# Who will be exercising the powers of the Venezuelan presidency on 31 December 2026?

Canonical URL: https://preseen.com/reports/e472d6c8-dce5-45ea-a4f3-a00f2b3d282a/who-will-be-exercising-the-powers-of-the-venezuelan-presidency-on-31-december-20
Markdown URL: https://preseen.com/reports/e472d6c8-dce5-45ea-a4f3-a00f2b3d282a/markdown

## Forecast

Top outcome: Delcy Rodriguez at 63.7%. Other leading outcomes: Other Chavista (Jorge Rodriguez, Diosdado Cabello, or other PSUV figure): 15.8%; Other / power vacuum / civil war: 10.1%; Maria Corina Machado: 8.6%; Nicolas Maduro: 1.8%.

Generated: June 28, 2026 at 7:14 PM UTC
Forecast model: gpt-5.5
Research model: gpt-5.5

## Analysis

## TL;DR
Delcy Rodríguez is the answer to act on. I put her at 64%, with another Chavista at 16%, other or vacuum at 10%, María Corina Machado at 9%, and Nicolás Maduro at 2%. The main threat to Delcy before year-end is a Chavista or security-state replacement triggered by the earthquake response or hardline backlash, not a fast Machado election.

## Context
Delcy Rodríguez is still the public and operational head of the Venezuelan state. AP reported on 6 April 2026 that she had exceeded the 90-day temporary-absence limit without a public National Assembly extension vote, while the U.S. State Department had recognized her as Venezuela’s sole Head of State and Maduro remained in U.S. custody after pleading not guilty in New York ([AP, 6 Apr. 2026](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-maduro-acting-president-delcy-rodriguez-trump-f33d6fe7407305b513940dfa4f69136c)).

The 24 June earthquake has made the forecast less stable, but not less incumbent-favored. AP reported on 28 June 2026 that Rodríguez was directing the response as acting president, that more than 1,400 people had died, that thousands were still missing, and that 14,000 military and police were deployed in La Guaira under a special-permit access regime ([AP, 28 Jun. 2026](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-earthquakes-survivors-rodriguez-8ff565001bec2f619400e6449dda0aa3)).

## Evidence
The historical backbone points to ruling-coalition survival. Wright and Bak’s work on autocratic regime stability finds that over 50% of autocratic leader exits in Archigos occur while the incumbent autocratic regime remains in power, because leader exit and ruling-group exit are different events ([Wright & Bak, 2016](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053168015626606)). Downes and Monten’s work on foreign-imposed regime change reaches the same practical lesson: interventions that decapitate a regime while leaving the wider institutions intact are the least likely to produce democracy ([Belfer Center, 2012](https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/why-foreign-imposed-regime-change-rarely-path-democracy)). Venezuela fits that pattern. Maduro is gone, but the TSJ, National Assembly, PSUV, FANB, interior ministry, and intelligence network remain in Chavista hands.

The strongest current signals are recognition, paperwork, and coercion. The U.S. Treasury removed Rodríguez from the SDN list on 1 April 2026 ([OFAC, 1 Apr. 2026](https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260401)), and AP reported on 28 May 2026 that the Trump administration had instructed federal prosecutors in Miami to avoid pursuing criminal investigations into Rodríguez, another sign of a working U.S. relationship with her government ([AP, 28 May 2026](https://apnews.com/article/federal-prosecutors-venezuela-rodriguez-avoid-criminal-investigations-07226dea025e16afcf8ca3e39280fd76)). On the coercive side, Reuters reported on 18 March 2026 that Rodríguez replaced Vladimir Padrino López, defense minister for more than 11 years, with intelligence chief Gen. Gustavo González López ([Reuters via Investing.com, 18 Mar. 2026](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/venezuela-acting-president-replaces-longtime-defense-minister-4568984)). On the administrative side, a 24 June emergency decree was issued in her name as Presidenta (E) de la República Bolivariana de Venezuela and declared a nationwide emergency after the earthquakes ([Gaceta text, 24 Jun. 2026](https://tugacetaoficial.com/leyes/texto-decreto-n-5-364-estado-de-emergencia-en-todo-el-territorio-nacional-por-eventos-sismicos/)).

The legal argument against Delcy is real but weak as a forecast trigger. Article 234 says temporary presidential absences are filled by the executive vice president for up to 90 days, extendable by the National Assembly for another 90 days; Article 233 says an absolute absence in the first four years requires a new direct election within 30 days ([Justia, Venezuelan Constitution Articles 233-234](https://venezuela.justia.com/federales/constitucion-de-la-republica-bolivariana-de-venezuela/titulo-v/capitulo-ii/)). But the first 90-day deadline already passed with no public extension vote and no loss of power for Rodríguez ([AP, 6 Apr. 2026](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-maduro-acting-president-delcy-rodriguez-trump-f33d6fe7407305b513940dfa4f69136c)). My inference is that the July 180-day problem will be handled the same way: ignored, reinterpreted, or covered by a TSJ ruling and the earthquake emergency.

The Machado path is strong electorally and weak institutionally. AP reported on 23 May 2026 that Machado said she would run again and intended to return to Venezuela before the end of 2026 ([AP, 23 May 2026](https://apnews.com/article/4f3c9306b348040f63a43c82272f141b)). A Gold Glove Consulting poll reported by the Financial Times and summarized by MercoPress had Machado at 67% against Rodríguez at 25% in a hypothetical 2026 election, with 1,000 respondents and 24-30 January 2026 fieldwork ([MercoPress, 13 Feb. 2026](https://es.mercopress.com/2026/02/13/encuesta-citada-por-el-ft-venezolanos-muestran-mas-optimismo-tras-la-captura-de-maduro)). But no election date has been announced. Reuters reported on 18 June 2026 that U.S.-welcomed talks between Jorge Rodríguez and Dinorah Figuera focused on democratic transition and strengthening the CNE, not on a near-term swearing-in ([Reuters via Investing.com, 18 Jun. 2026](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/us-hails-initial-meeting-between-venezuelan-government-opposition-4751160)). El País described the same Figuera channel as a U.S.-backed track that reduces Machado’s role in the transition talks ([El País, 18 Jun. 2026](https://elpais.com/america/2026-06-18/estados-unidos-impulsa-una-nueva-figura-opositora-distinta-a-maria-corina-machado-para-negociar-la-transicion.html)).

The main anti-Delcy path is internal Chavista replacement. AP reported on 1 June 2026 that ruling-party unity was cracking as Rodríguez shifted Chávez-era policies and warmed relations with Washington, with loyalists openly criticizing the post-Maduro course ([AP, 1 Jun. 2026](https://apnews.com/article/a8d96666a51289f0c88efcd89a9413bc)). That makes Diosdado Cabello, Jorge Rodríguez, or a security figure the live alternative if Delcy becomes too costly. It does not make Machado the default successor, because the same coercive and judicial institutions that could remove Delcy can also block the opposition.

The security data says Venezuela is stressed but not yet in civil-war conditions. The recent ACLED/HDX country-month series below is current to 28 June 2026, covers 12 monthly observations, and uses monthly political-violence events and fatalities as units; it does not include ordinary protest counts ([ACLED](https://acleddata.com/)).

| Month | Political-violence events | Fatalities |
|---|---:|---:|
| 2025-07 | 28 | 30 |
| 2025-08 | 27 | 33 |
| 2025-09 | 16 | 12 |
| 2025-10 | 35 | 36 |
| 2025-11 | 32 | 31 |
| 2025-12 | 16 | 24 |
| 2026-01 | 28 | 98 |
| 2026-02 | 28 | 29 |
| 2026-03 | 38 | 39 |
| 2026-04 | 35 | 50 |
| 2026-05 | 43 | 44 |
| 2026-06 | 16 | 14 |

The earthquake is the largest late shock. USGS catalog data show two reviewed events near Yumare, Venezuela, at M7.2 and M7.5 on 24 June 2026, both with red PAGER alerts, and AP reports that the disaster has already produced more than 1,400 deaths and severe criticism of the state response ([USGS Earthquake Hazards Program](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/); [AP, 28 Jun. 2026](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-earthquakes-survivors-rodriguez-8ff565001bec2f619400e6449dda0aa3)). This cuts two ways. It can make Rodríguez the face of failure. It also gives her emergency powers, military-control justifications, and a reason for Washington and foreign rescue teams to work through the incumbent government.

I used a 186-day competing-risk frame from 28 June through 31 December 2026. I assign about 16% to an intra-Chavista replacement, 9% to Machado being sworn in, 10% to an other or vacuum outcome, and 2% to Maduro regaining real executive power. The remainder is Delcy. That gives her a lower probability than a pure incumbency read, because the earthquake and Chavista factionalism are real, but a higher probability than a legalistic read, because the law is not self-enforcing in this system.

## What's non-obvious
The Machado polling lead is not the best predictor for this deadline. The better predictor is who controls timing. The actors who control timing are the U.S. administration, the Chavista National Assembly, the TSJ, the military-security command, and the emergency-response machinery. Today those actors are working through Rodríguez, not Machado.

The July constitutional deadline is also less decisive than it looks. If the TSJ or National Assembly declares Maduro permanently absent, Rodríguez can still remain the interim exerciser of power while an election process is negotiated or delayed. If they do nothing, Rodríguez remains anyway. Under this resolution’s de facto standard, Maduro’s residual legal fiction does not beat Rodríguez signing decrees, directing ministers, receiving U.S. recognition, and commanding the earthquake response.

## Limitations
The largest uncertainty is the earthquake. The disaster was only four days old at the forecast timestamp, the death and missing figures are still moving, and there is no reliable post-quake polling on Rodríguez, Machado, the FANB, or confidence in the relief operation.

The second gap is the loyalty map inside the security services. Public reporting shows Rodríguez removed Padrino and promoted González López, while Cabello remains a major security power. It does not show whether mid-level commanders would follow Delcy, Cabello, González, Jorge Rodríguez, or a collective junta if the coalition fractures.

The third gap is market and source noise. I checked public prediction-market pages only after forming the estimate, but the visible crawls were stale and internally inconsistent, so I treated them as a warning about resolution-language ambiguity rather than as a number to average in ([Polymarket event page](https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-de-facto-leader-end-of-2026)).

## Sources

- Domain Expert Search (mcp)
  > Found 14 subagent groups for 'Venezuela 2026 political transition Delcy Rodriguez Maduro Maria Corina Machado Chavismo military incentives':
- Acled (mcp)
  > {
- [data.humdata.org](https://data.humdata.org/dataset/c946742e-cf48-4d8f-8338-4f030768ca14/resource/4e98e767-d28d-4711-b575-ded17a0421ce/download/demonstration-events.xlsx) (tool)
- [developer.mozilla.org](https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/404) (tool)
- Usgs Earthquake (mcp)
  > Found 2 earthquake(s)
- Statedept (mcp)
  > Travel Advisory for VE
- [travel.state.gov](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/traveladvisories/traveladvisories/venezuela-travel-advisory.html) (tool)
- Views (mcp)
  > Tool views_get_conflict_forecasts on views returned an error:
- [errors.pydantic.dev](https://errors.pydantic.dev/2.13/v/missing_argument) (tool)
- [errors.pydantic.dev](https://errors.pydantic.dev/2.13/v/unexpected_keyword_argument) (tool)
- Domain Expert Research Task (mcp)
  > Job domain_expert_research_task_1800b6e687 done after 140394ms.
- Ofac (mcp)
  > OFAC Sanctions Search Results (as of 2026-06-28)
- Electionguide (mcp)
  > Country: Venezuela
- gpr (mcp)
  > Tool gpr_get_country_index on gpr returned an error:
- ewp (mcp)
  > EWP Risk Assessment 2025 (1 countries)
- Opensanctions (mcp)
  > Tool opensanctions_screen_entity on opensanctions returned an error:
- [bbc.com](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpdyvn176lzo) (tool)
- [commonslibrary.parliament.uk](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10452) (tool)
- [independent.co.uk](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/nicolas-maduro-venezuela-president-arrest-trump-b2895315.html) (tool)
- [congress.gov](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/LSB11401) (tool)
- [abcnews.com](https://abcnews.com/US/ousted-venezuelan-president-nicholas-maduro-set-return-manhattan/story?id=131402632) (tool)
- [aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/26/us-judge-weighs-trump-decision-to-bar-venezuelan-funds-for-maduros-defence) (tool)
- [en.ultimasnoticias.com.ve](https://en.ultimasnoticias.com.ve/politics/New-York-prosecutors-request-postponement-of-President-Maduro-and-Cilia-Floors) (tool)
- [english.elpais.com](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-04-06/delcy-rodriguez-three-months-as-president-of-venezuela-under-trumps-watchful-eye.html) (tool)
- [aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18/delcy-rodriguez-replaces-venezuelas-defence-minister-vladimir-padrino) (tool)
- [nbcnews.com](https://www.nbcnews.com/world/venezuela/venezuelas-acting-president-replaces-long-time-defense-minister-rcna264159) (tool)
- [bbc.com](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn43914zx31o) (tool)
- [wola.org](https://www.wola.org/analysis/two-months-without-maduro-in-venezuela-democratic-transition-or-authoritarian-adaptation) (tool)
- [americasquarterly.org](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/normalization-without-transition-delcy-rodriguezs-playbook) (tool)
- [al-monitor.com](https://www.al-monitor.com/index%2ephp/originals/2026/06/venezuelas-delcy-rodriguez-meets-erdogan-surprise-turkey-visit-what-know) (tool)
- [timesofindia.indiatimes.com](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/venezuelas-acting-president-delcy-rodriguez-to-visit-india-from-june-3/articleshow/131464039.cms) (tool)
- [dailymotion.com](https://www.dailymotion.com/video/xaj8geq) (tool)
- [latinamericareports.com](https://www.latinamericareports.com/delcy-rodriguezs-term-as-acting-president-has-expired-why-havent-new-elections-been-called-in-venezuela/14304) (tool)
- [aa.com.tr](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/venezuela-s-acting-president-deflects-questions-about-elections/3924649) (tool)
- [chathamhouse.org](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/04/democratic-elections-venezuela-wont-happen-overnight-heres-groundwork-thats-needed-first) (tool)
- [english.elpais.com](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-01-19/diosdado-cabello-the-unpredictable-go-between-in-venezuela.html) (tool)
- [intellinews.com](https://www.intellinews.com/three-rival-factions-vie-for-control-of-venezuela-after-maduro-s-fall-418538) (tool)
- [thedialogue.org](https://thedialogue.org/analysis/how-strong-is-delcy-rodriguezs-hold-on-power) (tool)
- [english.elpais.com](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-06-26/quake-disaster-tests-delcy-rodriguezs-leadership-as-trumps-pick-in-venezuela.html) (tool)
- [channelstv.com](https://www.channelstv.com/2026/06/27/earthquakes-venezuelans-cry-out-for-help-furious-at-slow-official-response) (tool)
- [acleddata.com](https://acleddata.com/expert-comment/how-will-venezuelas-earthquakes-affect-delcy-rodriguezs-government) (tool)
- [straitstimes.com](https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/venezuelas-machado-plans-to-return-home-by-end-of-year-urges-swift-elections) (tool)
- [pbs.org](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/opposition-leader-machado-says-she-will-return-to-venezuela-in-the-coming-weeks) (tool)
- [english.elpais.com](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-06-19/sidelining-maria-corina-machado-us-supports-a-new-opposition-figure-to-negotiate-the-transition-in-venezuela.html) (tool)
- [venezuelanalysis.com](https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/venezuelan-govt-launches-us-backed-dialogue-with-hardline-opposition) (tool)
- [france24.com](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260619-venezuelan-opposition-figure-heads-to-us-after-transition-talks) (tool)
- [upi.com](https://www.upi.com/Voices/2026/06/04/latam-perspectives-Veneszuela-Panama-Manifesto/7901780596619) (tool)
- [crisisgroup.org](https://www.crisisgroup.org/latin-america-caribbean/andes/venezuela) (tool)
- [campuspress.yale.edu](http://campuspress.yale.edu/svolik/the-politics-of-authoritarian-rule) (tool)
- [blog.bti-project.org](https://blog.bti-project.org/2018/09/14/militaries-hold-key-power-dictators-endgame) (tool)

## Question Details

On 3 January 2026 a US military operation captured Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores in Caracas and extradited them to the United States, where Maduro is now jailed in New York awaiting trial. Two days later, Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) declared Maduro's situation a 'temporary absence' and swore in Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as acting president, with a constitutional 90-day cap that the National Assembly could extend to six months by formal vote. The 90-day deadline expired on 4 April 2026 without a public Assembly extension vote, but Rodriguez has remained in office, and the US State Department has formally recognised her as Venezuela's 'sole Head of State'.\n\nRodriguez has moved to consolidate power: in March 2026 she ousted longtime Defence Minister Gen. Vladimir Padrino Lopez and replaced him with intelligence chief Gen. Gustavo Gonzalez Lopez. The Trump administration lifted Treasury sanctions on her personally on 1 April 2026 and is openly backing her over opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. Trump told reporters Machado 'didn't have the support needed to run the country in the short term' — a position reportedly driven by a CIA assessment and advice from Secretary Rubio that backing Machado now would destabilise the country. Machado, who polls at ~67% support to Rodriguez's ~25%, has said she expects to return to Venezuela before year-end and is pressing Washington for a fast election timetable. The opposition coalition has unified behind her as its presidential candidate. No election date has been announced.\n\nThe original prompt asked whether Rodriguez 'or successor in role' would remain in power. The cleanest operationalisation is: which of the named candidates will be the de facto exerciser of Venezuelan presidential powers on 31 December 2026? This is the same question Polymarket's $80M+ market is resolving, and it captures the multiple plausible scenarios — Rodriguez consolidating, a Maduro-loyalist successor (Jorge Rodriguez, Cabello) replacing her, an opposition transition to Machado, a US-installed transitional figure, or a power vacuum.

### Resolution Criteria

Resolves to whichever option below describes the person who is exercising the substantive powers of the Venezuelan head of state at 23:59 ET on 31 December 2026, as determined by (1) which person is publicly recognised in that role by the US State Department (https://www.state.gov/) and the Venezuelan Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ), (2) confirmatory wire-service reporting from Reuters and AP describing that person as 'president', 'acting president', or 'interim president' of Venezuela, and (3) which person is in fact issuing executive decrees, commanding the FANB, and conducting head-of-state diplomacy. If those signals diverge, resolution prefers the de facto exerciser of executive power inside Venezuela (criterion 3) over formal recognition.\n\nOptions:\n- 'Delcy Rodriguez' — resolves YES if the current acting president is still in that role on 31 Dec 2026, regardless of whether her title has changed (e.g., 'president', 'transitional president').\n- 'Nicolas Maduro' — resolves YES if Maduro is somehow returned to office (e.g., released from US custody and reinstated, recognised by the TSJ as president-in-exile while Rodriguez is treated as a placeholder, or restored after a deal). Note: per Polymarket's framing, simply being the 'legally absent' officeholder while Rodriguez exercises power resolves to 'Delcy Rodriguez', not Maduro — the question is who actually exercises the powers.\n- 'Maria Corina Machado' — resolves YES if Machado is sworn in as president (whether by election, transitional accord, or US-brokered installation).\n- 'Other Chavista (Jorge Rodriguez, Diosdado Cabello, or other PSUV figure)' — resolves YES if Delcy Rodriguez is replaced by another Maduro-era PSUV figure.\n- 'Other / power vacuum / civil war' — resolves YES if no single person is exercising recognised presidential powers, or if the answer is someone not in the above buckets (e.g., a US-appointed administrator, a junta, an opposition figure other than Machado, an election produces a different winner).\n\nPrimary resolution sources: US State Department press releases (https://www.state.gov/), TSJ rulings (http://historico.tsj.gob.ve/), Reuters Venezuela coverage (https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela/), AP, and the official Presidencia de Venezuela channel for executive decrees. Polymarket's 'Venezuela leader end of 2026' market may be referenced as a sanity check but is not the resolution authority.

### Fine Print

The question is about WHO IS EXERCISING POWER, not who holds the legal title. If Maduro remains technically the 'legal' officeholder (as the TSJ initially framed) but Rodriguez or another person is actually running the country at year-end, this resolves to whoever is exercising power. If Rodriguez's formal title changes (e.g., from 'acting' to 'transitional' or 'interim' or 'president'), she still counts as 'Delcy Rodriguez'. If a transitional government is announced but Rodriguez heads it, that is still 'Delcy Rodriguez'. If elections are held by 31 Dec 2026 and a winner is sworn in before that date, the new sworn-in president resolves the question; if a winner is declared but not yet sworn in, the still-serving incumbent resolves it. If Rodriguez is killed, incapacitated, or formally deposed and replaced by someone outside the named buckets (e.g., the Defence Minister Gen. Gustavo Gonzalez Lopez), resolve to 'Other Chavista...' if the replacement is a Chavismo-aligned figure, or 'Other / power vacuum / civil war' otherwise. A US military occupation administering the country directly (with no Venezuelan figure in charge) resolves to 'Other / power vacuum / civil war'. Source ambiguity at the deadline: defer to Reuters and AP wire reporting in the 24 hours either side of 23:59 ET on 31 Dec 2026.