Which airlines will take control of the takeoff and landing slots at LaGuardia that were held by Spirit Airlines prior to their May 2026 bankruptcy?

TL;DR

Frontier is the best answer; JetBlue, American, Southwest, and an Other-airline split are the only serious secondary ways this resolves.

Context

Spirit announced on May 2, 2026 that it had started an immediate wind-down, canceled all flights, and had no further funding path after higher oil prices and business pressures broke its restructuring plan (Spirit May 2 statement). On May 5, 2026, the bankruptcy court authorized a rapid wind-down and asset sales, including gates and landing slots (AP via Washington Post, May 5, 2026).

The LGA package is small but valuable. Spirit's 2025 Form 10-K, filed March 16, 2026 for fiscal year 2025, recorded $83.5 million of indefinite-lived intangible assets tied to its LGA landing and takeoff rights, and the FAA Summer 2025 holder report generated December 5, 2025 showed Spirit with 22 individual LGA operating authorizations (Spirit 2025 Form 10-K; FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder totals). I found no final public FAA/DOT order, bankruptcy sale order, or major-wire report naming a recipient as of May 27, 2026, so this is still a forecast rather than a detected result.

Evidence

The historical backbone points toward a low-cost or limited-incumbent carrier, not the largest LGA incumbents. The closest cases all involved regulators using scarce LGA access to preserve or expand competition.

The latest FAA holder data is also pro-Frontier. The FAA page says holder reports reflect historically held allocations, the status date reflects FAA-confirmed slot transactions, and transfers are subject to prior FAA confirmation (FAA slot data page). The Summer 2025 holder totals, generated December 5, 2025 with FAA-held slots and slots held under five days excluded, list 1,141 regular holder slots by my sum (FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder totals).

The legal process is not a simple auction. The current LGA order, extended by the FAA on May 13, 2024 through October 24, 2026, keeps a 71 scheduled-operation-per-hour limit, imposes an 80% two-month usage rule, lets carriers lease or trade operating authorizations for consideration only with prior written FAA approval, and lets FAA decide whether withdrawn, surrendered, or unassigned authorizations should be reallocated by lottery (Federal Register LGA order). That same order says FAA will retire surrendered, withdrawn, or unassigned authorizations in hours above 71 until the hourly total reaches 71, which raises the chance that regulators, not creditors alone, shape the outcome (Federal Register LGA order). A July 23, 2025 FAA staffing waiver gives JFK/LGA slot-usage relief through the Summer 2026 season, which buys time but does not remove the need for an FAA-confirmed endpoint (FAA waiver notice).

The bankruptcy record cuts the same way. Spirit's April 6, 2026 liquidation analysis valued the LGA slot asset at $86.746 million, assigned zero low-case recovery and 80% high-case recovery, and said the slots have material value but are not transferable or monetizable except in limited circumstances that the debtors said were unlikely in a Chapter 7 proceeding (Spirit bankruptcy Doc. 933). I read that as lowering pure highest-bidder outcomes and raising the importance of a buyer that FAA/DOT can defend as competition-preserving.

The commercial evidence also favors Frontier and JetBlue over the legacy carriers. Travel Weekly reported on May 12, 2026, citing Ailevon Pacific analysis, that six carriers had announced new service or capacity on 57 former Spirit routes; Frontier was increasing or adding the broadest set, JetBlue was concentrated on former Spirit Fort Lauderdale routes, and United, Delta, and Southwest were making more limited moves (Travel Weekly, May 12, 2026). Frontier is not balance-sheet rich, but it is credible for a package of this size: it reported $974 million of total liquidity and a 183-aircraft Airbus fleet as of March 31, 2026 (Frontier Q1 2026 release). JetBlue can also bid: it reported $2.4 billion of liquidity, excluding a $600 million undrawn revolver, and more than $6.0 billion of unencumbered assets as of March 31, 2026 (JetBlue Q1 2026 release).

My scenario model uses four paths. I put 57% on a regulated single-package sale or long lease, 24% on a split sale or split lease, 16% on FAA pool or lottery-style reallocation, and 3% on no clear allocation before the May 2, 2028 annulment date. In the single-package path, I give Frontier 55%, JetBlue 18%, American 13%, Southwest 5%, Other 5%, United 2.5%, Delta 1%, and Alaska 0.5%. In split and FAA paths, I give Frontier the highest inclusion rate but keep Southwest and Other meaningful because prior slot remedies have used bundles and new-entrant logic. The resulting YES probabilities are Frontier 58.6%, JetBlue 30%, American 20%, Southwest 14%, Other 14%, United 7%, Alaska 4%, and Delta 3%.

What's non-obvious

The obvious read is that JetBlue wanted Spirit, so JetBlue gets Spirit's LGA slots. The better read is that JetBlue had already agreed not to keep this exact LGA package: the June 2023 remedy sent all Spirit LGA holdings, including the six Marine Air Terminal gates and 22 slots, to Frontier to preserve ultra-low-cost access at LaGuardia (JetBlue/Frontier release). That is the strongest single clue in the record.

The other missed point is that this question asks whether each airline gets at least one slot pair. That makes split outcomes matter. Frontier is the favorite for the block, but a split or FAA reallocation can easily make JetBlue, American, Southwest, or an Other carrier true as well. Delta is low not because it lacks use for LGA slots, but because giving more scarce LGA access to the carrier already holding 44.8% of listed regular holder slots is the hardest public-interest story to defend (FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder totals).

Limitations

The biggest gap is the absence of a final public allocation. A sealed bid, lender agreement, Port Authority term sheet, or FAA pre-clearance letter could exist without being visible in public search results. If a stalking-horse or winning bidder is later disclosed, these probabilities should move sharply toward that airline.

The second gap is terminology. The FAA holder report and Spirit's 10-K point to 22 individual LGA operating authorizations, while some airline and press language uses slot-pair wording for the package (FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder totals; Spirit 2025 Form 10-K). If the resolver treats the package as 22 pairs rather than 22 individual slots, split outcomes become more likely, but the rank order should not change.

The third gap is policy discretion. The FAA can confirm transfers, withdraw unused authorizations, retire slots above the 71-per-hour target, or reallocate available authorizations by lottery under the current order (Federal Register LGA order). That discretion is why Frontier is below 60% despite being the strongest answer, and why Other airline(s) stays in the mid-teens rather than near zero.