When will the construction of Jeddah Tower be complete?

TL;DR

My median completion-declaration date is March 27, 2029. The forecast puts 39.3% before January 1, 2029, 73% before January 1, 2030, and 4% after December 31, 2037. The August 2028 project target is physically possible, but the facade and post-topping work make 2029 the most likely year.

Context

Jeddah Tower is a live construction project again. On October 2, 2024, Jeddah Economic Company signed a SAR 7.2 billion completion agreement with Saudi Binladin Group; SAR 1.1 billion covered earlier work, the disclosed program was 42 months, and 63 of 157 floors had been completed. Concrete pouring resumed on January 20, 2025. By September 1, 2026, the contractor reported Level 113 and 454 meters.

I treat completion as the first clear declaration that the final structure and architectural envelope are finished and the tower is no longer under construction. I do not require tenant fit-out, occupancy, a public opening, or completion of Jeddah Economic City. This makes the likely resolution earlier than full commercial operation, but later than a topping-out ceremony.

Evidence

The closest precedent is Burj Khalifa. It reached Level 100 in January 2007, topped out in January 2009, and finished cladding in September 2009. Jeddah Tower reached Level 100 on April 20, 2026. A mechanical copy of Burj Khalifa's 32-month Level-100-to-cladding interval points to December 2028 for Jeddah Tower. That is close to the official target, but already leaves no allowance for Jeddah's greater height or its old stoppage.

The cleanest 550-meter-plus comparisons show that much remains after the headline structure reaches its top. The sample is small and survivorship-biased, but it is the right order of magnitude.

The midpoint of those lags is roughly 15–17 months. Jeddah can beat a simple sequential model because facade, MEP, podium, and elevator work run in parallel. It can also underperform the sample because no completed building has crossed one kilometer. Broader megaproject research finds persistent schedule optimism, though those databases usually measure from the decision to build and are too pessimistic for a tower already at Level 113 (Flyvbjerg, 2014).

The restart-era milestone history shows real acceleration, but not the uninterrupted five-day cycle used in promotional summaries.

From March 25, 2026 to September 1, 2026, the reported core advanced 22 levels in 160 calendar days, or 7.3 days per level. The contractor's five-day figure describes the active core cycle, not completion of slabs, wings, facade, and services at the same height. I use the measured 7–8 day pace for the main occupied structure, then add separate time for the upper transition, pinnacle, envelope, and closeout.

The facade is the main schedule test. Kingdom Holding reported on August 6, 2026 that more than 3,000 panels equaled about 11% of the facade. That implies roughly 27,000 panels in total and about 24,000 still to install. Finishing by August 2028 requires roughly 930–980 panels per month, depending on the unreported measurement date of the 3,000-panel figure. Burj Khalifa used close to 26,000 panels and installed its cladding from May 2007 to September 2009, also about 930 panels per month on average. The target therefore demands mature Burj-Khalifa-level facade output almost immediately. It is hard, not impossible.

Procurement is stronger than the tower's old history suggests. Jangho won a SAR 1.052 billion curtain-wall subcontract and installed the first new unit on November 30, 2025. KONE booked an order for 67 elevators and escalators on October 8, 2025. Jinggong won the main steel package above Level 120 in May 2026. These awards cut abandonment risk. They do not remove installation and commissioning risk, and the upper-steel award came only months before the core approached that zone. Mobilization also rose from roughly 5,200 workers in March 2026 to about 6,400 in the August release, which argues against an imminent stop.

Financing is active but not fully de-risked. The 2024 contract disclosure names internal funds and banking facilities, but gives no committed facility amount. Kingdom Holding's August 2026 release kept Jeddah Economic City at its year-end 2025 valuation because of real-estate-sector challenges. I treat that as a mild right-tail signal, not evidence of a near-term suspension.

The bottom-up schedule lands near the reference class. In June 2026, structural engineer John Peronto put the sky-terrace region around Level 160 roughly 60 weeks away, implying August 2027, while maintaining the August 2028 completion target. Adding about a year for the upper structure, facade catch-up, and architectural closeout produces late 2028 in the clean case and 2029 after ordinary slippage. The independent Skyscraper Center lists 2030, but it does not publish enough schedule methodology for me to treat that year as more than a cautionary outside view.

I encoded the forecast as a right-skewed mixture over elapsed time from September 4, 2026: 34.0% near the public target, centered on August 25, 2028; 39.3% routine slippage, centered on May 1, 2029; 14% larger technical or commercial delay, centered on July 1, 2030; 8% a renewed multi-year stall, centered on March 1, 2033; 1% a more severe but recoverable delay, centered on June 1, 2035; and 4% explicit cancellation, indefinite suspension, or completion beyond the upper bound. Continuous scenario tails lift the final post-2037 probability to 4.4%. The resulting 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles are June 17, 2028, March 27, 2029, and August 24, 2032.

What's non-obvious

Most quick readings make one of two errors. The optimistic error treats Level 113 out of 157 or 167 as near completion, even though the tower was only 454 meters high on September 1, 2026, versus a planned height above 1,000 meters, and the facade was only 11% installed in the August report. The pessimistic error extrapolates 11% linearly. Curtain-wall work ramps across multiple elevations, and the tapered upper tower needs fewer panels per vertical meter.

The best single comparison is not the full construction duration of Burj Khalifa. It is the time from Level 100 to exterior completion. That benchmark points to December 2028, just four months after Jeddah's target. This is why I give August 2028 meaningful probability while keeping the median in spring 2029.

Uncertainties

• The final floor count is inconsistent. The 2024 Saudi Exchange disclosure says 157, while the Skyscraper Center says 167. Different treatment of technical levels may explain the gap, but the public record does not settle it.
• The August earnings release gives concrete, facade, and workforce figures, but not the exact observation date for each measure. I also lack authenticated public data for wing slabs, podium completion, permanent elevator installation, MEP second-fix, and commissioning. Those workstreams can move the finish date even if the core stays on pace.
• I could not authenticate an exact contractual date of August 17, 2028. The primary Saudi Exchange disclosure says 42 months, while current project reporting supports August 2028, not a specific day.
• A developer can declare construction complete before a stricter database or operator does. The resolution rule favors the earliest clear, widely accepted declaration, so wording in future announcements creates several weeks or months of irreducible date uncertainty.