# Who will win Colombia's 2026 presidential election (first round 31 May, runoff 21 June)?

Canonical URL: https://preseen.com/reports/9d5f3f68-69ba-47b0-b718-62f98e89da88/who-will-win-colombia-s-2026-presidential-election-first-round-31-may-runoff-21
Markdown URL: https://preseen.com/reports/9d5f3f68-69ba-47b0-b718-62f98e89da88/markdown

## Forecast

Top outcome: Abelardo de la Espriella at 44.8%. Other leading outcomes: Iván Cepeda: 43.6%; Paloma Valencia: 10.2%; Sergio Fajardo: 0.7%; Other: 0.7%.

Generated: May 31, 2026 at 6:25 PM UTC
Resolution check date: 2026-06-21
Forecast model: gpt-5.5
Research model: gpt-5.5

## Analysis

## TL;DR
Abelardo de la Espriella is the slight favorite because he is now the likeliest runoff opponent for Iván Cepeda and the median runoff evidence points just against Petro continuity.

## Context
Colombia is voting today, 31 May 2026, in the first round of the presidential election; the official Registraduría page lists voting hours as 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Bogotá time, so at 18:18 UTC the polls were still open and no official result was available ([Registraduría election page](https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/presidente-y-vicepresidente/)). The official electoral census is 41,421,973 eligible voters, with 40,007,312 in Colombia and 1,414,661 abroad, across 122,016 voting tables ([Registraduría, 28 May 2026](https://www.registraduria.gov.co/Registraduria-Nacional-entrega-detalles-del-censo-electoral-en-Colombia-y-el.html)).

The constitutional rule makes the first-round question secondary unless someone clears a majority: Article 190 elects the president by “half plus one” of votes, and otherwise sends the top two candidates to a new vote three weeks later ([Colombia Constitution, Article 190](https://colombia.justia.com/nacionales/constitucion-politica-de-colombia/titulo-vii/capitulo-1/)). I treat the normal path as a 21 June runoff, most likely Cepeda versus De la Espriella.

## Evidence
The historical backbone says two things. First, outright first-round wins are rare. Second, the first-round leader usually wins, but not always. Since the 1991 Constitution created the modern runoff system, only Álvaro Uribe won in the first round, in 2002 and 2006; in runoff years, the first-round leader won 4 of 6 times. That is a real prior for Cepeda, but not enough to overcome close second-round polling.

| Election | First-round leader | Leader share | Deciding round | President-elect |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---|
| 1994 | Ernesto Samper | 45.3% | Runoff | Samper ([1994 result](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Colombian_presidential_election)) |
| 1998 | Horacio Serpa | 34.6% | Runoff | Andrés Pastrana ([1998 result](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Colombian_presidential_election)) |
| 2002 | Álvaro Uribe | 53.0% | First round | Uribe ([2002 result](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Colombian_presidential_election)) |
| 2006 | Álvaro Uribe | 62.4% | First round | Uribe ([2006 result](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Colombian_presidential_election)) |
| 2010 | Juan Manuel Santos | 46.7% | Runoff | Santos ([2010 result](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Colombian_presidential_election)) |
| 2014 | Óscar Iván Zuluaga | 29.3% | Runoff | Santos ([International IDEA, 26 Jun 2014](https://www.idea.int/news/presidential-elections-colombia-second-round)) |
| 2018 | Iván Duque | 39.1% | Runoff | Duque ([2018 result](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Colombian_presidential_election)) |
| 2022 | Gustavo Petro | 40.3% | Runoff | Petro ([2022 result](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Colombian_presidential_election)) |

The late first-round polling points to Cepeda first and De la Espriella second. La Silla Vacía’s final weighted poll tracker, updated 25 May 2026 and using eight firms, put Cepeda at 38%, De la Espriella at 30%, and Valencia at 19%; it also said Cepeda was about 12 points below a first-round win and that the most likely runoff was Cepeda-De la Espriella ([La Silla Vacía, 25 May 2026](https://www.lasillavacia.com/en-vivo/ponderador-de-encuestas-cepeda-y-abelardo-con-un-pie-en-segunda-vuelta/)). The final individual polls disagree on the margin but not on the broad ordering: AtlasIntel/Semana, fielded 18–21 May with 4,531 respondents, had Cepeda 38.7%, De la Espriella 37.3%, Valencia 14.3%, and Fajardo 3.8% ([El Colombiano, 22 May 2026](https://www.elcolombiano.com/amp/especiales/elecciones-2026/encuesta-atlas-intel-cepeda-empata-abelardo-elecciones-DL36865987)); Invamer, fielded 13–20 May, had Cepeda 44.6%, De la Espriella 31.6%, Valencia 14.0%, and Fajardo 2.4% ([Blu Radio, 21 May 2026](https://www.bluradio.com/nacion/elecciones/encuesta-invamer-cepeda-obtiene-44-6-de-la-espriella-31-6-y-paloma-valencia-14-so35)); Guarumo/EcoAnalítica, fielded 11–19 May with 3,787 in-person interviews in 85 municipalities, had Cepeda 37.1%, De la Espriella 27.5%, Valencia 21.7%, and Fajardo 3.2% ([El Colombiano, 21 May 2026](https://www.elcolombiano.com/especiales/elecciones-2026/encuesta-guarumo-mayo-2026-cepeda-lidera-GM36810017)); and CNC/Cambio, fielded 16–22 May with 2,202 in-person interviews, had Cepeda 33.4%, De la Espriella 30.9%, Valencia 12.6%, and Fajardo 2.1% ([Cable Noticias, 23 May 2026](https://www.cablenoticias.com/noticias/encuesta-cnc)).

The runoff evidence is the crux. Atlas had De la Espriella beating Cepeda 50.0% to 41.3%, and Valencia beating Cepeda 44.6% to 41.5% ([El Colombiano, 22 May 2026](https://www.elcolombiano.com/amp/especiales/elecciones-2026/encuesta-atlas-intel-cepeda-empata-abelardo-elecciones-DL36865987)). CNC had De la Espriella over Cepeda 43.6% to 40.9%, while Cepeda narrowly led Valencia 40.8% to 39.1% ([Cable Noticias, 23 May 2026](https://www.cablenoticias.com/noticias/encuesta-cnc)). Guarumo had De la Espriella over Cepeda 43.6% to 40.0%, and Valencia over Cepeda 44.8% to 39.9% ([El Colombiano, 21 May 2026](https://www.elcolombiano.com/especiales/elecciones-2026/encuesta-guarumo-mayo-2026-cepeda-lidera-GM36810017)). Invamer is the main contrary signal: it had Cepeda beating De la Espriella 52.4% to 45.3%, and Valencia 52.8% to 44.3% ([Blu Radio, 21 May 2026](https://www.bluradio.com/nacion/elecciones/encuesta-invamer-cepeda-obtiene-44-6-de-la-espriella-31-6-y-paloma-valencia-14-so35)). I read that as a close runoff with a small De la Espriella lean, not as a safe right-wing win.

My scenario tree gives Cepeda a 3.0% chance of winning outright in the first round, De la Espriella a 0.25% outright tail, Valencia a 0.05% tail, and virtually no outright chance for others. Conditional on a runoff, I use 77.5% for Cepeda-De la Espriella, 17% for Cepeda-Valencia, 0.8% for Cepeda-Fajardo, 0.8% for Cepeda-Other, 2.3% for De la Espriella-Valencia, and 1.6% for other low-probability lineups. Conditional runoff win rates are 57% for De la Espriella over Cepeda, 54% for Valencia over Cepeda, 55% for Cepeda over Fajardo or another low-polling candidate, and 53% for De la Espriella over Valencia. The resulting probabilities are De la Espriella 44.8%, Cepeda 43.6%, Valencia 10%, Fajardo 1%, and Other 1%.

I checked the prediction-market signal only after building that tree. Public reporting said De la Espriella had traded near 69% on Polymarket on 27 May, but the reported explanation was the same late Atlas/anti-Petro consolidation already reflected in the polling set, not a distinct piece of evidence ([Infobae, 27 May 2026](https://www.infobae.com/colombia/2026/05/27/abelardo-de-la-espriella-sigue-subiendo-en-polymarket-tiene-69-de-probabilidad-de-ser-el-proximo-presidente-de-colombia/?outputType=amp-type)). I therefore treat the market as a warning that I may be underweighting late momentum, but not enough to move De la Espriella near two-thirds.

## What's non-obvious
The tempting shortcut is “Cepeda leads, so Cepeda wins.” That misses the structure. Cepeda’s first-round lead is helped by a split right. The same polling that puts him first also puts him below 50%, and several runoff polls show right and anti-Petro voters consolidating against him. AP’s election-day framing is consistent with this: the race is a referendum on Petro’s policies, and De la Espriella has gained traction with a hard-security pitch ([AP, 31 May 2026](https://apnews.com/article/colombia-president-election-petro-trump-c8b2170044646266ccdfce0e8bfb1bfb)).

The other trap is overrating Valencia because she may be the cleaner anti-Cepeda runoff candidate. Her conditional path is decent. Her first-round bottleneck is the problem. The final weighted tracker put her 11 points behind De la Espriella, and three of the four late major polls put her near 13–14% rather than near second place ([La Silla Vacía, 25 May 2026](https://www.lasillavacia.com/en-vivo/ponderador-de-encuestas-cepeda-y-abelardo-con-un-pie-en-segunda-vuelta/); [Blu Radio, 21 May 2026](https://www.bluradio.com/nacion/elecciones/encuesta-invamer-cepeda-obtiene-44-6-de-la-espriella-31-6-y-paloma-valencia-14-so35); [Cable Noticias, 23 May 2026](https://www.cablenoticias.com/noticias/encuesta-cnc)). She is live only if the late public polls missed tactical uribista or center-right coordination by a large amount.

## Limitations
There was no official vote count at the forecast time. This forecast is made during voting, before the 4:00 p.m. Bogotá close, and the resolution criteria require official scrutiny rather than media projections or preliminary preconteo ([Registraduría election page](https://wapp.registraduria.gov.co/electoral/atipicas/presidente-y-vicepresidente/)).

The biggest empirical weakness is pollster dispersion. The final polls put Cepeda anywhere from 33.4% to 44.6% and De la Espriella anywhere from 27.5% to 37.3%, much wider than sampling error alone ([Cable Noticias, 23 May 2026](https://www.cablenoticias.com/noticias/encuesta-cnc); [Blu Radio, 21 May 2026](https://www.bluradio.com/nacion/elecciones/encuesta-invamer-cepeda-obtiene-44-6-de-la-espriella-31-6-y-paloma-valencia-14-so35); [El Colombiano, 21 May 2026](https://www.elcolombiano.com/especiales/elecciones-2026/encuesta-guarumo-mayo-2026-cepeda-lidera-GM36810017); [El Colombiano, 22 May 2026](https://www.elcolombiano.com/amp/especiales/elecciones-2026/encuesta-atlas-intel-cepeda-empata-abelardo-elecciones-DL36865987)). Runoff polls are even more fragile because they ask voters to imagine a race that will change after first-round endorsements, turnout narratives, and the first-round margin itself. That is why the top two probabilities are close rather than decisive.

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## Question Details

Colombians vote on 31 May 2026 to choose a successor to leftist president Gustavo Petro, who is constitutionally barred from a consecutive second term. Under Colombia's Article 190, a candidate wins outright in the first round only with more than 50% of valid votes; otherwise the top two go to a runoff (segunda vuelta) on 21 June 2026. The Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil certified 14 candidates on 20 March 2026. The race is dominated by three figures: Iván Cepeda, the Historic Pact senator who won the October 2025 left-wing primary and offers continuity with Petro's program; Abelardo de la Espriella, a hard-right lawyer running with Defensores de la Patria as an anti-Petro outsider; and Paloma Valencia, the Centro Democrático senator backed by uribismo. Sergio Fajardo (centrist former Antioquia governor) has consistently polled in the high single digits, with Claudia López, Vicky Dávila, Juan Manuel Galán, Roy Barreras, David Luna, Juan Carlos Pinzón, Mauricio Cárdenas, Daniel Quintero, Juan Daniel Oviedo, Luis Gilberto Murillo and Gustavo Bolívar all polling at 1–4%. The most recent AtlasIntel poll for Semana (6–9 Apr 2026, n=3,616, MoE ±2%) puts first-round support at Cepeda 38.7%, De la Espriella 27.8%, Valencia 23.4%, Fajardo 5.1%. The same survey has Cepeda losing both plausible runoff matchups by 7–9 points as anti-Petro voters consolidate. Polymarket pricing (≈$23M volume) is close to a three-way coin flip between Cepeda, Valencia, and De la Espriella, with all other candidates priced below 1%.

### Resolution Criteria

Resolves to the candidate (or 'Other') who is officially declared president-elect of Colombia by the Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil for the 2026–2030 term, based on the final official scrutiny published at https://www.registraduria.gov.co/ and ratified by the Consejo Nacional Electoral. - If a candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the first round on 31 May 2026, that candidate is the winner. - Otherwise, the winner is the candidate who receives the most valid votes in the runoff on 21 June 2026 (or any rescheduled runoff date set by the electoral authority before resolution). The question resolves once the Registraduría publishes the official, final result of whichever round determines the presidency. If the result is contested but ultimately confirmed by the Consejo Nacional Electoral or upheld by the Consejo de Estado / Constitutional Court, it stands. Resolution timestamp deadline: 31 July 2026 (23:59 Bogotá time). Options: - Iván Cepeda — resolves YES iff Cepeda is declared president-elect. - Abelardo de la Espriella — resolves YES iff De la Espriella is declared president-elect. - Paloma Valencia — resolves YES iff Valencia is declared president-elect. - Sergio Fajardo — resolves YES iff Fajardo is declared president-elect. - Other — resolves YES iff any other candidate is declared president-elect, including any of the other 10+ certified candidates. Primary source: Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil (registraduria.gov.co). Secondary corroboration: Consejo Nacional Electoral (cne.gov.co), Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, El Tiempo.

### Fine Print

If the election or runoff is postponed by official decree to a later date, the question still resolves on the final result of the rescheduled vote, provided that result is published by 31 July 2026; otherwise resolves 'Other' if no winner has been declared by the deadline (treat as ambiguous and use the latest available official tally if the run-off is still pending). If a candidate withdraws or dies between rounds and the runner-up of the first round advances per Colombian law (Art. 190), the runoff result still governs. Mere media projections without Registraduría confirmation do not resolve the question. Vote counts from preconteo (preliminary) do not count — only the escrutinio (official scrutiny) does.