# Will Bolivian president Rodrigo Paz Pereira remain in power through the end of 2026?

Canonical URL: https://preseen.com/reports/262eda92-36cd-4b9d-bc49-1bc98f58e793/will-bolivian-president-rodrigo-paz-pereira-remain-in-power-through-the-end-of-2
Markdown URL: https://preseen.com/reports/262eda92-36cd-4b9d-bc49-1bc98f58e793/markdown

## Forecast

P(Yes): 84.2%; P(No): 15.8%.

Generated: September 23, 2026 at 12:23 PM UTC
Resolution check date: 2027-01-02
Forecast model: gpt-5.6-sol
Research model: gpt-5.6-sol

## Analysis

## TL;DR

I assign an **84% probability** that Rodrigo Paz Pereira remains continuously president through December 31, 2026. Paz still controls the executive and retains military backing plus enough legislative support to obtain emergency powers and IMF financing ([Bolivian Presidency](https://presidencia.gob.bo/index.php/presidente-de-bolivia/); [Los Tiempos](https://www.lostiempos.com/actualidad/pais/20260807/comandante-ffaa-ratifica-que-defendera-estabilidad-del-gobierno-voluntad)).  The main danger is that the new diesel-price shock turns announced transport and labor actions into nationwide blockades, casualties, and security-force or elite defections ([Unitel](https://unitel.bo/noticias/economia/alza-del-diesel-el-paro-del-transporte-sera-por-24-horas-y-se-anuncian-movilizaciones-escalonadas-OB23669124)). 

## Context

Bolivia’s official presidency page continued to list Paz as president at the cutoff and states that he assumed office on November 8, 2025 ([official biography](https://presidencia.gob.bo/index.php/presidente-de-bolivia/)).  During Paz’s UN trip, Vice President Edmand Lara invoked Article 169 of the Constitution on September 21 and declared himself president in exercise, but the executive rejected an automatic transfer, the Senate president said Paz remained in charge, and Paz chaired a virtual cabinet meeting from New York ([La Razón](https://larazon.bo/nacional/2026/09/21/lara-invoca-la-constitucion-y-se-declara-presidente-en-ejercicio-pero-dice-que-tambien-debe-viajar/); [Senate response](https://eju.tv/2026/09/avila-a-lara-el-presidente-en-ejercicio-sigue-siendo-rodrigo-paz-no-son-temas-que-una-persona-puede-decidir/); [virtual cabinet](https://eju.tv/2026/09/presidente-dirige-desde-eeuu-reunion-virtual-del-gabinete-de-ministros/)). 

I do not treat Lara’s unilateral statement as an interruption that has already resolved the question NO. It produced no generally recognized transfer of executive control. The dispute still matters because a later court judgment or formal institutional recognition of temporary succession could count as an interruption under the strict resolution rules.

## Evidence

Bolivia’s post-1982 record supplies a high-risk historical prior. A broad coding finds five premature presidential endings before Paz: Hernán Siles Zuazo’s shortened term in 1985, Hugo Banzer’s health resignation in 2001, Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada’s resignation in 2003, Carlos Mesa’s resignation in 2005, and Evo Morales’s resignation in 2019 ([academic interruption table](https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?doi=20b3a2669d0476a87e82f2d7bf5ac782ad7934dc&repid=rep1&type=pdf); [Bolivian INE history](https://www.ine.gob.bo/index.php/bolivia/aspectos-historicos/)).  Five exits over roughly 43.1 president-years imply a mechanical 3.1% interruption probability over the remaining 99.66 days under a constant-hazard model. That is only an anchor: it mixes calm periods with crises and includes health and negotiated term-shortening.

Comparative research points to the real mechanism. Recession and protest create pressure, but presidents usually fall only when partisan support, political elites, and coercive institutions stop sustaining them. Multiclass protest alliances become much more dangerous when they gain elite allies, while a hostile or politically independent vice president can make constitutional replacement easier ([Democratization study](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13510347.2016.1251905); [Review of Economics and Political Science](https://doi.org/10.1108/REPS-04-2021-0041); [Cambridge vice-presidency study](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-latin-american-studies/article/allies-and-traitors-vicepresidents-in-latin-america/22E4C7BB8557BFD4F5F05C9CBEAA3844)). 

Paz has already survived a direct stress test. The May–June crisis lasted 53 days, demanded his resignation, disrupted national roads, and left 22 reported deaths and 88 injuries; the road network had no active social blockades by June 23 ([Defensoría figures reported by Unitel](https://unitel.bo/noticias/sociedad/el-costo-humano-de-los-bloqueos-fue-22-fallecidos-y-88-heridos-informa-la-defensoria-del-pueblo-CM21966545); [June 23 road report](https://www.reduno.com.bo/noticias/bolivia-sin-bloqueos-despues-de-53-dias-de-conflictos-202662381318)).  He did not resign, and the security chain did not fracture. On August 7, Armed Forces commander Víctor Hugo Balderrama publicly said the military and police would defend the democratically elected government ([Los Tiempos](https://www.lostiempos.com/actualidad/pais/20260807/comandante-ffaa-ratifica-que-defendera-estabilidad-del-gobierno-voluntad)). 

Recent legislative behavior also favors survival. On September 17, the Assembly approved a 90-day extension of the state of exception by 100 votes to 58, covering almost all of the dangerous post-diesel period ([official government tally](https://web.mingobierno.gob.bo/?nota_prensa=%F0%9D%97%A0%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%98%86%F0%9D%97%BC%F0%9D%97%BF%F0%9D%97%B6%F0%9D%97%AE-%F0%9D%97%AE%F0%9D%97%AF%F0%9D%98%80%F0%9D%97%BC%F0%9D%97%B9%F0%9D%98%82%F0%9D%98%81%F0%9D%97%AE); [El País](https://elpais.com/america/2026-09-17/paz-extiende-el-estado-de-excepcion-por-otros-90-dias-en-bolivia-para-evitar-nuevas-protestas.html)).  Congress then approved a three-year, US$1.9 billion IMF arrangement, although IMF Executive Board approval and prior actions remained outstanding at the cutoff ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/bolivia-international-monetary-fund-agreement-rodrigo-paz-d5ac4a2558132559e1d544807b89d528); [IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/29/pr26268-bolivia-imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-on-an-extended-fund-facility-arrangement)).  These votes show a transactional pro-stability coalition, even though Paz lacks a dependable party majority.

The immediate downside is severe. The government raised retail diesel from Bs 9.80 to Bs 17.95 per litre, an 83% increase, and replaced the fixed subsidy with an import-cost-linked mechanism ([Visión 360](https://www.vision360.bo/amp/noticias/2026/09/19/68419-diesel-a-bs-17_95-que-cambia-con-el-nuevo-mecanismo-de-precios); [AP](https://apnews.com/article/bolivia-international-monetary-fund-agreement-rodrigo-paz-d5ac4a2558132559e1d544807b89d528)).  The COB declared an emergency, transport leaders announced a national 24-hour service withdrawal for September 28 with possible escalation, and Oruro drivers had already begun a local vehicle withdrawal and march on September 23 ([Visión 360](https://www.vision360.bo/noticias/2026/09/20/68518-el-fin-de-la-subvencion-al-diesel-desata-anuncios-de-ampliados-estados-de-emergencia-y-posibles-medidas-de-presion); [national transport action](https://unitel.bo/noticias/economia/alza-del-diesel-el-paro-del-transporte-sera-por-24-horas-y-se-anuncian-movilizaciones-escalonadas-OB23669124); [Oruro action](https://unitel.bo/noticias/economia/choferes-de-oruro-repliegan-sus-vehiculos-para-marchar-este-miercoles-contra-el-alza-del-diesel-DB23669758)). 

Paz has little political buffer. An Ipsos CIESMORI online survey fielded August 19–31 among 400 internet-connected adults in La Paz, El Alto, Cochabamba, and Santa Cruz put approval at 21% and disapproval at 65%; it is directional evidence, not a nationally representative estimate ([Brújula Digital](https://brujuladigital.net/politica/2026/09/02/encuesta-tras-escandalo-cerimedo-aprobacion-de-rodrigo-paz-cae-al-21--65847)).  By August 21, only six of the original 15 ministers remained after protests, scandals, and political ruptures ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/bolivia-rodrigo-paz-fba61c2e7879a51000c7ad8230bda4a6)). 

My first-cause model assigns about 10% to a protest-driven resignation or negotiated exit, 2% to a military or police rupture, 2% to a recognized interim or permanent succession dispute, 1% to formal legal or scandal-driven removal, and roughly 1% combined to death, incapacity, and other abrupt events. That produces a 16% probability of NO and an 84% probability of continuous survival.

## What's non-obvious

Low approval and large protests are not the decisive variables. Bolivia’s past presidential collapses required a second step: security-force withdrawal or a broad elite decision that the incumbent had become more costly than succession. Paz has not reached that step. The Assembly’s emergency and IMF votes, plus the military commander’s public position, are stronger survival evidence than opinion polls are removal evidence.

The legal dispute is also subtler than most coverage suggests. A contemporaneous legal review reports that the often-cited Decree 5515 had already been abrogated, but its remote-governance rule was reproduced in Decree 5675; constitutional challenges had been admitted without a final ruling ([El Post legal review](https://elpost.com.bo/2026/09/22/gobernar-a-distancia-lara-se-declara-presidente-y-cita-un-decreto-abrogado/); [earlier Constitutional Tribunal report](https://hemeroteca.larazon.bo/nacional/2026/05/12/tcp-admite-demanda-contra-decreto-que-permite-a-paz-gobernar-a-distancia/)).  Article 169 plainly provides for vice-presidential assumption during a temporary absence, but Paz’s government disputes that an official foreign trip while governing remotely constitutes such an absence ([constitutional text](https://www.senapi.gob.bo/normativas/constitucion-politica-del-estado/constitucion-politica-del-estado-plurinacional-de-bolivia)).  The result is legal uncertainty, not a completed transfer.

## Uncertainties

The largest unknown is what happens after the September 26 cocalero meeting and September 28 transport stoppage. A short service withdrawal followed by fare, credit, or compensation talks leaves the forecast near its current level; indefinite physical blockades joined by the COB, teachers, campesino groups, cocaleros, and El Alto organizations would cut it sharply ([cocalero meeting](https://www.vision360.bo/noticias/2026/08/14/62851-cocaleros-afirman-que-no-permitiran-la-ampliacion-del-estado-de-excepcion-y-convocan-al-ampliado-del-evo-pueblo-para-el-26-de-septiembre)). 

The private views and cohesion of police and military commanders remain thinly observed. Their public and operational behavior favors Paz, but loyalty under a lethal confrontation has not been tested. The Constitutional Tribunal has not resolved the remote-governance dispute, the approval survey is small and urban, and the IMF money was not yet fully approved or disbursed. Those gaps keep the estimate well below 90% despite the short horizon.

## Sources

- Domain Expert Search (mcp)
  > Found 14 domain experts for 'Bolivia political crisis presidential survival Rodrigo Paz Edmand Lara protests military legislature September 2026':
- GDELT (mcp)
  > {"query":"in BL with event codes 14, 140, 141, 142, 143, 144, 145","parameters":{"actor1":null,"actor2":null,"event_codes":["14","140","141","142","143","144","145"],"locations":["BL"],"themes":null,"date_range":["2026-01-01","2026-09-23"],"aggregation":"monthly","return_format":"summary"},"backtesting_info":{"cutoff_date":"2026-09-23","effective_end_date":"2026-09-23","is_backtesting":false,"warning":null},"data":{"total_events":1682,"total_mentions":15051,"total_sources":1705,"avg_tone":-4.37…
- hdx Hapi (mcp)
  > ACLED Conflict Events (8 records)
- Domain Expert Research Task (mcp)
  > Job domain_expert_research_task_f17503d4cd done after 383042ms.
- [biobiochile.cl](https://www.biobiochile.cl/noticias/internacional/america-latina/2026/09/22/lider-criminal-de-los-pulpos-con-redes-en-chile-ira-a-carcel-en-base-naval-peruana-de-maxima-seguridad.shtml) (tool)
- [eju.tv](https://eju.tv/2026/09/policia-aprehende-a-un-hombre-que-ofrecia-el-litro-de-gasolina-hasta-en-bs-18-mediante-redes-sociales) (tool)
- [hoy.es](https://www.hoy.es/badajoz/calles-nombre-completo-falta-mantenimiento-deja-ruinas-20260923193621-nt.html) (tool)
- [infobae.com](https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2026/09/23/bolivia-expulso-a-un-miembro-de-alto-rango-de-la-organizacion-criminal-brasilena-pcc) (tool)
- [diariodonordeste.verdesmares.com.br](https://diariodonordeste.verdesmares.com.br/seguranca/quem-e-yago-gordao-um-dos-homens-mais-procurados-do-ceara-e-preso-na-bolivia-1.3793416) (tool)
- [prensalibre.com](https://www.prensalibre.com/internacional/jhonsson-pulpo-quien-es-el-cabecilla-de-los-pulpos-que-sera-enviado-a-una-carcel-militar-de-peru-para-cumplir-cadena-perpetua) (tool)
- [eldeber.com.bo](https://eldeber.com.bo/mundo/lider-banda-criminal-peruana-pulpos-capturado-bolivia-ira-carcel-base-naval_1790112917) (tool)
- [correiodoestado.com.br](https://correiodoestado.com.br/cidades/paraguai-e-bolivia-vizinhos-de-ms-aderem-a-pacto-dos-eua-contra-pcc/473152) (tool)
- [unoentrerios.com.ar](https://www.unoentrerios.com.ar/policiales/postergaron-octubre-el-juicio-contra-exdirigente-sindical-concordia-n10282460.html) (tool)
- [elheraldo.co](https://www.elheraldo.co/colombia/2026/09/22/tecnologia-seguridad-integracion-regional-y-comercio-la-agenda-del-gobierno-en-nueva-york) (tool)
- [eju.tv](https://eju.tv/2026/09/caso-narcomaderas-quiroga-compara-denuncia-de-chile-con-la-perdida-de-la-salida-al-pacifico) (tool)
- [elsol.com.ar](https://www.elsol.com.ar/policiales/iba-a-contramano-mato-a-un-padre-y-su-hija-y-ahora-busca-dar-vuelta-la-condena) (tool)
- [clarin.com](https://www.clarin.com/politica/trastienda-salida-titular-agencia-discapacidad-medio-polemica-recortes-area_0_xLZGkK8JeR.html) (tool)
- [radiofides.com](http://radiofides.com/seguridad/dictan-180-dias-de-detencion-preventiva-en-chonchocoro-para-brasilenos-investigados-por-asesinatos-en-san-ignacio-de-velasco) (tool)
- [hoybolivia.com](https://hoybolivia.com/Noticia.php?IdNoticia=374198) (tool)
- [eldeber.com.bo](https://eldeber.com.bo/la-paz/comision-fiscales-trasladara-jueves-chonchocoro-tomar-nuevas-declaraciones-cerimedo_1790082204) (tool)
- [diarioportal.com](https://diarioportal.com/mundo-animal/detienen-a-golpeador-de-perros-en-los-reyes) (tool)
- [infobae.com](https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2026/09/21/detuvieron-a-siete-brasileno-acusados-de-ejecutar-cuatro-asesinatos-en-una-localidad-de-bolivia) (tool)
- [erbol.com.bo](https://www.erbol.com.bo/seguridad/trasladar%C3%A1n-chonchocoro-los-brasile%C3%B1os-implicados-en-la-violencia-de-san-ignacio) (tool)
- [eldiariocba.com.ar](http://www.eldiariocba.com.ar/nacionales/2026/9/21/un-desfasaje-bajo-la-lupa-en-andis-153151.html) (tool)
- [elancasti.com.ar](https://www.elancasti.com.ar/edicion-impresa/seis-mujeres-desaparecidas-y-busquedas-que-se-prolongaron-anos-n622058) (tool)
- [elespectador.com](https://www.elespectador.com/opinion/columnistas/julian-de-zubiria-samper/el-auge-de-las-plataformas-tecnologicas-y-el-declive-de-las-democracias-en-el-mundo) (tool)
- [eluniversal.com.co](https://www.eluniversal.com.co/sucesos/2026/09/21/condenan-a-los-2-sicarios-que-le-quitaron-la-vida-a-jean-carlos-perez-frente-a-sus-3-hijos) (tool)
- [eju.tv](https://eju.tv/2026/09/santa-cruz-presentan-a-siete-extranjeros-vinculados-con-ola-de-crimenes-en-san-ignacio-de-velasco) (tool)
- [abc.com.py](https://www.abc.com.py/politica/2026/09/20/la-amistad-es-privada-y-la-funcion-del-estado-es-publica-reclaman-al-canciller-por-el-caso-andy-rivas) (tool)
- [correodelcaroni.com](https://correodelcaroni.com/laboral-economia/daniel-romero-ante-dinorah-figuera-hay-mas-de-500-trabajadores-del-estado-bolivar-judicializados) (tool)
- [diariopanorama.com](https://www.diariopanorama.com/noticia/567047/monte-quemado-secuestraron-cocaina-apresan-tres-delincuentes) (tool)
- [hoybolivia.com](https://hoybolivia.com/Noticia.php?IdNoticia=374173) (tool)
- [cronica.com.ar](https://www.cronica.com.ar/policiales/capturaron-a-femicida-estrangulo-a-su-esposa-y-dijo-que) (tool)
- [eldeber.com.bo](https://eldeber.com.bo/cochabamba/estudiantes-levantan-bloqueo-ruta-santa-cruz-cochabamba-acordar-cambio-rector-unibol-quechua_1789787528) (tool)
- [eju.tv](https://eju.tv/2026/09/operativo-en-san-ignacio-de-velasco-deja-seis-detenidos-investigados-por-el-doble-crimen) (tool)
- [clarin.com](https://www.clarin.com/opinion/malvinas-caballo-troya-reeleccion-milei-bullrich-atrapada-salida_0_KS8XPsipKR.html) (tool)
- [lostiempos.com](https://www.lostiempos.com/actualidad/seguridad/20260920/capturan-7-implicados-ola-asesinatos-san-ignacio-velasco) (tool)
- [eju.tv](https://eju.tv/2026/09/brasileno-condenado-a-66-anos-en-su-pais-fue-expulsado-de-bolivia-tras-ser-capturado-en-beni) (tool)
- [elsol.com.ar](https://www.elsol.com.ar/policiales/condenaron-a-la-banda-que-cayo-por-escuchas-que-nacieron-de-un-secuestro-y-terminaron-en-26-kilos-de-cocaina) (tool)
- [mdzol.com](https://www.mdzol.com/sociedad/brutal-tiroteo-la-frontera-argentina-y-bolivia-bagayeros-se-enfrentaron-gendarmeria-un-operativo-n1609901) (tool)
- [eju.tv](https://eju.tv/2026/09/la-paz-lleva-mas-de-10-experiencias-maravillosas-a-la-expocruz-2026) (tool)
- [eldeber.com.bo](https://eldeber.com.bo/pais/eeuu-da-via-libre-juicio-marset-respalda-pruebas-obtenidas-captura-bolivia_1789680869) (tool)
- [tiemposur.com.ar](https://www.tiemposur.com.ar/policiales/policia-federal-detiene-a-un-sujeto-con-pedido-de-captura-internacional) (tool)
- [eldeber.com.bo](https://eldeber.com.bo/santa-cruz/aprehenden-brasileno-investigado-doble-crimen-san-ignacio-velasco_1789700244) (tool)
- [eldeber.com.bo](https://eldeber.com.bo/santa-cruz/capturan-cinco-extranjeros-boliviano-vinculados-asesinatos-san-ignacio-velasco_1789747797) (tool)
- [eltiempo.com](https://www.eltiempo.com/colombia/otras-ciudades/incendios-forestales-han-arrasado-cerca-de-2-300-hectareas-de-cobertura-vegetal-en-el-huila-llamas-y-altas-temperaturas-calientan-a-22-municipios-3587106) (tool)
- [eldia.com.bo](https://www.eldia.com.bo/2026-09-17/pais/gobierno-asegura-que-el-narcoterrorismo-penetro-algunas-zonas-y-alista-nuevo-plan-para-combatirlo.html) (tool)
- [elancasti.com.ar](https://www.elancasti.com.ar/triple-crimen-florencio-varela-arrestaron-al-sospechoso-haber-trasladado-las-jovenes-n621897) (tool)
- [hngn.com](https://www.hngn.com/articles/273286/20260918/scientists-identify-new-wild-cat-species-bolivia-first-100-years.htm) (tool)
- [eldeber.com.bo](https://eldeber.com.bo/opinion/naza_1789681527) (tool)

## Question Details

This question asks whether Rodrigo Paz Pereira will continue to hold the office of President of the Plurinational State of Bolivia without interruption through the end of calendar year 2026. Rodrigo Paz Pereira assumed the presidency on 8 November 2025 after winning the 2025 presidential election and is the incumbent president as of June 2026. Recent reporting has described significant political and social unrest, including nationwide protests, road blockades, cabinet resignations, and public calls for his resignation during 2026. (presidencia.gob.bo) (elpais.com) The forecasting period runs from the time the question is asked until 31 December 2026. The question concerns whether Paz remains president continuously through that date.

### Resolution Criteria

Resolve YES if Rodrigo Paz Pereira is still serving as President of Bolivia at 23:59 local time in Bolivia on 31 December 2026 and has not permanently left the office before that moment. Resolve NO if, at any time before that moment, he ceases to be President of Bolivia due to resignation, removal, impeachment, death, incapacity, judicial or constitutional action, military coup, succession, replacement by an acting or permanent president, or any other loss of the presidency. Resolution will be based on official Bolivian government announcements and records. If those are unclear or unavailable, major international news organizations and widely recognized reference sources documenting the officeholder of the Bolivian presidency may be used.

### Fine Print

Temporary foreign travel, medical leave, or short-term delegation of powers does not count as leaving office if Rodrigo Paz Pereira legally remains President. If constitutional succession transfers the presidency to another person, even on an interim basis, before the end of 31 December 2026, the question resolves NO. If he leaves office and later returns before the end of 2026, the question still resolves NO because he did not remain in power continuously through the period. If reliable information sufficient to determine the officeholder is unavailable on the resolution check date, resolution may be delayed until the facts can be established.