 22 takeoff and landing slots, subject to Port Authority and FAA/DOT approvals (JetBlue/Frontier).

The current slot map makes a dominant-carrier outcome harder. The FAA Summer 2025 operator totals show 1,148 listed operated OAs; Delta and American together operated 907, or 79%, while Spirit’s package was only 22, or 1.9% (FAA operator totals).

The holder file points the same way but adds Alaska: the FAA Summer 2025 holder totals, generated December 5, 2025, list Delta with 511, American with 327, United with 94, Southwest with 57, JetBlue with 31, Spirit with 22, Alaska with 12, Frontier with 4, and WestJet with 16 historically held LGA slots (FAA holder totals). I use the operator table for market-structure pressure and the holder table to keep Alaska and WestJet/Other paths in view.

The legal frame is a real constraint. The current LGA order remains effective until October 24, 2026, maintains 71 scheduled OAs per hour, imposes an 80% use rule, allows trades and leases only with written FAA confirmation and approval, provides a lottery for withdrawn or unassigned OAs, and retires surrendered, withdrawn, or unassigned OAs in over-cap hours until the hour reaches 71 (GovInfo Federal Register PDF). FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said the former Spirit slots should go to a low-fare airline for the public good or be retired to reduce congestion (AirlineGeeks). The Port Authority says FAA runway slots alone are not enough because a buyer also needs Terminal A / Marine Air Terminal rights and must cure lease defaults; it asked for redistribution based on competition, access, and underserved markets rather than optimizing for dominant carriers (Bloomberg Law).

Frontier gets the highest probability because three independent signals line up: it is an ultra-low-cost replacement, it had the exact 2023 signed agreement for Spirit’s LGA gates and slots, and it was a tiny LGA operator in the latest FAA data (JetBlue/Frontier, FAA operator totals). I keep it below 50% because LGA is expensive, 22 OAs are only about 11 round trips, and Frontier’s management has signaled discipline around buying Spirit assets rather than a blank-check bid (The Points Guy). Southwest is the next-best listed fit because it is a low-fare carrier with LGA scale and the ATA bankruptcy precedent, though it is not an ULCC and has no public statement naming these slots (FAA Federal Register notice, The Points Guy). JetBlue has New York logic and said it is evaluating LGA opportunities, but it also cited New York airport costs, is reducing parts of its Newark/LaGuardia footprint, and carries antitrust baggage from the blocked Spirit merger (Bloomberg Law, Skift, DOJ). Other airline(s) is material because Porter said it is interested if the process is defined, and the Port Authority letter named Allegiant, Frontier, El Al, Arkia, and Etihad as airlines interested in expanding or entering its airports, though several of those are poor LGA fits because of perimeter, customs, or network limits (Bloomberg Law).

My scenario model gives 52% to a single low-cost or new-entrant winner, 30% to a split or negotiated allocation, 10% to a legacy/high-dollar sale that clears review, and 8% to retirement, delay, or no clear airline recipient before the 2028 backstop. Within those buckets I weight Frontier heavily in the low-cost paths, Southwest for financial capacity and prior LGA history, JetBlue for New York strategic value but lower regulatory fit, Other for Porter/Allegiant/Breeze/Avelo/WestJet-style split outcomes, and American mostly in the high-dollar path. The resulting marginal estimates are Frontier 49%, Southwest 26%, Other airline(s) 23%, JetBlue 19%, American 11%, United 4%, Delta 2%, and Alaska 1%.

What's non-obvious

The simple story says the highest bidder wins. That is not how I read this process. The bankruptcy court can approve a sale procedure, but the FAA still has to confirm transfers, the FAA can retire over-cap surrendered or withdrawn OAs, and the Port Authority controls the terminal facilities needed to make the slots usable (GovInfo Federal Register PDF, Bloomberg Law). A richer Delta or American bid may therefore be less valuable than a lower bid with faster regulatory and terminal certainty.

The strongest clue is the failed 2023 remedy, not any 2026 quote. Frontier already agreed to take the same Spirit LGA package, including the six Marine Air Terminal gates, and the deal was designed to preserve ultra-low-cost access in New York (JetBlue/Frontier). That does not make Frontier inevitable, because LGA costs, Terminal A obligations, and the small 22-OA scale all matter, but it makes Frontier much more likely than a generic “many airlines want LGA slots” model would imply.

Limitations

The actual qualified-bid list, stalking-horse status, slot IDs, slot times, Terminal A cure amount, and nonpublic FAA/DOT communications were not public as of June 19, 2026; final bids are due June 30 and the auction is set for July 9 (Bloomberg Law). The current LGA order expires on October 24, 2026, while this question can run until May 2, 2028, so a replacement order could alter the lottery, retirement, or transfer mechanics (GovInfo Federal Register PDF). Public reporting also mixes 22 slots, roughly 11 round trips, and occasional slot-pair language; I forecasted the recipient of usable control, not the exact final count (FAA operator totals, The Points Guy).