# Will Bolivian president Rodrigo Paz Pereira remain in power through the end of 2026?

Canonical URL: https://preseen.com/reports/d00afd8c-a01f-436e-8a0a-ab00bd585021/will-bolivian-president-rodrigo-paz-pereira-remain-in-power-through-the-end-of-2
Markdown URL: https://preseen.com/reports/d00afd8c-a01f-436e-8a0a-ab00bd585021/markdown

## Forecast

P(Yes): 75.0%; P(No): 25.0%.

Generated: June 20, 2026 at 11:00 AM UTC
Resolution check date: 2027-01-02
Forecast model: gpt-5.5
Research model: gpt-5.5

## Analysis

## TL;DR
I estimate a 75% chance that Rodrigo Paz Pereira remains president of Bolivia continuously through 31 December 2026. The June 20 agreement with the COB split the protest coalition and gives Paz a real survival path, but the same-day state-of-exception order to clear roads raises the risk of a lethal crackdown. The main NO path is a renewed blockade-crackdown-security-force cascade, not a normal recall or routine congressional removal.

## Context
Rodrigo Paz Pereira is the incumbent president; Bolivia’s official presidency page lists him as president, and the electoral authority proclaimed that his PDC ticket won the 19 October 2025 runoff with 3,579,534 valid votes, or 54.96%, before he took office on 8 November 2025 ([Presidencia de Bolivia](https://presidencia.gob.bo/index.php/presidente-de-bolivia/), [OEP, 27 Oct 2025](https://web.oep.org.bo/institucional-institucional/tse-proclama-resultados-oficiales-de-la-segunda-vuelta-electoral/)). The forecast window is short: from 20 June 2026 to 23:59 Bolivia time on 31 December 2026.

The current crisis is severe and live. On 20 June, El País reported that Paz and COB leader Mario Argollo signed a pacification agreement after 50 days of protests and 14 deaths, but campesino-indigenous sectors called COB leaders traitors and resisted the deal ([El País, 20 Jun 2026](https://elpais.com/america/2026-06-20/paz-y-los-manifestantes-firman-un-acuerdo-para-pacificar-bolivia-despues-de-50-dias-de-protestas-y-14-muertos.html)). Hours later, Infobae, citing EFE and official messages, reported that Paz declared a nationwide state of exception, ordered police and armed-forces support to reopen roads, and said the measure barred blockades and violent weapons while not suspending normal rights ([Infobae, 20 Jun 2026](https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2026/06/20/rodrigo-paz-declaro-el-estado-de-excepcion-en-bolivia-para-liberar-las-rutas-del-pais-los-bolivianos-no-pueden-seguir-siendo-rehenes/)).

## Evidence
Bolivia’s modern base rate is bad for presidents in acute street crises. Since the 1982 democratic transition, I count three clear protest/security-driven presidential exits: Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada in 2003, Carlos Mesa in 2005, and Evo Morales in 2019. The full comparable sequence is:

| Administration | Outcome before normal handoff | Forecast use |
|---|---|---|
| Hernán Siles Zuazo, 1982-1985 | Early elections and shortened term amid economic collapse and social unrest ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/place/Bolivia/Restoration-of-civilian-government)) | Soft early-exit analogue |
| Víctor Paz Estenssoro, 1985-1989 | Completed term ([Georgetown chronology](https://pdba.georgetown.edu/Executive/Bolivia/pres.html)) | Survival baseline |
| Jaime Paz Zamora, 1989-1993 | Completed term ([Georgetown chronology](https://pdba.georgetown.edu/Executive/Bolivia/pres.html)) | Survival baseline |
| Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada I, 1993-1997 | Completed term ([Georgetown chronology](https://pdba.georgetown.edu/Executive/Bolivia/pres.html)) | Survival baseline |
| Hugo Banzer, 1997-2001 | Resigned for illness; Jorge Quiroga succeeded him ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/place/Bolivia/Restoration-of-civilian-government)) | Non-political early-exit baseline |
| Jorge Quiroga, 2001-2002 | Completed inherited term ([Georgetown chronology](https://pdba.georgetown.edu/Executive/Bolivia/pres.html)) | Succession can stabilize |
| Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada II, 2002-2003 | Resigned after protests and loss of allies; Mesa took office ([Washington Post, 18 Oct 2003](https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2003/10/18/protests-force-bolivian-leader-to-resign/40cd44ad-700d-4fb5-9298-b3d87e319e38/)) | Close analogue |
| Carlos Mesa, 2003-2005 | Resigned in June 2005 amid renewed conflict ([IACHR/OAS report](https://cidh.org/pdf%20files/BOLIVIA.07.ENG.pdf)) | Close analogue |
| Eduardo Rodríguez Veltzé, 2005-2006 | Completed caretaker transition ([Georgetown chronology](https://pdba.georgetown.edu/Executive/Bolivia/pres.html)) | Survival after succession |
| Evo Morales, 2006-2019 | Resigned on 10 November 2019 after protests, an OAS electoral report, and an armed-forces chief request to step down ([Human Rights Watch, 2020](https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2020/country-chapters/bolivia)) | Close analogue |
| Jeanine Áñez, 2019-2020 | Completed interim handoff after the 2020 election ([Library of Congress, 2019](https://www.loc.gov/item/global-legal-monitor/2019-12-13/bolivia-special-elections-called-after-president-morales-resigns/)) | Interim survival baseline |
| Luis Arce, 2020-2025 | Completed term; Paz succeeded him on 8 November 2025 ([IPU Parline](https://data.ipu.org/parliament/BO/BO-LC01/election/BO-LC01-E20250817/)) | Recent survival baseline |

The crude country base rate alone would be far too low. Three protest/security exits over roughly 44 years imply only about a 4% generic half-year risk. Paz is not in a generic half-year. The Defensoría del Pueblo’s report covering 1 May to 2 June 2026 recorded 103 blockade points in seven departments on 2 June, severe shortages in La Paz, El Alto, Oruro, Potosí, Sucre, and Trinidad, at least seven police or military operations in three departments, and 365 arrests by its 2 June cutoff ([Defensoría del Pueblo, 1 May-2 Jun 2026](https://www.defensoria.gob.bo/uploads/files/segundo-reporte-preliminar-sobre-la-conflictividad-social-en-bolivia-del-1%C2%B0-de-mayo-al-2-de-junio-2026.pdf)). AP reported on 9 June that protesters demanding Paz’s resignation had set up about 90 blockades, isolating major cities including La Paz and El Alto ([AP, 9 Jun 2026](https://apnews.com/article/bolivia-protests-e2f71fb33b704a679cbebfd3d84311ab)).

The current crisis also has classic executive-stress signs. El País reported on 3 June that the defense and education ministers resigned, the third cabinet resignation in ten days, while around 100 road cuts affected seven of nine departments and daily protests in La Paz called for Paz to resign ([El País, 3 Jun 2026](https://elpais.com/america/2026-06-03/renuncian-dos-ministros-del-gobierno-boliviano-tras-un-mes-de-protestas.html)). The macro trigger is still there: Bolivia’s statistics institute reported May 2026 CPI inflation of 2.13% month-on-month and 12.51% year-on-year, with the La Paz conurbation up 5.41% in May alone ([INE Bolivia, 3 Jun 2026](https://www.ine.gob.bo/index.php/bolivia-registro-una-variacion-de-213-en-el-indice-de-precios-al-consumidor-en-mayo-de-2026/)). The IMF’s 2025 Article IV said Bolivia’s macro outlook under then-current policies was unsustainable, with rising balance-of-payments and fiscal-crisis risks and usable foreign exchange reserves expected to remain close to zero ([IMF, 2 Jun 2025](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/cr/issues/2025/06/02/bolivia-2025-article-iv-consultation-press-release-staff-report-and-statement-by-the-567384)).

The institutional picture is weaker for Paz than a normal new president, but stronger than a president already on the way out. Bolivia’s constitution says a president ceases by death, resignation to the Legislative Assembly, definitive absence or impediment, final criminal conviction, or recall; recall can be requested only after at least half the mandate has elapsed and not in the final year, which rules out a normal recall before the end of 2026 for a five-year term that began on 8 November 2025 ([Constitute Project, Bolivia Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Bolivia_2009)). Paz’s PDC is the largest force but not a majority: IPU reports 49 of 130 deputies and 16 of 36 senators for PDC, while MAS has only two deputies and no Senate seats listed ([IPU Chamber of Deputies](https://data.ipu.org/parliament/BO/BO-LC01/election/BO-LC01-E20250817/), [IPU Senate](https://data.ipu.org/parliament/BO/BO-UC01/election/BO-UC01-E20250817/)). That makes resignation under street, elite, and security pressure much more plausible than a clean legal removal.

The most important new evidence cuts both ways. On the positive side for Paz, the COB moved from resignation as the central demand toward detainees and negotiable economic demands on 18 June, then signed the 20 June agreement; Infobae reported official counts of 46 blockades on 19 June, down from more than 100 earlier in the crisis ([El País, 18 Jun 2026](https://elpais.com/america/2026-06-18/los-manifestantes-en-bolivia-exigen-la-libertad-de-los-sindicalistas-presos-para-levantar-las-protestas.html), [Infobae, 20 Jun 2026](https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2026/06/20/rodrigo-paz-declaro-el-estado-de-excepcion-en-bolivia-para-liberar-las-rutas-del-pais-los-bolivianos-no-pueden-seguir-siendo-rehenes/)). On the negative side, the state-of-exception order creates exactly the risk mechanism that ended past Bolivian presidencies: deaths from a clearing operation, urban opinion turning, coalition allies defecting, and police or military commanders refusing to carry the president.

My model uses three hazards for the remaining 2026 window. I assign 16.5% to loss of office from the current blockade/state-of-exception crisis through late August, 8.5% to a later renewed economic or legislative crisis from September through December, and 1.8% to other discontinuities such as death, incapacity, coup dynamics not captured by the protest path, or an unexpected court action. Combining them as separate hazards gives 1 - (1 - 0.165) x (1 - 0.085) x (1 - 0.018) = 25.0% NO, so the YES probability is 75.0%.

## What's non-obvious
The obvious read is that Bolivia is blockaded and presidents have fallen for less. The missed point is that the protest coalition has fractured before Paz lost the security forces. The COB agreement, the fall in reported blockade points, and campesino-indigenous anger at COB leaders all point to a government strategy that is working enough to avoid an immediate resignation cascade ([El País, 20 Jun 2026](https://elpais.com/america/2026-06-20/paz-y-los-manifestantes-firman-un-acuerdo-para-pacificar-bolivia-despues-de-50-dias-de-protestas-y-14-muertos.html)).

The state of exception is not a simple bad signal. If it clears remaining roads after the COB has peeled away, it can strengthen Paz by restoring food and fuel flows. If it produces a large direct death toll or a police-military split, it can turn a fragmented protest into a 2003-style removal crisis. That fork is the core of the forecast.

## Limitations
This forecast rests on reporting available during the morning of 20 June 2026, and the ground situation is changing by the hour. The state-of-exception decree had just been reported, so I could not verify its full legal text, the exact rules of engagement, or whether the armed forces were actually clearing roads at scale ([Infobae, 20 Jun 2026](https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2026/06/20/rodrigo-paz-declaro-el-estado-de-excepcion-en-bolivia-para-liberar-las-rutas-del-pais-los-bolivianos-no-pueden-seguir-siendo-rehenes/)).

I found no reliable June 2026 national polling on Paz approval, support for resignation, or public tolerance for military road-clearing. I also do not have private information on police morale, military-command intent, Vice President Edmand Lara’s calculations, or whether PDC and opposition legislators would prefer succession over a weakened Paz. Those hidden variables decide Bolivian presidential collapses once protests and shortages are already severe.

## Sources

- Domain Expert Search (mcp)
  > Found 14 subagent groups for 'Bolivia political crisis Rodrigo Paz Pereira protests military police elite defections presidential survival 2026':
- Acled (mcp)
  > {
- [data.humdata.org](https://data.humdata.org/dataset/c946742e-cf48-4d8f-8338-4f030768ca14/resource/4e98e767-d28d-4711-b575-ded17a0421ce/download/demonstration-events.xlsx) (tool)
- [developer.mozilla.org](https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/404) (tool)
- Domain Expert Research Task (mcp)
  > Job domain_expert_research_task_de984bd6e8 done after 368706ms.
- Vdem (mcp)
  > v2x_polyarchy
- Gsod (mcp)
  > Democracy Trends: Bolivia (BOL)
- ewp (mcp)
  > EWP Risk Assessment 2025 (1 countries)
- [elpais.com](https://elpais.com/america/2026-06-20/paz-y-los-manifestantes-firman-un-acuerdo-para-pacificar-bolivia-despues-de-50-dias-de-protestas-y-14-muertos.html) (tool)
- [senapi.gob.bo](https://www.senapi.gob.bo/normativas/constitucion-politica-del-estado/constitucion-politica-del-estado-plurinacional-de-bolivia) (tool)
- [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/bolivian-minister-rules-out-presidents-resignation-despite-ongoing-unrest-4715335) (tool)
- [efe.com](https://efe.com/mundo/2026-06-08/rodrigo-paz-presidente-bolivia-protestas) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/7ac8f394f2e420ca928188e9f46c61ff) (tool)
- [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/bolivia-votes-in-runoff-election-marking-promarket-shift-and-us-embrace-4295841) (tool)
- [data.ipu.org](https://data.ipu.org/parliament/BO/BO-UC01/election/BO-UC01-E20250817) (tool)
- [elpais.com](https://elpais.com/america/2026-04-20/paz-reprueba-en-los-comicios-locales-y-se-queda-con-dos-de-nueve-gobernaciones-en-bolivia.html) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/e2f71fb33b704a679cbebfd3d84311ab) (tool)
- [elpais.com](https://elpais.com/america/2026-06-16/paz-apuesta-por-desgastar-las-protestas-y-evita-sacar-al-ejercito-para-resolver-la-crisis-en-bolivia.html) (tool)
- [aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/20/bolivian-president-to-reshuffle-cabinet-amid-anti-government-protests) (tool)
- [aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/6/7/bolivias-legislature-passes-law-allowing-use-of-troops-against-protesters) (tool)
- [bolivia.infoleyes.com](https://bolivia.infoleyes.com/articulo/8644) (tool)
- [bolivia.com](https://www.bolivia.com/actualidad/nacionales/vicepresidente-lara-rompe-el-silencio-sobre-rodrigo-paz-y-asegura-que-dejar-el-cargo-no-soluciona-nada-583115) (tool)
- [infobae.com](https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2026/02/24/un-decreto-de-rodrigo-paz-limita-las-facultades-del-vicepresidente-y-genera-el-rechazo-de-edmand-lara?outputType=amp-type) (tool)
- [aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/5/22/bolivia-in-crisis-social-unrest-demands-for-president-to-resign-escalate) (tool)
- [english.elpais.com](https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-06-14/evo-morales-our-demands-will-only-be-met-when-we-are-in-power.html) (tool)
- [infobae.com](https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2026/06/02/crece-la-presion-contra-rodrigo-paz-en-bolivia-un-diputado-centrista-planteo-un-referendum-revocatorio?outputType=amp-type) (tool)
- [washingtonpost.com](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/05/19/bolivia-protests-evo-rodrigo-paz/4eab796c-539d-11f1-9c40-7a0a12d9e745_story.html) (tool)
- [efe.com](https://efe.com/mundo/2026-06-03/bolivia-rodrigo-paz-protestas-dimision-presidente-ministros-renuncia) (tool)
- [elpais.com](https://elpais.com/america/2026-06-18/los-manifestantes-en-bolivia-exigen-la-libertad-de-los-sindicalistas-presos-para-levantar-las-protestas.html) (tool)
- [bolivia.infoleyes.com](https://bolivia.infoleyes.com/articulo/8650) (tool)
- [infobae.com](https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2026/06/09/el-ministro-de-defensa-aseguro-que-el-ejercito-de-bolivia-actuara-con-legalidad-y-serenidad-frente-a-los-bloqueos?outputType=amp-type) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/bolivia-protests-e2f71fb33b704a679cbebfd3d84311ab) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/bolivia-protests-evo-rodrigo-paz-7ac8f394f2e420ca928188e9f46c61ff) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/bolivia-rodrigo-paz-protests-evo-morales-movement-toward-socialism-3df9cc7c109570302a2fe7f8fe58d933) (tool)
- [efe.com](https://efe.com/mundo/2026-06-02/rodrigo-paz-presidente-bolivia-reaccion-protestas) (tool)
- [efe.com](https://efe.com/mundo/2026-06-02/bolivia-referendum-revocatorio-paz) (tool)
- [euronews.com](https://www.euronews.com/2026/06/03/bolivian-ministers-resign-as-weeks-of-protests-against-economic-crisis-rock-government) (tool)
- [infobae.com](https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2026/06/09/el-ministro-de-defensa-aseguro-que-el-ejercito-de-bolivia-actuara-con-legalidad-y-serenidad-frente-a-los-bloqueos) (tool)
- [infobae.com](https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2026/02/24/un-decreto-de-rodrigo-paz-limita-las-facultades-del-vicepresidente-y-genera-el-rechazo-de-edmand-lara) (tool)
- [infobae.com](https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2026/06/02/crece-la-presion-contra-rodrigo-paz-en-bolivia-un-diputado-centrista-planteo-un-referendum-revocatorio) (tool)
- [bolivia.com](https://www.bolivia.com/actualidad/politica/evo-dice-que-no-es-constitucional-usar-a-la-policia-y-a-las-ffaa-para-los-desbloqueos-583837) (tool)
- [amp.dw.com](https://amp.dw.com/es/paz-dice-que-di%C3%A1logo-levanta-algunos-bloqueos-en-bolivia/a-77540401) (tool)
- [infobae.com](https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2026/06/20/rodrigo-paz-declaro-el-estado-de-excepcion-en-bolivia-para-liberar-las-rutas-del-pais-los-bolivianos-no-pueden-seguir-siendo-rehenes) (tool)
- [internazionale.it](https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/06/03/bolivia-s-defense-minister-resigns-as-anti-government-protests-intensify) (tool)
- [internazionale.it](https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/05/27/bolivia-clears-path-to-send-troops-onto-streets-to-calm-protests) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/35532ee774130aa57cb8278a384852c3) (tool)
- [infobae.com](https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2026/06/08/rodrigo-paz-promulga-la-ley-que-regula-los-estados-de-excepcion-en-medio-de-una-ola-de-protestas?outputType=amp-type) (tool)
- [swissinfo.ch](https://www.swissinfo.ch/spa/bloqueos-afectan-gran-parte-de-bolivia-mientras-llegan-combustible-y-ox%C3%ADgeno-a-la-paz/91578246) (tool)
- [defensoria.gob.bo](https://www.defensoria.gob.bo/uploads/files/segundo-reporte-preliminar-sobre-la-conflictividad-social-en-bolivia-del-1%C2%B0-de-mayo-al-2-de-junio-2026.pdf) (tool)
- [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/banks-close-branches-in-tense-bolivia-diplomats-call-for-calm-4699855) (tool)

## Question Details

This question asks whether Rodrigo Paz Pereira will continue to hold the office of President of the Plurinational State of Bolivia without interruption through the end of calendar year 2026. Rodrigo Paz Pereira assumed the presidency on 8 November 2025 after winning the 2025 presidential election and is the incumbent president as of June 2026. Recent reporting has described significant political and social unrest, including nationwide protests, road blockades, cabinet resignations, and public calls for his resignation during 2026. (presidencia.gob.bo) (elpais.com) The forecasting period runs from the time the question is asked until 31 December 2026. The question concerns whether Paz remains president continuously through that date.

### Resolution Criteria

Resolve YES if Rodrigo Paz Pereira is still serving as President of Bolivia at 23:59 local time in Bolivia on 31 December 2026 and has not permanently left the office before that moment. Resolve NO if, at any time before that moment, he ceases to be President of Bolivia due to resignation, removal, impeachment, death, incapacity, judicial or constitutional action, military coup, succession, replacement by an acting or permanent president, or any other loss of the presidency. Resolution will be based on official Bolivian government announcements and records. If those are unclear or unavailable, major international news organizations and widely recognized reference sources documenting the officeholder of the Bolivian presidency may be used.

### Fine Print

Temporary foreign travel, medical leave, or short-term delegation of powers does not count as leaving office if Rodrigo Paz Pereira legally remains President. If constitutional succession transfers the presidency to another person, even on an interim basis, before the end of 31 December 2026, the question resolves NO. If he leaves office and later returns before the end of 2026, the question still resolves NO because he did not remain in power continuously through the period. If reliable information sufficient to determine the officeholder is unavailable on the resolution check date, resolution may be delayed until the facts can be established.