# Which airlines will take control of the takeoff and landing slots at LaGuardia that were held by Spirit Airlines prior to their May 2026 bankruptcy?

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## Forecast

Top outcome: Frontier Airlines at 61.2%. Other leading outcomes: JetBlue Airways: 20.2%; American Airlines: 18.6%; Southwest Airlines: 17.7%; Other airline(s): 15.4%.

Generated: June 30, 2026 at 10:47 PM UTC
Forecast model: gpt-5.5
Research model: gpt-5.5

## Analysis

## TL;DR
Frontier is the answer to act on: 61%, because it fits the FAA low-fare signal, the Port Authority terminal issue, and the prior 2023 deal for these exact Spirit LaGuardia assets. JetBlue, American, and Southwest sit in the 18% to 20% range because a split award or a less strict approval process could give any of them at least one former Spirit slot pair. Delta, United, and Alaska are long shots because they do not solve the public-interest problem that Spirit’s exit created.

## Context
Spirit began an immediate wind-down on May 2, 2026, canceled all flights, and pushed non-card refunds and remaining claims into the bankruptcy process ([Spirit wind-down release](https://www.spiritrestructuring.com/resources/Spirit-Airlines-Begins-Orderly-Wind-Down-of-Operations.pdf)). The sale process is live but not resolved: the May 27 bidding-procedures filing set the LaGuardia final bid deadline at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on June 30, 2026, and an auction for July 9, 2026 if multiple qualified bids exist ([Spirit bidding procedures](https://documents.elevenflo.com/uuid_database_8_14_23/09ccbccb-ca58-4b5e-8623-336463c4daae.pdf)).

The public FAA data uses operating authorizations, not round-trip pairs. The FAA Summer 2025 holder report lists Spirit with 22 LaGuardia operating authorizations, which is roughly 11 daily round trips if arrivals and departures can be paired cleanly ([FAA Summer 2025 LGA holder totals](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_HOLDER_TOTALS.pdf)). I treat the question as asking who ultimately controls at least one usable former Spirit arrival-departure pair.

## Evidence
The historical base rate is small, but it points in one direction: LaGuardia slots can move through bankruptcy or private transactions, yet regulators use scarce LGA access to protect competition. In 2008, Southwest agreed to pay $7.5 million for ATA’s 14 LaGuardia slots, and the FAA had clarified that if an air carrier acquired ATA in bankruptcy it would allocate those 14 slots to that carrier ([FAA ATA clarification](https://regulations.justia.com/regulations/fedreg/2008/10/31/E8-26039.html), [Travel Weekly ATA/Southwest report](https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News/Airline-News/Southwest-to-launch-LaGuardia-service-after-purchasing-ATA-slots)). In the 2011 Delta-US Airways swap, Delta got 132 LGA slot pairs only after divestitures, and the divested LGA slots went to JetBlue and WestJet under eligibility limits for small incumbents and new entrants ([Travel Weekly 2011 slot auction report](https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News/Airline-News/JetBlue-and-WestJet-win-airport-slots-at-LaGuardia-and-Reagan-National)). In the 2013 American-US Airways settlement, DOJ required 34 LGA slots and related facilities to be transferred to low-cost carriers or other limited-share buyers ([DOJ American-US Airways settlement](https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-requires-us-airways-and-american-airlines-divest-facilities-seven-key)).

The current regulatory signal is stronger than usual. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford was reported in late May 2026 as saying Spirit’s LGA slots should go to another low-cost carrier, with retirement as an alternative if that does not happen ([AirlineGeeks FAA report](https://airlinegeeks.com/2026/05/28/faa-chief-spirits-slots-at-laguardia-should-go-to-another-low-cost-carrier/)). The FAA’s June 23, 2026 LGA order extended slot controls through October 28, 2028, kept the 71 scheduled-operations-per-hour cap, required 80% use, allowed trades or leases only with FAA written approval, and said surrendered or withdrawn operating authorizations are retired until an affected hour falls to 71 ([FAA LGA order](https://regulations.justia.com/regulations/fedreg/2026/06/23/2026-12592.html)). This makes approvability part of the bid value.

The existing slot table explains the ranking. These are FAA operating authorizations for Summer 2025; the holder report was generated December 5, 2025, and the operator report was generated December 9, 2025 ([FAA holder totals](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_HOLDER_TOTALS.pdf), [FAA operator totals](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_OPERATOR_TOTALS.pdf)).

| Airline | LGA slots held | LGA slots operated | Forecast read |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Delta | 511 | 580 | Too dominant for a public-interest award. |
| American | 327 | 327 | Can pay and wants LGA, but faces concentration optics. |
| United | 94 | 67 | Existing presence, but not low-fare and Newark remains its New York base. |
| Southwest | 57 | 70 | Low-fare enough and financially able; plausible split or backup buyer. |
| JetBlue | 31 | 31 | Strong New York fit, weaker antitrust optics after the blocked Spirit deal. |
| Spirit | 22 | 22 | The package at issue. |
| Alaska | 12 | 0 | Weak strategic fit. |
| Frontier | 4 | 10 | Best low-fare replacement case. |

Frontier’s edge is not just that it is a low-cost carrier. In June 2023, JetBlue and Frontier signed a definitive agreement under which JetBlue would transfer all Spirit holdings at LaGuardia to Frontier, principally six Marine Air Terminal gates and 22 takeoff and landing slots, subject to Port Authority and FAA/DOT approval ([JetBlue-Frontier divestiture agreement](https://news.jetblue.com/latest-news/press-release-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Frontier-Announce-Divestiture-Agreement-in-Connection-with-JetBlues-Combination-with-Spirit/default.aspx)). That is unusually direct revealed preference: Frontier had already diligenced these assets and was already the proposed regulatory remedy. Frontier also had $974 million of total liquidity as of March 31, 2026, so an $87 million slot package is meaningful but not out of reach ([Frontier Q1 2026 results](https://ir.flyfrontier.com/news-events/news/news-details/2026/Frontier-Airlines-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx), [TPG LGA slot report](https://thepointsguy.com/news/spirit-laguardia-slots/)).

The strongest counterweight is the bankruptcy estate’s need for value. The sale procedures call for the highest or otherwise best offer, and aviation reporting names American, Frontier, JetBlue, and Southwest as leading candidates, with American’s CEO saying the airline has a history of being aggressive when assets become available ([Spirit bidding procedures](https://documents.elevenflo.com/uuid_database_8_14_23/09ccbccb-ca58-4b5e-8623-336463c4daae.pdf), [TPG LGA slot report](https://thepointsguy.com/news/spirit-laguardia-slots/)). That is why I keep American near 19% rather than treating it as a token long shot. JetBlue and Southwest are also live because both can use more New York access, but JetBlue carries the baggage of the blocked Spirit acquisition, while Southwest is less central to the public discussion than Frontier or American ([DOJ JetBlue-Spirit statement](https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-statements-district-court-decision-block-jetblues-acquisition-spirit), [TPG Port Authority report](https://thepointsguy.com/news/spirit-airlines-port-authority-laguardia-flight-sale/)).

The Port Authority issue pushes the forecast toward one carrier taking a coherent package. The Port Authority said on June 3, 2026 that slots do not have intrinsic value without airport-facility permission, and on June 9, 2026 that a buyer must be willing to assume the Marine Air Terminal lease and cure defaults or else the flights would be pushed into Terminals B and C ([Port Authority objection](https://document.epiq11.com/document/getdocumentbycode?docId=4581949&projectCode=SPJ&source=DM), [Port Authority response](https://document.epiq11.com/document/getdocumentbycode?docId=4583099&projectCode=SPJ&source=DM)). I model 67% on one main buyer, 22% on a split or conditioned allocation, 7% on a failed sale followed by FAA reallocation, and 4% on retirement, delay, or no clear allocation. Within those paths, Frontier dominates the single-buyer case; split and reallocation paths lift JetBlue, American, Southwest, and Other airline(s).

## What's non-obvious
The obvious read is highest bidder wins. That misses the veto points. These slots require FAA confirmation, and the facilities needed to use them require Port Authority cooperation; a bid that maximizes cash but cannot close is not the best bid. That is why Frontier beats American despite American’s balance-sheet advantage.

The other non-obvious point is that JetBlue is not the clean New York answer. JetBlue has the network case, but in 2023 it offered to give these exact assets to Frontier to preserve ultra-low-cost service at LaGuardia, and in 2024 DOJ won a court order blocking JetBlue’s acquisition of Spirit on competition grounds ([JetBlue-Frontier divestiture agreement](https://news.jetblue.com/latest-news/press-release-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Frontier-Announce-Divestiture-Agreement-in-Connection-with-JetBlues-Combination-with-Spirit/default.aspx), [DOJ JetBlue-Spirit statement](https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-statements-district-court-decision-block-jetblues-acquisition-spirit)). JetBlue can still get a slice, but it is a worse fit for a full-package remedy than Frontier.

## Limitations
The largest gap is the private bid list. The final bid deadline passed less than three hours before the forecast time, and I found no official qualified-bidder list, winning bid, or FAA/DOT allocation order in public sources as of June 30, 2026 at 22:41 UTC ([Spirit bidding procedures](https://documents.elevenflo.com/uuid_database_8_14_23/09ccbccb-ca58-4b5e-8623-336463c4daae.pdf)).

There is also a unit ambiguity. FAA data reports 22 operating authorizations, while some press and deal language uses slots or slot pairs loosely. If the final resolution treats Spirit as having 22 true pairs rather than 22 individual authorizations, the chance of a split allocation rises, mainly helping JetBlue, American, Southwest, and Other airline(s). The last uncertainty is regulatory discretion: the FAA, DOT, bankruptcy court, and Port Authority do not have identical incentives, and a high-cash bid from a legacy carrier could still win if regulators decide the concentration effect is small enough.

## Sources

- Domain Expert Search (mcp)
  > Found 14 subagent groups for 'U.S. aviation regulation FAA slot controls LaGuardia airline bankruptcy slot transfer antitrust low-cost carrier allocation Spirit Airlines':
- Aviationstack (mcp)
  > Routes operated by NK from LGA
- bts Transtats (mcp)
  > Yearly Passengers at LGA — 2015..2025
- tsa Checkpoints (mcp)
  > TSA Checkpoint Throughput — latest 14 row(s)
- Domain Expert Research Task (mcp)
  > Job domain_expert_research_task_851f0095c4 done after 305932ms.
- [news.bloomberglaw.com](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/spirits-laguardia-slot-sale-kicks-off-high-stakes-airport-fight) (tool)
- [news.bloomberglaw.com](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/spirit-airlines-wins-court-approval-to-market-laguardia-slots) (tool)
- [news.bloomberglaw.com](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/spirit-aims-to-auction-laguardia-slots-pay-executive-bonuses) (tool)
- [thepointsguy.com](https://thepointsguy.com/news/spirit-laguardia-slots) (tool)
- [faa.gov](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/slot_administration_schedule_facilitation/level-3-airports) (tool)
- [ecfr.gov](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-14/chapter-I/subchapter-F/part-93/subpart-S) (tool)
- [govinfo.gov](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2008-10-10/pdf/E8-24048.pdf) (tool)
- [public-inspection.federalregister.gov](https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2026-12592.pdf) (tool)
- [law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/14/93.226) (tool)
- [news.bloomberglaw.com](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/ny-port-authority-objects-to-spirit-push-to-sell-laguardia-slots) (tool)
- [thepointsguy.com](https://thepointsguy.com/news/spirit-airlines-port-authority-laguardia-flight-sale) (tool)
- [en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spirit_Airlines) (tool)
- [document.epiq11.com](https://document.epiq11.com/document/getdocumentbycode?docId=4582810&projectCode=SPJ) (tool)
- [ch-aviation.com](https://www.ch-aviation.com/news/167805-spirit-slots-at-laguardia-should-go-to-an-lcc-says-faa-head) (tool)
- [news.bloomberglaw.com](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/new-york-brief/spirits-laguardia-slots-should-go-to-low-cost-carrier-faa-says) (tool)
- [viewfromthewing.com](https://viewfromthewing.com/faa-wants-to-centrally-plan-airline-competition-starting-with-spirits-87-million-laguardia-slots) (tool)
- [viewfromthewing.com](https://viewfromthewing.com/bankrupt-spirit-wants-87-million-for-laguardia-flight-slots-but-the-airport-says-theyre-not-spirits-to-sell) (tool)
- [marketplace.org](https://www.marketplace.org/story/2026/06/25/spirit-to-auction-80-million-in-takeoff-and-landing-slots-at-lga) (tool)
- Claude Code (e2b)
  > Job coding_whiz_job_bb4027e791 done after 1067963ms.
- SEC EDGAR (mcp)
  > SEC Filings for Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC)
- [errors.pydantic.dev](https://errors.pydantic.dev/2.13/v/missing_argument) (tool)
- [errors.pydantic.dev](https://errors.pydantic.dev/2.13/v/unexpected_keyword_argument) (tool)
- [simpleflying.com](https://simpleflying.com/spirit-airlines-22-coveted-laguardia-slots-go-to-highest-bidder-valued-87-million) (tool)
- [law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/14/93.221) (tool)
- [faraim.org](https://www.faraim.org/faa/far/cfr/title-14/part-93/section-93.224.pdf) (tool)
- [pacermonitor.com](https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/59856292/Spirit_Aviation_Holdings,_Inc) (tool)
- [fleet-wire.com](https://fleet-wire.com/frontier-american-vie-for-spirits-laguardia-slots) (tool)
- [flightglobal.com](https://www.flightglobal.com/spirit-airlines/2026/06/bankrupt-spirit-moves-to-auction-airbus-jets-and-other-assets-bidders-emerge) (tool)

## Question Details

On May 2, 2026, Spirit Airlines ceased operations and began liquidating its assets following bankruptcy, canceling all flights and vacating facilities including its operations at LaGuardia Airport (LGA) in New York. (opb.org) Spirit had been the sole tenant of the Marine Air Terminal at LaGuardia and held a portfolio of FAA-controlled takeoff and landing slots at this slot-constrained airport. (en.wikipedia.org) In a liquidation scenario, such slots are valuable assets that may be reassigned by regulators (e.g., the FAA and U.S. Department of Transportation) or transferred/sold through bankruptcy proceedings to other airlines. This question asks which airlines will ultimately take control (through purchase, transfer, or regulatory reallocation) of the LaGuardia slot pairs that were held by Spirit Airlines immediately prior to its shutdown on May 2, 2026. The resolution will consider developments from May 2, 2026 onward until a clear, authoritative allocation of the majority of these slots has occurred.

### Resolution Criteria

This question will resolve based on publicly reported final allocation(s) of Spirit Airlines' former LaGuardia (LGA) slot pairs. Primary sources for resolution will include: - Official announcements or orders from the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) or Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) - Bankruptcy court filings or rulings related to Spirit Airlines asset disposition - Confirmed reporting from major reputable news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP News, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal) Each listed airline option will be considered "true" if it is confirmed to have obtained control of at least one slot pair formerly held by Spirit at LGA, whether via purchase, lease, or regulatory reassignment. If multiple airlines acquire slots, multiple options may resolve as true. If no clear or final allocation is reported by May 2, 2028, the question will be annulled.

### Fine Print

- "Control" includes ownership, long-term lease, or formal allocation of slot usage rights sufficient to operate scheduled service at LGA. - Temporary or emergency use of slots (e.g., short-term accommodation flights immediately after shutdown) does not count unless later formalized. - If a merger or acquisition results in slots being transferred indirectly (e.g., via acquisition of Spirit assets), the acquiring airline counts. - If slots are returned to a general FAA pool and later redistributed, the eventual recipient airlines count. - If an airline ceases to exist or merges before resolution, its successor entity is credited. - Options are not mutually exclusive: multiple airlines may receive portions of the slot portfolio.