Which airlines will take control of the takeoff and landing slots at LaGuardia that were held by Spirit Airlines prior to their May 2026 bankruptcy?

TL;DR

Frontier is the leading outcome because the FAA publicly pointed Spirit’s former LaGuardia slots toward a low-fare carrier and Frontier already signed a 2023 agreement for this exact Spirit LGA package (AirlineGeeks, May 28, 2026 (airlinegeeks.com); JetBlue/Frontier, June 1, 2023 (news.jetblue.com)). JetBlue, Southwest, American, and Other remain live because Spirit’s estate is running a highest-and-best bankruptcy sale and Bloomberg Law reports the slots could be split among carriers (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026 (thepointsguy.com); Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026 (news.bloomberglaw.com)). Delta, United, and Alaska are long shots because the regulatory and airport-owner incentives point away from giving scarce LGA capacity to larger incumbents or carriers without a clear Terminal A operating plan (FAA holder totals, status Dec. 5, 2025 (faa.gov); Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026 (news.bloomberglaw.com)).

Context

Spirit announced on May 2, 2026 that it had started an orderly wind-down, canceled all flights, and told customers not to go to airports (Spirit statement, May 2, 2026 (spiritrestructuring.com)). The relevant sale is in Spirit Aviation Holdings, Inc., Case No. 25-11897 before Judge Sean H. Lane in the Southern District of New York; Spirit’s May 27, 2026 bidding-procedures motion put the LaGuardia slots on an early sale track, with non-campus assets auctioned on July 9, 2026 if needed (Spirit Doc. 1117, filed May 27, 2026 (documents.elevenflo.com)).

The slot asset is scarce but not huge. The FAA Summer 2025 holder totals, with status timestamp Dec. 5, 2025 at 07:59 and excluding FAA-held slots and slots held fewer than five days per week, list Spirit with 22 LGA operating authorizations; 22 individual slots are roughly 11 round trips if arrivals and departures can be paired cleanly (FAA holder totals, status Dec. 5, 2025 (faa.gov); The Points Guy, May 28, 2026 (thepointsguy.com)). I found no public successful-bidder notice, FAA transfer confirmation, DOT order, or final allocation report before the July 3, 2026 forecast time.

Evidence

The historical reference class is small but clear. I use three direct LGA slot-transfer analogues, with N=3: ATA’s 2008 bankruptcy sale, the 2011 Delta-US Airways slot-swap divestiture, and the 2013 American-US Airways merger remedy. In 2008, Southwest agreed to pay $7.5 million for 14 ATA LGA slots after ATA ceased operations, and the report said Southwest still had to work with the FAA and Port Authority for gates and facilities (Travel Weekly, Nov. 19, 2008 (travelweekly.com)). In the 2011 Delta-US Airways slot swap, DOT/FAA required divestitures, limited bidding to carriers with less than 5% of slots at the airport, and JetBlue and WestJet won the LGA bundles (DOT, Aug. 1, 2019 (transportation.gov); Travel Weekly, Dec. 1, 2011 (travelweekly.com)). In the 2013 American-US Airways settlement, DOJ required 34 LGA slots plus supporting facility rights to be transferred to low-cost carrier purchasers, with preference for carriers that did not already operate a large share of slots or gates (DOJ, Nov. 12, 2013 (justice.gov)). The base rate points toward a low-fare or limited-incumbent buyer, not Delta or American.

The latest FAA holder table before Spirit’s shutdown puts the concentration problem in numbers. Units are individual slots, the coverage window is Summer 2025, and the vintage is the FAA file status date of Dec. 5, 2025 (FAA holder totals, status Dec. 5, 2025 (faa.gov)).

The current FAA order gives the regulator real leverage. On June 23, 2026, the FAA extended the LGA operating-limitations order until Oct. 28, 2028; the order keeps 71 scheduled operating authorizations per hour, requires FAA written approval for trades and leases, and lets FAA retire surrendered, withdrawn, or unassigned authorizations until the relevant hour falls to 71 (Federal Register, June 23, 2026 (regulations.justia.com)). FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford then gave a strong policy signal by saying Spirit’s former LGA slots should go to another low-fare airline for the public good or be retired to reduce congestion (AirlineGeeks, May 28, 2026 (airlinegeeks.com)).

The Port Authority is the second veto point. It objected that LGA slots are not a simple transferable contract right, said the slots have no value without permission to use airport facilities, and told the court that a buyer also needs a workable Terminal A plan (Bloomberg Law, June 4, 2026 (news.bloomberglaw.com); Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026 (news.bloomberglaw.com)). Bloomberg Law reported that the Port Authority wants redistribution based on competition, access, and underserved markets, and that it views moving the flights away from the Marine Air Terminal as a crowding and revenue problem (Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026 (news.bloomberglaw.com)). That helps one-carrier Terminal A solutions and hurts bids that only solve the runway slot piece.

Frontier has the best airline-specific signal. JetBlue and Frontier announced on June 1, 2023 that JetBlue would transfer all of Spirit’s LGA holdings to Frontier if the JetBlue-Spirit merger closed, principally six Marine Air Terminal gates and 22 takeoff and landing slots (JetBlue/Frontier, June 1, 2023 (news.jetblue.com)). That deal died with the blocked merger, but it is revealed preference: Frontier wanted this exact package, and the package was already framed as preserving low-cost access at LGA. Frontier also moved quickly after Spirit’s shutdown, saying on May 2, 2026 that it served more than 100 routes previously flown by Spirit and would add nine routes plus 15 daily flights across 18 former Spirit markets (Frontier, May 2, 2026 (news.flyfrontier.com)). The main weakness is price discipline; TPG reported Frontier’s CEO said the carrier would look at wind-down assets but be disciplined (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026 (thepointsguy.com)).

JetBlue, Southwest, American, and Other are the live alternatives. JetBlue told Bloomberg Law it was evaluating potential LGA opportunities while noting high New York-area operating costs, and Reuters reported through Investing.com on June 17, 2026 that JetBlue planned to scale back Newark and LaGuardia support operations this fall (Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026 (news.bloomberglaw.com); Reuters via Investing.com, June 17, 2026 (investing.com)). Southwest fits the low-fare policy story and has the ATA precedent, but it already had 57 LGA slots in the FAA holder table and no direct public signal for this package (FAA holder totals, status Dec. 5, 2025 (faa.gov); Travel Weekly, Nov. 19, 2008 (travelweekly.com)). American has money and motive, and TPG reported that American’s CEO said the carrier would be aggressive if assets became available, but American’s 327-slot LGA position makes it a worse public-interest fit than Frontier, JetBlue, Southwest, or a new entrant (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026 (thepointsguy.com); FAA holder totals, status Dec. 5, 2025 (faa.gov)). Other is material because Bloomberg Law reported that Porter was interested in more LGA slots and that the Port Authority named Allegiant, Frontier, El Al, Arkia, and Etihad as airlines interested in expanding or entering its airport markets (Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026 (news.bloomberglaw.com)).

I used a scenario model. I put 66% on one buyer taking the package, 20% on a split among multiple recipients, 9% on an FAA/Port Authority reallocation or compromise after the sale process is reshaped, and 5% on retirement, no final allocation, or annulment by May 2, 2028. In the one-buyer branch I give Frontier 52%, JetBlue 13%, Southwest 12%, American 11%, Other 8%, United 2%, Delta 1.5%, and Alaska below 1%. In the split and regulatory branches I assign at-least-one-slot chances based on low-fare fit, existing LGA concentration, Terminal A fit, and public signals. This gives Frontier 54%, Other 23%, JetBlue 22%, Southwest 20%, American 16%, United 4%, Delta 3%, and Alaska 2%.

What's non-obvious

The obvious read is that the estate sells to the highest cash bidder. The better read is that the best bid must be executable. Spirit’s own sale process uses a highest-and-best frame, while the FAA must confirm slot trades or leases and the Port Authority controls the facilities needed to use the slots (The Points Guy, May 28, 2026 (thepointsguy.com); Federal Register, June 23, 2026 (regulations.justia.com); Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026 (news.bloomberglaw.com)). That is why Frontier outranks American in my forecast even though American could plausibly write a larger check.

The unit ambiguity matters. FAA holder records list 22 individual operating authorizations, while some public descriptions loosely say 22 slots or slot pairs; TPG translated 22 slots into roughly 12 daily flights, and the 2023 JetBlue-Frontier release described 22 takeoff and landing slots plus six gates (FAA holder totals, status Dec. 5, 2025 (faa.gov); The Points Guy, May 28, 2026 (thepointsguy.com); JetBlue/Frontier, June 1, 2023 (news.jetblue.com)). A portfolio of about 11 to 12 daily round trips is small enough for one low-fare carrier to absorb, but large enough that a split outcome can still give several options a YES.

Limitations

The largest missing fact is the bid list. The June 30, 2026 final-bid deadline had passed by the forecast time, but the July 9, 2026 auction had not yet occurred and I found no public qualified-bid list, stalking-horse notice, successful-bidder notice, FAA transfer confirmation, or DOT allocation order (Spirit Doc. 1117, filed May 27, 2026 (documents.elevenflo.com); Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026 (news.bloomberglaw.com)).

The FAA table is the best public control baseline I could verify, but it is not a July 2026 real-time registry; the file’s coverage is Summer 2025, the status timestamp is Dec. 5, 2025, it excludes FAA-held slots and slots held fewer than five days per week, and the FAA data page says holder reports do not capture ad hoc schedule adjustments or all short-term changes (FAA holder totals, status Dec. 5, 2025 (faa.gov); FAA data page (faa.gov)). The no-allocation tail is also real: Bedford publicly raised retirement if the slots do not go to a suitable low-fare carrier, and the question annuls if no clear final allocation is reported by May 2, 2028 (AirlineGeeks, May 28, 2026 (airlinegeeks.com)).