# Preseen > AI forecasting technology with public results — ranked #1 on Metaculus benchmarks and bot tournaments. Each forecast report has a clean-markdown alternate at `/reports//markdown`. Reports are append-only and link back to their canonical page and primary sources. ## Reports - [Will Bolivian president Rodrigo Paz Pereira remain in power through the end of 2026?](https://preseen.com/reports/ddd8a5df-5807-442e-8d50-6059b4a54c5e/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/ddd8a5df-5807-442e-8d50-6059b4a54c5e/will-bolivian-president-rodrigo-paz-pereira-remain-in-power-through-the-end-of-2 - [Will Anthropic announce Claude has solved Navier-Stokes before July 2027?](https://preseen.com/reports/4f09b47d-863e-4fb0-9874-a8905614797e/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/4f09b47d-863e-4fb0-9874-a8905614797e/will-anthropic-announce-claude-has-solved-navier-stokes-before-july-2027 - [Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 US Senate election in Michigan?](https://preseen.com/reports/40dff73b-3854-44e5-a70a-c49ab8327605/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/40dff73b-3854-44e5-a70a-c49ab8327605/will-abdul-el-sayed-win-the-2026-us-senate-election-in-michigan - [Will Taylor Swift announce that she's having a baby before 2028?](https://preseen.com/reports/702d7f7b-9c8a-4dfb-a060-48c80318c96a/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/702d7f7b-9c8a-4dfb-a060-48c80318c96a/will-taylor-swift-announce-that-she-s-having-a-baby-before-2028 - [Will a Chinese model hold the AA Intelligence Index and the Vals Index simultaneously at any point between now and the end of 2028?](https://preseen.com/reports/2e27aed3-2b6e-46bf-b6c8-eb470e290d07/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/2e27aed3-2b6e-46bf-b6c8-eb470e290d07/will-a-chinese-model-hold-the-aa-intelligence-index-and-the-vals-index-simultane - [Will NASDAQ fall at least 65% from its historical peak at any time before the end of 2030?](https://preseen.com/reports/3e14a334-715f-4589-8575-b50c6f2aad27/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/3e14a334-715f-4589-8575-b50c6f2aad27/will-nasdaq-fall-at-least-65-from-its-historical-peak-at-any-time-before-the-end - [Will AI be the direct cause of the equivalent of $10 billion of damages in a single incident before 2040?](https://preseen.com/reports/cdc3ae41-ba7c-4e28-9d44-6959c078ad37/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/cdc3ae41-ba7c-4e28-9d44-6959c078ad37/will-ai-be-the-direct-cause-of-the-equivalent-of-10-billion-of-damages-in-a-sing - [Who will be exercising the powers of the Venezuelan presidency on 31 December 2026?](https://preseen.com/reports/7faee5d7-8d31-45b3-8750-5aa2bce9b630/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/7faee5d7-8d31-45b3-8750-5aa2bce9b630/who-will-be-exercising-the-powers-of-the-venezuelan-presidency-on-31-december-20 - [How many tonnes of cocoa beans will the Ivory Coast produce in 2026?](https://preseen.com/reports/7f44284d-62eb-47ad-a4cb-9fab0e921731/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/7f44284d-62eb-47ad-a4cb-9fab0e921731/how-many-tonnes-of-cocoa-beans-will-the-ivory-coast-produce-in-2026 - [How many of the negotiating chapters required to join the EU will Montenegro have closed at the end of 2026?](https://preseen.com/reports/bb500f6d-7850-4711-8112-ac961a049db6/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/bb500f6d-7850-4711-8112-ac961a049db6/how-many-of-the-negotiating-chapters-required-to-join-the-eu-will-montenegro-hav - [What percentage of US adults will claim to be currently taking GLP-1 drugs for weight loss in 2030?](https://preseen.com/reports/60cdb97a-d3ee-4175-8d3c-39f0cfde0497/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/60cdb97a-d3ee-4175-8d3c-39f0cfde0497/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-claim-to-be-currently-taking-glp-1-drugs-for-w - [Will any UFO sightings turn out to actually be intelligent, extraterrestrial life visiting earth?](https://preseen.com/reports/6d6f6a49-2c5d-47eb-8f97-f2064b4fdf8c/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/6d6f6a49-2c5d-47eb-8f97-f2064b4fdf8c/will-any-ufo-sightings-turn-out-to-actually-be-intelligent-extraterrestrial-life - [What percent of webpages will be significantly written or edited by AI in 2030?](https://preseen.com/reports/c93c08ff-9be7-410a-9428-996265942604/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/c93c08ff-9be7-410a-9428-996265942604/what-percent-of-webpages-will-be-significantly-written-or-edited-by-ai-in-2030 - [Who will win the Democratic nomination for President in 2028?](https://preseen.com/reports/a13299b7-ba92-431e-83c3-8516d0fce52f/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/a13299b7-ba92-431e-83c3-8516d0fce52f/who-will-win-the-democratic-nomination-for-president-in-2028 - [When will the construction of Jeddah Tower be complete?](https://preseen.com/reports/e0de96ab-e837-470d-91a1-5d46cbb4a8d7/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/e0de96ab-e837-470d-91a1-5d46cbb4a8d7/when-will-the-construction-of-jeddah-tower-be-complete - [How will the Gaza Strip be governed on January 1, 2030?](https://preseen.com/reports/d857a043-9e9c-4a4d-a64e-630d0ee79f03/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/d857a043-9e9c-4a4d-a64e-630d0ee79f03/how-will-the-gaza-strip-be-governed-on-january-1-2030 - [Will the Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA finals?](https://preseen.com/reports/de48bb9a-8767-4c90-9d84-7704088060c5/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/de48bb9a-8767-4c90-9d84-7704088060c5/will-the-golden-state-valkyries-win-the-2026-wnba-finals - [When will the first humans successfully land on Mars?](https://preseen.com/reports/eb67bea7-2143-4683-b9df-a29011202858/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/eb67bea7-2143-4683-b9df-a29011202858/when-will-the-first-humans-successfully-land-on-mars - [How much in total monetary relief will Ticketmaster and Live Nation ultimately be required to pay as a result of the FTC and seven states' ticket-pricing and broker-limit lawsuit?](https://preseen.com/reports/cffd519b-8189-4d25-b932-ba8bdd4cac1e/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/cffd519b-8189-4d25-b932-ba8bdd4cac1e/how-much-in-total-monetary-relief-will-ticketmaster-and-live-nation-ultimately-b - [Which plan from the AI 2040 report will most closely resemble the actual outcome?](https://preseen.com/reports/7d187a47-d766-4a21-b29a-db6551d9d3b9/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/7d187a47-d766-4a21-b29a-db6551d9d3b9/which-plan-from-the-ai-2040-report-will-most-closely-resemble-the-actual-outcome - [Conditional on Canada becoming an associate member of the EU by December 31, 2028, will annual direct investment flows from EU investors into Canada exceed CAD 40 billion in any calendar year by 2032?](https://preseen.com/reports/5220357c-3e58-4f8f-b3da-c9d267b60400/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/5220357c-3e58-4f8f-b3da-c9d267b60400/conditional-on-canada-becoming-an-associate-member-of-the-eu-by-december-31-2028 - [Conditional on Canada becoming an associate member of the EU by December 31, 2028, will the EU share of Canada's total goods exports exceed 10% in any calendar year by 2032?](https://preseen.com/reports/c607c201-84ad-48fd-9e44-b0db12343ee3/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/c607c201-84ad-48fd-9e44-b0db12343ee3/conditional-on-canada-becoming-an-associate-member-of-the-eu-by-december-31-2028 - [Will Canada and the European Union formally agree to a framework explicitly establishing Canada as an associate member of the EU by December 31, 2028?](https://preseen.com/reports/58a9bcc6-2a7a-4560-9aac-4cce1da177ff/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/58a9bcc6-2a7a-4560-9aac-4cce1da177ff/will-canada-and-the-european-union-formally-agree-to-a-framework-explicitly-esta - [By December 31, 2030, which area will represent the deepest new Canada-EU integration beyond arrangements already in force on September 22, 2026?](https://preseen.com/reports/d65c7113-197b-418c-b356-dfdfefe6353b/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/d65c7113-197b-418c-b356-dfdfefe6353b/by-december-31-2030-which-area-will-represent-the-deepest-new-canada-eu-integrat - [Will Canada and the European Union sign a Digital Trade Agreement by December 31, 2027?](https://preseen.com/reports/934ad8d6-0730-41fa-b241-78b21f1e00ad/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/934ad8d6-0730-41fa-b241-78b21f1e00ad/will-canada-and-the-european-union-sign-a-digital-trade-agreement-by-december-31 - [Will TotalEnergies or Mozambique LNG publicly announce a new declaration of force majeure for the Mozambique LNG project at Afungi, explicitly citing security conditions in Cabo Delgado as a material reason, between September 23, 2026 and June 30, 2027, inclusive UTC?](https://preseen.com/reports/94123db8-5590-440b-8de3-429ea8925f09/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/94123db8-5590-440b-8de3-429ea8925f09/will-totalenergies-or-mozambique-lng-publicly-announce-a-new-declaration-of-forc - [Will FDA approve mitapivat for sickle-cell disease by Nov. 1?](https://preseen.com/reports/36a53d22-0b62-489e-8a9a-2ca4cd0caea8/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/36a53d22-0b62-489e-8a9a-2ca4cd0caea8/will-fda-approve-mitapivat-for-sickle-cell-disease-by-nov-1 - [How many fewer cancer deaths will occur within 10 years per 100,000 people offered annual Galleri?](https://preseen.com/reports/a3d4ad1d-b098-44d0-82fd-1b62d7c16ace/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/a3d4ad1d-b098-44d0-82fd-1b62d7c16ace/how-many-fewer-cancer-deaths-will-occur-within-10-years-per-100-000-people-offer - [Among 100,000 U.S. adults age 50–79 receiving annual Galleri + usual screening for three years, how many fewer Stage IV cancers will be diagnosed within four years versus usual screening alone?](https://preseen.com/reports/13cbac10-7cdd-4ee5-bc92-90afa8a6aca5/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/13cbac10-7cdd-4ee5-bc92-90afa8a6aca5/among-100-000-u-s-adults-age-50-79-receiving-annual-galleri-usual-screening-for - [How many people per 100,000 screened will undergo an invasive diagnostic procedure because of a false-positive Galleri result?](https://preseen.com/reports/4c2aa73c-678a-4ed8-8204-e08bd5833fb1/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/4c2aa73c-678a-4ed8-8204-e08bd5833fb1/how-many-people-per-100-000-screened-will-undergo-an-invasive-diagnostic-procedu - [Will FDA grant PMA approval to GRAIL's Galleri multi-cancer early detection test by December 31, 2026?](https://preseen.com/reports/06a99139-3a03-4504-853f-9b161232e963/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/06a99139-3a03-4504-853f-9b161232e963/will-fda-grant-pma-approval-to-grail-s-galleri-multi-cancer-early-detection-test - [Will boeing accelerate their production rate of 737 max to 52 per month or greater by end of q1 2027](https://preseen.com/reports/23d9e28b-6565-459d-b406-3fae2bc87e09/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/23d9e28b-6565-459d-b406-3fae2bc87e09/will-boeing-accelerate-their-production-rate-of-737-max-to-52-per-month-or-great - [If there is a run-off in the coming French presidential election who will the two candidates be?](https://preseen.com/reports/db5af57b-23b1-4616-ae2c-ec69cad0992e/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/db5af57b-23b1-4616-ae2c-ec69cad0992e/if-there-is-a-run-off-in-the-coming-french-presidential-election-who-will-the-tw - [Will AfD win a plurality of seats in the next German federal election?](https://preseen.com/reports/3c872a86-5c1a-47e6-b0bc-692608adfbd0/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/3c872a86-5c1a-47e6-b0bc-692608adfbd0/will-afd-win-a-plurality-of-seats-in-the-next-german-federal-election - [When will a quantum computer be capable of operating with over 1,000 fully error-corrected logical qubits?](https://preseen.com/reports/24b943a2-4cb6-4379-8b49-e291f1c20e69/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/24b943a2-4cb6-4379-8b49-e291f1c20e69/when-will-a-quantum-computer-be-capable-of-operating-with-over-1-000-fully-error - [Which banana cultivar will be the most widely cultivated in 2050?](https://preseen.com/reports/884e4932-3d6e-4c2a-9898-86d9c1698e5e/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/884e4932-3d6e-4c2a-9898-86d9c1698e5e/which-banana-cultivar-will-be-the-most-widely-cultivated-in-2050 - [Will the 2026 Farm Bill be enacted with provisions preempting state livestock production standards for out-of-state products by Jan 3, 2027?](https://preseen.com/reports/ec7006f0-5883-453c-a323-708d26c19617/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/ec7006f0-5883-453c-a323-708d26c19617/will-the-2026-farm-bill-be-enacted-with-provisions-preempting-state-livestock-pr - [What will period life expectancy be in the US in 2050?](https://preseen.com/reports/87723a11-f75b-4256-99e7-c78c0ace1b67/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/87723a11-f75b-4256-99e7-c78c0ace1b67/what-will-period-life-expectancy-be-in-the-us-in-2050 - [Will a material discovered primarily by AI systems be deployed in a commercially sold battery, solar cell, or catalyst product before 2031?](https://preseen.com/reports/57d4d4df-7f6d-4274-83e0-861326dd22e5/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/57d4d4df-7f6d-4274-83e0-861326dd22e5/will-a-material-discovered-primarily-by-ai-systems-be-deployed-in-a-commercially - [When will 50% of all new cars sold in the US be fully autonomous and qualified to drive on all public roads?](https://preseen.com/reports/dc0ac1ab-a064-4e12-9432-1b0010027e4c/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/dc0ac1ab-a064-4e12-9432-1b0010027e4c/when-will-50-of-all-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous-and-qualified-to - [Will any US state legally authorize autonomous AI diagnosis and prescription for primary care \(no human sign-off per encounter\) before 2031?](https://preseen.com/reports/8071d3f8-748a-405c-8c61-980d5d7076f6/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/8071d3f8-748a-405c-8c61-980d5d7076f6/will-any-us-state-legally-authorize-autonomous-ai-diagnosis-and-prescription-for - [What will the average unemployment rate for recent college graduates in the US be in 2035?](https://preseen.com/reports/22f70d38-6262-4dc7-b490-136066c25b05/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/22f70d38-6262-4dc7-b490-136066c25b05/what-will-the-average-unemployment-rate-for-recent-college-graduates-in-the-us-b - [How many humanoid robots will there be worldwide at the end of 2035?](https://preseen.com/reports/a8eac514-80e1-4b1b-a292-23c50b7dedab/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/a8eac514-80e1-4b1b-a292-23c50b7dedab/how-many-humanoid-robots-will-there-be-worldwide-at-the-end-of-2035 - [Will the top 1% own more than 50% of personal wealth in the US before 2040?](https://preseen.com/reports/65ae4b1d-7d92-457a-bd8c-7819558ed215/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/65ae4b1d-7d92-457a-bd8c-7819558ed215/will-the-top-1-own-more-than-50-of-personal-wealth-in-the-us-before-2040 - [Will a G20 country implement a national UBI program before 2040?](https://preseen.com/reports/1cb99c3e-4970-4668-a774-fc7c206d852f/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/1cb99c3e-4970-4668-a774-fc7c206d852f/will-a-g20-country-implement-a-national-ubi-program-before-2040 - [Will real global GDP grow 10% or more over any four quarter period before the end of 2035?](https://preseen.com/reports/b75a0edd-4a0a-4e8d-8912-9e7e6a6629b3/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/b75a0edd-4a0a-4e8d-8912-9e7e6a6629b3/will-real-global-gdp-grow-10-or-more-over-any-four-quarter-period-before-the-end - [Will US nonfarm labor productivity grow by more than 10% in any year through 2035?](https://preseen.com/reports/305194e8-845e-4fa3-9f96-64246ceaaeb5/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/305194e8-845e-4fa3-9f96-64246ceaaeb5/will-us-nonfarm-labor-productivity-grow-by-more-than-10-in-any-year-through-2035 - [Will US prime-age employment be under 65% in 2035?](https://preseen.com/reports/63775d81-9dde-4fcd-a8ea-e1c79b64aadc/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/63775d81-9dde-4fcd-a8ea-e1c79b64aadc/will-us-prime-age-employment-be-under-65-in-2035 - [Will the US Supreme Court rule that training generative AI on copyrighted works without a license is not fair use by the end of 2030?](https://preseen.com/reports/c7684d8f-c68d-48e2-bd76-28cd272de7fa/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/c7684d8f-c68d-48e2-bd76-28cd272de7fa/will-the-us-supreme-court-rule-that-training-generative-ai-on-copyrighted-works - [Before 2030, will an AI-generated version of a deceased musician release a song that reaches the top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100?](https://preseen.com/reports/4adb2847-f979-46d3-b603-a900c13787f1/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/4adb2847-f979-46d3-b603-a900c13787f1/before-2030-will-an-ai-generated-version-of-a-deceased-musician-release-a-song-t - [How many confirmed cases of cyclosporiasis will there be in the United States in 2026?](https://preseen.com/reports/8d32ab30-3494-4cf9-b479-00053a5f92b0/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/8d32ab30-3494-4cf9-b479-00053a5f92b0/how-many-confirmed-cases-of-cyclosporiasis-will-there-be-in-the-united-states-in - [Is P=NP?](https://preseen.com/reports/a4c91396-585f-4232-9bdd-3587aee5b2de/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/a4c91396-585f-4232-9bdd-3587aee5b2de/is-p-np - [Will the reentry of a Starlink satellite cause damage to a structure on earth before 2030?](https://preseen.com/reports/953f9bda-f78f-40b8-92bb-a70f929d969e/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/953f9bda-f78f-40b8-92bb-a70f929d969e/will-the-reentry-of-a-starlink-satellite-cause-damage-to-a-structure-on-earth-be - [What will be the weight of the heaviest pumpkin weighed in October 2026?](https://preseen.com/reports/d7bb4297-f7a8-402c-98b7-76982f732200/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/d7bb4297-f7a8-402c-98b7-76982f732200/what-will-be-the-weight-of-the-heaviest-pumpkin-weighed-in-october-2026 - [How many nonfarm payroll jobs will the U.S. add in the September 2026 Employment Situation report?](https://preseen.com/reports/b7a1a95d-4fae-45ab-a2b9-1dccc690369f/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/b7a1a95d-4fae-45ab-a2b9-1dccc690369f/how-many-nonfarm-payroll-jobs-will-the-u-s-add-in-the-september-2026-employment - [Will the U.S. or China extend existing tariff relief on bilateral trade?](https://preseen.com/reports/97589d2c-6ed1-48c7-a360-f5971e0df2e0/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/97589d2c-6ed1-48c7-a360-f5971e0df2e0/will-the-u-s-or-china-extend-existing-tariff-relief-on-bilateral-trade - [Will the U.S. and China make a concrete new bilateral AI risk-management commitment?](https://preseen.com/reports/1d11fb82-ecff-4597-aac7-abb92ed395b8/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/1d11fb82-ecff-4597-aac7-abb92ed395b8/will-the-u-s-and-china-make-a-concrete-new-bilateral-ai-risk-management-commitme - [Will the U.S. and China announce a new Taiwan-related crisis-management mechanism or specific restraint commitment?](https://preseen.com/reports/2a3d5b08-f43b-48eb-87c7-ad1cb573f849/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/2a3d5b08-f43b-48eb-87c7-ad1cb573f849/will-the-u-s-and-china-announce-a-new-taiwan-related-crisis-management-mechanism - [Will China ease export restrictions or licensing for critical minerals or related technology?](https://preseen.com/reports/9e833fb5-23bb-4f02-bae9-5bbdcc2dd4ff/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/9e833fb5-23bb-4f02-bae9-5bbdcc2dd4ff/will-china-ease-export-restrictions-or-licensing-for-critical-minerals-or-relate - [Will China announce a quantified new or expanded purchase commitment for U.S. goods?](https://preseen.com/reports/04d9382e-c973-4054-a9cd-5c9ea515ae32/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/04d9382e-c973-4054-a9cd-5c9ea515ae32/will-china-announce-a-quantified-new-or-expanded-purchase-commitment-for-u-s-goo - [Will the U.S. ease technology export restrictions applicable to China?](https://preseen.com/reports/662d77bb-e436-42e1-b5af-17563f007d30/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/662d77bb-e436-42e1-b5af-17563f007d30/will-the-u-s-ease-technology-export-restrictions-applicable-to-china - [Will the U.S. or China announce additional tariff reductions or new tariff exclusions on specified bilateral goods?](https://preseen.com/reports/ad4aea6a-92f2-4283-af03-57245fc161ca/markdown) — canonical page: https://preseen.com/reports/ad4aea6a-92f2-4283-af03-57245fc161ca/will-the-u-s-or-china-announce-additional-tariff-reductions-or-new-tariff-exclus - 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