# Which airlines will take control of the takeoff and landing slots at LaGuardia that were held by Spirit Airlines prior to their May 2026 bankruptcy?

Canonical URL: https://preseen.com/reports/12bcb5de-410a-49b8-834c-0022e9ff00e7/which-airlines-will-take-control-of-the-takeoff-and-landing-slots-at-laguardia-t
Markdown URL: https://preseen.com/reports/12bcb5de-410a-49b8-834c-0022e9ff00e7/markdown

## Forecast

Top outcome: Frontier Airlines at 52.2%. Other leading outcomes: JetBlue Airways: 24.6%; Southwest Airlines: 21.7%; Other airline(s): 19.7%; American Airlines: 13.0%.

Generated: June 23, 2026 at 10:48 PM UTC
Forecast model: gpt-5.5
Research model: gpt-5.5

## Analysis

## TL;DR
Frontier Airlines is the lead outcome at 52% because it is the cleanest low-fare replacement, already agreed in 2023 to take this exact Spirit LGA package, and starts from a tiny LGA slot base ([JetBlue/Frontier 2023](https://news.jetblue.com/latest-news/press-release-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Frontier-Announce-Divestiture-Agreement-in-Connection-with-JetBlues-Combination-with-Spirit/default.aspx); [FAA holder totals](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_HOLDER_TOTALS.pdf)). JetBlue, Southwest, and Other airline(s) are live split-award paths at 25%, 22%, and 20%, with Porter and domestic low-cost entrants inside the Other bucket ([Bloomberg Law, Jun. 17, 2026](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/private-equity/spirits-laguardia-slot-sale-kicks-off-high-stakes-airport-fight)). American is a 13% cash-spoiler; Delta, United, and Alaska stay below 4% because they do not solve the low-fare and limited-incumbent problem that the FAA signal and prior slot remedies point toward ([FAA LGA order, May 13, 2024](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/05/13/2024-10298/operating-limitations-at-new-york-laguardia-airport); [DOJ American/US Airways settlement, Nov. 12, 2013](https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-requires-us-airways-and-american-airlines-divest-facilities-seven-key)).

## Context
Spirit began an immediate wind-down on May 2, 2026, and said all Spirit flights had been cancelled ([Spirit restructuring release, May 2, 2026](https://www.spiritrestructuring.com/resources/Spirit-Airlines-Begins-Orderly-Wind-Down-of-Operations.pdf)). At the June 23, 2026 forecast cutoff, no final recipient had been reported: Judge Sean H. Lane approved Spirit to market the LaGuardia slots on June 10, 2026, and the public sale calendar still had final bids due June 30, 2026 and an auction set for July 9, 2026 ([Bloomberg Law, Jun. 10, 2026](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/spirit-airlines-wins-court-approval-to-market-laguardia-slots); [Bloomberg Law, Jun. 17, 2026](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/private-equity/spirits-laguardia-slot-sale-kicks-off-high-stakes-airport-fight)).

The asset is best read as 22 individual LaGuardia Operating Authorizations, not 22 round-trip slot pairs. The FAA Summer 2025 holder and operator reports both list Spirit at 22 LGA slots, and The Points Guy translated 22 takeoff-or-landing slots into roughly 12 daily flights because an airline needs separate arrival and departure rights ([FAA holder totals, generated Dec. 5, 2025](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_HOLDER_TOTALS.pdf); [FAA operator totals, generated Dec. 9, 2025](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_OPERATOR_TOTALS.pdf); [The Points Guy, May 28, 2026](https://thepointsguy.com/news/spirit-laguardia-slots/)).

## Evidence
The historical backbone favors low-fare or limited-incumbent recipients when regulators have leverage over scarce LaGuardia capacity. The reference class is small, N=4, but it is coherent: in 2008 Southwest agreed to buy 14 ATA LaGuardia slots for $7.5 million through bankruptcy; in the Delta/US Airways slot swap, DOT forced divestitures and limited eligibility to carriers with less than 5% of slots, with JetBlue and WestJet winning the LGA bundles; in the 2013 American/US Airways settlement, DOJ required 34 LGA slots plus supporting facilities to be divested to low-cost carrier purchasers; and in 2023 JetBlue and Frontier signed a deal under which Frontier would receive all Spirit LGA holdings, principally six Marine Air Terminal gates and 22 takeoff and landing slots, if the JetBlue-Spirit merger closed ([Travel Weekly, Nov. 19, 2008](https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News/Airline-News/Southwest-to-launch-LaGuardia-service-after-purchasing-ATA-slots); [DOT, Aug. 1, 2019 archive of 2011 slot auction](https://www.transportation.gov/briefing-room/jetblue-westjet-gain-slots-laguardia-reagan-national-airports); [DOJ, Nov. 12, 2013](https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-requires-us-airways-and-american-airlines-divest-facilities-seven-key); [JetBlue/Frontier, Jun. 1, 2023](https://news.jetblue.com/latest-news/press-release-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Frontier-Announce-Divestiture-Agreement-in-Connection-with-JetBlues-Combination-with-Spirit/default.aspx)).

The current FAA data make the concentration issue plain. The official Summer 2025 holder report was generated on Dec. 5, 2025, had status date 2025, covered 12 named holders, excluded FAA-held slots and slots held fewer than five days, and used individual Operating Authorizations as the unit; the matching operator report was generated on Dec. 9, 2025 and reflects actual scheduled operation rather than slot-control standing ([FAA data page, last updated Jan. 21, 2026](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data); [FAA holder totals](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_HOLDER_TOTALS.pdf); [FAA operator totals](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_OPERATOR_TOTALS.pdf)). In the 1,141-slot holder sample, Delta and American together held 838 OAs, or 73.4%; Spirit held 22 OAs, or 1.9%; Frontier held 4; JetBlue held 31; Southwest held 57; United held 94; and Alaska held 12 ([FAA holder totals](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_HOLDER_TOTALS.pdf)).

| Carrier | Summer 2025 holder OAs | Summer 2025 operator OAs | Forecast read |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 511 | 580 | Best operational fit, worst concentration case. |
| American Airlines | 327 | 327 | Can pay and use the slots, but already the second-largest holder. |
| United Airlines | 94 | 67 | Less concentrated than Delta or American, but still not the low-fare replacement signal. |
| Southwest Airlines | 57 | 70 | Low-fare brand and existing operator. |
| JetBlue Airways | 31 | 31 | Limited LGA incumbent with New York and Fort Lauderdale fit, but prior Spirit-merger history hurts. |
| Alaska Airlines | 12 | not listed | Clean on concentration, weak on strategy and public signals. |
| Frontier Airlines | 4 | 10 | Best low-fare replacement and prior exact-asset recipient. |
| Spirit Airlines | 22 | 22 | The target package. |
| Porter Airlines | not listed | 6 | Main Other-airline candidate. |

The current policy signal points the same way as the history. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said Spirit’s former LGA slots should go to another low-cost carrier and could be retired if that does not happen, while the current LGA order lets carriers trade or lease OAs only after written FAA confirmation and also lets FAA retire, withdraw, or lottery-reallocate unused or unassigned OAs ([AirlineGeeks, May 28, 2026](https://airlinegeeks.com/2026/05/28/faa-chief-spirits-slots-at-laguardia-should-go-to-another-low-cost-carrier/); [FAA LGA order, May 13, 2024](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/05/13/2024-10298/operating-limitations-at-new-york-laguardia-airport)). The Port Authority added a second veto point by objecting that Spirit’s slots have no value without permission to use airport facilities, which cannot simply be auctioned with the slots ([Bloomberg Law, Jun. 4, 2026](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/ny-port-authority-objects-to-spirit-push-to-sell-laguardia-slots)). JetBlue’s regulatory downside is concrete: DOJ said in 2024 that the proposed JetBlue-Spirit deal would have produced higher fares and fewer choices by eliminating Spirit as an ultra-low-cost competitor ([DOJ, Mar. 4, 2024](https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-statements-jetblue-terminating-acquisition-spirit-airlines)).

The bidder-interest signals are mixed but useful. Bloomberg Law reported that JetBlue is evaluating LaGuardia opportunities, Porter is interested in more LGA slots once the allocation process is defined, and the Port Authority letter said airlines including Allegiant, Frontier, El Al, Arkia, and Etihad were interested in expanding or entering Port Authority airport markets ([Bloomberg Law, Jun. 17, 2026](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/private-equity/spirits-laguardia-slot-sale-kicks-off-high-stakes-airport-fight)). The Points Guy reported that Frontier would look at Spirit wind-down assets but stay disciplined, that American’s CEO described American as historically aggressive when assets become available, and that United’s CEO did not expect United to participate in consolidation for the foreseeable future ([The Points Guy, May 28, 2026](https://thepointsguy.com/news/spirit-laguardia-slots/)). Frontier’s willingness to pay is the main constraint, not capacity to pay: Frontier reported $974 million of total liquidity at March 31, 2026, versus Spirit’s roughly $87 million slot valuation reported in the sale coverage ([Frontier Q1 2026 results](https://ir.flyfrontier.com/news-events/news/news-details/2026/Frontier-Airlines-Reports-First-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx); [The Points Guy, May 28, 2026](https://thepointsguy.com/news/spirit-laguardia-slots/)).

A weaker but decision-relevant signal is who is already replacing Spirit. Aviation Week, using OAG schedules, analyzed 339 routes served by Spirit in summer 2025 and found that competitors had added about 2.7 million seats for June-August 2026, replacing about 48% of Spirit’s 5.67 million seats across those routes; Frontier added about 1.3 million seats, JetBlue more than 500,000, United about 334,000, American about 299,000, Southwest about 130,000, and Breeze about 134,000 ([Aviation Week, Jun. 16, 2026](https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/airports-networks/analysis-spirits-exit-drives-growth-frontier-jetblue)). I read that as support for Frontier and JetBlue appetite, not as direct evidence that either wins LGA.

My model has three process paths: 66% single package award, 26% split sale or regulatory reallocation, and 8% retirement, failed sale, or no clear formal allocation before the resolution deadline. In the single-package branch I assign Frontier 50%, JetBlue 16%, Southwest 14%, American 9%, Other airline(s) 7%, United 2%, Delta 1.5%, and Alaska 0.5%. In the split branch I use inclusion probabilities of Frontier 74%, JetBlue 54%, Southwest 48%, Other 58%, American 27%, United 9%, Delta 5%, and Alaska 3%. The arithmetic is P_i = 0.66×S_i + 0.26×M_i, where S_i is the single-buyer share and M_i is the chance of receiving at least one usable pair in the split branch.

## What's non-obvious
The word 'slot pair' is the biggest trap. The official FAA reports and Spirit sale coverage point to 22 individual OAs, not 22 full round-trip pairs, so the package is closer to 11 or 12 daily flights than to a whole focus-city buildout ([FAA holder details](https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ato/service_units/systemops/perf_analysis/slot_administration/data/doc/LGA_S25_Slot_HOLDER_DETAILS.pdf); [The Points Guy, May 28, 2026](https://thepointsguy.com/news/spirit-laguardia-slots/)). That makes a single-buyer outcome easier than a broad many-airline split, but it still leaves enough room for multiple YES resolutions if FAA or the Port Authority pushes a carve-out.

The other trap is treating this as a pure bankruptcy auction. The bankruptcy estate wants value, but an airline cannot use LGA OAs without FAA confirmation, and it also needs usable terminal, gate, counter, and ground-handling rights from the airport sponsor ([FAA LGA order, May 13, 2024](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/05/13/2024-10298/operating-limitations-at-new-york-laguardia-airport); [Bloomberg Law, Jun. 4, 2026](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/ny-port-authority-objects-to-spirit-push-to-sell-laguardia-slots)). This is why Frontier can beat a richer legacy bid if it submits a credible bid: it offers the cleanest regulatory story, and its 2023 agreement already bundled Spirit’s slots with the Marine Air Terminal gate package ([JetBlue/Frontier, Jun. 1, 2023](https://news.jetblue.com/latest-news/press-release-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Frontier-Announce-Divestiture-Agreement-in-Connection-with-JetBlues-Combination-with-Spirit/default.aspx)).

## Limitations
The main missing facts are the qualified-bidder list, bid prices, any stalking-horse designation, the final sale order, FAA/DOT transfer confirmation, and a Port Authority agreement for facilities. The public record before the June 30 bid deadline gives good constraints but not the decisive private information ([Bloomberg Law, Jun. 17, 2026](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/private-equity/spirits-laguardia-slot-sale-kicks-off-high-stakes-airport-fight)).

The forecast is most sensitive to three private facts. If Frontier does not bid seriously, JetBlue, Southwest, Other airline(s), and American rise sharply. If FAA and DOT treat Bedford’s low-cost comment as advisory rather than binding, American and possibly United rise. If the Port Authority insists on a Terminal A tenant or a facility package rather than just slot timing, Frontier and some Other-airline paths rise while American and JetBlue fall.

## Sources

- Domain Expert Search (mcp)
  > Found 14 subagent groups for 'US aviation slot allocation FAA DOT LaGuardia airport bankruptcy airline antitrust competition policy':
- bts Transtats (mcp)
  > Yearly Passengers at LGA — 1990..2025
- Court Listener (mcp)
  > Found 1 total dockets (showing 1-1):
- faa (mcp)
  > FAA National Airspace System Status
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  > Job domain_expert_research_task_defdf1f0ef done after 358941ms.
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## Question Details

On May 2, 2026, Spirit Airlines ceased operations and began liquidating its assets following bankruptcy, canceling all flights and vacating facilities including its operations at LaGuardia Airport (LGA) in New York. (opb.org) Spirit had been the sole tenant of the Marine Air Terminal at LaGuardia and held a portfolio of FAA-controlled takeoff and landing slots at this slot-constrained airport. (en.wikipedia.org) In a liquidation scenario, such slots are valuable assets that may be reassigned by regulators (e.g., the FAA and U.S. Department of Transportation) or transferred/sold through bankruptcy proceedings to other airlines. This question asks which airlines will ultimately take control (through purchase, transfer, or regulatory reallocation) of the LaGuardia slot pairs that were held by Spirit Airlines immediately prior to its shutdown on May 2, 2026. The resolution will consider developments from May 2, 2026 onward until a clear, authoritative allocation of the majority of these slots has occurred.

### Resolution Criteria

This question will resolve based on publicly reported final allocation(s) of Spirit Airlines' former LaGuardia (LGA) slot pairs. Primary sources for resolution will include: - Official announcements or orders from the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) or Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) - Bankruptcy court filings or rulings related to Spirit Airlines asset disposition - Confirmed reporting from major reputable news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP News, Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal) Each listed airline option will be considered "true" if it is confirmed to have obtained control of at least one slot pair formerly held by Spirit at LGA, whether via purchase, lease, or regulatory reassignment. If multiple airlines acquire slots, multiple options may resolve as true. If no clear or final allocation is reported by May 2, 2028, the question will be annulled.

### Fine Print

- "Control" includes ownership, long-term lease, or formal allocation of slot usage rights sufficient to operate scheduled service at LGA. - Temporary or emergency use of slots (e.g., short-term accommodation flights immediately after shutdown) does not count unless later formalized. - If a merger or acquisition results in slots being transferred indirectly (e.g., via acquisition of Spirit assets), the acquiring airline counts. - If slots are returned to a general FAA pool and later redistributed, the eventual recipient airlines count. - If an airline ceases to exist or merges before resolution, its successor entity is credited. - Options are not mutually exclusive: multiple airlines may receive portions of the slot portfolio.