Which airlines will take control of the takeoff and landing slots at LaGuardia that were held by Spirit Airlines prior to their May 2026 bankruptcy?

TL;DR

Frontier is the leading YES at 52%, because FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford has pushed for Spirit's LGA access to go to a low-fare carrier or be retired (AirlineGeeks, May 28, 2026) and Frontier already agreed in 2023 to take this exact Spirit LGA package (JetBlue/Frontier release, June 1, 2023). Southwest, Other airline(s), and JetBlue form the second tier at 25%, 20%, and 20%; all three have credible paths if regulators split Spirit's 22 individual LGA slots or choose a limited-incumbent buyer (FAA Summer 2025 LGA operator totals, generated Dec. 9, 2025). American is a live cash-bid risk at 12%, while Delta, United, and Alaska sit near the floor because the official LGA slot data shows Delta and American as concentrated incumbents and the current policy signal favors low-fare competition (FAA Summer 2025 LGA operator totals).

Context

Spirit's restructuring site says Spirit began an orderly wind-down on May 2, 2026, cancelled all flights, and ended customer service (Spirit restructuring notice, May 2, 2026). The best official slot-count source is FAA Summer 2025 data, where the unit is individual LGA Operating Authorizations, or slots; the operator report generated on Dec. 9, 2025 lists Spirit with 22 LGA slots, not 22 daily round-trip pairs, and excludes FAA-held slots and slots held less than five days (FAA Summer 2025 LGA operator totals).

The process was still open on June 21, 2026. Bloomberg Law reported on June 17 that bids were due June 30 and the auction was set for July 9, with Spirit's lawyers warning that regulatory complexity made the slots' value, estimated near $86.7 million, hard to predict (Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026). The bankruptcy court can approve a sale, but the FAA must approve durable LGA slot transfers in writing and the Port Authority controls airport facilities, including the former Spirit Terminal A / Marine Air Terminal problem (Federal Register LGA order, May 13, 2024; The Points Guy, June 9, 2026).

Evidence

The historical backbone points toward low-cost or limited-incumbent recipients, not a pure highest-dollar award to the largest LGA carriers.

The current slot base strengthens the same conclusion. The FAA Summer 2025 operator report is a cross-section, not a time series; its coverage window is the Summer 2025 LGA season, its vintage is Dec. 9, 2025 at 07:56, and its unit is individual slots / Operating Authorizations (FAA Summer 2025 LGA operator totals).

The FAA order gives regulators real leverage. The May 13, 2024 LGA order runs through Oct. 24, 2026, keeps the 71 scheduled-operation hourly limit, requires 80% use over two-month reporting periods, assigns OAs only to certificated U.S. or foreign air carriers, lets carriers trade or lease OAs for consideration, and requires FAA written confirmation before a transfer is effective (Federal Register LGA order). The same order lets FAA retire surrendered, withdrawn, or unassigned OAs while an affected hour remains above the 71-per-hour limit, which makes Bedford's low-fare-or-retire statement credible rather than symbolic (Federal Register LGA order; AirlineGeeks, May 28, 2026).

Carrier-specific signals also put Frontier first. Frontier had the 2023 agreement for the same six gates and 22 slots, and Aviation Week's OAG-based analysis of 339 former Spirit routes said Frontier added about 1.3 million seats year over year for June-August 2026, lifting its share on those former Spirit markets from 5.6% to 10.4% (JetBlue/Frontier release; Aviation Week, June 16, 2026). Southwest has direct ATA precedent and enough LGA scale to use the slots, but it is less clean as an ultra-low-cost replacement than Frontier and has not shown the same Spirit-network push (Travel Weekly, Nov. 19, 2008; Aviation Week, June 16, 2026).

JetBlue is plausible but conflicted. Bloomberg Law reported that JetBlue was evaluating LGA opportunities while mindful of New York-area costs, while Reuters reported on June 17 that JetBlue planned to scale back Newark and LaGuardia bases as it focused on Fort Lauderdale (Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026; Reuters via Investing.com, June 17, 2026). American can pay and The Points Guy quoted CEO Robert Isom saying American has a history of being aggressive when assets become available, but the same report said leading candidates were American, Frontier, JetBlue, and Southwest and that Delta could face an antitrust challenge because it is the largest LGA carrier (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026). Porter is the main Other path because Bloomberg Law reported Porter was interested in more LGA slots, contingent on the allocation process being defined, and because the FAA operator report lists Porter with only six LGA slots (Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026; FAA Summer 2025 LGA operator totals).

I converted this into a scenario model. I put 58% on a one-buyer sale to a low-fare or limited-incumbent carrier, because the package is only 22 individual slots and the Terminal A facility issue favors one coherent operator (FAA Summer 2025 LGA operator totals; The Points Guy, June 9, 2026). I put 25% on a split or bundled allocation, because the 2011 and 2013 precedents split LGA access to protect competition (DOT 2011 auction summary; DOJ settlement, Nov. 12, 2013). I put 8% on a cash-maximizing outcome where a legacy or higher-dollar bidder clears, and 9% on retirement, litigation, or no clear final allocation before the May 2, 2028 annulment date. Weighting carrier chances inside those regimes gives Frontier 52%, Southwest 25%, Other airline(s) 20%, JetBlue 20%, American 12%, United 3%, Delta 1%, and Alaska 1%. The probabilities sum above 100% because a split award can make several options resolve YES.

What's non-obvious

The obvious frame is that the highest bidder buys the slots. The better frame is that the highest bidder that can close through FAA, DOT, the Port Authority, and the bankruptcy court wins. FAA written approval is required before a lease or trade becomes effective, the FAA can retire unused OAs above the 71-per-hour cap, and the Port Authority told the bankruptcy court that runway slots have little practical value without airport-facility permission (Federal Register LGA order; The Points Guy, June 9, 2026). That is why Frontier beats American in my forecast even though American can likely bid more dollars.

The other hidden point is the unit count. The question uses slot-pair language, but FAA data and current reporting point to 22 individual slots, roughly 11 usable daily round trips if paired, rather than 22 round trips (FAA Summer 2025 LGA operator totals; The Points Guy, May 28, 2026). A smaller package raises the chance of one buyer, but it still leaves room for Other airline(s) to resolve YES if regulators split off even one workable pair to Porter, Breeze, Allegiant, WestJet, or another limited entrant.

Limitations

The main missing evidence is the bidder list. As of June 21, 2026, I found no public qualified-bidder list, no bid amounts, no stalking-horse agreement, no winning bidder, no final bankruptcy sale order, no FAA/DOT transfer confirmation, and no Port Authority facility agreement; this is expected because final bids were still due June 30 and the auction was still set for July 9 (Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026).

The key official slot data is not a post-shutdown ledger. The best FAA numbers are Summer 2025 reports generated in December 2025, with a status date of 2025 and exclusions for FAA-held slots and slots held less than five days, so they may not capture any late lease or operational changes immediately before Spirit stopped flying on May 2, 2026 (FAA Summer 2025 LGA operator totals; FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder totals).

Bedford's low-fare statement is a strong policy signal, not a final order (AirlineGeeks, May 28, 2026). If Frontier and Southwest bid too low, if American offers a much cleaner terminal and cash package, or if FAA/DOT decide their legal discretion is narrower than their public posture suggests, American rises sharply and Frontier falls. If FAA/DOT enforce the low-fare-or-retire line strictly, the legacy carriers fall toward zero and the no-allocation tail rises.