# What percentage of Russian seaborne crude oil export loading capacity will be offline at end of June 2026 due to Ukrainian strikes (vs the H2 2025 baseline)?

Canonical URL: https://preseen.com/reports/d5d14d07-227a-4034-aeb0-2393c9a045d8/what-percentage-of-russian-seaborne-crude-oil-export-loading-capacity-will-be-of
Markdown URL: https://preseen.com/reports/d5d14d07-227a-4034-aeb0-2393c9a045d8/markdown

## Forecast

Median forecast: 22.8; 80% interval: 6.8 to 37.2.

Generated: May 24, 2026 at 7:02 PM UTC
Forecast model: gpt-5.5
Research model: gpt-5.5

## Analysis

## TL;DR
I forecast **23%** of the H2 2025 Russian seaborne crude loading-capacity baseline will resolve as offline for 1–28 June 2026, with most probability between 10% and 40%.

## Context
Russia entered late May in a repair-and-restrike equilibrium. The late-March peak was large: Reuters put about 2.0 mb/d, or 40%, of Russian oil export capacity offline on March 25, with Primorsk and Ust-Luga loadings suspended and Novorossiysk below schedule ([Reuters via The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/25/ukrainian-drone-strikes-halt-at-least-40-of-russias-oil-export-capacity-reuters-a92339)). ([themoscowtimes.com](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/25/ukrainian-drone-strikes-halt-at-least-40-of-russias-oil-export-capacity-reuters-a92339)) But it decayed fast: by April 2, Reuters sources put the disabled share at about 1.0 mb/d, or 20%, and by May 17 Bloomberg tanker tracking showed nationwide seaborne crude shipments averaging 3.61 mb/d over 28 days after all Novorossiysk crude berths were again in use ([Reuters via Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/exclusiverussian-oil-output-cuts-are-unavoidable-as-drone-attacks-shrink-exports-sources-say-4595120); [Bloomberg via BusinessMirror](https://businessmirror.com.ph/2026/05/20/russian-oil-flows-rebound-as-key-black-sea-port-fully-restarted/)). ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/exclusiverussian-oil-output-cuts-are-unavoidable-as-drone-attacks-shrink-exports-sources-say-4595120))

The clean-recovery case is weaker after the latest strikes. Ukraine renewed attacks after a short ceasefire, including a May 13 strike package against oil and gas infrastructure, a May 23 strike on Sheskharis and Grushova at Novorossiysk, and a May 24 strike on an oil-loading pier at Tamanneftegaz, whose stated oil-and-product transshipment capacity is up to 20 million tonnes per year ([Reuters via Internazionale](https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/05/13/ukraine-says-it-struck-russian-oil-gas-infrastructure); [Reuters via Internazionale](https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/05/23/ukraine-says-it-hit-russia-s-sheskharis-oil-terminal-on-black-sea); [Ukrinform](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4126694-ukraines-forces-strike-oil-terminal-naval-vessels-in-russias-krasnodar-krai.html)). ([internazionale.it](https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/05/13/ukraine-says-it-struck-russian-oil-gas-infrastructure))

## Evidence
The historical backbone is that the March outage was severe but did not behave like a permanent loss of terminal capacity. Reuters’ March 25 capacity snapshot was 40%, while Reuters’ April 2 update was 20% ([Reuters via The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/25/ukrainian-drone-strikes-halt-at-least-40-of-russias-oil-export-capacity-reuters-a92339); [Reuters via Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/exclusiverussian-oil-output-cuts-are-unavoidable-as-drone-attacks-shrink-exports-sources-say-4595120)). ([themoscowtimes.com](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/25/ukrainian-drone-strikes-halt-at-least-40-of-russias-oil-export-capacity-reuters-a92339)) KSE’s Kpler-based port work, accessed April 7 and published April 9, shows why: Primorsk crude loadings stayed near 780 kb/d and then 848 kb/d in the two disruption weeks, while Ust-Luga crude loadings fell from 725 kb/d in the week of March 16–22 to 101 kb/d and 155 kb/d in the next two weeks ([KSE Institute](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/KSE_Drone-Strike-Impact-Assessment_April-9-2026.pdf)). ([sanctions.kse.ua](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/KSE_Drone-Strike-Impact-Assessment_April-9-2026.pdf)) That reference class says full halts can last days to two weeks, while storage or berth damage can leave a longer partial drag.

The best public time series for the fallback path is the IEA/Kpler/Argus Russian export table, published May 13. Units are mb/d; annual values cover full calendar years, and 2026 values are monthly averages through April. The last column is my calculation of the fallback formula, \((1-E/5.0)\times100\), where \(E\) is seaborne crude exports in mb/d ([IEA May Oil Market Report PDF](https://factorenergetico.mx/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/OilMarketReport_May-2026.pdf)). ([factorenergetico.mx](https://factorenergetico.mx/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/OilMarketReport_May-2026.pdf))

| Period | Seaborne crude exports, mb/d | Fallback value vs 5.0 mb/d |
|---|---:|---:|
| 2022 | 3.25 | 35.0% |
| 2023 | 3.52 | 29.6% |
| 2024 | 3.47 | 30.6% |
| 2025 | 3.47 | 30.6% |
| Jan. 2026 | 3.40 | 32.0% |
| Feb. 2026 | 3.24 | 35.2% |
| Mar. 2026 | 3.57 | 28.6% |
| Apr. 2026 | 3.76 | 24.8% |

The current flow evidence points to repair, not collapse. Reuters estimated that Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk handled 2.35–2.4 mb/d of Urals, KEBCO, and Siberian Light during May 1–15, up from about 2.2 mb/d in April; the same report put Novorossiysk near 0.7 mb/d, Primorsk just over 1.1 mb/d, and Ust-Luga near 0.6 mb/d ([Reuters via Maritime Professional](https://www.maritimeprofessional.com/news/western-russian-ports-increase-exports-419267)). ([]()) Bloomberg’s 28-day seaborne crude average to May 17 was 3.61 mb/d, which would mechanically resolve to 27.8% under the fallback even though the article said Novorossiysk’s crude berths had restarted ([Bloomberg via BusinessMirror](https://businessmirror.com.ph/2026/05/20/russian-oil-flows-rebound-as-key-black-sea-port-fully-restarted/)). ([]()) S&P Global’s April seaborne crude estimate was even higher at 3.949 mb/d, a six-month high, which maps to 21.0% under the same fallback formula ([S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/050526-russian-crude-exports-jump-8-on-sanctions-relief-supply-fears)). ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/050526-russian-crude-exports-jump-8-on-sanctions-relief-supply-fears))

The fresh strike evidence keeps the right tail alive. Reuters reported Ukraine’s claim that it hit Sheskharis, Grushova, and the tanker Chrysalis on May 23, and quoted Ukraine’s drone-force commander saying Ukrainian drones had attacked 13 major Russian oil facilities in the first 23 days of May; Reuters could not independently verify those Ukrainian damage claims ([Reuters via Internazionale](https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/05/23/ukraine-says-it-hit-russia-s-sheskharis-oil-terminal-on-black-sea)). ([]()) AP separately reported that local authorities said drone debris caused a fire at a Novorossiysk oil terminal and that Ukraine’s General Staff named Sheskharis as the target ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-drones-oil-refinery-9e5b15b9cf8cf80882da6f7a23b88848)).  Tamanneftegaz adds a smaller and murkier risk because the public source gives oil-plus-product capacity, not a crude-only berth loss ([Ukrinform](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4126694-ukraines-forces-strike-oil-terminal-naval-vessels-in-russias-krasnodar-krai.html)). ([ukrinform.net](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4126694-ukraines-forces-strike-oil-terminal-naval-vessels-in-russias-krasnodar-krai.html))

My model uses the 5.0 mb/d denominator from the resolution rule. I split the outcome into a lower engineering path and a higher fallback path. On the engineering path, I center June strike-attributable capacity offline in the mid-teens: residual and new damage at Novorossiysk and Tamanneftegaz, small residual Baltic risk, and a large chance of more June attacks, offset by Russia’s demonstrated ability to restart loadings within weeks. On the fallback path, I center June seaborne crude exports near 3.6–3.8 mb/d, which resolves in the mid-20s even if the ports are mostly usable. The resulting distribution has a mean of 23%, a median of 23%, a 10th percentile near 7%, and a 90th percentile near 37%. I put 17% below 10%, 41% between 10% and 25%, 34% between 25% and 40%, and 8% above 40%.

## What's non-obvious
The March 40% headline is stale as a central engineering estimate. KSE’s data show that the crude hit was concentrated at Ust-Luga, not uniform across every large port, and Reuters/Bloomberg flow data show enough repair by mid-May to make a persistent 40% physical outage unlikely without a new June shock ([KSE Institute](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/KSE_Drone-Strike-Impact-Assessment_April-9-2026.pdf); [Reuters via Maritime Professional](https://www.maritimeprofessional.com/news/western-russian-ports-increase-exports-419267); [Bloomberg via BusinessMirror](https://businessmirror.com.ph/2026/05/20/russian-oil-flows-rebound-as-key-black-sea-port-fully-restarted/)). ([sanctions.kse.ua](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/KSE_Drone-Strike-Impact-Assessment_April-9-2026.pdf))

The opposite error is to treat recovered shipments as a near-zero resolved value. The fallback compares actual June seaborne crude exports with a 5.0 mb/d capacity denominator, while the IEA series shows ordinary seaborne crude exports were only 3.25–3.76 mb/d in 2022 through April 2026 ([IEA May Oil Market Report PDF](https://factorenergetico.mx/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/OilMarketReport_May-2026.pdf)). ([factorenergetico.mx](https://factorenergetico.mx/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/OilMarketReport_May-2026.pdf)) The IEA also says refinery attacks have cut domestic use and lifted Russian crude exports, which means high crude shipments can coexist with heavy energy-infrastructure damage ([IEA May Oil Market Report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-may-2026)). ([iea.org](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-may-2026))

## Limitations
The largest gap is berth-level damage after the May 23–24 Black Sea strikes. Public reporting confirms fires, Ukrainian claims, and Russian local statements, but not a crude-only capacity loss or repair schedule ([Reuters via Internazionale](https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/05/23/ukraine-says-it-hit-russia-s-sheskharis-oil-terminal-on-black-sea); [AP](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-drones-oil-refinery-9e5b15b9cf8cf80882da6f7a23b88848); [Ukrinform](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4126694-ukraines-forces-strike-oil-terminal-naval-vessels-in-russias-krasnodar-krai.html)). ([]())

The second gap is definition risk. Reuters or Bloomberg may publish flow stories but not a clean late-June capacity stocktake. In that case the fallback can produce a value in the 20s for reasons that are not all Ukrainian-caused loading damage: OPEC+ behavior, refinery outages, tanker availability, sanctions waivers, weather, and cargo timing. The third gap is source disagreement. CREA’s April bulletin describes a large month-on-month seaborne crude drop after strikes, while IEA, S&P Global, Reuters, and Bloomberg flow measures show April-to-mid-May recovery; I treat that as a timing and classification problem rather than a reason to trust one series mechanically ([CREA](https://energyandcleanair.org/april-2026-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/); [IEA May Oil Market Report PDF](https://factorenergetico.mx/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/OilMarketReport_May-2026.pdf); [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/050526-russian-crude-exports-jump-8-on-sanctions-relief-supply-fears); [Bloomberg via BusinessMirror](https://businessmirror.com.ph/2026/05/20/russian-oil-flows-rebound-as-key-black-sea-port-fully-restarted/)). ([energyandcleanair.org](https://energyandcleanair.org/april-2026-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/))

## Sources

- [Ukrainian Drone Strikes Halt at Least 40% of Russia’s Oil Export Capacity – Reuters - The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/25/ukrainian-drone-strikes-halt-at-least-40-of-russias-oil-export-capacity-reuters-a92339) (openai)
- [Exclusive-Russian oil output cuts are unavoidable as drone attacks shrink exports, sources say By Reuters](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/exclusiverussian-oil-output-cuts-are-unavoidable-as-drone-attacks-shrink-exports-sources-say-4595120) (openai)
- [Ukraine says it struck Russian oil, gas infrastructure - Internazionale](https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/05/13/ukraine-says-it-struck-russian-oil-gas-infrastructure) (openai)
- [sanctions.kse.ua](https://sanctions.kse.ua/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/KSE_Drone-Strike-Impact-Assessment_April-9-2026.pdf) (openai)
- [factorenergetico.mx](https://factorenergetico.mx/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/OilMarketReport_May-2026.pdf) (openai)
- [Russian crude exports jump 8% on sanctions relief, supply fears | S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/050526-russian-crude-exports-jump-8-on-sanctions-relief-supply-fears) (openai)
- [Ukraine’s forces strike oil terminal, naval vessels in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4126694-ukraines-forces-strike-oil-terminal-naval-vessels-in-russias-krasnodar-krai.html) (openai)
- [Oil Market Report - May 2026 – Analysis - IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-may-2026) (openai)
- [April 2026 — Monthly analysis of Russian fossil fuel exports and sanctions – Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air](https://energyandcleanair.org/april-2026-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions) (openai)
- Domain Expert Search (mcp)
  > Found 5 subagent groups for 'Russian oil exports terminals Ukrainian strikes repair timelines seaborne crude capacity':
- imf Portwatch (mcp)
  > No ports found matching query 'Primorsk' and country 'Russia'.
- Domain Expert Research Task (mcp)
  > Job domain_expert_research_task_4dd175e84f done after 342993ms.
- [marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/at-least-40-of-russia-s-oil-export-capacity-halted-reuters-calculations-show-ce7e5ed3dc8dff25) (tool)
- [pravda.com.ua](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/04/02/8028472) (tool)
- [wsau.com](https://wsau.com/2026/04/03/russian-oil-terminals-under-attack-unable-to-accept-shipments-for-second-week-sources-say) (tool)
- [logistics.maritimeprofessional.com](https://logistics.maritimeprofessional.com/transportation/2026/04/10/early-april-russia-increases-oil-exports-through-western-ports-despite-drone-attacks) (tool)
- [interfax.com](https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/117535) (tool)
- [bloomberg.com](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-05/russia-boosts-oil-exports-to-earn-the-most-since-the-ukraine-war-began) (tool)
- [businessmirror.com.ph](https://businessmirror.com.ph/2026/05/20/russian-oil-flows-rebound-as-key-black-sea-port-fully-restarted) (tool)
- [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/russias-primorsk-port-hit-as-ukraine-launches-wave-of-drone-strikes-4654818) (tool)
- [tbsnews.net](https://www.tbsnews.net/worldbiz/europe/ukrainian-drones-strike-russias-ust-luga-port-again-sources-say-oil-terminal-hit) (tool)
- [unn.ua](https://unn.ua/en/news/russias-novorossiysk-port-partially-resumed-oil-shipments-after-drone-attack-reuters) (tool)
- [streetinsider.com](https://www.streetinsider.com/Reuters/Russia%27s%2BBaltic%2Bports%2Bhalt%2Boil%2Bloadings%2Bafter%2Bmassive%2BUkrainian%2Bdrone%2Battack%2C%2Bsources%2Bsay/26212150.html) (tool)
- [bloomberg.com](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-26/key-russian-oil-port-resumes-loading-amid-attempt-to-divert-flow) (tool)
- [ukrinform.net](https://www.ukrinform.net/amp/rubric-economy/4108586-drone-strikes-disable-40-of-russias-primorsk-port-storage-reuters.html) (tool)
- [bloomberg.com](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-17/russia-s-main-black-sea-port-resumes-loading-crude-at-key-berth) (tool)
- [streetinsider.com](https://www.streetinsider.com/Reuters/Falling%2Bdrone%2Bdebris%2Btriggers%2Bfire%2Bat%2Boil%2Bterminal%2Bin%2BRussias%2BNovorossiysk/26543238.html) (tool)
- [theprint.in](https://theprint.in/world/russias-novorossiisk-oil-infrastructure-hit-by-drone-attack-early-on-friday-sources-say/2090077) (tool)
- [bloomberg.com](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-15/russia-s-primorsk-port-resumes-oil-loadings-after-drone-attacks) (tool)
- [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/russias-black-sea-port-of-novorossiysk-suspends-oil-exports-after-ukrainian-drone-attack-sources-say-4358046) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/bd5d03a3e3515f0a3b5b48031bc2c18c) (tool)
- [iea.org](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-may-2026?language=pt) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/bee2f1620f4ba958e3af54f4b6bf7f47) (tool)
- [logistics.maritimeprofessional.com](https://logistics.maritimeprofessional.com/oil-pipeline/2026/03/26/sources-russia-resumes-loading-oil-at-primorsk-but-not-to-full-capacity) (tool)
- [tankterminals.com](https://tankterminals.com/news/russias-baltic-ust-luga-port-resumes-oil-exports-sources-say-and-lseg-data-shows) (tool)
- [pravda.com.ua](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/04/07/8029180/index.amp) (tool)
- [unn.ua](https://unn.ua/en/news/russian-baltic-ports-again-suspend-oil-shipments-after-drone-attack-reuters) (tool)
- [babel.ua](https://babel.ua/en/news/125987-reuters-russian-port-of-primorsk-lost-over-40-of-oil-tanks-due-to-ukrainian-attacks-in-march) (tool)
- [whbl.com](https://whbl.com/2026/04/03/russian-oil-terminals-under-attack-unable-to-accept-shipments-for-second-week-sources-say) (tool)
- [newsukraine.rbc.ua](https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/russia-s-largest-black-sea-port-operating-1776101678.html) (tool)
- [marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ukraine-says-it-hit-russia-s-sheskharis-oil-terminal-on-black-sea-ce7f5adcdf8ef220) (tool)
- [spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/040226-russian-crude-deliveries-reach-three-year-high-as-loadings-fall-amid-ukrainian-attacks) (tool)
- [brecorder.com](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40418907/russian-oil-exports-steady-may-rise-in-may) (tool)
- [maritimeprofessional.com](https://www.maritimeprofessional.com/news/western-russian-ports-increase-exports-419267) (tool)
- [maritimeprofessional.com](https://www.maritimeprofessional.com/news/primorsk-port-partially-resumes-loadings-409980) (tool)
- [themoscowtimes.com](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/11/17/novorossiysk-oil-terminal-resumes-operations-after-ukrainian-attack-kazakh-minister-says-a91140/pdf) (tool)
- [frontnews.eu](https://frontnews.eu/en/news/details/73372) (tool)
- [bloomberg.com](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-02/russia-baltic-crude-terminal-looks-undamaged-in-satellite-images) (tool)
- Claude Code (e2b)
  > Job coding_whiz_job_1bc502d6da done after 354132ms.
- [themoscowtimes.com](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/31/russian-oil-exports-fall-by-175m-bpd-as-drones-assaults-baltic-ports-a92392) (tool)

## Question Details

Through 2024-2025, Russia's seaborne crude export loading capacity ran at roughly 5 million barrels per day, concentrated in a small number of terminals: Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic, Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, and Kozmino on the Pacific. In late March 2026, after a sustained Ukrainian drone campaign hit Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossiysk - and after disputed CPC pipeline damage and tanker seizures - Reuters calculated that at least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity (~2 mb/d) was halted, the worst disruption in modern Russian history. Carnegie measured that actual shipments fell from ~5.2 to ~3.5 mb/d (a 33% drop) between 25 March and 11 April 2026.\n\nRussia has been working hard to restore loading: Ust-Luga was back to roughly half pre-strike volumes by 7 April per Carnegie. But Ukraine has not stopped: drone strikes hit Tuapse on 16 and 20 April, Kstovo, Ufa, and a Leningrad-region refinery in early-to-mid April, and the Atlantic Council and Adapt Institute both characterize Ukraine's spring 2026 campaign as a deliberate escalation. Reuters (21 April) reports Russia is now slashing April crude output 300-400 kbpd, the sharpest monthly decline since the COVID era. The IEA expects Russian refining to stay below 5 mb/d until at least mid-2026.\n\nThis question forecasts how much of Russia's seaborne crude export loading capacity is offline at the end of June 2026 - i.e., does the strike-vs-repair race resolve toward (a) full or near-full restoration (well under 10% offline, similar to 2024 baseline disruption levels), (b) a persistent moderate impairment (10-25%), (c) something close to the late-March peak (30-45%), or (d) something even worse if Ukraine sustains or escalates the campaign through Q2. The question deliberately tracks export loading specifically (not total refining throughput), because the late-March 40% figure that anchors the prompt was about export loading capacity.

### Resolution Criteria

Resolves to the percentage of Russia's seaborne crude oil export loading capacity that is unavailable for use at end-of-June 2026 (averaged across the four-week window 1 June 2026 through 28 June 2026) due to physical damage, fire, or operational suspension caused by Ukrainian strikes or other Ukrainian operations (drones, missiles, sabotage, naval action), expressed as a percentage of the H2 2025 baseline loading capacity rounded to one decimal place.\n\nNumerator: average daily mb/d of crude export loading capacity offline at the four named primary terminals (Primorsk, Ust-Luga, Novorossiysk, Kozmino) and any additional Russian seaborne crude export terminal that was operational in H2 2025, attributable to Ukrainian action, across the resolution window.\n\nDenominator: total H2 2025 baseline loading capacity at those terminals as reported by the most recent published Reuters or Bloomberg stocktake. As a fixed fallback the denominator is 5.0 mb/d (the working figure used in Reuters' 25 March 2026 calculation that 2 mb/d = ~40%).\n\nPrimary resolution source: an end-of-June or early-July 2026 Reuters or Bloomberg stocktake article that explicitly quantifies Russian oil export capacity offline due to Ukrainian strikes, analogous to the 25 March 2026 Reuters calculation (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/03/25/ukrainian-drone-strikes-halt-at-least-40-of-russias-oil-export-capacity-reuters-a92339).\n\nFallback resolution path if no such article exists by 14 July 2026: compute (1 - June 2026 average seaborne crude exports in mb/d as reported by CREA's Russia Fossil Tracker / Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air monthly bulletin / 5.0 mb/d) * 100, floored at 0. If CREA's June 2026 figure is unavailable, use Kpler's June 2026 Russian seaborne crude export average. If multiple sources differ by more than 5 percentage points, use the simple average of Reuters and CREA.

### Fine Print

'Offline due to Ukrainian operations' includes capacity unavailable because of (a) direct physical damage from Ukrainian drones/missiles, (b) precautionary shutdowns following nearby Ukrainian strikes, (c) Ukrainian seizures or attacks on tankers loading at Russian ports, and (d) damage to dedicated export pipelines feeding the four terminals (e.g., CPC). It does NOT include offline capacity caused by routine maintenance, OPEC+ quota cuts, sanctions-driven self-limitation, or weather. Pacific exports to China via Kozmino count as seaborne. Pipeline exports (Druzhba, ESPO into China) do NOT count - the metric is seaborne loading. Refining capacity that is offline does NOT count toward this question unless it specifically removes seaborne crude export volume (refined products are not 'crude'). If the four-terminal H2 2025 baseline cannot be reconstructed by resolvers, use 5.0 mb/d. If a comprehensive ceasefire silences Ukrainian strikes before June and all damaged terminals fully repair, the answer can be near 0%. The question resolves on realized capacity, not on whether terminals are 'legally open'.