# How many tonnes of cocoa beans will the Ivory Coast produce in 2026?

Canonical URL: https://preseen.com/reports/a63fcaef-e8be-49ca-8ee7-397f6673239a/how-many-tonnes-of-cocoa-beans-will-the-ivory-coast-produce-in-2026
Markdown URL: https://preseen.com/reports/a63fcaef-e8be-49ca-8ee7-397f6673239a/markdown

## Forecast

Median forecast: 1,980,000; 80% interval: 1,780,000 to 2,160,000.

Generated: September 13, 2026 at 5:33 PM UTC
Forecast model: gpt-5.6-sol
Research model: gpt-5.6-sol

## Analysis

## TL;DR

My best single estimate is **1.98 million metric tonnes** of cocoa beans in Côte d’Ivoire during calendar year 2026. The forecast median is 1.978 million tonnes, the mean is 1.967 million, and the **80% interval is 1.77–2.15 million tonnes**. The strong 2025/26 crop raises the first eight months of 2026, while the delayed and smaller 2026/27 main crop pulls down the final four months.

## Context

The target is January 1–December 31, 2026, not one cocoa marketing season. ICCO normally organizes production around October–September cocoa years and its August 31, 2026 bulletin temporarily withheld 2025/26 production estimates, while FAOSTAT defines this series as the amount produced “in the year” and currently covers 1961–2024 ([ICCO](https://www.icco.org/category/latest-news/); [FAOSTAT via Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production)).

Côte d’Ivoire’s national annual statistics are the best guide to the eventual FAOSTAT number. ANStat reported 1,890,774.9 tonnes for 2024, only 332.9 tonnes above FAOSTAT’s 1,890,442, then reported 1,840,311.5 tonnes for 2025 in a bulletin published April 1, 2026 ([ANStat](https://anstat.ci/publication-details/c51aa56992899b5ee3b2d7d4ae74c5c06d561cae8bc6bdfc0b0890a491bf5da113c82d61a4bbd4ea85558cc887673a170e27f274045c0b97e48efaf8feddd510vPJSjtqw8lMd-e7HtAy4_cokGHH-PScengJddHn4vjY); [FAOSTAT via Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production)).

## Evidence

The historical backbone is FAOSTAT’s full 64-observation annual series. The unit is metric tonnes, the coverage window is 1961–2024, and the vintage used here was updated February 25, 2026 ([metadata](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production)).

| Year | Production ([FAOSTAT](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production)) | Year | Production ([FAOSTAT](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production)) | Year | Production ([FAOSTAT](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production)) | Year | Production ([FAOSTAT](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production)) |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 1961 | 85,000 | 1977 | 303,621 | 1993 | 803,799 | 2009 | 1,223,153 |
| 1962 | 110,000 | 1978 | 318,381 | 1994 | 808,662 | 2010 | 1,301,347 |
| 1963 | 115,000 | 1979 | 397,759 | 1995 | 1,120,000 | 2011 | 1,511,255 |
| 1964 | 139,069 | 1980 | 417,222 | 1996 | 1,235,300 | 2012 | 1,485,882 |
| 1965 | 121,772 | 1981 | 464,751 | 1997 | 1,119,110 | 2013 | 1,448,992 |
| 1966 | 149,662 | 1982 | 360,445 | 1998 | 1,201,119 | 2014 | 1,637,777.5 |
| 1967 | 146,640 | 1983 | 411,081 | 1999 | 1,163,025 | 2015 | 1,796,000 |
| 1968 | 144,476 | 1984 | 565,042 | 2000 | 1,401,101 | 2016 | 1,634,000 |
| 1969 | 180,706 | 1985 | 555,115 | 2001 | 1,212,428 | 2017 | 2,034,000 |
| 1970 | 179,156 | 1986 | 610,680 | 2002 | 1,264,708 | 2018 | 2,113,189 |
| 1971 | 225,814 | 1987 | 664,031 | 2003 | 1,351,546 | 2019 | 2,235,043 |
| 1972 | 185,445 | 1988 | 832,177 | 2004 | 1,407,213 | 2020 | 2,200,000 |
| 1973 | 208,522 | 1989 | 780,521 | 2005 | 1,286,330 | 2021 | 2,228,459 |
| 1974 | 241,511 | 1990 | 807,501 | 2006 | 1,408,854 | 2022 | 2,358,991 |
| 1975 | 231,136 | 1991 | 764,708 | 2007 | 1,229,908 | 2023 | 1,822,441 |
| 1976 | 232,330 | 1992 | 813,009 | 2008 | 1,382,441 | 2024 | 1,890,442 |

The modern prior is volatile. The 2015–2024 mean is 2.031 million tonnes, with a sample standard deviation of 236,000 tonnes; annual log changes over 2000–2024 have a sample standard deviation of 10.9%. The 2023 fall from 2,358,991 to 1,822,441 tonnes was 22.7%, so a narrow forecast would be false precision ([FAOSTAT series](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production)).

The first decision-relevant edge is that 2026 started much better than 2025. ANStat measured 334,221.3 tonnes in January–March 2025, then reported first-quarter 2026 production growth of 43.6%; applying that published growth rate gives roughly 480,000 tonnes for January–March 2026 ([ANStat March 2025](https://www.anstat.ci/assets/publications/files/File_val_indicateur1756715638.pdf); [ANStat March 2026, published July 24](https://anstat.ci/publication-details/a4ca4ecc05a1b3425449e208dd6460022de68699fdff79573a1b9774601a904e819bd536231fa23d6240a7e75a752e929fdc1a74c6db02a7e040027e9932b58b98EhI_QCc-qTQLkDvVgMCc1MbVrpnJzs6VXZLLYAWcI)). The government’s current macro framework separately projects cocoa production growth of 11.4% in 2026, which maps the 2025 national total to about 2.05 million tonnes ([Côte d’Ivoire economic portal](https://www.economie-ivoirienne.ci/cadre-macroeconomique/pib-optique-offre.html)).

The second edge is the size of the nearly finished 2025/26 crop. On May 21, the Coffee and Cocoa Council’s director forecast 2.0–2.1 million tonnes for the season and said arrivals had passed 1.7 million tonnes by May 11 ([Reuters](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ivory-coast-expects-cocoa-output-to-rise-10-5-in-2025-26-season-regulator-says-ce7f5aded18af022)). Exporter data later put cumulative arrivals at 1.996 million tonnes on August 16 and 1.999 million on August 23, with only 3,000 tonnes arriving in the latter week ([ADMIS August review](https://www.admis.com/commodities-overview-august-2026-edition/); [ADMIS weekly update](https://www.admis.com.sg/coffee-supply-tightens/)). Yet Ivorian reporting around the September campaign opening described 2025/26 production as nearly 2.2 million tonnes, and the regulator said 650,000 tonnes had been processed locally, equal to about 30% of production ([AIP](https://www.aip.ci/cote-divoire-aip-jncc-2026-les-prix-bord-champ-de-la-campagne-cafe-cacao-2026-2027-seront-devoiles-le-1er-septembre/); [AIP on processing](https://aip.ci/electionpresidentielle2025/article.php?id=411852)). Those figures are rounded and are not a final audited crop total. I center the full 2025/26 crop near 2.15 million tonnes and keep a wide range because arrivals, harvested production, unsold stocks and domestic use are not the same measure. The state’s 100,000-tonne residual-stock purchase program shows why the gap can persist ([AIP](https://aip.ci/electionpresidentielle2025/article.php?id=401223)).

**The calendar-year conversion is the whole problem.** The best accounting identity is:

$$
\text{Calendar 2026}
\approx
\text{2025/26 campaign}
-
\text{Oct–Dec 2025}
+
\text{Sep–Dec 2026}.
$$

Reuters’ August 26 survey used an updated 1.10 million tonnes for October–December 2025 and projected about 900,000 tonnes of port arrivals for October–December 2026. The same report expected September arrivals below 15,000 tonnes per week and an eight-to-ten-week main-crop delay ([Reuters](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ivory-coast-s-delayed-cocoa-crop-could-mean-congested-ports-ahead-of-eu-rules-sources-say-ce7858d9de8dfe23)). Adding about 40,000 tonnes for September gives a central calculation of \(2.15-1.10+0.94=1.99\) million tonnes. A more conservative calculation that leans on the near-2.0-million late-August arrival total lands near 1.82–1.88 million. The government’s 2.05-million annual projection sits on the high side of this range.

The late-2026 crop evidence is bearish, but it mainly changes timing. A July survey of four pod counters and five major exporters put the September 2026–February 2027 main crop at 1.35–1.45 million tonnes, down from about 1.6 million, after more than 20% of flowers and young pods reportedly died between May and June amid heavy rain, cool conditions and black-pod disease ([Reuters](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40429596/ivory-coast-202627-cocoa-crop-to-drop-amid-excess-rains-disease)). A satellite cross-check over a 10,979-square-kilometre box around Soubré found 1,175 millimetres of precipitation in January–August 2026, 39% above the same 2025 months; a related 9,895-square-kilometre extraction found actual evapotranspiration 8% lower than in January–August 2025. Both use FAO WaPOR version 3 monthly products with full pixel coverage, and the combination fits the field story of abundant rain, cloud, waterlogging and then drier July–August conditions rather than a simple drought ([FAO WaPOR](https://data.apps.fao.org/wapor/)).

Two marketing signals widen the downside tail without changing pod biology much before year-end. Côte d’Ivoire cut the guaranteed farmgate price from 2,800 to 1,200 CFA francs per kilogram for the 2026/27 main crop, and the new electronic traceability system was slowing rural purchases and deliveries in early September ([Government of Côte d’Ivoire](https://gouv.ci/actualite/campagne-principale-2026-2027-le-prix-bord-champ-du-cacao-est-fixe-a-1200-fcfa-le-kg-le-prix-du-cafe-setablit-a-1300-fcfa-le-kg-8771); [Reuters](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ivory-coast-cocoa-sellers-struggle-to-use-new-traceability-system-ce785bd9dd8aff20)). These factors can move beans across the December 31 reporting boundary or outside formal channels.

I use four continuous scenarios. The main calendar case has 72% weight, a 2.00-million-tonne mean and 110,000-tonne standard deviation. A conservative arrivals/accounting case has 18% weight, a 1.82-million mean and 110,000-tonne standard deviation. A higher official-estimate or crop-year-proxy case has 7% weight, a 2.17-million mean and 80,000-tonne standard deviation. An adverse weather, disease or revision case has 3% weight, a 1.58-million mean and 160,000-tonne standard deviation. The mixture produces a mean of 1.9669 million tonnes, a median of 1.9781 million, a standard deviation of 155,426 tonnes, a 44% chance of exceeding 2.0 million, and a 13% chance of falling below 1.8 million.

## What's non-obvious

The obvious read is to copy the latest “nearly 2.2 million tonnes” figure. That is a 2025/26 campaign estimate, not the answer. Calendar 2026 replaces the very large October–December 2025 slice with a smaller and delayed September–December 2026 slice. This subtraction removes roughly 150,000–200,000 tonnes from the crop-year headline.

The biggest remaining uncertainty is **measurement convention**, not El Niño. NOAA confirmed on September 10 that El Niño was strengthening, with August Niño-3.4 at +1.8°C and a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event in Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026/27, but NOAA also says local effects are not guaranteed ([NOAA Climate Prediction Center](https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)). Most of the observed flower loss had already occurred in May–June, while traceability delays, stocks and the distinction between production and port arrivals can still change which calendar year receives the beans.

## Uncertainties

- There is no final, audited 2025/26 national crop total. The latest credible evidence spans the regulator’s May range of 2.0–2.1 million tonnes, late-August arrivals near 2.0 million, and rounded September descriptions near 2.2 million ([Reuters](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ivory-coast-expects-cocoa-output-to-rise-10-5-in-2025-26-season-regulator-says-ce7f5aded18af022); [ADMIS](https://www.admis.com.sg/coffee-supply-tightens/); [AIP](https://www.aip.ci/cote-divoire-aip-jncc-2026-les-prix-bord-champ-de-la-campagne-cafe-cacao-2026-2027-seront-devoiles-le-1er-septembre/)).
- ANStat had published first-quarter 2026 cocoa growth by the cutoff, but not a comparable first-half or nine-month cocoa total. A June or September national production table would narrow the forecast more than another broad crop-year opinion ([ANStat publication calendar and March bulletin](https://anstat.ci/publication-details/a4ca4ecc05a1b3425449e208dd6460022de68699fdff79573a1b9774601a904e819bd536231fa23d6240a7e75a752e929fdc1a74c6db02a7e040027e9932b58b98EhI_QCc-qTQLkDvVgMCc1MbVrpnJzs6VXZLLYAWcI)).
- The 900,000-tonne fourth-quarter figure is a port-arrival forecast, not a farm-production census. Stocks, domestic grinding, informal cross-border sales, transport and the traceability rollout can shift reported timing ([Reuters](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ivory-coast-s-delayed-cocoa-crop-could-mean-congested-ports-ahead-of-eu-rules-sources-say-ce7858d9de8dfe23)).
- September–December rainfall, sunshine and black-pod losses remain unobserved. The crop is already delayed, so a bad weather sequence can push beans into early 2027 even when they are not permanently lost.
- Resolution risk is small but real. FAOSTAT should publish a calendar-year-compatible 2026 observation before the June 30, 2029 deadline, but the rules allow a 2025/26 crop-year proxy if no reliable annual conversion appears ([FAOSTAT update schedule](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production)).

## Sources

- Domain Expert Search (mcp)
  > Found 14 domain experts for 'Côte d’Ivoire cocoa production agricultural commodity forecasting, crop yields, weather, disease, and official statistics':
- Owid (mcp)
  > Entity,Code,Year,Cocoa beans - Production (tonnes)
- [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production) (tool)
- [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production.metadata.json) (tool)
- [api.ourworldindata.org](https://api.ourworldindata.org/v1/indicators/1198170.metadata.json) (tool)
- Usda fas (mcp)
  > PSD Commodities (0/0 results) matching 'cocoa'
- fao Wapor (mcp)
  > FAO WaPOR time series -- Precipitation (Global - Montly - Approximately 5km)
- Domain Expert Research Task (mcp)
  > Job domain_expert_research_task_f94747decf done after 253303ms.
- [zonebourse.com](https://www.zonebourse.com/actualite-bourse/cote-d-ivoire-le-regulateur-anticipe-une-hausse-de-10-5-de-la-production-de-cacao-pour-la-saison-ce7f5aded18af022) (tool)
- [au.marketscreener.com](https://au.marketscreener.com/news/ivory-coast-s-delayed-cocoa-crop-could-mean-congested-ports-ahead-of-eu-rules-sources-say-ce7858d9de8dfe23) (tool)
- [apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Cote+d%27Ivoire+-+Cocoa+Sector+Overview+-+2025_Accra_Cote+d%27Ivoire_IV2025-0001.pdf) (tool)
- [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production?country=TTO&tab=chart) (tool)
- [Statistiques globales sur le secteur cacao et café](https://data.gouv.ci/datasets/statistiques-globales-sur-le-secteur-cacao-et-cafe) (openai)
- [gouv.ci](https://www.gouv.ci/index.php/actualite/filiere-cafe-cacao-a-fin-31-decembre-2022-la-production-de-cacao-setablit-a-24-millions-de-tonnes-quand-celle-du-cafe-se-chiffre-a-95-000-tonnes-2428) (tool)
- [divercitytimes.com](https://divercitytimes.com/agriculture/crops-and-livestock/cocoa-beans) (tool)
- [icco.org](https://www.icco.org/statistics/statistics_2025) (tool)
- [scribd.com](https://www.scribd.com/document/832728420/Qbcs-L-4-PDF-English) (tool)
- [icco.org](https://www.icco.org/production_qbcs-li-no-2) (tool)
- [icco.org](https://www.icco.org/wp-content/uploads/ICCO-Annual-Report-2024-2025-EN.pdf) (tool)
- [cropgpt.ai](https://cropgpt.ai/ivory-coast-cocoa-monthly-report-june-2026) (tool)
- [admis.com](https://www.admis.com/commodities-overview-august-2026-edition) (tool)
- [admis.com.sg](https://www.admis.com.sg/coffee-supply-tightens) (tool)
- [cocoaintel.com](https://www.cocoaintel.com/ivory-coast-opens-2026-27-cocoa-main-crop-with-farmgate-price-expected-at-1-200-cfa-kg-31-august-2026) (tool)
- [conseilcafecacao.ci](https://conseilcafecacao.ci/index.php?Itemid=18&id=1571%3Acommunique-de-presse-stock-restant-de-cacao-campagne-2025-2026&option=com_k2&print=1&tmpl=component&view=item) (tool)
- [africabusinessinsight.com](https://africabusinessinsight.com/ivory-coast-cocoa-surplus-far-larger) (tool)
- [ste-scpb.com](https://www.ste-scpb.com/en/news/cocoa-watch/veille-cacao-27-juillet-2026) (tool)
- [Ivory Coast 2026/27 cocoa crop to drop amid excess rains, disease - Markets - Business Recorder](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40429596/ivory-coast-202627-cocoa-crop-to-drop-amid-excess-rains-disease) (openai)
- [marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/more-sun-needed-to-strengthen-ivory-coast-cocoa-crop-farmers-say-ce7f5edfd08ef324) (tool)
- [statistics.icco.org](https://statistics.icco.org/) (tool)
- [bilan.gouv.ci](https://www.bilan.gouv.ci/actualite/19496) (tool)
- [errors.pydantic.dev](https://errors.pydantic.dev/2.13/v/int_parsing) (tool)
- [conseilcafecacao.ci](https://www.conseilcafecacao.ci/index.php?Itemid=183&id=105&option=com_content&view=article) (tool)
- [bilan.gouv.ci](https://www.bilan.gouv.ci/actualite/20361) (tool)
- [marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ivory-coast-expects-cocoa-output-to-rise-10-5-in-2025-26-season-regulator-says-ce7f5aded18af022) (tool)
- [apps.fas.usda.gov](https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Cote+d%27Ivoire+Cocoa+Beans+and+Cocoa+Products+Semi-Annual+-+Mid-Crop+MY+2024-2025+Update_Accra_Cote+d%27Ivoire_IV2025-0015.pdf) (tool)
- [barchart.com](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/36289098/cocoa-prices-recover-on-smaller-cocoa-deliveries-from-the-ivory-coast) (tool)
- [tradingview.com](https://www.tradingview.com/news/barchart%3A684c9962b094b%3A0-bigger-supplies-from-the-ivory-coast-knock-cocoa-prices-lower) (tool)
- [tradingview.com](https://www.tradingview.com/news/barchart%3A0262ba29b094b%3A0-robust-ivory-coast-cocoa-supplies-weigh-on-prices) (tool)
- [thetradersspread.com](https://thetradersspread.com/commodities/cocoa-falls-12-4-percent-5927-ivory-coast-arrivals-19-percent) (tool)
- [marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/light-rains-support-ivory-coast-cocoa-mid-crop-development-farmers-say-ce7e5dd8d888ff21) (tool)
- [marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ivory-coast-farmers-hope-for-more-rain-to-boost-cocoa-harvest-ce7f59dad88cf424) (tool)
- [ca.marketscreener.com](https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/more-sun-needed-to-strengthen-ivory-coast-cocoa-crop-farmers-say-ce7f5edfd08ef324) (tool)
- [au.marketscreener.com](https://au.marketscreener.com/news/more-sun-needed-in-ivory-coast-cocoa-regions-to-boost-main-crop-farmers-say-ce7f50d9d88bf221) (tool)
- [marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/healthy-rains-bode-well-for-ivory-coast-cocoa-mid-crop-farmers-say-ce7e5fd9d08df326) (tool)
- [conseilcafecacao.ci](https://conseilcafecacao.ci/index.php?id=1552%3Acampagne-intermediaire-2025-2026-le-ministre-de-l%E2%80%99agriculture-du-developpement-rural-et-des-productions-vivrieres-annonce-le-prix-minimum-garanti-bord-champ-de-1200-f-cfa%2Fkg-de-cacao&option=com_k2&view=item) (tool)
- [marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ivory-coast-s-main-cocoa-harvest-to-decline-sharply-for-third-consecutive-year-sources-say-ce7d5ededc88ff27) (tool)
- [marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/west-africa-cocoa-sector-struggles-to-meet-eu-anti-deforestation-rules-raising-supply-concerns-ce7859dfd18ef42c) (tool)
- [icco.org](https://www.icco.org/wp-content/uploads/Production_QBCS-LI-No.-1.pdf) (tool)
- [icco.org](https://www.icco.org/wp-content/uploads/Production_QBCS-LI-No.-2.pdf) (tool)
- [fao.org](https://www.fao.org/statistics/highlights-archive/highlights-detail/agricultural-production-statistics-2010-2024/en) (tool)

## Question Details

This question asks for the total annual production of cocoa beans in Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) for the 2026 calendar year, measured in metric tonnes. Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest cocoa producer, typically accounting for roughly 40–45% of global output, with annual production commonly in the range of about 2.0–2.3 million tonnes in recent years. (cropgpt.ai) Production has fluctuated significantly due to weather, disease, and market conditions: output fell to roughly 1.7–1.8 million tonnes in 2023/24, with forecasts for 2024/25 ranging around 1.9–2.2 million tonnes depending on conditions. (africa24tv.com) The question resolves based on the officially reported total cocoa bean production for Côte d’Ivoire during the 2026 calendar year (January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026), regardless of how the cocoa marketing season (which typically spans two calendar years) is defined.

### Resolution Criteria

The question will resolve to the numeric value (in metric tonnes) of total cocoa bean production in Côte d’Ivoire for the 2026 calendar year. Primary sources for resolution will be: - International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) annual statistics or reports - FAOSTAT (UN Food and Agriculture Organization) - World Bank or USDA Foreign Agricultural Service datasets If multiple sources provide figures, the ICCO figure will take precedence. If ICCO does not provide a calendar-year figure, then FAOSTAT will be used. If only crop-year (e.g., 2025/26 and 2026/27) data are available, the value will be derived by averaging the overlapping portions or using the closest reported estimate explicitly attributed to calendar year 2026 by a major source.

### Fine Print

- "Cocoa beans" refers to raw cocoa bean production, not processed cocoa products. - The geographic scope is the country of Côte d’Ivoire as internationally recognized. - If production is reported only in crop years and no reliable conversion to calendar year is available, the question may be resolved using the 2025/26 crop year as a proxy, provided this is clearly indicated by the resolving source. - If no authoritative data is available by June 30, 2029, the question will be annulled. - Revisions to production figures after initial publication are allowed up until the resolution date; the latest available revised figure from the preferred source takes precedence.