# Who will be exercising the powers of the Venezuelan presidency on 31 December 2026? Canonical URL: https://preseen.com/reports/b5e9f1db-82a9-4ddf-a225-0608f15e235c/who-will-be-exercising-the-powers-of-the-venezuelan-presidency-on-31-december-20 Markdown URL: https://preseen.com/reports/b5e9f1db-82a9-4ddf-a225-0608f15e235c/markdown ## Forecast Top outcome: Delcy Rodriguez at 60.8%. Other leading outcomes: Other Chavista (Jorge Rodriguez, Diosdado Cabello, or other PSUV figure): 18.2%; Maria Corina Machado: 13.8%; Other / power vacuum / civil war: 5.5%; Nicolas Maduro: 1.8%. Generated: May 24, 2026 at 7:14 PM UTC Forecast model: gpt-5.5 Research model: gpt-5.5 ## Analysis ## TL;DR Delcy Rodríguez is the forecast winner: I assign her a 60.8% chance, with another Chavista insider the next strongest outcome at 18%. ## Context As of 24 May 2026, Delcy Rodríguez is the incumbent de facto executive. AP reported on 6 April 2026 that she remained acting president after the 90-day temporary-absence limit expired and that no public National Assembly vote extending her term had been seen; the TSJ then treated her as Presidenta Encargada in an April 16 decision reviewing her economic-emergency decree ([AP, 6 Apr. 2026](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-maduro-acting-president-delcy-rodriguez-trump-f33d6fe7407305b513940dfa4f69136c); [TSJ decision, 16 Apr. 2026](https://accesoalajusticia.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/SC-0515-16426.pdf)). The outside-power picture also favors her. The U.S. Treasury removed Delcy Rodríguez from the SDN list on 1 April 2026, the IMF resumed dealings on 16 April 2026 with Venezuela under acting President Delcy Rodríguez, and the World Bank delegation was received by President (A) Delcy Rodríguez on 15 May 2026 ([OFAC, 1 Apr. 2026](https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260401); [IMF, 16 Apr. 2026](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/04/16/pr26123-venezuela-imf-announces-resumption-of-dealings); [World Bank, 15 May 2026](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/05/15/world-bank-group-visit-to-venezuela)). María Corina Machado has the stronger popular mandate, but AP reported on 23 May 2026 that she was still in exile, planned to return before year-end, and that no presidential election date was clear ([AP, 23 May 2026](https://apnews.com/article/panama-venezuela-opposition-machado-nobel-4f3c9306b348040f63a43c82272f141b)). ## Evidence The historical backbone points first to incumbent-coalition continuity. Wright and Bak’s comparison of Archigos leader exits with the Geddes-Wright-Frantz autocratic-regime data finds that over 50% of leadership exits under autocratic rule occur while the incumbent autocratic regime remains in power, using 1946-2004 coverage ([Wright and Bak, 2016](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053168015626606)). Chiozza and Goemans estimate that authoritarian leaders have a 73% chance of surviving at least one year in office; over the 221.4-day window from 24 May 2026 18:58 UTC to 31 December 2026 23:59 ET, a constant-hazard transform gives about 83% same-leader survival before case-specific adjustments ([Chiozza and Goemans, AJPS](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Publications/AJPS_13.pdf)). I cut that down because Rodríguez is an interim leader after foreign intervention, not a normal dictator in steady state. I keep Chavista-aligned control high because the party, TSJ, National Assembly, and security apparatus have not been displaced. The current-control evidence is stronger than the base rate. The TSJ’s 16 April 2026 ruling accepted a decree submitted by Rodríguez in her capacity as Presidenta Encargada after the first 90-day limit had passed; that is direct evidence that the legal system is adjusting to her continued rule rather than removing her ([TSJ decision, 16 Apr. 2026](https://accesoalajusticia.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/SC-0515-16426.pdf)). AP reported on 6 April 2026 that Washington had recognized her as Venezuela’s sole Head of State, and the same article said she had opened the energy sector to private capital and international arbitration while replacing senior Maduro-era officials ([AP, 6 Apr. 2026](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-maduro-acting-president-delcy-rodriguez-trump-f33d6fe7407305b513940dfa4f69136c)). A U.S. Marine embassy drill in Caracas on 23 May 2026, announced beforehand by Venezuela’s government, was another small but useful sign of a working U.S.-Delcy channel ([AP, 23 May 2026](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-military-aircraft-embassy-drill-b8feee6c1add9f2b48a2e1e1a1627579)). The hard-power evidence says her main risk is an insider, not Machado or Maduro. Reuters reported on 18 March 2026 that Rodríguez replaced long-time defense minister Vladimir Padrino López with Gustavo González López, after earlier appointing González to lead the presidential guard and military counterintelligence; the same Reuters report said the move was read as a counter to Diosdado Cabello, described as the biggest threat to her leadership ([Reuters via Investing.com, 18 Mar. 2026](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/venezuela-acting-president-replaces-longtime-defense-minister-4568984)). AP reported on 18 May 2026 that Alex Saab was deported to the United States by acting President Rodríguez as part of a purge of Maduro-linked insiders ([AP, 18 May 2026](https://apnews.com/article/7667d8a1c13777a26506b4433977c7ae)). I read those acts as consolidation, but also as evidence of losers with armed and patronage networks. Machado’s case is electoral, not institutional. Gold Glove’s January 24-30, 2026 nationwide face-to-face survey used 1,000 interviews and stated a 3.1-point margin of error; CSIS summarized the result as Machado’s coalition beating Rodríguez 67% to 25% in a national vote and 68% wanting elections within a year ([Gold Glove Consulting, Feb. 2026](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/02.06.2026-ENG-VZLA-Gold-Glove-PPTX.v3.nd-1-public-2-18-AC-1.pdf); [CSIS, 2 Mar. 2026](https://www.csis.org/analysis/venezuelans-welcome-us-intervention-hope-rapid-democratic-transition-post-maduro)). But AP reported on 23 May 2026 that an election with democratic conditions would take seven to nine months of planning by Machado’s own estimate, and Chatham House’s April 2026 paper says the needed steps would take at least a year if fully implemented, with elections announced at least six months before they are held and a four-month period for primaries ([AP, 23 May 2026](https://apnews.com/article/panama-venezuela-opposition-machado-nobel-4f3c9306b348040f63a43c82272f141b); [Chatham House, Apr. 2026](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/04/democratic-elections-venezuela-wont-happen-overnight-heres-groundwork-thats-needed-first-4)). That makes a Machado inauguration by 31 December possible, but compressed. My arithmetic is a competing-risk model over 7.27 average months. I used a total monthly hazard of 6.9% that Delcy ceases to be the year-end power-holder, then allocated that loss risk 46% to another Chavista, 35% to Machado, 14% to other or vacuum outcomes, and 5% to Maduro. The result is Delcy 60.8%, other Chavista 18%, Machado 14%, other or vacuum 5%, and Maduro 2%. The Maduro tail stays low because Reuters reported that Maduro and Cilia Flores pleaded not guilty in New York on 5 January 2026 after being captured and transferred to U.S. custody, and this question resolves on de facto exercise of power rather than residual legal title ([Reuters archive, 5 Jan. 2026](https://archive.ph/2026.01.05-174915/https%3A/www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelas-maduro-appear-us-court-trump-says-further-strikes-possible-2026-01-05/)). ## What's non-obvious The 90-day legal problem matters less than it looks. If it were a true constraint, Rodríguez would already have had to step down, force a public extension, or call a vacancy process. Instead, AP reported she stayed after the deadline, and the TSJ later reviewed an emergency decree from her as Presidenta Encargada ([AP, 6 Apr. 2026](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-maduro-acting-president-delcy-rodriguez-trump-f33d6fe7407305b513940dfa4f69136c); [TSJ decision, 16 Apr. 2026](https://accesoalajusticia.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/SC-0515-16426.pdf)). In this case, law is following power. The obvious democratic read is also too fast. Machado probably wins a fair election, but the resolution asks who exercises power at one timestamp. The institutions that can deliver that timestamp outcome are the FANB, TSJ, National Assembly, U.S. recognition channel, and decree machinery; those point to Rodríguez now. If she loses them, the lowest-friction replacement is another Chavista manager, not a direct Machado handoff. ## Limitations The largest uncertainty is hidden bargaining among Delcy Rodríguez, Jorge Rodríguez, Diosdado Cabello, Gustavo González López, senior FANB commanders, and U.S. officials. Public evidence shows appointments, recognition, prisoner releases, oil opening, and foreign trips; it does not show private security guarantees or amnesty deals. A U.S. policy reversal, a Cabello-linked security rupture, or a formal election timetable by early summer would move the forecast quickly. Polling is useful only for voter preference. Venezuela’s fear environment, exile population, and weak electoral institutions make it a poor guide to who will command the state on 31 December 2026. I also could not find a clean standalone State Department page carrying the sole Head of State wording; the public record I found is AP reporting, court-filing reporting, and downstream recognition actions by Treasury, the IMF, and the World Bank. ## Sources - Domain Expert Search (mcp) > Found 10 subagent groups for 'Venezuela politics Chavismo Delcy Rodriguez Maduro Machado transition 2026 US recognition decision makers incentives': - hdx Hapi (mcp) > No conflict event data found for the given filters. - Ofac (mcp) > OFAC Sanctions Search Results (as of 2026-05-24) - Vdem (mcp) > Error calling get_democracy_time_series on vdem: HTTPStatusError: Server error '502 Bad Gateway' for url 'http://mcp-nginx:9000/vdem/mcp' - [mcp-nginx](http://mcp-nginx:9000/vdem/mcp) (tool) - [developer.mozilla.org](https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/Status/502) (tool) - Domain Expert Research Task (mcp) > Job domain_expert_research_task_6dc0f82b4b done after 361873ms. - [archive.ph](https://archive.ph/2026.01.04-041433/https%3A/www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelas-supreme-court-orders-delcy-rodriguez-become-interim-president-2026-01-04) (tool) - [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/us-venezuela-agree-to-reestablish-diplomatic-and-consular-relations-4545728) (tool) - [thetimesunion.com](https://www.thetimesunion.com/eu-doesnt-recognize-legitimacy-of-venezuelan-interim-president-european-commission) (tool) - [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/venezuelas-acting-president-rodriguez-in-grenada-for-first-foreign-visit-4606457) (tool) - [Delcy Rodríguez remains Venezuela's acting president after 90-day term expired | AP News](https://apnews.com/article/f33d6fe7407305b513940dfa4f69136c) (openai) - [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/sweeping-oil-reform-in-venezuela-approved-operators-expected-to-gain-autonomy-4474960) (tool) - [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/f116c004d8f480687ae8671093f8dad8) (tool) - [euronews.com](https://www.euronews.com/2026/04/09/venezuela-police-use-tear-gas-against-protesters-demanding-better-pay-and-pensions) (tool) - [Venezuela’s new leader, facing internal division, moves to tighten her grip on power By Reuters](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/venezuelas-new-leader-facing-internal-division-moves-to-tighten-her-grip-on-power-4453155) (openai) - [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/venezuela-acting-president-replaces-longtime-defense-minister-4568984) (tool) - [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/7667d8a1c13777a26506b4433977c7ae) (tool) - [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/machado-says-venezuelan-elections-could-happen-this-year-politico-reports-4487712) (tool) - [br.investing.com](https://br.investing.com/news/commodities-news/nao-ha-plano-para-eleicoes-imediatas-na-venezuela-diz-presidente-da-assembleia-1829253) (tool) - [es.mercopress.com](https://es.mercopress.com/2026/02/13/encuesta-citada-por-el-ft-venezolanos-muestran-mas-optimismo-tras-la-captura-de-maduro) (tool) - [Venezuela's Machado eyes return home from exile before end of 2026 | AP News](https://apnews.com/article/4f3c9306b348040f63a43c82272f141b) (openai) - [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/maduro-set-to-appear-in-us-court-to-face-narcoterrorismcharges-4428787) (tool) - [ksl.com](https://www.ksl.com/article/51473195/nicolas-maduro-heads-back-to-court-arguing-that-the-us-is-trying-to-hamstring-his-defense) (tool) - [en.mercopress.com](https://en.mercopress.com/2026/03/12/u.s.-formalizes-before-court-its-recognition-of-delcy-rodriguez-as-venezuela-s-state-authority) (tool) - [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/d819e64fcdefa132c5b06c3ce0a81f88) (tool) - [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/a437b1fa15b0bc91453ecdeecb327bb8) (tool) - Views (mcp) > ViEWS Conflict Forecasts: Venezuela (VEN) - [justice.gov](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-classified-information-profit-prediction-market-bets) (tool) - [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/us-pursuing-second-criminal-investigation-into-maduro-sources-say-4700147) (tool) - [state.gov](https://www.state.gov/translations/french/allocution-du-secretaire-detat-marco-rubio-lors-de-la-50e-reunion-ordinaire-de-la-conference-des-chefs-de-gouvernement-de-la-caricom) (tool) - [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/cbbc1313091abb965fcd7b74174a7a8e) (tool) - [regulations.justia.com](https://regulations.justia.com/regulations/fedreg/2026/04/07/2026-06723.html) (tool) - [gmanetwork.com](https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/world/971590/venezuela-s-supreme-court-orders-delcy-rodriguez-become-interim-president/story) (tool) - [elpais.com](https://elpais.com/america/2026-05-04/el-supremo-de-venezuela-se-reorganiza-con-suplentes-mientras-se-buscan-nuevos-candidatos.html) (tool) - [gmanetwork.com](https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/world/971627/venezuela-military-recognizes-maduro-s-vp-delcy-rodriguez-as-acting-president/story) (tool) - [gbm.com](https://gbm.com/media/noticia/presidenta-encargada-de-venezuela-designa-nuevo-alto-mando-militar) (tool) - [longbridge.com](https://longbridge.com/en/news/275380293) (tool) - [wlrn.org](https://www.wlrn.org/2026-02-13/nbc-news-venezuelan-president-delcy-rodriguez-pledges-free-and-fair-elections-but-no-future-date) (tool) - [britannica.com](https://www.britannica.com/place/Panama/Invasion-of-Panama) (tool) - [britannica.com](https://www.britannica.com/place/Haiti/Military-regimes-and-the-Duvaliers) (tool) - [britannica.com](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Alfredo-Stroessner) (tool) - [britannica.com](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Alberto-Fujimori) (tool) - [britannica.com](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Jeanine-Anez) (tool) - [britannica.com](https://www.britannica.com/topic/history-of-Nicaragua) (tool) - [britannica.com](https://www.britannica.com/place/Cuba/The-Republic-of-Cuba) (tool) - [elpais.com](https://elpais.com/america/2026-04-05/delcy-rodriguez-tres-meses-en-la-presidencia-de-venezuela-bajo-la-mirada-de-trump.html) (tool) - [whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/operation-absolute-resolve-january-3-2026) (tool) - [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/delcy-rodriguez-formally-sworn-in-as-venezuelas-interim-president-4430673) (tool) - [laiguana.tv](https://www.laiguana.tv/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/USA-Statement-of-Interest-11-March-2026.pdf) (openai) ## Question Details On 3 January 2026 a US military operation captured Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores in Caracas and extradited them to the United States, where Maduro is now jailed in New York awaiting trial. Two days later, Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) declared Maduro's situation a 'temporary absence' and swore in Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as acting president, with a constitutional 90-day cap that the National Assembly could extend to six months by formal vote. The 90-day deadline expired on 4 April 2026 without a public Assembly extension vote, but Rodriguez has remained in office, and the US State Department has formally recognised her as Venezuela's 'sole Head of State'.\n\nRodriguez has moved to consolidate power: in March 2026 she ousted longtime Defence Minister Gen. Vladimir Padrino Lopez and replaced him with intelligence chief Gen. Gustavo Gonzalez Lopez. The Trump administration lifted Treasury sanctions on her personally on 1 April 2026 and is openly backing her over opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. Trump told reporters Machado 'didn't have the support needed to run the country in the short term' — a position reportedly driven by a CIA assessment and advice from Secretary Rubio that backing Machado now would destabilise the country. Machado, who polls at ~67% support to Rodriguez's ~25%, has said she expects to return to Venezuela before year-end and is pressing Washington for a fast election timetable. The opposition coalition has unified behind her as its presidential candidate. No election date has been announced.\n\nThe original prompt asked whether Rodriguez 'or successor in role' would remain in power. The cleanest operationalisation is: which of the named candidates will be the de facto exerciser of Venezuelan presidential powers on 31 December 2026? This is the same question Polymarket's $80M+ market is resolving, and it captures the multiple plausible scenarios — Rodriguez consolidating, a Maduro-loyalist successor (Jorge Rodriguez, Cabello) replacing her, an opposition transition to Machado, a US-installed transitional figure, or a power vacuum. ### Resolution Criteria Resolves to whichever option below describes the person who is exercising the substantive powers of the Venezuelan head of state at 23:59 ET on 31 December 2026, as determined by (1) which person is publicly recognised in that role by the US State Department (https://www.state.gov/) and the Venezuelan Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ), (2) confirmatory wire-service reporting from Reuters and AP describing that person as 'president', 'acting president', or 'interim president' of Venezuela, and (3) which person is in fact issuing executive decrees, commanding the FANB, and conducting head-of-state diplomacy. If those signals diverge, resolution prefers the de facto exerciser of executive power inside Venezuela (criterion 3) over formal recognition.\n\nOptions:\n- 'Delcy Rodriguez' — resolves YES if the current acting president is still in that role on 31 Dec 2026, regardless of whether her title has changed (e.g., 'president', 'transitional president').\n- 'Nicolas Maduro' — resolves YES if Maduro is somehow returned to office (e.g., released from US custody and reinstated, recognised by the TSJ as president-in-exile while Rodriguez is treated as a placeholder, or restored after a deal). Note: per Polymarket's framing, simply being the 'legally absent' officeholder while Rodriguez exercises power resolves to 'Delcy Rodriguez', not Maduro — the question is who actually exercises the powers.\n- 'Maria Corina Machado' — resolves YES if Machado is sworn in as president (whether by election, transitional accord, or US-brokered installation).\n- 'Other Chavista (Jorge Rodriguez, Diosdado Cabello, or other PSUV figure)' — resolves YES if Delcy Rodriguez is replaced by another Maduro-era PSUV figure.\n- 'Other / power vacuum / civil war' — resolves YES if no single person is exercising recognised presidential powers, or if the answer is someone not in the above buckets (e.g., a US-appointed administrator, a junta, an opposition figure other than Machado, an election produces a different winner).\n\nPrimary resolution sources: US State Department press releases (https://www.state.gov/), TSJ rulings (http://historico.tsj.gob.ve/), Reuters Venezuela coverage (https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela/), AP, and the official Presidencia de Venezuela channel for executive decrees. Polymarket's 'Venezuela leader end of 2026' market may be referenced as a sanity check but is not the resolution authority. ### Fine Print The question is about WHO IS EXERCISING POWER, not who holds the legal title. If Maduro remains technically the 'legal' officeholder (as the TSJ initially framed) but Rodriguez or another person is actually running the country at year-end, this resolves to whoever is exercising power. If Rodriguez's formal title changes (e.g., from 'acting' to 'transitional' or 'interim' or 'president'), she still counts as 'Delcy Rodriguez'. If a transitional government is announced but Rodriguez heads it, that is still 'Delcy Rodriguez'. If elections are held by 31 Dec 2026 and a winner is sworn in before that date, the new sworn-in president resolves the question; if a winner is declared but not yet sworn in, the still-serving incumbent resolves it. If Rodriguez is killed, incapacitated, or formally deposed and replaced by someone outside the named buckets (e.g., the Defence Minister Gen. Gustavo Gonzalez Lopez), resolve to 'Other Chavista...' if the replacement is a Chavismo-aligned figure, or 'Other / power vacuum / civil war' otherwise. A US military occupation administering the country directly (with no Venezuelan figure in charge) resolves to 'Other / power vacuum / civil war'. Source ambiguity at the deadline: defer to Reuters and AP wire reporting in the 24 hours either side of 23:59 ET on 31 Dec 2026.