Back to question

Forecast report

Which airlines will take control of the takeoff and landing slots at LaGuardia that were held by Spirit Airlines prior to their May 2026 bankruptcy?

GeneratedMay 25, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
ResolutionNot specified
Question typeMultiple Choice
Sources27

Forecast

Top outcome: Frontier Airlines at 60.1%. Other leading outcomes: JetBlue Airways: 32.9%; Southwest Airlines: 16.7%; American Airlines: 13.8%; Other airline(s): 12.4%.

Distribution

0%25%50%75%100%Frontier Airlines60.1%JetBlue Airways32.9%Southwest Airlines16.7%American Airlines13.8%Other airline(s)12.4%United Airlines7.7%Delta Air Lines4.9%Alaska Airlines3.4%

Analysis

TL;DR

Frontier is the best answer because the only public, asset-specific LaGuardia deal for Spirit's package already sent it to Frontier JetBlue/Frontier 2023 agreement.

Context

Spirit announced an immediate wind-down on May 2, 2026, and said all Spirit flights were canceled effective immediately SEC 8-K, filed May 4, 2026. On May 5, 2026, U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Sean Lane authorized a rapid wind-down, and AP described the sale process as covering aircraft, engines, spare parts, gates, and landing slots AP, May 5, 2026.

I found no public FAA, DOT, Port Authority, bankruptcy-court, Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, or WSJ final allocation of the former Spirit LGA slots as of May 25, 2026. The best public slot baseline is the FAA Summer 2025 holder report, published December 5, 2025, which lists Spirit with 22 LGA operating authorizations, not 22 full round-trip pairs FAA S25 LGA holder totals.

Evidence

The historical backbone points toward a smaller or low-cost carrier, not Delta, American, or United. In the Delta-US Airways slot-swap remedy, DOT and FAA required 16 LGA slot pairs to be auctioned in two bundles; only carriers with less than 5% of LGA slots were eligible, and JetBlue and WestJet won the LGA bundles DOT slot-auction summary. In the American-US Airways settlement, DOJ required 34 LGA slots and related facilities to go to approved low-cost-carrier purchasers, with preference for airlines that did not already operate a large airport share DOJ 2013 settlement. DOJ later said the LGA slots went to Southwest and Virgin America DOJ 2014 statement. That reference class is small, but it is the right one: scarce LGA access moving under federal competition oversight.

The current slot map reinforces that. The FAA Summer 2025 holder report is a one-season snapshot, status date 2025, published December 5, 2025; it excludes FAA-held slots and slots held less than five days FAA S25 LGA holder totals.

HolderLGA slots heldShare of listed held slots
Delta Air Lines51144.8%
American Airlines32728.7%
United Airlines948.2%
Southwest Airlines575.0%
Air Canada433.8%
JetBlue Airways312.7%
Spirit Airlines221.9%
WestJet161.4%
Republic Airways151.3%
Alaska Airlines121.1%
Endeavor Air90.8%
Frontier Airlines40.4%

Frontier has the strongest airline-specific evidence. In June 2023, JetBlue and Frontier signed a definitive agreement under which JetBlue would transfer all of Spirit's LGA holdings to Frontier if the JetBlue-Spirit merger closed; the package was described as six Marine Air Terminal gates and 22 takeoff and landing slots, subject to Port Authority, FAA, and DOT approval JetBlue/Frontier 2023 agreement. That deal died with the blocked merger, but it is still revealed preference. Frontier wanted exactly this package, and the parties presented Frontier as the way to preserve ultra-low-cost access at LGA.

The regulatory mechanics keep this from being a simple highest-bidder auction. The current LGA order runs through October 24, 2026; it allows leases or trades of operating authorizations for consideration, but requires written FAA confirmation before the transaction takes effect Federal Register LGA order, May 13, 2024. The same order imposes an 80% use rule over two-month reporting periods and lets the FAA withdraw unused operating authorizations Federal Register LGA order, May 13, 2024. Spirit's own liquidation analysis, filed April 6, 2026, says the LGA slots have material value but are not transferable or monetizable except in limited regulatory circumstances, and it assumed recovery only in the high case if regulators granted relief Spirit bankruptcy Doc. 933.

JetBlue is the main spoiler. It is New York-focused, has a small LGA held-slot share, and won LGA access in the 2011 remedy process DOT slot-auction summary. The negative is also specific: JetBlue's whole Spirit acquisition was blocked in January 2024 after DOJ argued the deal would mean higher fares and fewer choices DOJ JetBlue-Spirit decision statement. Spirit no longer exists, so that ruling is not a direct bar to a slot purchase. It still makes a full JetBlue win less clean than a Frontier win.

Southwest, American, United, Other, Delta, and Alaska are mostly split-sale or reallocation cases. Southwest has LGA history and was a DOJ-approved LGA recipient in 2014 DOJ 2014 statement. American can pay and has a large LGA operation, but its 28.7% held-slot share makes it a poor fit with the past competition remedies FAA S25 LGA holder totals. United has less LGA share than American but a large New York-area position through Newark, so I keep it below American. Delta already holds 44.8% of listed LGA slots, so a Delta award is the hardest to defend on competition grounds FAA S25 LGA holder totals. Other airlines matter because the prior DOT auction awarded one LGA bundle to WestJet, and a pool or lottery process could favor carriers outside the named U.S. list DOT slot-auction summary.

My process model puts 65.5% on a single-airline approved transfer, 25% on a split sale or structured bundles, 7% on FAA recall and reallocation from a pool or lottery, and 3% on no qualifying final allocation or retirement before the question deadline. Within the single-airline mode, I put Frontier first, JetBlue second, then American and Southwest. In split and pool modes, I raise Southwest, Other, American, and JetBlue because the question resolves YES for any airline that gets at least one usable pair. This yields Frontier at 60.1%, JetBlue at 32.9%, Southwest at 17%, American at 14%, Other at 12%, United at 8%, Delta at 5%, and Alaska at 3% in prose-rounded terms.

What's non-obvious

The obvious story is that the richest incumbent buys the slots. That misses the FAA layer. LGA operating authorizations are usable business assets, but the FAA order makes transfers contingent on FAA confirmation and creates a nonuse clock Federal Register LGA order, May 13, 2024. That shifts value away from a slow bankruptcy bidding war and toward a buyer that is easy for FAA, DOT, and the Port Authority to approve.

The other key point is the unit problem. Public commentary often says slot pairs, but the FAA holder file and the JetBlue/Frontier agreement point to 22 takeoff-or-landing slots, roughly 11 round trips if paired FAA S25 LGA holder totals, JetBlue/Frontier 2023 agreement. A small 11-round-trip package can support one coherent Marine Air Terminal operation. That is another reason Frontier beats a broad split, even though split outcomes remain important for option-level probabilities.

Limitations

There is no final public allocation yet. I could not verify a binding bid list, stalking-horse agreement, FAA confirmation letter, DOT order, Port Authority terminal award, or bankruptcy sale order for the LGA slots. Current bidder chatter is weak; Reuters confirms Frontier is considering Spirit assets but does not identify an LGA bid Reuters via Investing.com, May 5, 2026.

The FAA slot files are the latest public holder and operator snapshots I found, but they are December 2025-vintage Summer 2025 reports, not a May 2, 2026 shutdown ledger FAA S25 LGA holder totals. The biggest uncertainty is how market-oriented the current DOT and FAA will be. A pure bankruptcy monetization path raises JetBlue, American, and United. A competition-preserving regulatory path raises Frontier, Southwest, and Other.

Sources

  1. Domain Expert Search · mcp

    Found 5 subagent groups for 'US airline industry airport slots FAA DOT LaGuardia slot allocation bankruptcy Spirit Airlines':

  2. SEC EDGAR · mcp

    Search Results for 'Spirit Aviation Holdings'

  3. Court Listener · mcp

    Found 1 total dockets (showing 1-1):

  4. Domain Expert Research Task · mcp

    Job domain_expert_research_task_6979641eb3 done after 412878ms.

  5. spiritrestructuring.com · tool
  6. faa.gov · tool
  7. laguardiaairport.com · tool
  8. news.jetblue.com · tool
  9. document.epiq11.com · tool
  10. tpehub.com · tool
  11. document.epiq11.com · tool
  12. skift.com · tool
  13. investing.com · tool
  14. investing.com · tool
  15. aviationshop.com · tool
  16. justice.gov · tool
  17. transportation.gov · tool
  18. ir.delta.com · tool
  19. travelweekly.com · tool
  20. justice.gov · tool
  21. newsmax.com · tool
  22. faa.gov · tool
  23. transportation.gov · tool
  24. faa.gov · tool
  25. ir.flyfrontier.com · tool
  26. washingtonpost.com · tool
  27. faa.gov · tool

Question Details

Description

On May 2, 2026, Spirit Airlines ceased operations and began liquidating its assets following bankruptcy, canceling all flights and vacating facilities including its operations at LaGuardia Airport (LGA) in New York. ([opb.org](https://www.opb.org/article/2026/05/02/spirit-airlines-says-it-will-cease-operations/)) Spirit had been the sole tenant of the Marine Air Terminal at LaGuardia and held a portfolio of FAA-controlled takeoff and landing slots at this slot-constrained airport. ([en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_Air_Terminal)) In a liquidation scenario, such slots are valuable assets that may be reassigned by regulators (e.g., the FAA and U.S. Department of Transportation) or transferred/sold through bankruptcy proceedings to other airlines. This question asks which airlines will ultimately take control (through purchase, transfer, or regulatory reallocation) of the LaGuardia slot pairs that were held by Spirit Airlines immediately prior to its shutdown on May 2, 2026. The resolution will consider developments from May 2, 2026 onward until a clear, authoritative allocation of the majority of these slots has occurred.

Resolution Criteria

This question will resolve based on publicly reported final allocation(s) of Spirit Airlines' former LaGuardia (LGA) slot pairs. Primary sources for resolution will include: - Official announcements or orders from the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) or Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) - Bankruptcy court filings or rulings related to Spirit Airlines asset disposition - Confirmed reporting from major reputable news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP News, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal) Each listed airline option will be considered "true" if it is confirmed to have obtained control of at least one slot pair formerly held by Spirit at LGA, whether via purchase, lease, or regulatory reassignment. If multiple airlines acquire slots, multiple options may resolve as true. If no clear or final allocation is reported by May 2, 2028, the question will be annulled.

Fine Print

- "Control" includes ownership, long-term lease, or formal allocation of slot usage rights sufficient to operate scheduled service at LGA. - Temporary or emergency use of slots (e.g., short-term accommodation flights immediately after shutdown) does not count unless later formalized. - If a merger or acquisition results in slots being transferred indirectly (e.g., via acquisition of Spirit assets), the acquiring airline counts. - If slots are returned to a general FAA pool and later redistributed, the eventual recipient airlines count. - If an airline ceases to exist or merges before resolution, its successor entity is credited. - Options are not mutually exclusive: multiple airlines may receive portions of the slot portfolio.