Which airlines will take control of the takeoff and landing slots at LaGuardia that were held by Spirit Airlines prior to their May 2026 bankruptcy?

TL;DR

Frontier is the best single answer: regulators want a low-fare replacement for Spirit at LaGuardia, and Frontier already agreed once to take this exact Spirit LGA package.

Context

Spirit announced on May 2, 2026 that it had started an immediate wind-down and cancelled all flights, after concluding it had no funding left to keep operating (Spirit wind-down statement, May 2, 2026). The LGA asset is still unallocated: Spirit held 22 LGA slots, valued near $87 million in April, and the estate is seeking a July 9 auction with court approval before any winning airline can use the slots (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026).

This is not a normal estate sale. The current FAA LGA order, published May 13, 2024, caps scheduled operations at 71 per hour, requires 80% use over two-month reporting periods, allows trades or leases only after written FAA confirmation, and lets FAA retire surrendered or withdrawn authorizations while hours are above the 71-operation limit (Federal Register, May 13, 2024). FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford then said on May 28, 2026 that FAA/DOT support would be strongest if the slots go to a low-fare airline, and that retirement is an option if they do not (AirlineGeeks, May 28, 2026).

Evidence

The close reference class is small, N=3, but it points the same way. In 2011, the Delta-US Airways LGA/DCA slot-swap remedy sent eight LGA slot pairs to JetBlue and eight to WestJet; only carriers with under 5% of LGA or DCA slots could bid, and DOT said the bundles were designed to create meaningful new competition (Travel Weekly, Dec. 1, 2011). In 2013, DOJ required American and US Airways to divest 34 LGA slots to DOJ-approved low-cost carrier purchasers, with preference for airlines that did not already hold a large share at the airport (DOJ, Nov. 12, 2013). In 2023, the exact Spirit LGA package had a named recipient: JetBlue and Frontier signed a definitive agreement for Frontier to receive all Spirit LGA holdings, mainly six Marine Air Terminal gates and 22 takeoff and landing slots, subject to Port Authority and FAA/DOT approval (JetBlue/Frontier, June 1, 2023). That failed because the JetBlue-Spirit merger failed, not because Frontier ceased to be a fit (DOJ, Mar. 4, 2024).

The latest FAA holder report I found is Summer 2025, report timestamp Dec. 5, 2025, status date 2025 current/future; the unit is individual LGA slots or operating authorizations, N=12 listed holders, excluding FAA-held slots and holdings under five days (FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder totals). It is not a post-bankruptcy allocation file, but it shows the regulatory concentration problem.

The bankruptcy process still gives the richer airlines a chance. The sale standard is the highest-and-otherwise-best offer, and TPG names American, Frontier, JetBlue and Southwest as leading candidates while naming Porter as a dark horse; TPG also reports that the Port Authority controls Terminal A gates and can reallocate them, so slots and gates can be separated (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026). American's CEO has said American would be aggressive if assets become available, while Frontier's CEO said Frontier would look at Spirit wind-down assets but stay disciplined (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026). That is why I do not put Frontier above 50%.

My model puts about 78% on a single-airline allocation, 16% on a split allocation, and 7% on no counted airline by May 2, 2028 through retirement, litigation, or no final allocation. In the single-airline case, Frontier has just under half of the mass; in the split case, Frontier, Southwest, Other, JetBlue and American are the main possible inclusions. The formula is: P_i = P(single) * P_i(single) + P(split) * P_i(in split). The resulting marginal YES probabilities are Frontier 48%, Southwest 26%, American 14%, Other 13%, JetBlue 13%, United 4%, Delta 1%, and Alaska 1%.

What's non-obvious

The highest-bid story misses the closing-risk story. The proposed bankruptcy calendar has LGA slot indications and stalking-horse bids due June 10, final bids due June 30, a July 9 auction, and regulatory approvals expected by July 17 (Stretto summary of Docket 1117, June 1, 2026). A high bid from American or United is less valuable if it creates FAA/DOT resistance, because FAA confirmation is needed for LGA slot trades and the FAA has a live retirement mechanism under the current order (Federal Register, May 13, 2024).

The Frontier edge is also stronger than normal bidder speculation. Frontier was not merely named by reporters; in 2023 it had a signed agreement to take all of Spirit's LGA holdings and had already framed the deal as preserving ultra-low-cost access at LaGuardia (JetBlue/Frontier, June 1, 2023). That gives Frontier a ready regulatory story, even if Southwest or American can pay more.

Limitations

The main missing data is the actual bid list. As of this forecast, no public source I found identifies a qualified bidder, stalking horse, bid amount, or final court-approved purchaser; public reporting says no airline executive has explicitly said it wants these exact LGA slots (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026). One serious stalking-horse bid from Frontier, Southwest, American, JetBlue, or Porter would move the forecast quickly.

The unit language is messy. FAA and TPG describe the asset as 22 individual slots, not 22 slot pairs, and TPG converts that to roughly 12 daily flights because airlines need separate takeoff and landing rights (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026; FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder totals). I treat the resolution as asking which airline gets control of at least one usable former-Spirit LGA round-trip-equivalent. If FAA formally retires the authorizations, I do not count that as Other airline(s), because the option is an airline recipient, not a non-airline outcome.