# Which airlines will take control of the takeoff and landing slots at LaGuardia that were held by Spirit Airlines prior to their May 2026 bankruptcy?

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## Forecast

Top outcome: Frontier Airlines at 55.9%. Other leading outcomes: JetBlue Airways: 21.5%; Other airline(s): 21.3%; Southwest Airlines: 18.0%; American Airlines: 16.1%.

Generated: June 29, 2026 at 10:36 PM UTC
Forecast model: gpt-5.5
Research model: gpt-5.5

## Analysis

## TL;DR
Frontier Airlines is the most likely recipient because the FAA/DOT signal for a low-cost carrier, the Port Authority terminal issue, and the prior JetBlue-Frontier divestiture plan all point to a low-fare, small-incumbent operator ([Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/spirits-laguardia-slot-sale-kicks-off-high-stakes-airport-fight), [Port Authority response, Doc. 1181](https://document.epiq11.com/document/getdocumentbycode?docId=4583099&projectCode=SPJ&source=DM), [JetBlue/Frontier 2023 divestiture agreement](https://news.jetblue.com/latest-news/press-release-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Frontier-Announce-Divestiture-Agreement-in-Connection-with-JetBlues-Combination-with-Spirit/default.aspx)). I put Frontier at 56%, with JetBlue, Other airline(s), Southwest, and American as real secondary paths because the sale can be split or reshaped by regulators. Delta, United, and Alaska are long shots.

## Context
Spirit announced on May 2, 2026 that it had started an immediate wind-down and cancelled all flights, leaving its LaGuardia operating rights idle ([Spirit wind-down release](https://www.spiritrestructuring.com/resources/Spirit-Airlines-Begins-Orderly-Wind-Down-of-Operations.pdf)). As of June 29, 2026 at 22:28 UTC, I found no final FAA, DOT, court, Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, or WSJ allocation; the bankruptcy bidding schedule still has the LGA final qualified-bid deadline at June 30, 2026 at 4:00 p.m. Eastern and an auction, if needed, at July 9, 2026 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern ([Spirit bidding procedures motion, Doc. 1117](https://documents.elevenflo.com/uuid_database_8_14_23/09ccbccb-ca58-4b5e-8623-336463c4daae.pdf)).

The key legal fact is that these are not ordinary assets. The FAA says a slot is an authorization to take off or land during a controlled time period, and the FAA's own slot data page says all transfers are subject to prior FAA confirmation ([FAA slot definition](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/slot_definition), [FAA slot data page](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data)). The Port Authority also controls terminal access at LGA, and it told the bankruptcy court that a runway slot alone will not let an airline deplane passengers safely without gates and aeronautical infrastructure ([Port Authority response, Doc. 1181](https://document.epiq11.com/document/getdocumentbycode?docId=4583099&projectCode=SPJ&source=DM)).

## Evidence
The historical backbone favors low-cost carriers and limited incumbents. In the Delta-US Airways slot swap, DOT required divestitures and used an FAA auction in which JetBlue bought eight LGA slot pairs and WestJet bought eight LGA slot pairs; only carriers with under 5% of the relevant airport's slots and without a disqualifying codeshare could bid, and JetBlue was barred from taking both LGA bundles even though it bid highest for all three bundles on offer ([DOT 2011 divestiture result](https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/jetblue-westjet-gain-slots-laguardia-reagan-national-airports)). In the American-US Airways merger settlement, DOJ required 34 LGA slots and related facilities to be divested or transferred to DOJ-approved low-cost-carrier purchasers, with preference for airlines that did not already have a large share of slots or gates ([DOJ 2013 merger settlement](https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-requires-us-airways-and-american-airlines-divest-facilities-seven-key)). The closest analogue is even stronger: in June 2023 JetBlue and Frontier signed a deal under which JetBlue would transfer all Spirit LGA holdings to Frontier, mainly six Marine Air Terminal gates and 22 takeoff and landing slots, subject to Port Authority and FAA/DOT approval ([JetBlue/Frontier 2023 divestiture agreement](https://news.jetblue.com/latest-news/press-release-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Frontier-Announce-Divestiture-Agreement-in-Connection-with-JetBlues-Combination-with-Spirit/default.aspx)).

The current slot map makes that precedent matter. The baseline below is the FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder report, generated December 5, 2025, with status date 2025; it excludes FAA-held slots and slots held less than five days, and the FAA data page was last updated January 21, 2026 ([FAA Summer 2025 LGA Holder Totals](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_HOLDER_TOTALS.pdf), [FAA slot data page](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data)). The unit is one operating authorization, not a round-trip pair; Spirit's 22 OAs are roughly 11 pairs if the arrival and departure times can be paired cleanly.

| Holder | FAA-listed LGA slots | Share of 1,141 listed slots |
|---|---:|---:|
| Delta Air Lines | 511 | 44.8% |
| American Airlines | 327 | 28.7% |
| United Airlines | 94 | 8.2% |
| Southwest Airlines | 57 | 5.0% |
| Air Canada | 43 | 3.8% |
| JetBlue Airways | 31 | 2.7% |
| Spirit Airlines | 22 | 1.9% |
| WestJet | 16 | 1.4% |
| Republic Airways | 15 | 1.3% |
| Alaska Airlines | 12 | 1.1% |
| Endeavor Air | 9 | 0.8% |
| Frontier Airlines | 4 | 0.4% |

Delta and American together held 73.4% of the listed LGA slots in that FAA holder report, before regional-carrier operating details. Frontier held only four, and JetBlue held 31. That is why I discount Delta heavily and discount American despite its money and strategic motive.

The live regulatory signal points the same way. Bloomberg Law reported that FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said the former Spirit slots should go to a low-cost carrier or be retired, and that the sale process is a fight between creditor recovery and regional competition ([Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/spirits-laguardia-slot-sale-kicks-off-high-stakes-airport-fight)). The FAA's June 23, 2026 LGA order keeps the LGA operating-limitations regime in force until October 28, 2028, maintains 71 scheduled operating authorizations per hour during controlled hours, imposes an 80% usage requirement, allows trades and leases only with FAA written approval, and lets the FAA retire surrendered, withdrawn, or unassigned OAs while hourly totals remain above 71 ([Federal Register/GovInfo LGA order, June 23, 2026](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-06-23/pdf/2026-12592.pdf)). The Port Authority adds another filter: it says a buyer may need to assume Spirit's Marine Air Terminal lease and cure defaults, and warns that moving the flights into Terminals B and C could cause crowding and allow anti-competitive non-use of the slots ([Port Authority response, Doc. 1181](https://document.epiq11.com/document/getdocumentbycode?docId=4583099&projectCode=SPJ&source=DM)).

The carrier-specific evidence leaves Frontier ahead but not safe. Frontier is the only named airline that already agreed to take this exact package, and it is the cleanest match for the low-fare/small-incumbent policy goal ([JetBlue/Frontier 2023 divestiture agreement](https://news.jetblue.com/latest-news/press-release-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Frontier-Announce-Divestiture-Agreement-in-Connection-with-JetBlues-Combination-with-Spirit/default.aspx)). The weakness is price and execution: Spirit valued the LGA slots near $87 million, and Frontier reported $974 million of total liquidity at March 31, 2026 while also reporting a difficult first quarter ([The Points Guy, May 28, 2026](https://thepointsguy.com/news/spirit-laguardia-slots/), [Frontier Q1 2026 results](https://ir.flyfrontier.com/news-events/news/news-details/2026/Frontier-Airlines-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx)). JetBlue has a New York brand and said it is evaluating LGA opportunities, but it also told Bloomberg Law it is mindful of the significant costs of operating at New York-area airports ([Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/spirits-laguardia-slot-sale-kicks-off-high-stakes-airport-fight)). Southwest has better financial capacity, with $3.3 billion in cash and a $1.5 billion revolver at March 31, 2026, and is still plausible as a regulator-acceptable low-fare carrier ([Southwest Q1 2026 results](https://www.southwestairlinesinvestorrelations.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1923/southwest-airlines-reports-first-quarter-results-business-transformation-initiatives-deliver-meaningful-margin-expansion)). American has the deepest wallet among the realistic bidders, ending Q1 2026 with $10.8 billion of liquidity, but its 327 FAA-listed LGA holder slots make approval much harder ([American Q1 2026 results](https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/american-airlines-reports-first-quarter-2026-financial-results), [FAA Summer 2025 LGA Holder Totals](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_HOLDER_TOTALS.pdf)).

I modeled the outcome as four paths: 63% for a single-buyer bankruptcy sale that later gets regulatory and airport approval, 24% for a split or conditioned sale, 6% for an FAA-pool or lottery-style reallocation after a failed or partial sale, and 7% for retirement, litigation, or no clear allocation by the resolution deadline. The marginal probabilities are inclusive, so a split sale can make several options true at once. This gives Frontier 56%, JetBlue 22%, Other airline(s) 21%, Southwest 18%, American 16%, United 4%, Delta 2%, and Alaska 2%.

## What's non-obvious
The obvious model is that the highest bidder buys the slots. That is wrong here. The bankruptcy estate can choose the highest or otherwise best bid, but the FAA must confirm any trade or lease in writing, and the Port Authority can make the terminal question expensive or impossible for a buyer that cannot operate from Terminal A ([Spirit bidding procedures motion, Doc. 1117](https://documents.elevenflo.com/uuid_database_8_14_23/09ccbccb-ca58-4b5e-8623-336463c4daae.pdf), [Federal Register/GovInfo LGA order, June 23, 2026](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-06-23/pdf/2026-12592.pdf), [Port Authority response, Doc. 1181](https://document.epiq11.com/document/getdocumentbycode?docId=4583099&projectCode=SPJ&source=DM)).

The second non-obvious point is that Other airline(s) is not a rounding error. Bloomberg Law reported that Porter said it is interested in more LGA slots, contingent on the allocation process being defined, and that the Port Authority letter named several airlines interested in entering or expanding at its airports, including Allegiant and Frontier as well as foreign carriers ([Bloomberg Law, June 17, 2026](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/spirits-laguardia-slot-sale-kicks-off-high-stakes-airport-fight)). Porter, Allegiant, Breeze, Air Canada, WestJet, or a foreign preclearance carrier are less likely than Frontier individually, but collectively they are a serious path if the FAA or Port Authority rejects a big-incumbent result or wants a competitive split.

## Limitations
No qualified-bidder list, bid amounts, sale order, FAA confirmation, or final DOT/FAA allocation was public by the forecast cutoff. The bid deadline falls after this forecast, and one court filing or leak after June 29, 2026 could move the numbers sharply.

There is also a unit ambiguity. FAA's reports count 22 individual operating authorizations for Spirit, while airline coverage often speaks loosely about slots and slot pairs; The Points Guy explained that 22 slots translate to roughly 12 daily flights because airlines generally need separate takeoff and landing slots ([FAA Summer 2025 LGA Holder Totals](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_HOLDER_TOTALS.pdf), [The Points Guy, May 28, 2026](https://thepointsguy.com/news/spirit-laguardia-slots/)). That affects how easy a split is, but not the identity of the most likely recipients.

Finally, retirement is a real path but not an airline option. I treat the FAA retiring slots, or the process remaining unresolved through May 2, 2028, as a roughly 7% residual that suppresses every listed airline's YES probability rather than adding to Other airline(s).

## Sources

- Domain Expert Search (mcp)
  > Found 9 subagent groups for 'US airline competition policy airport slots LaGuardia FAA DOT bankruptcy asset sale Spirit Airlines':
- bts Transtats (mcp)
  > Yearly Passengers at LGA — 2014..2024
- Federalregister (mcp)
  > Federal Register Search Results (as of 2026-06-29)
- [federalregister.gov](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/06/23/2026-12593/staffing-related-relief-concerning-operations-at-ronald-reagan-washington-national-airport-john-f) (tool)
- Court Listener (mcp)
  > Found 12 total dockets (showing 1-10):
- [federalregister.gov](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/06/23/2026-12603/notice-of-submission-deadline-for-schedule-information-for-chicago-ohare-international-airport-john) (tool)
- [federalregister.gov](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/02/18/2026-03102/united-states-v-reddy-ice-llc-et-al-proposed-final-judgment-and-competitive-impact-statement) (tool)
- News (mcp)
  > Found 10 merged articles (asknews: 4, perigon: 4, both: 2).
- [thestreet.com](https://www.thestreet.com/travel/spirit-airlines-went-bankrupt-for-good-and-flyers-will-pay) (tool)
- [wsj.com](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-05-28-2026/card/the-faa-wants-spirit-airlines-spirit-to-live-on-at-laguardia-aqSpLYUFeeoEO2xKU8RM) (tool)
- [thepointsguy.com](https://thepointsguy.com/news/spirit-airlines-port-authority-laguardia-flight-sale) (tool)
- [simpleflying.com](https://simpleflying.com/spirit-airlines-laguardia-slots-87-million-not-budget-carriers) (tool)
- [thepointsguy.com](https://thepointsguy.com/news/airline-status-match-spirit-elite-members) (tool)
- [qz.com](https://qz.com/jetblue-frontier-spirit-airlines-shutdown-market-share-050426) (tool)
- [simpleflying.com](https://simpleflying.com/spirit-airlines-22-coveted-laguardia-slots-go-to-highest-bidder-valued-87-million) (tool)
- [newsweek.com](https://www.newsweek.com/spirit-airlines-shutdown-report-jetblue-frontier-shares-jump-11904179) (tool)
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- [bizjournals.com](https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2026/05/01/spirit-airlines-american-airlines-clt-low-cost.html) (tool)
- Aviationstack (mcp)
  > Routes operated by NK from LGA
- tsa Checkpoints (mcp)
  > TSA Checkpoint Trend Summary (US air-travel demand)
- doj (mcp)
  > Tool doj_search_press_releases on doj returned an error:
- [errors.pydantic.dev](https://errors.pydantic.dev/2.13/v/unexpected_keyword_argument) (tool)
- Domain Expert Research Task (mcp)
  > Job domain_expert_research_task_0f9c5008fb done after 275503ms.
- [en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaGuardia_Airport) (tool)
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- [viewfromthewing.com](https://viewfromthewing.com/faa-lets-airlines-keep-new-york-airport-slots-without-flying-blocking-competition-another-year) (tool)
- [ch-aviation.com](https://www.ch-aviation.com/news/168636-us-faa-extends-slot-relief-at-new-york-airports-to-4q27) (tool)
- [govinfo.gov](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-06-23/pdf/2026-12589.pdf) (tool)
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- [faa.gov](https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/limited-waiver-slot-usage-requirement-dca-jfk-and-lga) (tool)
- [news.bloomberglaw.com](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/spirits-laguardia-slot-sale-kicks-off-high-stakes-airport-fight) (tool)
- [thepointsguy.com](https://thepointsguy.com/news/spirit-laguardia-slots) (tool)
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- [news.bloomberglaw.com](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/ny-port-authority-objects-to-spirit-push-to-sell-laguardia-slots) (tool)
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- [en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spirit_Airlines) (tool)
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- [news.bloomberglaw.com](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/spirit-airlines-wins-court-approval-to-market-laguardia-slots) (tool)
- [flymag.com](https://flymag.com/spirits-laguardia-slots-are-about-to-become-one-of-the-most-important-airport-auctions-in-the-country) (tool)
- [marketplace.org](https://www.marketplace.org/story/2026/06/25/spirit-to-auction-80-million-in-takeoff-and-landing-slots-at-lga) (tool)
- [pacermonitor.com](https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/59856292/Spirit_Aviation_Holdings,_Inc) (tool)
- [fleet-wire.com](https://fleet-wire.com/frontier-american-vie-for-spirits-laguardia-slots) (tool)
- [flightglobal.com](https://www.flightglobal.com/spirit-airlines/2026/06/bankrupt-spirit-moves-to-auction-airbus-jets-and-other-assets-bidders-emerge) (tool)
- [govinfo.gov](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2011-07-28/html/2011-18939.htm) (tool)
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- [pillsburylaw.com](https://www.pillsburylaw.com/a/web/1252/ABA-KeithleyBerlin-Nov32015.pdf) (tool)
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- [enotrans.org](https://enotrans.org/article/aviation-antitrust-house-members-debate-competition-regulation-after-spirit-airlines-shutdown) (tool)

## Question Details

On May 2, 2026, Spirit Airlines ceased operations and began liquidating its assets following bankruptcy, canceling all flights and vacating facilities including its operations at LaGuardia Airport (LGA) in New York. (opb.org) Spirit had been the sole tenant of the Marine Air Terminal at LaGuardia and held a portfolio of FAA-controlled takeoff and landing slots at this slot-constrained airport. (en.wikipedia.org) In a liquidation scenario, such slots are valuable assets that may be reassigned by regulators (e.g., the FAA and U.S. Department of Transportation) or transferred/sold through bankruptcy proceedings to other airlines. This question asks which airlines will ultimately take control (through purchase, transfer, or regulatory reallocation) of the LaGuardia slot pairs that were held by Spirit Airlines immediately prior to its shutdown on May 2, 2026. The resolution will consider developments from May 2, 2026 onward until a clear, authoritative allocation of the majority of these slots has occurred.

### Resolution Criteria

This question will resolve based on publicly reported final allocation(s) of Spirit Airlines' former LaGuardia (LGA) slot pairs. Primary sources for resolution will include: - Official announcements or orders from the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) or Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) - Bankruptcy court filings or rulings related to Spirit Airlines asset disposition - Confirmed reporting from major reputable news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP News, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal) Each listed airline option will be considered "true" if it is confirmed to have obtained control of at least one slot pair formerly held by Spirit at LGA, whether via purchase, lease, or regulatory reassignment. If multiple airlines acquire slots, multiple options may resolve as true. If no clear or final allocation is reported by May 2, 2028, the question will be annulled.

### Fine Print

- "Control" includes ownership, long-term lease, or formal allocation of slot usage rights sufficient to operate scheduled service at LGA. - Temporary or emergency use of slots (e.g., short-term accommodation flights immediately after shutdown) does not count unless later formalized. - If a merger or acquisition results in slots being transferred indirectly (e.g., via acquisition of Spirit assets), the acquiring airline counts. - If slots are returned to a general FAA pool and later redistributed, the eventual recipient airlines count. - If an airline ceases to exist or merges before resolution, its successor entity is credited. - Options are not mutually exclusive: multiple airlines may receive portions of the slot portfolio.