Which airlines will take control of the takeoff and landing slots at LaGuardia that were held by Spirit Airlines prior to their May 2026 bankruptcy?

TL;DR

Frontier Airlines is the clear lead at 56%, because it is the best regulatory substitute for Spirit and was already the named recipient for the same LaGuardia package in the failed JetBlue-Spirit remedy. Southwest, JetBlue, and Other airline(s) are the main secondary paths, mostly through a split award or a low-fare compromise. American, United, Delta, and Alaska are low because FAA/DOT and Port Authority signals point away from adding scarce LaGuardia access to incumbent network carriers.

Context

Spirit announced on May 2, 2026 that it had begun an immediate wind-down and that all flights were cancelled (Spirit restructuring release, May 2, 2026). As of June 22, 2026, I found no FAA/DOT order, bankruptcy sale order, or major-news report confirming a final transfer; the live process is still an auction and approval process, with final bids due June 30 and an auction set for July 9 (Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026).

The package is smaller than the wording “slot pairs” implies. FAA Summer 2025 holder data, generated December 5, 2025, lists Spirit with 22 individual LGA operating authorizations, not 22 pairs; each authorization is one takeoff or landing right, so the package is roughly 11 daily round trips if times can be paired (FAA Summer 2025 LGA Holder Totals, FAA Summer 2025 LGA Holder Details). I forecast control of any part of that official 22-authorization package.

Evidence

The historical backbone is regulator-shaped divestiture, not a simple highest-bidder auction. In the Delta-US Airways LGA/DCA slot-swap remedy, DOT and FAA required divestitures; JetBlue paid $32.0 million for eight LGA slot pairs, WestJet paid $17.6 million for eight LGA slot pairs, only carriers with under 5% of the relevant airport’s slots could bid, and no carrier could acquire both LGA bundles (DOT, August 1, 2019 archive of 2011 slot auction). In the American-US Airways merger settlement, DOJ required divestiture of 34 LaGuardia slots plus supporting facilities to low-cost carriers, with preference for airlines that did not already operate a large share of airport slots or gates (DOJ, November 12, 2013). A bankruptcy precedent also exists: after ATA failed, the FAA said an acquiring air carrier could stand in ATA’s shoes and receive ATA’s 14 LGA slots, and Southwest later bought the assets to enter LaGuardia (Federal Register, October 31, 2008, Travel Weekly, November 19, 2008).

The closest analogue points to Frontier. On June 1, 2023, JetBlue and Frontier announced that, if the JetBlue-Spirit merger closed, JetBlue would transfer all of Spirit’s LGA holdings to Frontier, mainly six Marine Air Terminal gates and 22 takeoff and landing slots, subject to Port Authority and FAA/DOT approval (JetBlue/Frontier release, June 1, 2023). That deal died with the blocked merger, but it is revealed preference about the exact asset package and the exact competition issue.

Current regulator signals also favor a low-fare buyer. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said the former Spirit LGA slots should go to another low-fare airline for the public good, and that if such a transfer cannot be done the slots could be retired to reduce congestion (AirlineGeeks, May 28, 2026). The current LGA order, extended through October 24, 2026, maintains 71 scheduled operating authorizations per hour, imposes an 80% use rule, allows trades and leases for consideration, and provides mechanisms for withdrawal, lottery reallocation, or non-reallocation of returned slots above the 71-per-hour level (Federal Register, May 13, 2024). Reuters reported on June 18, 2026 that the FAA has now extended JFK and LGA flight limits through late October 2028 and cited limited runway capacity and high demand at LaGuardia, which makes retirement or non-reallocation more credible than usual (Reuters via Investing.com, June 18, 2026).

The slot-concentration numbers explain why Delta and American are weak despite high willingness to pay. FAA Summer 2025 operator totals, generated December 9, 2025, list 1,148 LGA operator slots excluding FAA-held and under-five-day holdings; Delta operated 580, American 327, Southwest 70, United 67, Air Canada 35, JetBlue 31, Spirit 22, Frontier 10, and Porter 6 (FAA Summer 2025 LGA Operator Totals). On holder counts, transferring all 22 Spirit authorizations to Delta would raise the LGA HHI by about 173 points, to American by about 111, to United by about 32, to Southwest by about 19, to JetBlue by about 10, and to Frontier by about 1; I treat that as a direct measure of regulatory friction, not a legal cutoff.

The current sale process creates real uncertainty. Bloomberg Law reported that Spirit’s estate is under pressure to recover value for creditors, that the slots were estimated at up to $86.7 million, and that Spirit counsel warned at a June 10 court hearing there is a nontrivial risk the value is zero if the regulatory maze cannot be solved (Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026). The Port Authority told the bankruptcy court that a slot buyer also needs airport-facility permission and may need to take over Spirit’s Terminal A / Marine Air Terminal lease and cure defaults; it warned that moving the flying into Terminals B or C would create crowding and reduce Terminal A rent (Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026, The Points Guy, June 9, 2026). That favors a single carrier that can make a Terminal A and low-fare story work, but it also raises the chance of a split, a lower price, or delay.

Frontier gets the top probability because it checks the most boxes: it is the closest Spirit-like ULCC substitute, it had only 10 operated LGA authorizations in the FAA Summer 2025 operator data, it was the prior named remedy buyer for the exact package, and Aviation Week’s OAG-based analysis says Frontier has added the most capacity in former Spirit markets after the shutdown (FAA Summer 2025 LGA Operator Totals, JetBlue/Frontier release, June 1, 2023, Aviation Week, June 16, 2026). Southwest is second because it is low-fare, large enough to absorb the slots, and has the ATA precedent, but it is less Spirit-like and already has a larger LGA footprint (FAA Summer 2025 LGA Operator Totals, Federal Register, October 31, 2008). JetBlue is live because it is New York-focused and said it is evaluating LGA opportunities, but the blocked Spirit merger and failed Northeast Alliance make it a less clean regulatory answer than Frontier or Southwest (Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026, DOJ, January 16, 2024).

Other airline(s) is not just residual noise. Porter already had six LGA slots in the FAA Summer 2025 operator data and told Bloomberg Law it is interested in more if the allocation process is defined; Allegiant, Breeze, Avelo, Sun Country, WestJet, or another small carrier could also receive a few authorizations if the package is split or reallocated (FAA Summer 2025 LGA Operator Totals, Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026). American is the main legacy threat because CEO Robert Isom said American would be aggressive if assets became available, but American is already the second-largest LGA operator and does not fit the low-fare signal (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026, FAA Summer 2025 LGA Operator Totals). United, Delta, and Alaska have weaker combinations of policy fit, network need, and surfaced interest; Delta is especially constrained by its 580 operated LGA slots in the FAA Summer 2025 data (FAA Summer 2025 LGA Operator Totals).

My scenario model assigns 36% to a mostly intact Frontier win, 13% to a mostly intact Southwest win, 8% to a mostly intact JetBlue win, 5% to a mostly intact other low-fare/new-entrant win, 8% to a legacy-led or legacy-including outcome, 23% to a split low-fare/new-entrant allocation, 3% to a formal mixed lottery or compromise split, and 4% to retirement, litigation delay, or no qualifying final allocation before the resolution deadline. Within the split cases, I give Frontier the highest conditional chance, then Southwest and JetBlue, with Other close behind because a single slot pair is enough for a YES. That arithmetic gives Frontier 56%, Southwest 28%, JetBlue 23%, Other 20%, American 12%, United 5%, Delta 3%, and Alaska 1%.

What's non-obvious

The obvious story is “the highest bidder wins.” That is wrong. The bankruptcy court can approve a sale, but FAA confirmation, DOT competition policy, and Port Authority facility control decide whether the buyer can actually use the authorizations; FAA’s own slot page says transfers are subject to prior FAA confirmation, and the Port Authority says slots alone have no practical value without airport-facility permission (FAA Slot Administration data page, The Points Guy, June 9, 2026). A lower cash bid from a low-fare carrier can therefore be the “best” bid if it is the only one that closes.

The other overlooked point is the exact 2023 Frontier remedy. Frontier is not just a generic ULCC candidate. It already signed a deal for Spirit’s LGA holdings, including the six Marine Air Terminal gates and 22 slots, and the public rationale then was the same as the FAA’s current rationale now: preserve ultra-low-cost access at LaGuardia (JetBlue/Frontier release, June 1, 2023, AirlineGeeks, May 28, 2026). That is the single strongest reason Frontier sits above Southwest and JetBlue.

Limitations

No public bid list, stalking-horse bidder, winning bidder, FAA confirmation, DOT order, or final Port Authority accommodation was available by June 22, 2026. The next decisive facts are the June 30 bid list, the July 9 auction result, the bankruptcy sale order, and written FAA/airport approvals; any one of those could move the forecast sharply (Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026).

The biggest wording risk is “slot pairs.” The best official FAA data show 22 individual operating authorizations, while some secondary coverage uses looser slot-pair language; if the resolver treats a larger package as the relevant asset, a single lead-buyer outcome becomes more likely and split outcomes become less likely (FAA Summer 2025 LGA Holder Details). A second gap is retirement: if the FAA retires the operating authorizations or the fight lasts past May 2, 2028, all airline options could resolve NO or the question could annul, rather than “Other airline(s)” resolving YES (AirlineGeeks, May 28, 2026).