# Which airlines will take control of the takeoff and landing slots at LaGuardia that were held by Spirit Airlines prior to their May 2026 bankruptcy?

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## Forecast

Top outcome: Frontier Airlines at 55.3%. Other leading outcomes: JetBlue Airways: 34.2%; Other airline(s): 18.9%; American Airlines: 16.4%; Southwest Airlines: 14.8%.

Generated: May 26, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
Forecast model: gpt-5.5
Research model: gpt-5.5

## Analysis

## TL;DR
Frontier Airlines is the most likely airline to receive at least one former Spirit LaGuardia slot pair, with JetBlue the main challenger and the largest incumbents held back by slot-concentration precedent.

## Context
Spirit’s parent announced on May 2, 2026 that it had started an immediate wind-down and cancelled all Spirit flights ([Spirit SEC exhibit, May 2, 2026](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498710/000095010326006723/dp246246_ex9901.htm)). On May 5, 2026, Bankruptcy Judge Sean Lane authorized a rapid liquidation built around selling Spirit assets, including gates and landing slots ([AP, May 5, 2026](https://apnews.com/article/spirit-airlines-out-of-business-bankruptcy-83a528124ab0af56c87c6e98ad9c1673)).

The LaGuardia package is small but valuable. The FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder report, generated December 5, 2025 with status date 2025, lists Spirit with 22 individual LGA slots and excludes FAA-held slots and slots held fewer than five days ([FAA S25 LGA holder totals](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_HOLDER_TOTALS.pdf)). DOT defines one slot as one takeoff or one landing authority, so I treat this as about 11 daily arrival/departure pairs, not 22 pairs ([DOT slots and exemptions](https://www.transportation.gov/policy/aviation-policy/competition-data-analysis/slots-exemptions)). Spirit’s 2025 Form 10-K, filed March 16, 2026, valued its 22 LGA slots at $83.5 million using LGA slot transaction data, market lease rates, and specialist input ([Spirit 2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498710/000162828026018265/flyy-20251231.htm)).

## Evidence
The historical backbone points away from a simple highest-bidder result. In the Delta-US Airways slot swap, DOT and FAA required a divestiture of 16 LGA slot pairs, sold as two bundles of eight pairs; bidders needed less than 5% of slots at the airport, JetBlue won one LGA bundle, and WestJet won the other even though JetBlue bid highest on all three total bundles across LGA and DCA ([DOT, Aug. 1, 2019 summary of the 2011 auction](https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/jetblue-westjet-gain-slots-laguardia-reagan-national-airports)). In the American-US Airways merger settlement, DOJ required 34 LGA slots and supporting facilities to be transferred to approved low-cost-carrier purchasers, with preference for airlines without large slot or gate shares at the airport ([DOJ, Nov. 12, 2013](https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-requires-us-airways-and-american-airlines-divest-facilities-seven-key)). The main bankruptcy-sale analogue cuts the same broad way: Southwest bought ATA’s 14 LGA slots in bankruptcy for $7.5 million in 2008, giving a low-cost carrier new LGA access rather than giving the slots to Delta or American ([AP via Philadelphia Inquirer, Nov. 19, 2008](https://www.inquirer.com/philly/business/homepage/20081119_Southwest_bids_on_LaGuardia_spots.html)).

The current rules keep both forces alive: price matters, but FAA approval matters too. The FAA’s current LGA operating order, effective through October 24, 2026, allows carriers to lease or trade operating authorizations for consideration, but the FAA must confirm and approve the transaction in writing before it becomes effective ([FAA LGA operating limitations order, May 13, 2024](https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2024-10298.pdf)). The same order imposes an 80% usage requirement over two-month reporting periods and says withdrawn, surrendered, or unassigned authorizations may be retired until an hour reaches 71 scheduled operations or reallocated by lottery under 14 CFR 93.225 ([FAA LGA operating limitations order, May 13, 2024](https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2024-10298.pdf); [14 CFR 93.225](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/14/93.225)).

The latest official holder snapshot is one seasonal observation, not a live May 2026 allocation. Its vintage is December 5, 2025; its coverage is Summer 2025; its unit is individual slots; its total listed non-FAA holder slots are 1,141 ([FAA S25 LGA holder totals](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_HOLDER_TOTALS.pdf)).

| Holder in FAA Summer 2025 report | Individual LGA slots | Share of listed holder slots |
|---|---:|---:|
| Delta Air Lines | 511 | 44.8% |
| American Airlines | 327 | 28.7% |
| United Airlines | 94 | 8.2% |
| Southwest Airlines | 57 | 5.0% |
| Air Canada | 43 | 3.8% |
| JetBlue Airways | 31 | 2.7% |
| Spirit Airlines | 22 | 1.9% |
| WestJet | 16 | 1.4% |
| Republic Airways | 15 | 1.3% |
| Alaska Airlines | 12 | 1.1% |
| Endeavor Air | 9 | 0.8% |
| Frontier Airlines | 4 | 0.4% |

That concentration table is why Delta and American are low despite their ability to pay. Delta and American together held 73.4% of listed LGA holder slots in the FAA Summer 2025 report ([FAA S25 LGA holder totals](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_HOLDER_TOTALS.pdf)). Frontier, JetBlue, Alaska, and potential new entrants look much cleaner under the old limited-incumbent logic, though Alaska’s fit is weak because it has no comparable current signal around Spirit’s assets.

The strongest airline-specific evidence is Frontier. In June 2023, JetBlue and Frontier signed a definitive agreement under which JetBlue would divest all Spirit holdings at LaGuardia to Frontier if the JetBlue-Spirit merger closed; the package was described as six Marine Air Terminal gates and 22 takeoff and landing slots, subject to Port Authority and FAA/DOT approval ([JetBlue press release, June 1, 2023](https://news.jetblue.com/latest-news/press-release-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Frontier-Announce-Divestiture-Agreement-in-Connection-with-JetBlues-Combination-with-Spirit/default.aspx)). That agreement died with the blocked merger, but it is direct revealed preference for the exact asset block.

JetBlue remains the main alternative. It has a small LGA slot share by FAA holder count, a strong New York and Florida network, and it moved quickly after Spirit’s shutdown by offering rescue fares and expanding Fort Lauderdale service to 11 new cities, with nearly 130 daily Fort Lauderdale departures planned for summer 2026 ([Reuters via Investing.com, May 4, 2026](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/jetblue-frontier-shares-rise-as-spirit-shutdown-makes-room-for-growth-4655918)). The counterweight is the 2024 antitrust ruling: a federal court blocked JetBlue’s $3.8 billion Spirit acquisition because the deal would harm consumers by eliminating Spirit as an ultra-low-cost competitor ([DOJ, Jan. 16, 2024](https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-statements-district-court-decision-block-jetblues-acquisition-spirit)). I treat that as a drag, not a veto, because buying 11 LGA pairs after Spirit has already shut down is much narrower than buying the whole airline.

Frontier also has current strategic pull. Reuters reported on May 5, 2026 that Frontier expected to absorb significant demand from Spirit’s shutdown, that Spirit’s collapse removed Frontier’s fiercest competitor on more than 100 overlapping routes, and that Frontier’s CEO said the company was considering Spirit assets while staying disciplined ([Reuters via Investing.com, May 5, 2026](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/frontier-airlines-sees-opportunity-to-absorb-demand-ceded-by-spirit-4658129)). That makes Frontier the best blend of regulatory acceptability, direct asset fit, and current business need.

My model assigns 52% to a single-package sale or long lease, 26% to a split sale, 16% to an FAA/DOT-shaped reallocation or competition remedy, and 6% to no clear airline allocation by the deadline because of retirement, litigation, or opaque disposition. Within those branches, I weighted carriers by four factors: existing LGA concentration, direct evidence of interest, ability to use the Marine Air Terminal package, and ability to pay. The resulting marginal forecasts are Frontier 55.3%, JetBlue 34.2%, Other airline(s) 19%, American 16%, Southwest 15%, United 11%, Delta 4%, and Alaska 3%.

## What's non-obvious
The slots are not ordinary bankruptcy property. Spirit’s lenders and estate have a strong reason to maximize proceeds, and Spirit’s 10-K shows the LGA slots were collateral for its exit revolving credit facility ([Spirit 2025 Form 10-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498710/000162828026018265/flyy-20251231.htm)). But the FAA order still requires written approval for transfers, and the best LGA precedents show regulators using scarce slots to add low-cost or limited-incumbent service rather than deepen the biggest incumbent positions ([FAA LGA operating limitations order, May 13, 2024](https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2024-10298.pdf); [DOT, Aug. 1, 2019](https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/jetblue-westjet-gain-slots-laguardia-reagan-national-airports)). That is the core tension in the forecast.

The other non-obvious point is that JetBlue is not ruled out by its failed Spirit merger. The old case was about buying all of Spirit and eliminating a national ultra-low-cost rival; this question is about a small LGA slot block after Spirit has ceased operations ([DOJ, Jan. 16, 2024](https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-statements-district-court-decision-block-jetblues-acquisition-spirit)). The current DOT also publicly blamed the 2024 JetBlue-Spirit block while coordinating passenger relief after Spirit’s shutdown, which makes me less confident that regulators will apply the old Biden-era antitrust posture mechanically ([DOT, May 2, 2026](https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/trumps-transportation-secretary-sean-p-duffy-secures-relief-spirit-airlines-flyers-and)).

## Limitations
I did not find a final DOT order, FAA transfer confirmation, bankruptcy-court sale order, or major-news report allocating Spirit’s former LGA slots as of this forecast. That absence is not evidence that no bids exist; bankruptcy bids and FAA transfer talks can be private until a sale motion or approval is filed.

The biggest data issue is the unit. Official FAA and SEC sources say Spirit had 22 individual LGA slots, while some merger-era language described the package as 22 slot pairs ([FAA S25 LGA holder totals](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_HOLDER_TOTALS.pdf); [JetBlue press release, June 1, 2023](https://news.jetblue.com/latest-news/press-release-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Frontier-Announce-Divestiture-Agreement-in-Connection-with-JetBlues-Combination-with-Spirit/default.aspx)). If the resolution authority treats the package as 22 pairs rather than 22 individual slots, the chance of multiple winners rises, especially for Other airline(s), Southwest, American, and United.

The other missing piece is the exact time-of-day and terminal disposition. FAA can retire surrendered or withdrawn authorizations in hours above the 71-operation cap, and the Port Authority may care about who can use the six Marine Air Terminal gates as a coherent operation ([FAA LGA operating limitations order, May 13, 2024](https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2024-10298.pdf); [JetBlue press release, June 1, 2023](https://news.jetblue.com/latest-news/press-release-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Frontier-Announce-Divestiture-Agreement-in-Connection-with-JetBlues-Combination-with-Spirit/default.aspx)). A permissive, price-driven process would raise American, United, and Delta. A competition-first process would raise Frontier, JetBlue, Southwest, and Other airline(s).

## Sources

- [spiritrestructuring.com](https://www.spiritrestructuring.com/resources/Spirit-Airlines-Begins-Orderly-Wind-Down-of-Operations.pdf) (openai)
- [Spirit Airlines has stopped flying. Here's what happens next](https://apnews.com/article/83a528124ab0af56c87c6e98ad9c1673) (openai)
- [JetBlue, WestJet Gain Slots at LaGuardia, Reagan National Airports | US Department of Transportation](https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/jetblue-westjet-gain-slots-laguardia-reagan-national-airports) (openai)
- [Information & Resources – Spirit Airlines](https://www.spiritrestructuring.com/information-resources) (openai)
- [JetBlue Airways Corporation - JetBlue and Frontier Announce Divestiture Agreement in Connection with JetBlue’s Combination with Spirit](https://ir.jetblue.com/news/news-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Frontier-Announce-Divestiture-Agreement-in-Connection-with-JetBlues-Combination-with-Spirit/default.aspx) (openai)
- [Office of Public Affairs |  Justice Department Statements on District Court Decision to Block JetBlue’s Acquisition of Spirit Airlines | United States Department of Justice](https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-statements-district-court-decision-block-jetblues-acquisition-spirit) (openai)
- [Airlines expand route networks after Spirit's collapse: Travel Weekly](https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News/Airline-News/Airlines-expand-route-networks-after-Spirit-closure) (openai)
- [US airlines add flights on former Spirit routes - The Points Guy](https://thepointsguy.com/news/spirit-airlines-shut-down-new-routes-rivals) (openai)
- [Frontier Airlines sees opportunity to absorb demand ceded by Spirit By Reuters](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/frontier-airlines-parent-posts-bigger-quarterly-loss-as-fuel-costs-surge-4658805) (openai)
- [Frontier swoops in after Spirit fails while rivals cut capacity | Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/05/10/frontier-capacity-expansion-flights-market-share-spirit-airlines) (openai)
- [Case number: 1:25-bk-11897 - Spirit Aviation Holdings, Inc. - New York Southern Bankruptcy Court](https://www.bkalerts.com/recent-bankruptcy-cases/new-york-southern-bankruptcy-court/1%3A25-bk-11897/bankruptcy-case-spirit-aviation-holdings-inc) (openai)
- Domain Expert Search (mcp)
  > Found 5 subagent groups for 'US airline bankruptcy airport slots FAA DOT antitrust LaGuardia slot allocation':
- Domain Expert Research Task (mcp)
  > Job domain_expert_research_task_c3c81d8c1d done after 389100ms.
- [public-inspection.federalregister.gov](https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2024-10298.pdf) (tool)
- [faa.gov](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_HOLDER_TOTALS.pdf) (tool)
- [justice.gov](https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-statement-us-airwaysdelta-airlines-acquisition-slots-washingtons-reagan) (tool)
- [justice.gov](https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-requires-us-airways-and-american-airlines-divest-facilities-seven-key) (tool)
- [justice.gov](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-block-jetblue-s-proposed-acquisition-spirit?os=wtmbrefapp) (tool)
- [justice.gov](https://www.justice.gov/media/1380311/dl) (tool)
- [law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/14/93.225) (tool)
- [law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/14/93.213) (tool)
- [law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/14/93.227) (tool)

## Question Details

On May 2, 2026, Spirit Airlines ceased operations and began liquidating its assets following bankruptcy, canceling all flights and vacating facilities including its operations at LaGuardia Airport (LGA) in New York. (opb.org) Spirit had been the sole tenant of the Marine Air Terminal at LaGuardia and held a portfolio of FAA-controlled takeoff and landing slots at this slot-constrained airport. (en.wikipedia.org) In a liquidation scenario, such slots are valuable assets that may be reassigned by regulators (e.g., the FAA and U.S. Department of Transportation) or transferred/sold through bankruptcy proceedings to other airlines. This question asks which airlines will ultimately take control (through purchase, transfer, or regulatory reallocation) of the LaGuardia slot pairs that were held by Spirit Airlines immediately prior to its shutdown on May 2, 2026. The resolution will consider developments from May 2, 2026 onward until a clear, authoritative allocation of the majority of these slots has occurred.

### Resolution Criteria

This question will resolve based on publicly reported final allocation(s) of Spirit Airlines' former LaGuardia (LGA) slot pairs. Primary sources for resolution will include: - Official announcements or orders from the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) or Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) - Bankruptcy court filings or rulings related to Spirit Airlines asset disposition - Confirmed reporting from major reputable news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP News, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal) Each listed airline option will be considered "true" if it is confirmed to have obtained control of at least one slot pair formerly held by Spirit at LGA, whether via purchase, lease, or regulatory reassignment. If multiple airlines acquire slots, multiple options may resolve as true. If no clear or final allocation is reported by May 2, 2028, the question will be annulled.

### Fine Print

- "Control" includes ownership, long-term lease, or formal allocation of slot usage rights sufficient to operate scheduled service at LGA. - Temporary or emergency use of slots (e.g., short-term accommodation flights immediately after shutdown) does not count unless later formalized. - If a merger or acquisition results in slots being transferred indirectly (e.g., via acquisition of Spirit assets), the acquiring airline counts. - If slots are returned to a general FAA pool and later redistributed, the eventual recipient airlines count. - If an airline ceases to exist or merges before resolution, its successor entity is credited. - Options are not mutually exclusive: multiple airlines may receive portions of the slot portfolio.