Which airlines will take control of the takeoff and landing slots at LaGuardia that were held by Spirit Airlines prior to their May 2026 bankruptcy?

TL;DR

Frontier is the best answer at 52.5% because it is the cleanest low-fare replacement and already had a signed 2023 deal to take this exact LaGuardia package from Spirit. Southwest, JetBlue, Other, and American are live at 24.6%, 20.4%, 16.5%, and 11.9% because the process can split the slots and the court still wants value. Delta, United, and Alaska are long shots because the FAA/DOT signal points away from legacy incumbents and toward low-fare or limited-incumbent access.

Context

Spirit says it began an orderly wind-down on May 2, 2026, with all flights canceled and customer service unavailable, leaving its LaGuardia operating rights as one of the estate’s most valuable assets (Spirit restructuring site). Spirit’s court papers set a June 30, 2026 final bid deadline for the LGA slots and a July 9, 2026 auction if overlapping qualified bids are received (Spirit bankruptcy Doc. 1117).

The asset is best read as 22 individual FAA Operating Authorizations, not 22 round-trip pairs; The Points Guy reported that 22 slots translate to roughly 12 daily flights and that Spirit valued them near $87 million in April 2026 (The Points Guy). The final buyer still needs the slot transfer and operating plan to survive FAA/DOT approval and airport-facility constraints, because the FAA’s June 23, 2026 order keeps LGA slot controls in force through October 28, 2028 and requires FAA written approval for trades or leases (Federal Register / GovInfo).

Evidence

The historical backbone points away from the biggest incumbents. In the Delta-US Airways slot-swap remedy, DOT auctioned LGA slots to limited incumbents: JetBlue paid $32.0 million for eight LGA slot pairs, WestJet paid $17.6 million for eight LGA slot pairs, bidders had to hold under 5% of slots at the relevant airport, and no carrier could win more than one LGA bundle (U.S. DOT). In the 2013 American-US Airways settlement, DOJ required 34 LGA slots plus related airport rights to be divested to approved low-cost carrier purchasers, with preference for airlines that did not already control a large share of slots or gates (U.S. DOJ). The closest direct analogue is the failed JetBlue-Spirit remedy: on June 1, 2023, JetBlue agreed to transfer all Spirit holdings at LGA to Frontier, principally six Marine Air Terminal gates and 22 takeoff and landing slots, subject to Port Authority and FAA/DOT approval (JetBlue / Frontier press release).

The current regulatory signal is even more explicit than those older remedies. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said on May 28, 2026 that Spirit’s LGA slots should go to another low-cost carrier and that, if that cannot happen, the slots could be retired to reduce congestion (AirlineGeeks). The formal FAA order does not name a preferred buyer, but it does keep the 71 scheduled operations-per-hour cap, the 80% usage rule, the lottery mechanism for withdrawn or unassigned slots, and the FAA written-approval requirement for trades and leases (Federal Register / GovInfo). The Port Authority also says any LGA slot buyer must solve Terminal A access: its June 9, 2026 filing says a buyer must be willing to assume the Marine Air Terminal lease, cure lease defaults, and prove it can perform LGA operations (Port Authority filing).

The latest official FAA operator totals make the concentration problem clear. These are individual LGA slots or Operating Authorizations for Summer 2025, generated December 9, 2025 at 07:56, status date 2025 current and future, excluding FAA-held slots and slots held less than five days; the table covers nine operators (FAA Summer 2025 LGA Operator Totals).

This table is the main reason Frontier leads. Frontier is a low-fare carrier with only 10 operated LGA slots in the FAA Summer 2025 operator report, and it already did diligence on this exact package in the 2023 JetBlue-Frontier divestiture agreement (FAA Summer 2025 LGA Operator Totals, JetBlue / Frontier press release). Frontier also moved quickly after Spirit’s shutdown, saying on May 2, 2026 that it served more than 100 routes previously flown by Spirit and would add nine routes plus 15 daily flights across 18 former Spirit markets, which I read as a real signal that Frontier wants to harvest Spirit demand (Frontier). Its weakness is wallet discipline: Frontier reported $974 million of liquidity at March 31, 2026, enough to bid but not enough to ignore price (Frontier Q1 2026 results).

Southwest is the strongest alternative. It is not an ultra-low-cost carrier, but it is a low-fare incumbent with 70 operated LGA slots, a real LGA operation, and the balance sheet to pay for premium airport access (FAA Summer 2025 LGA Operator Totals). JetBlue has the New York brand and only 31 operated LGA slots, but its case is weaker than it first looks because it previously treated Frontier as the pro-competition buyer for these assets, and Reuters reported on June 17, 2026 that JetBlue planned to close Newark and LaGuardia technical operations bases while shifting focus toward Fort Lauderdale (JetBlue / Frontier press release, Reuters via Investing.com). American can pay and was named by industry coverage as a leading candidate, but 327 operated LGA slots and legacy-carrier optics put it behind the low-fare candidates (The Points Guy, FAA Summer 2025 LGA Operator Totals).

Other airline(s) is mostly Porter, with smaller shares for Air Canada, WestJet, Allegiant, Breeze, Sun Country, or a new entrant. Porter already operated six LGA slots in Summer 2025, and The Points Guy identified Porter as a dark horse because U.S. preclearance at Toronto Billy Bishop could make LGA more attractive (FAA Summer 2025 LGA Operator Totals, The Points Guy). United has 67 operated LGA slots but a stronger strategic anchor at Newark, Delta already operates 580 LGA slots and faces the worst concentration optics, and Alaska appears in the FAA holder totals with 12 LGA slots but not in the Summer 2025 operator totals, which makes an Alaska bid possible but poorly aligned with its current operating footprint (FAA Summer 2025 LGA Operator Totals, FAA Summer 2025 LGA Holder Totals).

My scenario model puts 64% on a one-winner sale, 28% on a split sale or FAA reallocation path, and 8% on retirement, litigation delay, or no listed recipient before the May 2, 2028 deadline. In the one-winner path I give Frontier the largest share, then Southwest, JetBlue, American, and Other. In the split path I overweight Frontier, Southwest, JetBlue, and Other because partial bids are allowed and past LGA remedies used bundles, but I keep the split path below one-third because the Port Authority’s Terminal A lease concern favors a single operating tenant (Spirit bankruptcy Doc. 1117, Port Authority filing).

What's non-obvious

The obvious read is that the highest cash bid wins. That is incomplete. The bankruptcy estate wants value, but the FAA must confirm slot transfers, the Port Authority controls usable facilities, and the FAA chief has publicly pushed low-fare replacement or retirement rather than a pure incumbent auction (Federal Register / GovInfo, Port Authority filing, AirlineGeeks). That is why Frontier beats richer airlines in my forecast.

The second non-obvious point is that JetBlue’s old remedy helps Frontier more than JetBlue. In 2023 JetBlue itself told regulators that Frontier taking Spirit’s six Marine Air Terminal gates and 22 LGA slots would preserve ultra-low-cost access at LaGuardia, and that deal was conditioned on the same Port Authority and FAA/DOT approvals that matter now (JetBlue / Frontier press release). I read that as evidence of Frontier’s interest, operational fit, and regulatory acceptability.

Limitations

No qualified-bidder list, bid amount, or final allocation was public before the June 30, 2026 final bid deadline. That is the largest missing fact. A named stalking-horse bidder, a public Port Authority settlement, or a written FAA/DOT eligibility rule would move the probabilities sharply.

The word slots is also messy here. FAA reports count individual Operating Authorizations, while the client question uses slot pairs and press coverage often translates 22 slots into about 11 to 12 daily flights (FAA Summer 2025 LGA Operator Totals, The Points Guy). I forecast the practical resolution: any airline that gets enough former Spirit LGA rights for scheduled service should count, but a final order using unpaired individual OAs could create judgment calls.