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Jeddah Tower construction completion forecast\\n\\n## Executive Summary\\n\\n**The median completion date is 2030-02-05, with a central 80% range from 2029-01-18 to 2033-11-06.** The forecast is later than the developer’s reported 2028 target and allows substantial room for further delay.\\n\\n| Forecast percentile | Date | Meaning |\\n|---|---|---|\\n| 10th percentile | 2029-01-18 | A 10% chance of completion on or before this date |\\n| 50th percentile | 2030-02-05 | An equal chance of completion before or after this date |\\n| 90th percentile | 2033-11-06 | A 90% chance of completion on or before this date |\\n\\nThese dates concern the **first qualifying public declaration that structural and architectural construction is finished**. Reaching final structural height—known as *topping out*—does not by itself qualify. Tenant fit-out, occupancy and the surrounding Jeddah Economic City development need not be complete.\\n\\nThe central issue is a mismatch between milestones: developer-facing reporting describes late 2028 as completion, while the engineering team places structural topping-out in that same period. The forecast therefore allows additional time for architectural work and ordinary schedule slippage, while retaining a smaller possibility of faster delivery.\\n\\n## Key drivers\\n\\n### The advertised target and the engineering milestone are not the same endpoint\\n\\n[Gulf Business’s October 5, 2026 developer interview](https://gulfbusiness.com/en/2026/saudi-arabia/jeddah-tower-delayed-late-2028-burj-khalifa/) reported a late-2028 completion target. In [Newsweek’s October 30 interviews with the project team](https://www.newsweek.com/future-worlds-tallest-building-hit-major-construction-milestone-jeddah-tower-12643303), the structural engineer instead placed topping-out in the fourth quarter of 2028 and noted that the schedule was being refined.\\n\\nHistorical comparisons support allowing months between final structural height and exterior completion. They do not establish a universal finishing period, but they argue against treating topping-out as automatic resolution.\\n\\n### Construction is genuinely advancing, but the remaining work is less repetitive\\n\\nThe [shareholder-attributed update published November 2, 2026](https://www.argaam.com/en/article/articledetail/id/1949440) reported 120 floors and approximately 482 metres of height. This is an active construction project, not a dormant proposal.\\n\\nHowever, recent floor-production rates cannot simply be extended to the finish. The contractor’s planned sequence moves into the upper observation-deck structures during 2027, followed by the spire during 2028. These are more specialized tasks than ordinary floors. The project team also reported more wind-related downtime than expected, with weather exposure becoming more consequential at greater height.\\n\\n### The exterior requires a substantial production increase\\n\\nThe façade—the building’s exterior enclosure—is an independent check on the schedule. The November 2 update reported more than 3,900 installed panels, approximately 14% of the total. The end-July disclosure had reported more than 3,000 panels, approximately 11%.\\n\\nA calculation using those rounded disclosures suggests that meeting the advertised completion target would require roughly a threefold increase over the apparent installation pace between those reporting windows. This is a workload stress test, **not a measured capacity ceiling**: measurement dates are uncertain, and installation can expand across several work fronts. Nevertheless, the required acceleration had not been independently verified.\\n\\n### Contracts and delivery incentives support completion, without eliminating interruption risk\\n\\nThe [October 2, 2024 completion agreement](https://kingdom.com.sa/news/jeddah-economic-company-has-signed-an-agreement), valued at SAR 7.2 billion including amounts already paid, and the dedicated façade contract give the restart commercial substance. Financial disclosures also describe a contractor ownership interest with benefits conditional on delivery milestones.\\n\\nThese arrangements support continued execution. They do not prove that every future overrun is funded, nor do they remove technical, procurement or financing risks. The tower’s previous multi-year suspension remains relevant to the possibility of long delays.\\n\\n## Scenarios\\n\\nThe forecast gives greatest weight to continued construction with ordinary schedule friction. Faster execution remains possible, while increasingly severe disruptions account for the long tail toward later dates. The pathways below can overlap in calendar timing; they are not separate calendar-year categories.\\n\\n| Scenario | Relative importance and rationale | How it affects completion |\\n|---|---|---|\\n| **Continued execution with ordinary friction** | The dominant case. Active construction, signed delivery packages and recent progress support continued work, but no verified integrated schedule demonstrates a seamless finish. | Specialized upper construction, residual architectural work and modest slippage put the declaration beyond the headline structural target. |\\n| **Faster execution with extensive overlap** | A small favorable case. Supplier methods allow prefabrication and coordinated installation alongside structural and building-services work. | A sustained façade ramp-up and extensive overlap of finishing work bring the declaration closer to the advertised schedule. |\\n| **Major technical, procurement, funding or finishing delay** | The principal downside case. Unusual upper structures, weather exposure and the unfinished exterior create several possible bottlenecks. | A significant problem in one or more work packages pushes completion materially later. |\\n| **Prolonged interruption followed by completion** | A small possibility of a long delay. The project’s history warrants retaining this possibility, although current activity argues against making it the central case. | A lengthy pause is followed by remobilization and eventual delivery. |\\n| **Permanent noncompletion** | A small residual possibility, rather than the expected outcome. Active work and contractual commitments weigh against it, but cannot rule it out. | No finite completion date; the question resolves above its upper bound under the stated rules. |\\n\\n## Implications\\n\\n- **Do not use the reported 2028 target as a dependable trigger for commitments requiring finished construction.** The forecast’s middle value and its broad range indicate meaningful schedule risk beyond that target.\\n- **Keep construction completion separate from opening and occupancy.** A topping-out announcement may be too early for resolution, while an opening ceremony may be later than necessary. The wording of the eventual completion declaration matters.\\n- **Preserve flexibility for a long delay, not just a modest overrun.** The distribution extends much further toward later outcomes than toward earlier ones. Its 90th-percentile date is not a guaranteed deadline, and permanent noncompletion remains possible.\\n\\n## Signs to watch\\n\\nThe dated items below are reported construction plans, not independently verified commitments. For this date forecast, **lower means earlier completion; higher means later completion**.\\n\\n| Timing | Development to watch | Direction and significance |\\n|---|---|---|\\n| **November–December 2026** | The project team expects the tower to reach approximately 500 metres before year-end. | Reaching the milestone would modestly support a lower or narrower forecast. A material miss would push it higher, especially if accompanied by weaker production. |\\n| **During 2027; Sky Raft planned by year-end** | Construction moves into the observation-deck supports and the thick concrete Sky Raft slab marking the beginning of the spire. | Smooth execution would narrow uncertainty. Technical difficulties or prolonged wind stoppages would move dates higher and potentially widen the range. |\\n| **During 2028; structural topping-out targeted for the fourth quarter** | Progress on the spire and confirmation of the structural schedule. | An on-time structure with an advanced exterior would support lower, narrower dates. Structural slippage would push dates higher. Topping-out alone would not resolve the question. |\\n| **At any subsequent progress disclosure** | A sustained, dated increase in façade installation, rather than isolated panel-count announcements. | Demonstrated acceleration would lower and narrow the forecast; continued slow installation would raise it. A verified production ramp would settle a major uncertainty and make the forecast worth rerunning. |\\n| **Any time, without a scheduled announcement date** | Publication of an integrated schedule connecting the structure, spire, exterior and architectural closeout. | A credible plan showing extensive overlap could lower and narrow the forecast; newly disclosed dependencies or slippage could raise it. Either would warrant rerunning the forecast. |\\n| **Any time** | A funding commitment covering overruns, or conversely a financing problem, contractor disruption or renewed suspension. | Stronger funding assurance would chiefly narrow the late-delay risk. A disruption would move dates higher and widen the range; a major interruption would warrant rerunning the forecast. |\\n\\nA clear qualifying declaration that structural and architectural construction is finished would settle the question. An announcement referring only to structural completion would not.\\n\\n## Research and methodology\\n\\nThe forecast uses a judgmental, scenario-based timing model. It combines evidence of current production with allowances for specialized upper construction, exterior completion and possible interruption. The distribution is deliberately wider toward later outcomes rather than narrowly centered on the developer’s target.\\n\\nThe research also assembled dated progress snapshots and tested the exterior workload implied by the reported panel counts. These observations were treated as irregular project reports, not as an independently measured construction series or a basis for a precise production trend.\\n\\nThe most consequential sources were:\\n\\n- **Project-team interviews:** [Newsweek, October 30, 2026](https://www.newsweek.com/future-worlds-tallest-building-hit-major-construction-milestone-jeddah-tower-12643303), provided the structural target, upper-construction sequence and reported wind delays. [Gulf Business, October 5, 2026](https://gulfbusiness.com/en/2026/saudi-arabia/jeddah-tower-delayed-late-2028-burj-khalifa/), supplied the contrasting developer completion guidance.\\n- **Shareholder progress disclosures:** Kingdom Holding’s [April presentation](https://kingdom.com.sa/storage/media/ab51c7dd-612d-426f-8e38-8ca665c0e070.pdf), [end-July snapshot](https://kingdom.com.sa/storage/media/d19a62e4-6568-4186-8ec0-9be77b843561.pdf) and [November 2 update reported by Argaam](https://www.argaam.com/en/article/articledetail/id/1949440) established physical progress and exterior-panel counts.\\n- **Façade supplier evidence:** [Jangho’s first-installation announcement](https://en.jangho.com/JANGHONEWS/2025/1203/140.html) and its [October 30, 2026 supplier interview](https://www.prc-magazine.com/jangho-at-one-kilometre-engineering-the-curtain-wall-of-jeddah-tower/) documented mobilization and methods that could support faster installation. These explain why early production need not remain constant, without proving the required acceleration.\\n- **Contractual and financial disclosures:** The [restart completion agreement](https://kingdom.com.sa/news/jeddah-economic-company-has-signed-an-agreement) and [Kingdom Holding’s 2025 annual report](https://kingdom.com.sa/download/reports/khcir25-english-spread-view) informed the assessment of funding arrangements and delivery incentives.\\n- **Historical finishing comparisons:** [Emaar’s Burj Khalifa milestone fact sheet](https://bk.emaar.com/en/assets/FACT-SHEET.pdf), [Lotte World Tower’s structural-engineering account](https://www.structuremag.org/article/structural-innovations-of-lotte-world-tower/) and [contemporary reporting of Lotte’s exterior completion](https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/business/companies/20161211/lotte-world-tower-set-to-open-in-april) supported a months-long allowance between final structural height and exterior completion. They were two selected successful projects, not a representative statistical sample.\\n\\n## Limitations\\n\\nThe most important missing information was a **current, verified integrated schedule** linking the upper structure, spire, façade fabrication and installation, architectural closeout and intended completion declaration. Such a schedule could materially change the timing assessment.\\n\\nThe research also could not verify an independently dated façade production ramp or a complete funding commitment set aside to cover future overruns. Progress disclosures use inconsistent or unspecified physical measurement dates, limiting precise rate calculations. These gaps are not evidence that construction will stop.\\n\\nFinally, the exact calendar dates are percentile markers in an uncertain distribution—not evidence that construction can be predicted to a particular day.\"},\"engine\":{\"metadata\":{\"engine\":\"durable_forecast\",\"model\":\"gpt-6.1-sol\",\"model_route\":{\"deadline_seconds\":2400,\"managed_tools\":true,\"max_attempts\":2,\"metadata\":{},\"model\":\"gpt-6.1-sol\",\"native_code_execution\":true,\"native_web_search\":true,\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"},\"orchestration_backend\":\"durable_forecast\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"question_type\":\"date\"},\"settings\":{\"claude_runtime\":\"e2b\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"high\",\"subforecast_count\":4,\"subforecast_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"synthesis_model\":\"gpt-6.1-sol\",\"synthesis_reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"}},\"forecast\":{\"callsign\":\"CIPHER2-07\",\"created_at\":\"2026-11-03T13:40:02.962751+00:00\",\"forecast_task_id\":\"64bc85f4-bd61-46a2-8080-dbc0973e1424\",\"id\":\"ff942601-63a8-4853-860e-00bcf1571e36\",\"orchestrator_model\":\"gpt-6.1-sol\",\"question_version_id\":\"aced868e-7f28-4625-9037-5ff64cb1b918\",\"research_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol+gpt-6.1-sol+claude-opus-5-5\",\"trigger_kind\":\"scheduled\"},\"issuer\":\"Preseen\",\"product\":\"Preseen\",\"question\":{\"callsign\":\"CIPHER2\",\"description\":\"This question asks for the calendar date on which construction of the Jeddah Tower (also known as Kingdom Tower) in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia is completed. Jeddah Tower is planned to exceed 1,000 meters in height and become the tallest building in the world. Construction began in 2013 but experienced long delays and a multi-year pause before resuming around 2024–2025. As of early 2026, construction has progressed past roughly 80–100 floors, with work advancing steadily again. ([jeddahconstruct.com](https://www.jeddahconstruct.com/)) Current public estimates from developers and reporting suggest a target completion around 2028, though timelines have historically shifted. ([agbi.com](https://www.agbi.com/real-estate/2025/11/jeddah-tower-world-tallest-building-homes-to-go-on-sale-in-2026/)) The question resolves to the date when the tower is officially considered complete (see criteria below).\",\"fine_print\":\"- “Completion” refers to completion of construction of the tower itself, not the broader Jeddah Economic City development.\\r\\n- Temporary pauses or resumptions do not affect resolution unless they change the final completion date.\\r\\n- Minor discrepancies between sources (e.g., ceremonial opening vs. construction completion) will be resolved in favor of the earliest clear statement that construction is finished.\\r\\n- If the tower is cancelled or never completed this question will resolve above the upper bound date.\",\"id\":\"f5bea537-f5f1-4132-ad18-ade1a70d0cab\",\"lower_bound\":\"1830297600\",\"open_lower_bound\":true,\"open_upper_bound\":true,\"options\":[],\"options_are_comprehensive\":true,\"options_are_mutually_exclusive\":true,\"question_type\":\"date\",\"resolution_check_date\":\"2028-06-30\",\"resolution_criteria\":\"The question resolves to the first calendar date on which Jeddah Tower is officially declared complete by its developer (Jeddah Economic Company), the Saudi government, or widely accepted international business or construction media (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times), indicating that construction has been finished. \\\"Complete\\\" is defined as structural and architectural construction being finished to the point that the building is no longer under construction, even if interior fit-out, tenant occupancy, or surrounding infrastructure continues afterward. If multiple dates are reported, the earliest date of a clear and widely reported declaration of completion will be used.\",\"scale_type\":\"\",\"title\":\"When will the construction of Jeddah Tower be complete?\",\"upper_bound\":\"2145830400\"},\"question_version\":{\"created_at\":\"2026-11-03T13:40:02.845631+00:00\",\"created_reason\":\"forecast_task_created\",\"id\":\"aced868e-7f28-4625-9037-5ff64cb1b918\",\"version_number\":2},\"receipt_kind\":\"forecast_attestation\",\"receipt_schema_version\":1,\"signature_context\":{\"key_source\":\"configured\",\"public_key_id\":\"preseen-prod-ed25519-20260523\",\"signature_algorithm\":\"ed25519\",\"signed_at\":\"2026-11-03T14:08:57.797958+00:00\"}}","verification":{"valid":true,"error":""},"created_at":"2026-11-03T14:08:57.808743+00:00","updated_at":"2026-11-03T14:08:58.754517+00:00"}}