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See the future before it arrives.

AI forecasting for finance, politics, and global events.

The most decorated forecasting bot in the world

Public tournaments. Live markets. Judged by what actually happens.

Kalshi

We started with $35 and ran it to $1.94M on live prediction markets — more than a 50,000× return.

50,000× · 6th all-time · $35 → $1.94M · Past peakLeaderboard →

Metaculus Cup

The World Cup of forecasting. The best bot performance ever — ahead of professional superforecasters.

1st bot · 3rd of 1,283 overall · FinalLeaderboard →

FutureEval Bot Tournament

Metaculus' bot-only competition: AI forecasting systems only, no humans. 214 systems in spring, 164 in fall.

Spring 20262nd · out of 214 · FinalLeaderboard →

Fall 20251st · out of 164 · FinalLeaderboard →

Metaculus Market Pulse

Predict macro markets, biweekly. In 26Q2, the first bot ever to win a human tournament on Metaculus.

26Q21st · 1st of 112 overall, humans included · FinalLeaderboard →

26Q11st bot · 4th of 187 overall · FinalLeaderboard →

A selection, not an exhaustive list. Numbers refresh from each platform’s public page.

Anatomy of a forecast

One real question, the way the system actually worked it.

  1. A question with a deadline

    “Will the US Department of War’s supply-chain-risk designation of Anthropic be in effect on June 30, 2026?”

  2. Independent AI scientists take it apart

    Each works alone, from primary records. Select one to see its work.

  3. One calibrated answer

    13.7%chance it stands

    “That is wrong for the exact 10 U.S.C. §3252 / DFARS designation named in the resolution criteria.”

    — the final write-up, on the statutory conflation driving the coverage

    The estimates are synthesized into one probability — with five points of it explicitly priced to the risk that a resolver repeats the press’s conflation.

  4. Scored by reality

    The designation fell. Resolved NO on June 30 — against the published expert consensus, with no market to lean on. The edge was reading the statute.

    Read the full forecast report →

Who it’s for

Teams whose decisions depend on being right about what happens next.

Policy makers & analysts

Briefings tell you what might happen. A forecast tells you how likely it is. Get real odds on elections, conflicts, and sanctions, and read the reasoning behind every number.

The President said the US would take Kharg Island. We said 2%. It didn't happen.

Read the forecast →

Investment professionals

By the time something is in the news, it's in the price. The edge is knowing the odds before consensus forms, and updating them as evidence comes in.

The BOJ governor was hospitalized days before the June meeting. We held at 88% for a hike. They hiked.

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Insurance & reinsurance

You can't underwrite a gut feeling. Turn messy questions like whether a rule survives the courts into distributions you can actually price against.

The trade press said Anthropic's Pentagon designation would stand. We said 13.7%. It fell.

Read the forecast →

“I was prepared to be underwhelmed, but the sh*t is impressive.”

Good Judgment Inc. Superforecaster

The team

  • Venia Veselovsky
  • Theo Summer
  • James Shinn
  • James Evans
  • Daniel Proskurka
  • Robert de Neufville
  • Scott Eastman
  • Geoff Odlum