# Will the ceasefire between Iran and the United States continue to hold 7 days from today?

Canonical URL: https://preseen.com/reports/1832b744-eb77-40ae-965b-2e805ec11b9e/will-the-ceasefire-between-iran-and-the-united-states-continue-to-hold-7-days-fr
Markdown URL: https://preseen.com/reports/1832b744-eb77-40ae-965b-2e805ec11b9e/markdown

## Forecast

P(Yes): 73.6%; P(No): 26.4%.

Generated: May 26, 2026 at 11:13 PM UTC
Forecast model: gpt-5.5
Research model: gpt-5.5

## Analysis

## TL;DR
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire has a 74% chance of still being treated as in effect on June 2, 2026.

## Context
The forecast date is May 26, 2026, so the resolution date is June 2, 2026 under the question’s seven-calendar-day rule. The key threshold is not whether either side fires at all. It is whether major reporting says direct U.S.-Iran hostilities have resumed in a sustained or large-scale way, or that the ceasefire has ended.

A ceasefire was announced on April 7 in Washington and April 8 in the region as a Pakistan-mediated two-week pause tied to safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz ([Reuters via GMA, Apr. 8](https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/world/983015/trump-says-he-has-agreed-to-two-week-ceasefire-with-iran/story/)). As of May 26, AP still describes the latest U.S. strikes as taking place in a weekslong ceasefire that has largely held: the U.S. said the May 25 strikes hit missile launch sites and minelaying boats while acting with restraint, while Iran called them a ceasefire violation and warned of consequences ([AP, May 26](https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-negotiations-ceasefire-trump-47980a4d87c63c0adb873d306f9b932c)).

## Evidence
The historical backbone points to short-term survival, but it is a weak fit. The ETH/PRIO Civil Conflict CeaseFire dataset covers civil-conflict ceasefires from 1989 to 2020, with 2,202 ceasefires across 66 countries and 109 civil conflicts in the 2022 article vintage ([PRIO](https://www.prio.org/publications/13532)). Clayton and Sticher’s 2021 survival models use written civil-war ceasefires from 1990 to 2019 and a 25 battle-death failure threshold; 30 days after entry into effect, 85% of cessation-of-hostilities agreements, 92% of preliminary ceasefires, and 96% of definitive ceasefires remain active, while by three months those figures fall to 48%, 70%, and 80% ([International Studies Quarterly](https://academic.oup.com/isq/article/65/3/633/6277949)). A constant-hazard conversion over the day-30-to-day-90 interval gives a seven-day survival anchor near 94% for a low-grade cessation-of-hostilities agreement. I cut far below that because this is an interstate crisis, the parties are still firing, and there is no visible monitoring mechanism.

The best current-status evidence is that the ceasefire label has survived prior direct clashes. On May 7, Iran fired missiles, drones, and small boats at three U.S. naval vessels, and the U.S. struck Iranian launch sites, command nodes, and intelligence sites; Axios reported that a U.S. official said the exchange did not constitute a resumption of the war, and CENTCOM said it did not seek escalation ([Axios, May 7](https://www.axios.com/2026/05/07/us-iran-hormuz-strait-fire-exchange), [CENTCOM, May 7](https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4480437/centcom-protects-us-warships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz/)). Reuters also described that May 7 exchange as the most serious test of the month-old ceasefire, while Trump said the ceasefire was still in effect and Iran said the situation returned to normal ([Reuters via GMA, May 8](https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/world/986872/us-and-iran-exchange-fire-but-trump-says-ceasefire-still-in-effect/story/)). That is strong revealed evidence that isolated or self-defense-framed direct exchanges do not automatically resolve this question NO.

The strongest negative evidence is the live maritime fight. CENTCOM says the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports began April 13; by May 23, U.S. forces had redirected 100 commercial vessels, disabled four, allowed 26 humanitarian aid ships through, and deployed more than 15,000 personnel plus more than 200 aircraft and warships for the mission ([CENTCOM, May 23](https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4499878/us-blockade-of-iran-reaches-milestone-of-redirecting-100-ships/)). Reuters reported on May 26 that only a few dozen vessels had been passing through the Strait of Hormuz since U.S. and Israeli strikes began on February 28, compared with 125 to 140 daily before the war; Iranian state TV said 32 vessels and five oil tankers had passed in the prior 24 hours with IRGC authorization ([Reuters via KSL, May 26](https://www.ksl.com/article/51502097/us-launches-fresh-strikes-on-iran-as-talks-to-end-war-proceed)).

The structured shipping data tells the same story. Units are average daily vessel transits and average daily deadweight/cargo capacity tons at the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. The PortWatch series starts in March 2023, the latest observation in the May 26 extract was May 17, 2026, and the annual table below uses 1,000 daily observations in current vintage ([IMF PortWatch](https://portwatch.imf.org/)).

| Year | Observed days | Avg vessels/day | Avg capacity tons/day |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2023 | 132 | 96.6 | 3,751,238 |
| 2024 | 366 | 98.6 | 3,795,757 |
| 2025 | 365 | 93.7 | 3,571,863 |
| 2026 | 137 | 39.5 | 1,568,124 |

The strongest positive evidence is that the diplomatic path is still real and concrete. Axios reported on May 24 that the draft MOU under discussion would extend the ceasefire for 60 days, reopen Hormuz, let Iran sell oil, lift the U.S. blockade in steps, and defer harder nuclear talks to the 60-day period, while warning that the deal was not finalized and could still fall apart ([Axios, May 24](https://www.axios.com/2026/05/24/iran-deal-strait-hormuz-sanctions-nuclear)). AP reported on May 26 that negotiations on extending the ceasefire and reopening Hormuz were still expected to take a few days, though Iranian officials had left Qatar without a public next step ([AP, May 26](https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-negotiations-ceasefire-trump-47980a4d87c63c0adb873d306f9b932c)). CBS reported the same day that Rubio said a deal was still possible within days despite the strikes, but that Hormuz would reopen one way or the other ([CBS, May 26](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-us-war-trump-deal-obstacles-remain/)).

My scenario model is:

| Path from May 26 to June 2 | Probability | P(YES \| path) | Contribution |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| Framework, MOU, or ceasefire extension is announced or treated as operative | 39% | 96% | 37.4% |
| Talks continue without a formal deal; dirty ceasefire remains the frame | 33% | 82% | 27.1% |
| Another serious direct exchange occurs, but reporting still treats it as contained or disputed | 17% | 50% | 8.5% |
| Talks collapse, one side declares the ceasefire over, or sustained large-scale direct hostilities resume | 11% | 5% | 0.6% |

This sums to 74%. The largest uncertainty is not model precision. It is whether the next direct incident produces U.S. casualties, major ship damage, or an official political decision to stop preserving the ceasefire label.

## What's non-obvious
The obvious read is that U.S. strikes on Iranian targets mean the ceasefire is already over. The reporting pattern says otherwise. AP, Reuters, Axios, and CENTCOM have repeatedly framed direct fire since early May as a violation, test, or self-defense action inside a fragile ceasefire, not as the public restart of the February war ([AP, May 25](https://apnews.com/article/iran-deal-trump-israel-abrams-01a13e9a63c0adb873d306f9b932c), [Reuters via GMA, May 8](https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/world/986872/us-and-iran-exchange-fire-but-trump-says-ceasefire-still-in-effect/story/)). That makes the ceasefire more durable as a label than as a true absence of violence.

The other missed point is that both sides gain from keeping the label alive for one more week. The U.S. can keep blockade pressure and self-defense strikes while arguing that major hostilities are paused, an argument Trump already used when telling Congress on May 1 that hostilities had terminated after the April ceasefire ([Axios, May 1](https://www.axios.com/2026/05/01/trump-declares-hostilities-with-iran-terminated)). Iran can denounce violations and retain Hormuz leverage while bargaining over blockade relief, oil sales, frozen funds, and the sequencing of nuclear talks ([Al Jazeera, May 25](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/25/rubio-says-us-will-find-another-way-if-iran-talks-fail)). That is why I put YES above 70% despite the fresh strikes.

## Limitations
The largest limitation is definitional. Iran and some coverage say the U.S. broke or violated the ceasefire after the May 25 strikes, while AP and Reuters-style reporting still treat the ceasefire as ongoing or fragile ([Euronews Persian, May 26](https://parsi.euronews.com/2026/05/26/iran-accuses-us-of-violating-ceasefire), [AP, May 26](https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-negotiations-ceasefire-trump-47980a4d87c63c0adb873d306f9b932c)). If the resolver treats the May 25 strikes themselves as renewed active hostilities, this forecast is too high. I read the criteria as requiring a wider major-source consensus that the ceasefire has ended.

The second limitation is source fit. The best ceasefire base rates are civil-war datasets, not interstate U.S.-Iran naval escalation data, and the current case has a global oil chokepoint, a U.S. blockade, no public monitoring mechanism, and direct military contact at sea ([PRIO](https://www.prio.org/publications/13532), [CENTCOM, May 23](https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4499878/us-blockade-of-iran-reaches-milestone-of-redirecting-100-ships/)). I therefore used the historical numbers as an anchor, not as the forecast.

The third limitation is data freshness. PortWatch’s latest structured shipping observation available to me was May 17, nine days before the forecast timestamp, while the news reports on May 25–26 are fresher ([IMF PortWatch](https://portwatch.imf.org/), [Reuters via KSL, May 26](https://www.ksl.com/article/51502097/us-launches-fresh-strikes-on-iran-as-talks-to-end-war-proceed)). A sudden mining incident, a U.S. casualty event, or a signed MOU could move the probability by 15 to 25 percentage points within hours.

## Sources

- imf Portwatch (mcp)
  > Daily averages by year:
- Domain Expert Search (mcp)
  > Found 5 subagent groups for 'United States Iran ceasefire Strait of Hormuz current conflict decision makers Trump Iranian leadership negotiations escalation commentary':
- Domain Expert Research Task (mcp)
  > Job domain_expert_research_task_abbcea0bfc done after 477625ms.
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/01a13e9a63ece786a0a7fa4933dbf09b) (tool)
- [ca.investing.com](https://ca.investing.com/news/commodities-news/us-iran-agree-to-twoweek-ceasefire-with-reopening-of-strait-of-hormuz-4553886?ampMode=1) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/47980a4d87c63c0adb873d306f9b932c) (tool)
- [internazionale.it](https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/05/25/iran-s-top-envoys-discussing-potential-peace-deal-with-qatar-prime-minister-official-says-2) (tool)
- [reutersconnect.com](https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/hegseth-says-iran-ceasefire-still-in-effect/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX1ZBNzk4MjA1MDUyMDI2UlAx/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX0xWQTAwMzc5ODIwNTA1MjAyNlJQMQ) (tool)
- [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/rubio-says-us-will-find-another-way-if-iran-talks-fail-4708305) (tool)
- [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/shipping-traffic-through-hormuz-remains-muted-with-no-usiran-deal-in-sight-data-shows-4638560) (tool)
- [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/explainerwhat-needs-to-be-agreed-to-end-the-iran-war-4708513) (tool)
- [gmanetwork.com](https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/world/984592/world-weighs-fate-of-mideast-ceasefire-after-us-seizes-iranian-cargo-ship/story) (tool)
- [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/us-and-iran-report-progress-on-talks-ending-war-looking-to-next-few-days-4708058) (tool)
- [internazionale.it](https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/04/20/ceasefire-at-risk-after-us-seizes-iranian-ship-iran-shuns-peace-talks-2) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/a4857f28d9b47e0170b65ced19451a25) (tool)
- [centcom.mil](https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4480437/centcom-protects-us-warships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/8a1bafe95f2d76665d65db4effd91680) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/0e9067769efea20e9d45e3d43158ad8c) (tool)
- [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/rubio-says-iran-deal-could-take-days-as-us-launches-fresh-strikes-4708711) (tool)
- [pbs.org](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/watch-live-hegseth-and-caine-hold-briefing-a-day-after-new-u-s-effort-in-strait-of-hormuz-begins) (tool)
- gpr (mcp)
  > Country GPR Index (Benchmark (1985-present))
- Correlatesofwar (mcp)
  > Inter-State Wars involving 'United States'
- [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/us-military-strikes-iranian-boats-missile-launch-sites-centcom-4708667) (tool)
- [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/us-carries-out-retaliatory-strikes-against-iran-us-military-says-4670305) (tool)
- [kpbs.org](https://www.kpbs.org/news/national/2026/04/07/u-s-and-iran-agree-to-2-week-ceasefire-suspending-trumps-threat-to-annihilate-iran) (tool)
- [ksl.com](https://www.ksl.com/article/51486416/us-indefinitely-extends-ceasefire-with-iran) (tool)
- [whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/SAP-HCR86.pdf) (tool)
- [internazionale.it](https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/05/26/iran-says-new-us-strikes-violate-ceasefire) (tool)
- [centcom.mil](https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4457255/us-to-blockade-ships-entering-or-exiting-iranian-ports) (tool)
- [centcom.mil](https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4464037/us-forces-disable-vessel-attempting-to-enter-iranian-port-violate-blockade) (tool)
- [centcom.mil](https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4480820/us-disables-2-more-vessels-violating-blockade-in-gulf-of-oman) (tool)
- [internazionale.it](https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/05/18/trump-says-he-paused-attack-on-iran-as-negotiations-continue-2) (tool)
- [axios.com](https://www.axios.com/2026/05/22/trump-iran-meeting-resume-war-deal) (tool)
- [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/trump-says-iran-deal-largely-negotiated-dispute-over-strait-reopening-4708125) (tool)
- [cbsnews.com](https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/trump-says-called-off-scheduled-iran-attack-gulf-partners) (tool)
- [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/trump-says-negotiators-are-getting-closer-to-iran-deal-media-interviews-show-4708066) (tool)
- [centcom.mil](https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4499878/us-blockade-of-iran-reaches-milestone-of-redirecting-100-ships) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/b1659232611edc10808612e30647c17d) (tool)
- [academic.oup.com](https://academic.oup.com/isq/article/65/3/633/6277949) (tool)
- [prio.org](https://www.prio.org/publications/13532) (tool)
- [cambridge.org](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/scraps-of-paper-agreements-and-the-durability-of-peace/70A924CC6B4785C30BADF415244FFA1F) (tool)
- [britannica.com](https://www.britannica.com/event/1948-Arab-Israeli-War) (tool)
- [britannica.com](https://www.britannica.com/event/War-of-Attrition-1969-1970) (tool)
- [britannica.com](https://www.britannica.com/event/Iran-Iraq-War) (tool)
- [archives.gov](https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/armistice-agreement-restoration-south-korean-state) (tool)
- [uu.diva-portal.org](https://uu.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2%3A1796521/FULLTEXT01.pdf) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/1c283f26d037102cc5e6f798546d0e59) (tool)
- [latimes.com](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-05-26/iran-condemns-u-s-strikes-as-show-of-bad-faith-begins-restoring-internet-after-long-shutdown) (tool)
- [axios.com](https://www.axios.com/2026/05/23/trump-iran-deal-resume-war-interview) (tool)
- [whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/04/peace-through-strength-operation-epic-fury-crushes-iranian-threat-as-ceasefire-takes-hold) (tool)

## Question Details

As of May 4, 2026, the United States and Iran are in a fragile and temporary ceasefire following the outbreak of war on February 28, 2026. A two-week ceasefire was agreed around April 7–8, 2026, and although U.S. officials have claimed that hostilities have ‘terminated’ since then, tensions remain extremely high, with recent reports of Iranian fire on U.S. ships and threats to maritime operations in the Strait of Hormuz putting the ceasefire at risk. (en.wikipedia.org) This question asks: if assessed on a given calendar date (the "forecast date"), will the ceasefire between Iran and the United States still be holding 7 days later? For example, if the forecast date is May 4, 2026, the resolution date would be May 11, 2026. The question is intended to be evergreen and reusable: each time it is forecast, it refers to whether the ceasefire remains in effect 7 days after the forecast date.

### Resolution Criteria

The question resolves YES if, on the calendar date exactly 7 days after the forecast date, a ceasefire between Iran and the United States is still in effect. A ceasefire is considered to be "still in effect" if there has been no acknowledged resumption of sustained or large-scale military hostilities between U.S. and Iranian forces prior to or on the resolution date. The question resolves NO if, before or on the resolution date, there is clear and widely reported evidence of renewed active hostilities between the United States and Iran, including but not limited to: - Airstrikes, missile strikes, or naval attacks conducted by either side against the other - Sustained exchanges of fire between U.S. and Iranian forces - An official declaration by either government that the ceasefire has ended or that hostilities have resumed Isolated incidents (e.g., single exchanges, proxy attacks, warnings, or minor skirmishes) do NOT by themselves count as a breakdown unless they are widely characterized by reliable sources as ending the ceasefire. Resolution will be based on consensus reporting from major international news organizations (e.g., AP, Reuters, BBC, Washington Post, New York Times).

### Fine Print

- The "forecast date" is the date on which the prediction is made; the "resolution date" is exactly 7 days later (using calendar days, not hours). - If no ceasefire is in effect on the forecast date, the question resolves NO. - If the status of the ceasefire is ambiguous or disputed, resolution should follow the preponderance of credible reporting. - Cyberattacks, proxy actions by third parties, or economic measures (e.g., sanctions, blockades) do not count as ending the ceasefire unless they are widely reported as marking a return to open warfare between the U.S. and Iran. - If no reliable information is available to determine whether the ceasefire is still in effect, the question should be annulled. - The question concerns direct conflict between the United States and Iran only; actions involving third countries count only if they clearly constitute U.S.–Iran hostilities.