# Who will be exercising the powers of the Venezuelan presidency on 31 December 2026?

Canonical URL: https://preseen.com/reports/0cf801f0-0b2d-48d1-998b-eba0f3b1f019/who-will-be-exercising-the-powers-of-the-venezuelan-presidency-on-31-december-20
Markdown URL: https://preseen.com/reports/0cf801f0-0b2d-48d1-998b-eba0f3b1f019/markdown

## Forecast

Top outcome: Delcy Rodriguez at 91.7%. Other leading outcomes: Other Chavista (Jorge Rodriguez, Diosdado Cabello, or other PSUV figure): 4.9%; Maria Corina Machado: 1.7%; Other / power vacuum / civil war: 1.5%; Nicolas Maduro: 0.2%.

Generated: September 6, 2026 at 7:37 PM UTC
Forecast model: gpt-5.6-sol
Research model: gpt-5.6-sol

## Analysis

## TL;DR

Delcy Rodríguez has a **92%** chance of exercising Venezuela's presidential powers at the end of 2026. She controls the executive, has public military backing, and is the operating partner in Washington's new oil and stabilization policy. The main risk is an internal Chavista substitution, not a rapid Machado presidency or Maduro's return.

## Context

Rodríguez is the de facto incumbent. She is issuing policy, receiving foreign officials, directing energy agreements, and was still acting publicly as head of government on [September 5, 2026](https://efe.com/economia/2026-09-05/delcy-rodriguez-venezuela-petroleo/). By [March 10](https://efile.fara.gov/docs/7406-Informational-Materials-20260316-1.pdf), the U.S. State Department had told a federal court that it recognized her as Venezuela's sole head of state, and Treasury removed her from the sanctions list on [April 1](https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260401). ([efile.fara.gov](https://efile.fara.gov/docs/7406-Informational-Materials-20260316-1.pdf))

Her legal basis is weak but her practical position is strong. AP reported that she remained in office after the initial constitutional limit passed without a public Assembly extension vote, and the Chavista-controlled institutions did not force a succession ([AP, April 6](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-maduro-acting-president-delcy-rodriguez-trump-f33d6fe7407305b513940dfa4f69136c)). The question resolves on control, so that institutional acquiescence matters more than Maduro's residual title. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/f33d6fe7407305b513940dfa4f69136c))

## Evidence

The historical starting point favors persistence. I recomputed exact-date windows from [Archigos 4.1](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Archigos_4.1.pdf), which covers leader spells from 1875 through 2015, and [REIGN 2021_8](https://github.com/OEFDataScience/REIGN.github.io), which covers monthly leader and regime data from 1950 through August 2021. The table asks: after a leader has already survived about eight months, how often do they leave during the next 116 days? ([rochester.edu](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Archigos_4.1.pdf?utm_source=openai))

| Reference class | Sample | Exit in next 116 days | Survival |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| [All Archigos leaders](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Archigos_4.1.pdf) | [2,580](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Archigos_4.1.pdf) | [8.6% — 222 exits](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Archigos_4.1.pdf) | [91.4%](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Archigos_4.1.pdf) |
| [Irregular or foreign entry, Archigos](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Archigos_4.1.pdf) | [405](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Archigos_4.1.pdf) | [10.6% — 43 exits](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Archigos_4.1.pdf) | [89.4%](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Archigos_4.1.pdf) |
| [Successor after foreign removal, Archigos](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Archigos_4.1.pdf) | [302](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Archigos_4.1.pdf) | [9.9% — 30 exits](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Archigos_4.1.pdf) | [90.1%](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Archigos_4.1.pdf) |
| [Non-democratic regimes at 8–12 months, REIGN](https://github.com/OEFDataScience/REIGN.github.io) | [2,171 leader-months](https://github.com/OEFDataScience/REIGN.github.io) | [6.3%](https://github.com/OEFDataScience/REIGN.github.io) | [93.7%](https://github.com/OEFDataScience/REIGN.github.io) |
| [Provisional or foreign-occupied regimes, REIGN](https://github.com/OEFDataScience/REIGN.github.io) | [360 leader-months](https://github.com/OEFDataScience/REIGN.github.io) | [42.7%](https://github.com/OEFDataScience/REIGN.github.io) | [57.3%](https://github.com/OEFDataScience/REIGN.github.io) |

The last row is too pessimistic for this case. Rodríguez is not an outsider running a temporary administration built to dissolve. She is a long-serving regime insider who inherited an intact party, legislature, bureaucracy, intelligence system, and armed forces. Research on [foreign-imposed regime change](https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/why-foreign-imposed-regime-change-rarely-path-democracy) also finds that removing the leader while preserving the regime's institutions is the form least likely to create quick democracy; it raises violent-removal risk, but usually preserves more of the old order than public narratives imply. I therefore put most weight on the 89%–94% survival reference classes, while retaining a larger tail than for an ordinary autocrat.

The strongest current update is U.S. policy. The [August 31 White House fact sheet](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/08/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-announces-historic-oil-agreement-to-secure-american-energy-dominance-and-drive-venezuelas-economic-recovery/) describes a three-stage sequence of stabilization, reconstruction, and then democratic transition, tied to rights over [17 oil fields and about 65 billion barrels](https://apnews.com/article/7a4fa51f842e17b9b1d092fbeef2646a). These are announced concessions and projections, not realized production or investment. But they create a large near-term U.S. interest in a cooperative executive who can sign and enforce agreements. ([whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/08/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-announces-historic-oil-agreement-to-secure-american-energy-dominance-and-drive-venezuelas-economic-recovery/))

The coercive apparatus also points toward continuity. Rodríguez replaced defense minister Vladimir Padrino López with intelligence chief Gustavo González López on [March 18](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/venezuela-acting-president-replaces-longtime-defense-minister-4568984). [EFE reported on September 2](https://efe.com/mundo/2026-09-02/cupula-militar-venezuela-apoyo-acuerdo-estados-unidos/) that the high command had backed Rodríguez's U.S. oil agreement, and Diosdado Cabello defended the same agreement as consistent with Chavista policy in a [September 2 broadcast](https://vtv.com.ve/acuerdos-energeticos-eeuu-responden-lineamientos-constitucionales/). Public loyalty can hide plotting, but the freshest observable signals are coalition closure, not a split command. ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/venezuela-acting-president-replaces-longtime-defense-minister-4568984?utm_source=openai))

Machado's popularity is real, but the calendar is the binding constraint. The first formal dialogue round ran from [August 6 to August 12](https://efe.com/mundo/2026-08-29/oposicion-chavismo-dialogo-venezuela/) and produced agreements on Supreme Court renewal and disaster assets, not a presidential election date; Machado and Edmundo González were outside the talks. On [September 6](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chris-wright-energy-secretary-face-the-nation-09-06-2026/), Energy Secretary Chris Wright said elections would come only after voter-roll, rule-of-law, and political-prisoner work, then gave no timeline. The current [IFES election calendar](https://www.electionguide.org/elections/) lists no Venezuelan presidential vote before the deadline. ([efe.com](https://efe.com/mundo/2026-08-29/oposicion-chavismo-dialogo-venezuela/))

A Machado outcome now needs a discontinuous chain: safe return, restored eligibility, a dated electoral or transitional agreement, acceptance by the armed forces, and a swearing-in before the deadline. The [July AtlasIntel survey](https://atlasintel.org/poll/latam-pulse-venezuela-july-2026-2026-08-06) had 1,110 respondents and a stated ±3-point margin; a [public summary](https://dehablahispana.com/venezuela-encuesta-rodriguez-machado/) reported Machado at 57.4% and Rodríguez at 17.7% in a hypothetical race. That is useful evidence about a future vote. It is weak evidence about who commands ministries and guns over the next four months. ([atlasintel.org](https://atlasintel.org/poll/latam-pulse-venezuela-july-2026-2026-08-06))

Maduro's path is narrower. He and Cilia Flores remained in U.S. custody when they sought dismissal on immunity grounds on [September 2](https://apnews.com/article/000ee40342a3ace42d8fac3ea19b102e); oral argument is set for [November 17](https://apnews.com/article/000ee40342a3ace42d8fac3ea19b102e), and trial for [June 1, 2027](https://apnews.com/article/000ee40342a3ace42d8fac3ea19b102e). Even dismissal would not restore his physical command in Caracas. In the [Archigos](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Archigos_4.1.pdf) data, none of the 72 leaders removed by foreign action returned within four months. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/000ee40342a3ace42d8fac3ea19b102e?utm_source=openai))

The downside tail is still real. ACLED recorded more than [1,400 protests in the first half of 2026, more than twice the full-2025 count](https://acleddata.com/expert-comment/how-will-venezuelas-earthquakes-affect-delcy-rodriguezs-government), and AP documented public criticism inside Chavismo of Rodríguez's U.S. turn ([AP, June 1](https://apnews.com/article/a8d96666a51289f0c88efcd89a9413bc)). The oil deal can fund the coalition, but it can also create nationalist backlash. That is why another Chavista gets 5%, well above Maduro, and why I do not move Rodríguez to the mid-90s. ([acleddata.com](https://acleddata.com/expert-comment/how-will-venezuelas-earthquakes-affect-delcy-rodriguezs-government))

For the final calculation, I use a competing-risks model. I set the four-month displacement probability at 8.3%, below the [10.6% Archigos irregular-or-foreign-entry rate](https://www.rochester.edu/college/faculty/hgoemans/Archigos_4.1.pdf) because elections are unscheduled and current patron and military signals favor continuity, but above the [3.0% REIGN dominant-party rate](https://github.com/OEFDataScience/REIGN.github.io) because the accession followed foreign force and the coalition remains opaque. The equivalent annualized hazard is 0.273. With \(t=116.4/365.24\) years,

$$
P(\text{Delcy remains})=e^{-0.273t}=0.9167.
$$

I allocate the remaining 8% mainly to an insider replacement. The client-facing rounded distribution is Rodríguez 92%, another Chavista 5%, Machado 2%, other or fragmented authority 2%, and Maduro below 1%.

## What's non-obvious

**The expired constitutional clock helps the continuity forecast.** It looks like a reason Rodríguez must leave. In practice, she crossed the first deadline without a public extension and kept the bureaucracy, courts, legislature, and military operating under her authority ([AP, April 6](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-maduro-acting-president-delcy-rodriguez-trump-f33d6fe7407305b513940dfa4f69136c)). That is revealed evidence that the clock is not self-enforcing and that formal irregularity is not currently breaking the coalition. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/f33d6fe7407305b513940dfa4f69136c))

The client description also conflates two prediction markets. After making the independent estimate above, I checked the [matching de facto-power contract](https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-de-facto-leader-end-of-2026?marketSlug=will-delcy-rodrguez-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026&outcomeIndex=1): it showed Rodríguez at 94% with about $389,000 of total volume, not tens of millions. I leave my estimate lower because the market is thin across many successor names and does not cleanly aggregate the full other-Chavista and power-vacuum tails in this question. ([polymarket.com](https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-de-facto-leader-end-of-2026?marketSlug=will-delcy-rodrguez-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026&outcomeIndex=1))

## Uncertainties

- Private military loyalty is the largest gap. Public endorsements by the [high command](https://efe.com/mundo/2026-09-02/cupula-militar-venezuela-apoyo-acuerdo-estados-unidos/) and [Cabello](https://vtv.com.ve/acuerdos-energeticos-eeuu-responden-lineamientos-constitucionales/) do not reveal battalion-level loyalties, covert bargaining, or whether González López would back Rodríguez in a real split. ([efe.com](https://efe.com/mundo/2026-09-02/cupula-militar-venezuela-apoyo-acuerdo-estados-unidos/))
- I found no authoritative public text that cleanly regularizes Rodríguez's position after the ordinary temporary-absence limits. The [constitutional dispute](https://accesoalajusticia.org/que-ocurre-con-la-encargaduria-presidencial/) could become a pretext for an elite deal even though it has not yet constrained her.
- The oil agreement's terms conflict. Caracas describes a [25-year project](https://efe.com/economia/2026-08-30/delcy-rodriguez-acuerdo-petroleo-estados-unidos-vigencia/), while Washington describes [100-year concessions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/08/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-announces-historic-oil-agreement-to-secure-american-energy-dominance-and-drive-venezuelas-economic-recovery/). Full contracts, actual capital disbursements, and reliable private polling of officers and PSUV elites would narrow the forecast most. ([whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/08/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-announces-historic-oil-agreement-to-secure-american-energy-dominance-and-drive-venezuelas-economic-recovery/))

## Sources

- Domain Expert Search (mcp)
  > Found 14 domain experts for 'Venezuela political transition, Chavista elite politics, military loyalty, United States policy, and presidential succession forecasting through December 2026':
- Electionguide (mcp)
  > Upcoming Elections Worldwide (53 elections)
- Acled (mcp)
  > {
- Views (mcp)
  > ViEWS Conflict Forecasts: Venezuela (VEN)
- Domain Expert Research Task (mcp)
  > Job domain_expert_research_task_2b9b476761 done after 388045ms.
- [primicias.ec](https://www.primicias.ec/internacional/delcy-rodriguez-presidenta-venezuela-denuncia-sabotaje-electricidad-acuerdo-petroleo-estados-unidos-131905) (tool)
- [wtop.com](https://wtop.com/world/2026/04/venezuelas-delcy-rodriguez-remains-acting-president-after-her-initial-90-day-appointment-expired) (tool)
- [congress.gov](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12618/IN12618.5.pdf) (tool)
- [mppre.gob.ve](https://mppre.gob.ve/index.php/publicacion/6535-0) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-interim-president-rodriguez-maduro-chavez-b352b5af17deb0ab78684b8398045179) (tool)
- [mppre.gob.ve](https://mppre.gob.ve/index.php/publicacion/7986) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/5715aae8fdb29dab1b5e71c14c2306a0) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/1c509be8d665f16ee65a80a513463016) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/turkey-venezuela-delcy-rodriguez-visits-1bfc2b2d1ebb9a47aebbfcbc3b646af0) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/1bfc2b2d1ebb9a47aebbfcbc3b646af0) (tool)
- [efe.com](https://efe.com/mundo/2026-01-29/fuerza-armada-venezuela-reconocimiento-delcy-rodriguez-comandante-jefe) (tool)
- [Venezuela’s acting president replaces long-time defense minister with intelligence head By Reuters](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/venezuela-acting-president-replaces-longtime-defense-minister-4568984) (openai)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-delcy-defense-minister-vladimir-padrino-us-maduro-0710f93bbc6a9e2d5fac17a12257b242) (tool)
- [consuladobarcelona.gob.ve](https://consuladobarcelona.gob.ve/webalterna/presidenta-e-delcy-rodriguez-designa-y-juramenta-al-nuevo-alto-mando-militar) (tool)
- [correodelorinoco.gob.ve](https://www.correodelorinoco.gob.ve/presidenta-delcy-rodriguez-sostuvo-una-reunion-estrategica-con-el-alto-mando-militar) (tool)
- [caracaschronicles.com](https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2026/03/24/the-rise-of-delcys-chief-enforcer) (tool)
- [elpais.com](https://elpais.com/america/2026-09-03/los-acuerdos-petroleros-de-estados-unidos-y-venezuela-opacos-y-millonarios.html) (tool)
- [Los diálogos con el chavismo fracturan a la oposición venezolana](https://elpais.com/america/2026-08-31/los-dialogos-con-el-chavismo-fracturan-a-la-oposicion-venezolana.html) (openai)
- [seattlepi.com](https://www.seattlepi.com/news/venezuela-s-ruling-party-unity-cracks-as-delcy-a22285524) (tool)
- [efe.com](https://efe.com/mundo/2026-09-03/corina-machado-pide-calendario-electoral-venezuela) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-delcy-rodriguez-sanctions-maduro-d819e64fcdefa132c5b06c3ce0a81f88) (tool)
- [Ex-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and wife seek to end drug charges case on immunity grounds](https://apnews.com/article/000ee40342a3ace42d8fac3ea19b102e) (openai)
- [digitallibrary.un.org](https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/4100817/files/S_PV.10085-EN.pdf) (tool)
- [un.org](https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/highlight/2026-07-08.html) (tool)
- [amnesty.org](https://www.amnesty.org/zh-hans/documents/amr53/1369/2026/ru) (tool)
- [ley.com.ve](https://www.ley.com.ve/constitucion/constitucion-de-la-republica-bolivariana-de-venezuela-articulo-266) (tool)
- [constituteproject.org](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Venezuela_2009.pdf) (tool)
- [en.wikisource.org](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Page%3AConstitution_of_the_Bolivarian_republic_of_Venezuela.djvu/91) (tool)
- [en.wikisource.org](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Constitution_of_the_Bolivarian_Republic_of_Venezuela/Title_5) (tool)
- [en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vice_President_of_Venezuela) (tool)
- [en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Assembly_of_Venezuela) (tool)
- [constituteproject.org](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Venezuela_2009) (tool)
- [ley.com.ve](https://www.ley.com.ve/constitucion/constitucion-de-la-republica-bolivariana-de-venezuela-articulo-296) (tool)
- [govinfo.gov](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CREC-2026-08-04/pdf/CREC-2026-08-04-pt1-PgS4433.pdf) (tool)
- [marketscreener.com](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Venezuela-opposition-candidate-Machado-barred-from-holding-office-gov-t-44244460) (tool)
- [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelas-supreme-court-orders-delcy-rodriguez-become-interim-president-2026-01-04) (tool)
- [apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/097c0eab303b9b461419868c15fddecb) (tool)
- [reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-backed-venezuela-talks-begin-without-opposition-leader-machado-2026-07-31) (tool)
- [france24.com](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260813-venezuela-govt-opposition-wrap-up-round-of-post-maduro-talks) (tool)
- [ciudadccs.info](https://ciudadccs.info/publicacion/49524-an-sanciona-por-unanimidad-la-reforma-parcial-de-la-ley-del-tsj) (tool)
- [efe.com](https://efe.com/mundo/2026-04-22/venezuela-tribunal-supremo) (tool)
- [refworld.org](https://www.refworld.org/sites/default/files/attachments/5485a9064.pdf) (tool)
- [investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/us-venezuela-agree-to-reestablish-diplomatic-and-consular-relations-4545728) (tool)
- [efe.com](https://efe.com/mundo/2026-03-12/gobierno-trump-justicia-reconocimiento-oficial-delcy-rodriguez-venezuela) (tool)
- [ofac.treasury.gov](https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260401) (tool)

## Question Details

On 3 January 2026 a US military operation captured Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores in Caracas and extradited them to the United States, where Maduro is now jailed in New York awaiting trial. Two days later, Venezuela's Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) declared Maduro's situation a 'temporary absence' and swore in Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as acting president, with a constitutional 90-day cap that the National Assembly could extend to six months by formal vote. The 90-day deadline expired on 4 April 2026 without a public Assembly extension vote, but Rodriguez has remained in office, and the US State Department has formally recognised her as Venezuela's 'sole Head of State'.\n\nRodriguez has moved to consolidate power: in March 2026 she ousted longtime Defence Minister Gen. Vladimir Padrino Lopez and replaced him with intelligence chief Gen. Gustavo Gonzalez Lopez. The Trump administration lifted Treasury sanctions on her personally on 1 April 2026 and is openly backing her over opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. Trump told reporters Machado 'didn't have the support needed to run the country in the short term' — a position reportedly driven by a CIA assessment and advice from Secretary Rubio that backing Machado now would destabilise the country. Machado, who polls at ~67% support to Rodriguez's ~25%, has said she expects to return to Venezuela before year-end and is pressing Washington for a fast election timetable. The opposition coalition has unified behind her as its presidential candidate. No election date has been announced.\n\nThe original prompt asked whether Rodriguez 'or successor in role' would remain in power. The cleanest operationalisation is: which of the named candidates will be the de facto exerciser of Venezuelan presidential powers on 31 December 2026? This is the same question Polymarket's $80M+ market is resolving, and it captures the multiple plausible scenarios — Rodriguez consolidating, a Maduro-loyalist successor (Jorge Rodriguez, Cabello) replacing her, an opposition transition to Machado, a US-installed transitional figure, or a power vacuum.

### Resolution Criteria

Resolves to whichever option below describes the person who is exercising the substantive powers of the Venezuelan head of state at 23:59 ET on 31 December 2026, as determined by (1) which person is publicly recognised in that role by the US State Department (https://www.state.gov/) and the Venezuelan Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ), (2) confirmatory wire-service reporting from Reuters and AP describing that person as 'president', 'acting president', or 'interim president' of Venezuela, and (3) which person is in fact issuing executive decrees, commanding the FANB, and conducting head-of-state diplomacy. If those signals diverge, resolution prefers the de facto exerciser of executive power inside Venezuela (criterion 3) over formal recognition.\n\nOptions:\n- 'Delcy Rodriguez' — resolves YES if the current acting president is still in that role on 31 Dec 2026, regardless of whether her title has changed (e.g., 'president', 'transitional president').\n- 'Nicolas Maduro' — resolves YES if Maduro is somehow returned to office (e.g., released from US custody and reinstated, recognised by the TSJ as president-in-exile while Rodriguez is treated as a placeholder, or restored after a deal). Note: per Polymarket's framing, simply being the 'legally absent' officeholder while Rodriguez exercises power resolves to 'Delcy Rodriguez', not Maduro — the question is who actually exercises the powers.\n- 'Maria Corina Machado' — resolves YES if Machado is sworn in as president (whether by election, transitional accord, or US-brokered installation).\n- 'Other Chavista (Jorge Rodriguez, Diosdado Cabello, or other PSUV figure)' — resolves YES if Delcy Rodriguez is replaced by another Maduro-era PSUV figure.\n- 'Other / power vacuum / civil war' — resolves YES if no single person is exercising recognised presidential powers, or if the answer is someone not in the above buckets (e.g., a US-appointed administrator, a junta, an opposition figure other than Machado, an election produces a different winner).\n\nPrimary resolution sources: US State Department press releases (https://www.state.gov/), TSJ rulings (http://historico.tsj.gob.ve/), Reuters Venezuela coverage (https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela/), AP, and the official Presidencia de Venezuela channel for executive decrees. Polymarket's 'Venezuela leader end of 2026' market may be referenced as a sanity check but is not the resolution authority.

### Fine Print

The question is about WHO IS EXERCISING POWER, not who holds the legal title. If Maduro remains technically the 'legal' officeholder (as the TSJ initially framed) but Rodriguez or another person is actually running the country at year-end, this resolves to whoever is exercising power. If Rodriguez's formal title changes (e.g., from 'acting' to 'transitional' or 'interim' or 'president'), she still counts as 'Delcy Rodriguez'. If a transitional government is announced but Rodriguez heads it, that is still 'Delcy Rodriguez'. If elections are held by 31 Dec 2026 and a winner is sworn in before that date, the new sworn-in president resolves the question; if a winner is declared but not yet sworn in, the still-serving incumbent resolves it. If Rodriguez is killed, incapacitated, or formally deposed and replaced by someone outside the named buckets (e.g., the Defence Minister Gen. Gustavo Gonzalez Lopez), resolve to 'Other Chavista...' if the replacement is a Chavismo-aligned figure, or 'Other / power vacuum / civil war' otherwise. A US military occupation administering the country directly (with no Venezuelan figure in charge) resolves to 'Other / power vacuum / civil war'. Source ambiguity at the deadline: defer to Reuters and AP wire reporting in the 24 hours either side of 23:59 ET on 31 Dec 2026.