# How many tonnes of cocoa beans will the Ivory Coast produce in 2026?

Canonical URL: https://preseen.com/reports/0d986297-50c7-42a3-8b00-9a6eff58cbae/how-many-tonnes-of-cocoa-beans-will-the-ivory-coast-produce-in-2026
Markdown URL: https://preseen.com/reports/0d986297-50c7-42a3-8b00-9a6eff58cbae/markdown

## Forecast

Median forecast: 1,970,000; 80% interval: 1,790,000 to 2,150,000.

Generated: August 16, 2026 at 5:31 PM UTC
Forecast model: gpt-5.6-sol
Research model: gpt-5.6-sol

## Analysis

## TL;DR

I forecast **1,970,000 metric tonnes** of cocoa beans for Côte d’Ivoire in calendar year 2026. The distribution has a mean of 1,966,200 tonnes, a median of about 1,967,700 tonnes, an 80% interval of 1.78–2.15 million tonnes, and a 90% interval of 1.71–2.22 million tonnes. A strong first part of the year is offset by a weaker crop starting in September, leaving the annual result close to the recent 2-million-tonne norm.

## Context

The target is physical production from January 1 through December 31, 2026. That is not the period used by most cocoa reporting: the [ICCO quarterly bulletin](https://www.icco.org/icco-documentation/quarterly-bulletin-of-cocoa-statistics/) reports country production by cocoa year, while [FAOSTAT’s annual series](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production?country=~CIV) describes the amount produced “in the year.” Côte d’Ivoire’s own ANStat releases are the best current guide to that calendar-year concept. ([icco.org](https://www.icco.org/icco-documentation/quarterly-bulletin-of-cocoa-statistics/?utm_source=openai))

Côte d’Ivoire changed its commercial calendar on February 27, 2026: the main campaign now runs September–February and the intermediate campaign March–August ([Ivorian government notice](https://www.bilan.gouv.ci/actualite/19496)). I therefore model calendar 2026 as the January–August tail of the strong 2025/26 crop plus the September–December opening of the weaker 2026/27 main crop.

## Evidence

The historical backbone is the full calendar-year record below. Values for 1961–2024 are metric tonnes from [FAOSTAT, mirrored by Our World in Data and updated February 25, 2026](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production?country=~CIV); 2025 is the DGE/DPPSE figure in [ANStat’s December 2025 bulletin](https://www.anstat.ci/assets/publications/files/File_val_indicateur1775120634.pdf). The table is rounded to the nearest tonne. ([anstat.ci](https://www.anstat.ci/assets/publications/files/File_val_indicateur1775120634.pdf?utm_source=openai))

| Year | tonnes | Year | tonnes | Year | tonnes |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 1961 | 85,000 | 1983 | 411,081 | 2005 | 1,286,330 |
| 1962 | 110,000 | 1984 | 565,042 | 2006 | 1,408,854 |
| 1963 | 115,000 | 1985 | 555,115 | 2007 | 1,229,908 |
| 1964 | 139,069 | 1986 | 610,680 | 2008 | 1,382,441 |
| 1965 | 121,772 | 1987 | 664,031 | 2009 | 1,223,153 |
| 1966 | 149,662 | 1988 | 832,177 | 2010 | 1,301,347 |
| 1967 | 146,640 | 1989 | 780,521 | 2011 | 1,511,255 |
| 1968 | 144,476 | 1990 | 807,501 | 2012 | 1,485,882 |
| 1969 | 180,706 | 1991 | 764,708 | 2013 | 1,448,992 |
| 1970 | 179,156 | 1992 | 813,009 | 2014 | 1,637,778 |
| 1971 | 225,814 | 1993 | 803,799 | 2015 | 1,796,000 |
| 1972 | 185,445 | 1994 | 808,662 | 2016 | 1,634,000 |
| 1973 | 208,522 | 1995 | 1,120,000 | 2017 | 2,034,000 |
| 1974 | 241,511 | 1996 | 1,235,300 | 2018 | 2,113,189 |
| 1975 | 231,136 | 1997 | 1,119,110 | 2019 | 2,235,043 |
| 1976 | 232,330 | 1998 | 1,201,119 | 2020 | 2,200,000 |
| 1977 | 303,621 | 1999 | 1,163,025 | 2021 | 2,228,459 |
| 1978 | 318,381 | 2000 | 1,401,101 | 2022 | 2,358,991 |
| 1979 | 397,759 | 2001 | 1,212,428 | 2023 | 1,822,441 |
| 1980 | 417,222 | 2002 | 1,264,708 | 2024 | 1,890,442 |
| 1981 | 464,751 | 2003 | 1,351,546 | 2025 | 1,840,312 |
| 1982 | 360,445 | 2004 | 1,407,213 |  |  |

The modern regime matters more than the early decades. Over 2014–2025, the full sample is \(N=12\), the mean is 1.983 million tonnes, the standard deviation is 245,000 tonnes, and the standard deviation of annual changes is 233,000 tonnes. The forecast sits near that mean, but the historical volatility argues against a narrow interval.

The direct calendar data point strongly supports a rebound in early 2026. [ANStat’s December bulletin](https://www.anstat.ci/assets/publications/files/File_val_indicateur1775120634.pdf) reported 1,840,311.5 tonnes for calendar 2025, down 2.7% from 1,890,774.9 tonnes in 2024. Its [first-quarter 2026 bulletin, published July 24, 2026](https://anstat.ci/assets/publications/files/File_val_indicateur1784888695.pdf), reported 479,789.4 tonnes in January–March, up 43.6% from 334,221.3 tonnes a year earlier. These are tonnes of production from DGE/DPPSE, not export values or grindings. ([anstat.ci](https://www.anstat.ci/assets/publications/files/File_val_indicateur1775120634.pdf?utm_source=openai))

The nearly finished 2025/26 crop is the strongest anchor. On May 21, 2026, the head of the Coffee and Cocoa Council forecast 2.0–2.1 million tonnes for the season ending in September and reported more than 1.7 million tonnes of port arrivals by May 11 ([Reuters](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ivory-coast-expects-cocoa-output-to-rise-10-5-in-2025-26-season-regulator-says-ce7f5aded18af022)). Later supply reporting put the plausible full-season range around 1.98–2.2 million tonnes, though the upper end depends on disputed inland stocks ([Africa Business Insight](https://africabusinessinsight.com/ivory-coast-cocoa-surplus-far-larger/)). I center the January–August 2026 contribution from this crop near **0.99 million tonnes**, with an 80% range of roughly 0.88–1.10 million. ([marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ivory-coast-expects-cocoa-output-to-rise-10-5-in-2025-26-season-regulator-says-ce7f5aded18af022?utm_source=openai))

The new crop pulls the total back down. A July 12 Reuters survey of four pod counters and five major exporters put the September 2026–February 2027 main crop at 1.35–1.45 million tonnes, versus about 1.6 million in the preceding season, citing excessive rain, disease, flower and cherelle mortality, and weak crop treatment ([Business Recorder](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40429596)). A separate survey found 73% of farmers in three key regions had bought no fertilizer for the next two cycles ([Reuters syndication](https://www.stockopedia.com/share-prices/hanx-biopharmaceuticals-wuhan-co-HKG%3A3378/news/farmers-in-biggest-cocoa-producer-are-very-short-of-fertilizer-survey-says-019e6a20-3e58-76d8-a0ea-3eb7b36a860f/)), while interviews with 16 input retailers across eight cocoa basins found as much as 90% of fertilizer and crop-protection stock unsold ([Reuters](https://www.bworldonline.com/agribusiness/2026/05/18/750229/ivory-coast-cocoa-farmers-cut-spending-on-inputs-as-sales-slump-retailers-say/)). ([brecorder.com](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40429596?utm_source=openai))

Weather adds downside but does not justify treating the whole 2026/27 season as lost. NOAA’s August 13, 2026 discussion said El Niño was strengthening, with more than a 90% chance of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026/27 ([NOAA CPC](https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)). Heavy June rain and persistent cloud raised black-pod risk, while later drier spells helped soils drain; the effect on Côte d’Ivoire is not deterministic. Swollen-shoot disease is a slower structural drag: a 2026 regional response was adopted for 2026–2031, but tree removal and replanting cannot restore production within this forecast year ([FAO](https://www.fao.org/investment-centre/latest/news/detail/five-years-and-five-levers-to-roll-back-cocoa-swollen-shoot-disease-in-cote-d-ivoire-and-ghana/en)). 

My calendar conversion gives about 0.99 million tonnes from January–August and about 0.97 million tonnes from September–December. The second number equals roughly 68%–70% of the projected 1.35–1.45 million-tonne main crop; the share is high because calendar 2026 captures four front-loaded months of the new September–February campaign. I then add source-definition and revision uncertainty rather than treating those component estimates as exact.

The final distribution is a four-component, heavy-tailed mixture centered near 1.97 million tonnes. Its mean is 1,966,200 tonnes, standard deviation 157,700 tonnes, median about 1,967,700 tonnes, 10th percentile 1.780 million, and 90th percentile 2.150 million. It assigns 12% below 1.8 million tonnes, 39.6% above 2.0 million, and 6% above 2.2 million.

## What's non-obvious

**Port arrivals are not calendar-year production.** The government was still buying residual unsold cocoa in early 2026, and farmers protested over beans left from the main crop ([Reuters](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ivory-coast-will-send-officials-to-calm-protests-by-cocoa-farmers-source-says-ce7f5bded08ef52d)). Strong 2026 arrivals therefore contain some beans physically harvested in late 2025. Copying the arrival total into calendar 2026 would count part of the old crop in the wrong year. ([marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ivory-coast-will-send-officials-to-calm-protests-by-cocoa-farmers-source-says-ce7f5bded08ef52d?utm_source=openai))

The opposite shortcut also fails. Mapping “2026” to the full weaker 2026/27 crop throws away the strong January–August harvest and includes a 2027 mid-crop that the question excludes. The campaign change makes this more pronounced: September–December contains the front of the main crop, while much of the vulnerable mid-crop arrives only in 2027. This is why the literal calendar-year estimate stays near 1.97 million even though full-season 2026/27 forecasts are closer to 1.7–1.8 million.

## Uncertainties

- ANStat had published only first-quarter 2026 production by the August 16 forecast date; an official first-half release would sharply reduce uncertainty about the old-crop remainder ([ANStat](https://anstat.ci/assets/publications/files/File_val_indicateur1784888695.pdf)). ([anstat.ci](https://anstat.ci/publication-details/45f504c5c736897228d83a548d116a59c844bde6e7577a41d3ba296ab58a87616a2defd3d7bc99ab23cc177afb6c594a17d3dcace1672f133023138911c6c6e8ZQ9UQJVjIap53cVG_3MZiNexRfz-tOSx_mzV0o0Q360?utm_source=openai))
- I could not verify a complete official quarter-by-quarter 2025 production split. The January–August component is therefore inferred from ANStat’s annual and partial-year profiles, the CCC season forecast, and crop timing.
- The 1.35–1.45 million-tonne new-main-crop estimate comes from proprietary pod counters and exporters; the underlying farm sample and pod-count methodology are not public ([Reuters](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40429596)). ([brecorder.com](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40429596?utm_source=openai))
- Arrivals, inland stocks, production, and later statistical revisions do not use identical timing rules. ICCO’s detailed country tables are also partly subscription-only, so the eventual resolving figure may move after the harvest.
- A very strong El Niño raises tail risk, but it does not map mechanically to a fixed Côte d’Ivoire yield loss. Late-August sunshine, September rainfall, and confirmed black-pod incidence are the main unresolved agronomic variables ([NOAA CPC](https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml)).

## Sources

- Domain Expert Search (mcp)
  > Found 14 domain experts for 'Côte d’Ivoire cocoa production forecasting, agricultural statistics, crop seasonality and weather/disease risks':
- Owid (mcp)
  > Entity,Code,Year,Cocoa beans - Production (tonnes)
- [Cocoa bean production, 2024](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production) (openai)
- [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production.metadata.json) (tool)
- Domain Expert Research Task (mcp)
  > Job domain_expert_research_task_a128a89dc5 done after 307246ms.
- [africa-api.com](https://africa-api.com/data/cote-divoire/cocoa) (tool)
- [icco.org](https://www.icco.org/february-2026-quarterly-bulletin-of-cocoa-statistics) (tool)
- [Cocoa Statistics - May 2026 Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics](https://www.icco.org/may-2026-quarterly-bulletin-of-cocoa-statistics) (openai)
- [icco.org](https://www.icco.org/wp-content/uploads/Production_QBCS-LI-No.-1.pdf) (tool)
- [fas.usda.gov](https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/gain/2026/01/cote-divoire-cote-divoire-cocoa-beans-and-cocoa-products-semi-annual-mid-crop-my-2024-2025) (tool)
- [cnbcafrica.com](https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/ivory-coast-expects-cocoa-output-to-rise-10-5-in-2025-26-season-regulator-says) (tool)
- [agriculture.gouv.ci](https://agriculture.gouv.ci/uploads/publications/177581357524.pdf) (tool)
- [cpc.ncep.noaa.gov](https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml) (tool)
- [cpc.ncep.noaa.gov](https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths) (tool)
- [wmo.int](https://wmo.int/resources/publication-series/global-seasonal-climate-update/gscu-aso2026) (tool)
- [iri.columbia.edu](https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current) (tool)
- [trase.earth](https://trase.earth/insights/cote-d-ivoire-cocoa-exports-and-deforestation-2026) (tool)
- [cacao.gouv.ci](http://cacao.gouv.ci/index.php?rubrique=1.1.5) (tool)
- Claude Code (e2b)
  > Job coding_whiz_job_64c816eabf done after 773111ms.
- [Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics - International Cocoa Organization](https://www.icco.org/icco-documentation/quarterly-bulletin-of-cocoa-statistics) (openai)
- [TBSE - DECEMBRE 2025](https://www.anstat.ci/assets/publications/files/File_val_indicateur1775120634.pdf) (openai)
- [Ivory Coast expects cocoa output to rise 10.5% in 2025/26 season, regulator says | MarketScreener](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ivory-coast-expects-cocoa-output-to-rise-10-5-in-2025-26-season-regulator-says-ce7f5aded18af022) (openai)
- [Ivory Coast 2026/27 cocoa crop to drop amid excess rains, disease - Markets - Business Recorder](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40429596) (openai)
- [Ivory Coast will send officials to calm protests by cocoa farmers, source says | MarketScreener](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/ivory-coast-will-send-officials-to-calm-protests-by-cocoa-farmers-source-says-ce7f5bded08ef52d) (openai)
- [TABLEAU DE BORD SOCIO-ECONOMIQUE (TBSE) MARS 2026](https://anstat.ci/publication-details/45f504c5c736897228d83a548d116a59c844bde6e7577a41d3ba296ab58a87616a2defd3d7bc99ab23cc177afb6c594a17d3dcace1672f133023138911c6c6e8ZQ9UQJVjIap53cVG_3MZiNexRfz-tOSx_mzV0o0Q360) (openai)
- Usda fas (mcp)
  > PSD Commodities (0/0 results) matching 'cocoa'
- [errors.pydantic.dev](https://errors.pydantic.dev/2.13/v/int_parsing) (tool)
- News (mcp)
  > Found 10 merged articles (asknews: 10, perigon: 0, both: 0).
- [ghafla.co.ke](https://www.ghafla.co.ke/cocoa-farming-in-kenya-complete-2026-guide-to-planting-growing-and-profitability) (tool)
- [talkmarkets.com](https://talkmarkets.com/article/softs-report---friday-aug-14-1786734386) (tool)
- [marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/more-sun-needed-in-ivory-coast-cocoa-regions-to-boost-main-crop-farmers-say-ce7f50d9d88bf221) (tool)
- [cnbcafrica.com](https://cnbcafrica.com/2026/ivory-coast-2026-27-cocoa-crop-to-drop-more-than-10-amid-excess-rains-disease-counters-say) (tool)
- [chemanalyst.com](https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/ghana-expects-16-drop-in-cocoa-output-for-202627-season-43657) (tool)
- [barchart.com](https://www.barchart.com/story/news/3808831/cocoa-recovers-some-ground-after-tuesdays-sharp-drop-on-beneficial-west-african-weather) (tool)
- [ghanaweb.com](https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/business/Cocoa-prices-climb-as-supply-concerns-support-market-2043627) (tool)
- [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/ivory-coast-cocoa-farmers-say-heavy-rain-has-raised-fears-flooding-disease-2026-06-22) (tool)
- [marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/more-sun-needed-to-strengthen-ivory-coast-cocoa-crop-farmers-say-ce7f5edfd08ef324) (tool)
- [cnbcafrica.com](https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/ghanas-cocoa-production-is-expected-to-fall-16-next-season) (tool)
- [news.educarriere.ci](https://news.educarriere.ci/news-44165-boundiali-transformation-de-l-anacarde-un-secteur-pourvoyeur-d-emplois.html) (tool)
- [ch.zonebourse.com](https://ch.zonebourse.com/actualite-bourse/cote-d-ivoire-des-pluies-abondantes-soutiennent-la-recolte-intermediaire-de-cacao-ce7f5dd2d181f722) (tool)
- [sudouest.fr](https://www.sudouest.fr/vin/c-est-une-recolte-d-une-precocite-historique-a-cheval-blanc-comme-en-pessac-leognan-les-vendanges-de-blanc-ont-deja-commence-30258506.php) (tool)
- [zonebourse.com](https://www.zonebourse.com/actualite-bourse/cote-d-ivoire-des-pluies-abondantes-soutiennent-la-recolte-intermediaire-de-cacao-ce7f5dd2d181f722) (tool)
- [rfi.fr](https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20260812-c%C3%B4te-d-ivoire-fin-de-l-enl%C3%A8vement-des-stocks-r%C3%A9siduels-de-cacao-des-organisations-demandent-des-comptes) (tool)
- [ch.zonebourse.com](https://ch.zonebourse.com/actualite-bourse/cote-d-ivoire-l-intensification-des-pluies-favorise-la-recolte-intermediaire-de-cacao-selon-les-p-ce7f5addd98ff724) (tool)
- [beninwebtv.com](https://beninwebtv.com/cacao-lalliance-cote-divoire-ghana-veut-elargir-son-influence-en-afrique) (tool)
- [zonebourse.com](https://www.zonebourse.com/actualite-bourse/cote-d-ivoire-l-intensification-des-pluies-favorise-la-recolte-intermediaire-de-cacao-selon-les-p-ce7f5addd98ff724) (tool)
- [doc.afp.com](http://doc.afp.com/C4427KE) (tool)
- [ch.zonebourse.com](https://ch.zonebourse.com/actualite-bourse/cote-d-ivoire-de-legeres-precipitations-renforcent-la-recolte-intermediaire-de-cacao-ce7f5dd9d989f222) (tool)
- [guineematin.com](https://guineematin.com/2026/06/12/cacao-durable-la-guinee-pose-les-bases-dune-filiere-creatrice-de-richesse-demplois-et-dopportunites) (tool)
- [zonebourse.com](https://www.zonebourse.com/actualite-bourse/cote-d-ivoire-de-legeres-precipitations-renforcent-la-recolte-intermediaire-de-cacao-ce7f5dd9d989f222) (tool)

## Question Details

This question asks for the total annual production of cocoa beans in Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) for the 2026 calendar year, measured in metric tonnes. Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest cocoa producer, typically accounting for roughly 40–45% of global output, with annual production commonly in the range of about 2.0–2.3 million tonnes in recent years. (cropgpt.ai) Production has fluctuated significantly due to weather, disease, and market conditions: output fell to roughly 1.7–1.8 million tonnes in 2023/24, with forecasts for 2024/25 ranging around 1.9–2.2 million tonnes depending on conditions. (africa24tv.com) The question resolves based on the officially reported total cocoa bean production for Côte d’Ivoire during the 2026 calendar year (January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026), regardless of how the cocoa marketing season (which typically spans two calendar years) is defined.

### Resolution Criteria

The question will resolve to the numeric value (in metric tonnes) of total cocoa bean production in Côte d’Ivoire for the 2026 calendar year. Primary sources for resolution will be: - International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) annual statistics or reports - FAOSTAT (UN Food and Agriculture Organization) - World Bank or USDA Foreign Agricultural Service datasets If multiple sources provide figures, the ICCO figure will take precedence. If ICCO does not provide a calendar-year figure, then FAOSTAT will be used. If only crop-year (e.g., 2025/26 and 2026/27) data are available, the value will be derived by averaging the overlapping portions or using the closest reported estimate explicitly attributed to calendar year 2026 by a major source.

### Fine Print

- "Cocoa beans" refers to raw cocoa bean production, not processed cocoa products. - The geographic scope is the country of Côte d’Ivoire as internationally recognized. - If production is reported only in crop years and no reliable conversion to calendar year is available, the question may be resolved using the 2025/26 crop year as a proxy, provided this is clearly indicated by the resolving source. - If no authoritative data is available by June 30, 2029, the question will be annulled. - Revisions to production figures after initial publication are allowed up until the resolution date; the latest available revised figure from the preferred source takes precedence.