Which airlines will take control of the takeoff and landing slots at LaGuardia that were held by Spirit Airlines prior to their May 2026 bankruptcy?

TL;DR

Frontier Airlines is the leading outcome because it was already the named buyer for Spirit’s exact LaGuardia package in 2023 and the live regulatory signal favors another budget carrier, not a dominant LGA incumbent (JetBlue/Frontier, 2023; The Points Guy, May 28, 2026).

Context

Spirit announced on May 2, 2026 that it had started an orderly wind-down effective immediately, with flights canceled and customer service no longer available (Spirit restructuring notice, May 2, 2026). On May 28, 2026, The Points Guy reported that Spirit’s estate plans to auction 22 LaGuardia slots on July 9, 2026, that the winning bid will be chosen on a “highest and otherwise best” basis, that Spirit valued the slots at nearly $87 million in April 2026, and that bankruptcy-court approval is required before the buyer can use them (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026).

LaGuardia is one of three U.S. Level 3 slot airports, with allocations at LGA made on a continuing basis using historic slots, a two-month minimum usage rule, and FAA slot orders (FAA Level 3 airports). FAA says slot transfers are subject to prior FAA confirmation, and that holder reports reflect historically held allocations as of the report status date rather than every short-term operating change (FAA slot data page). The freshest official holder table I found is Summer 2025, generated December 5, 2025 with status date 2025; it covers 1,141 listed non-FAA LGA slots across 12 holders and lists Spirit with 22 individual slots, not 22 slot pairs (FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder totals).

Evidence

The historical backbone is small but clear. In the 2011 Delta–US Airways slot-swap remedy, DOT and FAA required 16 LaGuardia slot pairs to be sold in two eight-pair bundles, limited eligibility to carriers with under 5% of slots at the airport, and awarded the LGA bundles to JetBlue and WestJet; seven carriers bid, including Frontier, Southwest, Spirit, Allegiant, and Sun Country (DOT slot auction summary). In the 2013 American–US Airways settlement, DOJ required 34 LaGuardia slots and related facilities to be divested to low-cost carrier purchasers approved by DOJ, with preference for airlines that did not already operate a large share of slots or gates at the airport (DOJ American–US Airways settlement). In 2023, JetBlue and Frontier signed a definitive agreement to transfer all Spirit holdings at LGA to Frontier, described as six Marine Air Terminal gates and 22 takeoff and landing slots, subject to Port Authority and FAA/DOT approval (JetBlue/Frontier, June 1, 2023). That is an N=3 reference class, not a law of nature. But all three close precedents point toward low-cost or limited-incumbent buyers.

The current FAA holder map makes the same point. The table below uses individual slot authorizations, with coverage Summer 2025, status date 2025, generated December 5, 2025, excluding FAA-held slots and slots held fewer than five days (FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder totals).

Frontier gets my highest probability, 45.5%. It is the cleanest low-fare replacement for Spirit, has only 4 listed LGA slots in the FAA table, and had already negotiated for this exact package in 2023 (FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder totals; JetBlue/Frontier, June 1, 2023). The main offset is financial discipline: Frontier reported $974 million of liquidity and 183 Airbus single-aisle aircraft as of March 31, 2026, so an $87 million slot package is possible, but not free, and Frontier management has said it will be disciplined about Spirit wind-down assets (Frontier Q1 2026 results; The Points Guy, May 28, 2026).

Southwest is second at 23%. It already has usable LGA scale, it has bought LGA remedy slots before, and it has much more balance-sheet room than Frontier, with Southwest reporting $3.3 billion in cash, a $1.5 billion revolving credit line, and $1.4 billion of operating cash flow in Q1 2026 (DOJ American–US Airways settlement; Southwest Q1 2026 results). Its weakness is that it is less of a like-for-like ultra-low-cost replacement than Frontier and already held 57 listed LGA slots in the FAA table (FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder totals).

JetBlue and American are live but less clean. JetBlue has New York strategic value and only 31 listed LGA slots, but DOJ’s 2024 JetBlue–Spirit victory turned on the loss of Spirit’s ultra-low-cost fare pressure, which makes JetBlue a politically awkward replacement for Spirit even though this is only a slot purchase (FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder totals; DOJ JetBlue–Spirit termination statement). JetBlue also reported a $319 million Q1 2026 net loss and $8.435 billion of debt, though it still had $2.4 billion of liquidity (JetBlue Q1 2026 results). American has the strongest LGA operational fit and its CEO said American would be aggressive if assets became available, but American already held 327 listed LGA slots, so a direct American win would cut against the low-fare and limited-incumbent pattern (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026; FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder totals).

Other airline(s) is real at 14%. The bucket includes Porter, Air Canada, WestJet, Allegiant, Breeze, Sun Country, Avelo, or a smaller carrier in a regulator-designed reallocation. Porter is the best named dark horse because The Points Guy says it could move some New York flying from Newark to LGA after U.S. preclearance opened at Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport in March 2026, and Porter itself welcomed the opening of that preclearance facility on March 10, 2026 (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026; Porter, March 10, 2026). Delta, United, and Alaska are much lower. Delta is the largest LGA incumbent at 511 listed slots and The Points Guy says it could face an antitrust challenge if it tried to buy the slots; United has a Newark-centered New York strategy and its CEO said on May 27, 2026 that United did not expect to pursue consolidation for the foreseeable future; Alaska has little network fit for a small LGA short-haul package (FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder totals; The Points Guy, May 28, 2026; Reuters via Investing.com, May 27, 2026).

My scenario model puts 73% on one buyer taking the practical package, 17% on a split sale or later formal leases to multiple airlines, 6% on FAA/DOT recapture or pool reallocation by May 2, 2028, and 4% on no clear allocation, lasting forfeiture, litigation delay, or annulment. The single-buyer branch is high because the current court reporting describes one winner; the split branch stays material because both close LGA remedy precedents used bundles or divestiture rules to create viable competition (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026; DOT slot auction summary; DOJ American–US Airways settlement). I calculate each option as 0.73 times its single-buyer chance plus 0.17 times its split-inclusion chance plus 0.06 times its regulatory-reallocation inclusion chance; the remaining 4% gives no YES to any listed airline.

What's non-obvious

The common “highest bidder wins” story is incomplete. These are not ordinary airport leases. FAA says all slot transfers require prior FAA confirmation, and the two main modern LGA divestiture precedents were explicitly designed to add limited-incumbent or low-cost competition rather than maximize cash for the largest incumbent (FAA slot data page; DOT slot auction summary; DOJ American–US Airways settlement). That makes regulatory certainty part of bid quality. It helps Frontier and Southwest, and hurts Delta and American.

The other trap is the unit. Public coverage often speaks loosely about slot pairs, but the FAA holder table lists Spirit with 22 individual slots; The Points Guy translates that into roughly 11 to 12 daily flights because a takeoff and landing normally require separate slots (FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder totals; The Points Guy, May 28, 2026). The gates are a separate issue too: Spirit used Terminal A, but the Port Authority controls Terminal A and can reallocate its six gates as needed, so the slot buyer does not automatically inherit a turnkey Marine Air Terminal operation (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026).

Limitations

No public qualified-bidder list, bid amounts, final bid-procedure order, FAA transfer approval, or DOT competition review has been reported yet; the key current source is still May 28, 2026 reporting ahead of a planned July 9, 2026 auction (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026). The Bedford low-fare signal is reported, not a written FAA/DOT order, so a high cash bid from American, JetBlue, or another carrier could still win if regulators do not object formally (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026). The FAA holder data is also not a May 2026 real-time ledger; FAA says holder reports reflect historically held allocations as of their status date and may not include short-term changes or all marketing-carrier/operator relationships (FAA slot data page). The slot-versus-slot-pair wording could affect how many recipients count if the package is split, but it does not materially change the airline ranking, so I do not need clarification to submit the forecast.