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Vehicles: Comprehensive Plan Could Help DOT Address Challenges | U.S. GAO\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T06:37:52.981657+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-18-132\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"December 2025 Market Beat: New Light-Vehicle Sales Totaled 16.2 Million Units in 2025 | NADA\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T06:37:52.981765+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.nada.org/index.php/nada/nada-headlines/december-2025-market-beat-new-light-vehicle-sales-totaled-162-million-units\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"OMB Control No.:2127-0004\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T06:37:52.981806+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2026/RCLRPT-26E035-3773.pdf\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"A General Framework to Forecast the Adoption of Novel Products: A Case of Autonomous Vehicles\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T06:37:52.981841+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2109.06169.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration: Occupant Protection for Vehicles With Automated Driving Systems | U.S. GAO\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T06:37:52.981871+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.gao.gov/products/b-334208\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Automakers fulfill autobrake pledge for light-duty vehicles\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T06:37:52.981949+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.iihs.org/news/detail/automakers-fulfill-autobrake-pledge-for-light-duty-vehicles?ftag=YHF4eb9d17\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"A General Framework to Forecast the Adoption of Novel Products: A Case of Autonomous Vehicles\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T06:37:52.981979+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.06169\"}],\"write_up\":\"## TL;DR\\nThe median resolving publication date is **October 25, 2056**, and the chance of resolution by December 31, 2055 is **47.4%**. The threshold is not the first good robotaxi: it is unrestricted all-road, all-weather autonomy sold on roughly 8.1 million vehicles in a rolling year, at the current market's scale ([NADA](https://www.nada.org/media/4695/download?inline=)). ([nada.org](https://www.nada.org/media/4695/download?inline=&utm_source=openai)) The 2040s remain plausible, but the largest risk is that broad Level 4 captures most of the value while literal Level 5 stays late or never arrives.\\n\\n## Context\\nThe starting share is effectively zero. NHTSA says no fully automated vehicle is available for sale, defines Level 4 as limited to service areas, and defines Level 5 as universal operation under all conditions and on all roadways ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle-safety/automated-vehicles-safety)). ([nhtsa.gov](https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle-safety/automated-vehicles-safety?utm_source=openai)) The IEA's May 20, 2026 assessment says Level 5 is not in sight, even though about 8,000 commercial Level 4 robotaxis operated across roughly 20 cities worldwide in 2025 ([IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/autonomous-vehicles)). ([iea.org](https://www.iea.org/reports/autonomous-vehicles?utm_source=openai))\\n\\nThe sales bar is large. The 2025 U.S. market was 16,233,363 light-duty vehicles, so half is 8,116,682 units; General Motors, Toyota, and Ford together held only 46.1% of sales, while adding Hyundai raised the total to 57.4% ([NADA](https://www.nada.org/media/4695/download?inline=)). ([nada.org](https://www.nada.org/media/4695/download?inline=&utm_source=openai)) A qualifying system therefore needs at least four current major manufacturer groups, a major shift in market share, or a common autonomy platform licensed across brands.\\n\\n## Evidence\\nThe best historical backbone is automotive technology diffusion. EPA's February 2026 report covers model years 1975 through 2024, with preliminary 2025 data, and compares seven successful car technologies after “first significant use,” usually about 1% of production. Its chart implies roughly 5–18 years to cross 50%, and the report says technologies took about 15–20 years on average to reach maximum industry penetration; it also says staggered adoption across manufacturers slows the industry-wide curve ([EPA](https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2026-02/420r26001.pdf)). ([epa.gov](https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2026-02/420r26001.pdf?utm_source=openai)) This is an optimistic reference class because EPA selected technologies that did become widespread. I use 8–15 years from first significant qualifying Level 5 sales to the 50% rolling-share publication, with 10–12 years on the central path.\\n\\nPolicy can compress that lag once a feature is mature. A 2016 agreement covered 20 automakers representing 99% of the U.S. market, and by the September 2019–August 2020 production year 10 manufacturers already installed automatic emergency braking on more than 95% of their light vehicles ([IIHS](https://www.iihs.org/api/datastoredocument/status-report/pdf/55/5)). ([iihs.org](https://www.iihs.org/api/datastoredocument/status-report/pdf/55/5?utm_source=openai)) But AEB is a bounded intervention feature. Full autonomy replaces the whole driving task and adds far larger validation, hardware, cyber, service, insurance, and liability burdens. I therefore do not use AEB's fastest rollout as the central case.\\n\\nThe strongest positive signal is that constrained driverless operation is now real at scale. Through March 2026, Waymo reported 220.6 million rider-only miles in five metro areas, with 94% fewer serious-or-worse crashes and 82% fewer injury-causing crashes than geographically adjusted human benchmarks in those operating domains ([Waymo](https://waymo.com/safety/impact/)). ([waymo.com](https://waymo.com/safety/impact/?_bhlid=a63e7d4f0819373e1d7ebabacb761d464c83688f&utm_source=openai)) By July 8, 2026, Waymo was preparing driverless launches in four more cities and adapting its system to the Hyundai IONIQ 5, evidence that the stack can transfer across cities and vehicle platforms ([Waymo](https://waymo.com/blog/shorts/ro-den-lv-sd-tmpa/)). ([waymo.com](https://waymo.com/blog/shorts/ro-den-lv-sd-tmpa/?utm_source=openai)) This moves my forecast earlier than one based only on missed promises from the 2010s.\\n\\nThe hard part is the final removal of the operational design domain. A 2024 Nature Communications paper formalizes the “curse of rarity”: safety-critical events are rare inside a huge space of weather, infrastructure, objects, and human behavior, so training and validation become harder as common cases are solved ([Nature Communications](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-49194-0)). ([nature.com](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-49194-0?utm_source=openai)) RAND's 2016 analysis found that ordinary road testing could require hundreds of millions to billions of miles to demonstrate reliability for rare injury and fatality outcomes, forcing developers to rely on simulation, scenario testing, safety cases, and post-deployment evidence as well ([RAND](https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1478.html)). ([rand.org](https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/corporate_pubs/CP000/CP1-2016/RAND_CP1-2016.pdf?utm_source=openai))\\n\\nRecent failures show why city count is not a clean proxy for universal competence. On July 8, 2026, NHTSA said it had found a pattern of driverless vehicles entering or obstructing emergency scenes and called inability to handle lights, flares, smoke, fire, and cones a “functional insufficiency,” not an exotic edge case ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2026-07/ADS-developers-letter-july-2026.pdf)). ([nhtsa.gov](https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2026-07/ADS-developers-letter-july-2026.pdf?utm_source=openai)) Waymo's 2026 construction-zone recall followed six Phoenix events and seven Bay Area events in which vehicles passed closure signs or entered closed lanes; its flood recall covered 3,791 systems and initially added weather and map restrictions ([construction recall](https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2026/RCLRPT-26E035-7637.pdf); [flood recall](https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2026/RCAK-26E026-9973.pdf)). ([static.nhtsa.gov](https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2026/RCLRPT-26E035-7637.pdf?utm_source=openai)) These are fixable defects. They are also direct evidence that the question's no-restrictions standard remains far beyond today's Level 4.\\n\\nIndustry plans point the same way. McKinsey's survey of 91 decision-makers, conducted in January 2025 and published January 6, 2026, found that expected deployment dates had slipped one to two years; 49% expected the 2035 private-vehicle mass market to center on Level 2+, while 39% expected Level 3 or higher ([McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/features/mckinsey-center-for-future-mobility/our-insights/future-of-autonomous-vehicles-industry)). ([mckinsey.com](https://www.mckinsey.com/features/mckinsey-center-for-future-mobility/our-insights/future-of-autonomous-vehicles-industry?utm_source=openai)) This is expert opinion, not a base rate, but it supports a low probability of reaching the much harder Level 5 sales threshold before 2040.\\n\\nRegulation is moving, but capability remains the main bottleneck. On June 25, 2026, NHTSA began its fifth FMVSS modernization effort for ADS-only designs, while saying real-world safety-performance requirements and national ADS competency standards were still under development ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/fmvss-updates-brake-pedal-requirements)). ([nhtsa.gov](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/fmvss-updates-brake-pedal-requirements?utm_source=openai)) Part 555 exemptions remain capped at 2,500 noncompliant vehicles per manufacturer per year, useful for pilots but irrelevant to an eight-million-unit threshold ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/streamline-exemption-process-noncompliant)). ([nhtsa.gov](https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/streamline-exemption-process-noncompliant?utm_source=openai)) State rules still span operation, registration, insurance, liability, inspection, and testing ([NCSL](https://www.ncsl.org/transportation/autonomous-vehicles-legislation-database/lang/en)). ([ncsl.org](https://www.ncsl.org/transportation/autonomous-vehicles-legislation-database/lang/en?utm_source=openai))\\n\\nI model the final publication date directly. Each finite path is a normal distribution truncated at July 23, 2026; its mean already includes technical qualification, diffusion to 50%, completion of the rolling year, and several months for publication.\\n\\n| Path | Weight | Mean final date | Standard deviation | Reading |\\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---|\\n| Fast | 17% | January 1, 2044 | 4 years | Generalizable autonomy appears in the 2030s and spreads across OEMs unusually fast |\\n| Central | 44% | January 1, 2054 | 6 years | Broad Level 4 comes first; unrestricted capability and multi-OEM diffusion take another generation |\\n| Slow | 25% | January 1, 2068 | 9.5 years | Rare-condition validation, cost, liability, or state fragmentation delay mass adoption |\\n| Very late | 8% | January 1, 2092 | 15 years | Level 5 remains technically possible but commercially secondary |\\n| Never | 6% | No finite date | — | Useful autonomy remains ODD-limited under the literal criteria |\\n\\nThis mixture gives under 1% by the end of 2035, 5% by the end of 2040, 16% by the end of 2045, 30.8% by the end of 2050, and 47.4% by December 31, 2055. The 10th, 25th, and 50th percentile dates are September 10, 2043; February 7, 2049; and October 25, 2056. The final post-2055 bucket is 52.6%.\\n\\n## What's non-obvious\\nThe threshold is easier than replacing half the vehicles on the road, but harder than it first looks because it is an industry-share test. New-sales diffusion can move quickly once a system is mature. Yet one leading automaker cannot resolve the question: the three largest 2025 manufacturer groups together were still below 50% ([NADA](https://www.nada.org/media/4695/download?inline=)). ([nada.org](https://www.nada.org/media/4695/download?inline=&utm_source=openai)) Platform reuse across several OEMs matters almost as much as the date of the first qualifying car.\\n\\nThe deeper trap is that success at Level 4 can delay Level 5. Geofenced fleets can use mapped domains, centralized maintenance, operational controls, and city-by-city approval while capturing most robotaxi value; the IEA describes exactly this model and expects 2035 fleets to remain concentrated in 40–80 cities ([IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/autonomous-vehicles)). ([iea.org](https://www.iea.org/reports/autonomous-vehicles?utm_source=openai)) Under this question, a car that handles 99.99% of valuable trips still does not qualify. That discontinuity creates the large late-or-never tail.\\n\\n## Limitations\\nThere is no historical technology that combines full dynamic-driving responsibility, universal environmental coverage, software liability, cyber risk, and multi-OEM production at this scale. EPA's reference class contains only technologies that eventually spread, and the 5–18 year crossing range is read from a chart rather than a published table ([EPA](https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2026-02/420r26001.pdf)). ([epa.gov](https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2026-02/420r26001.pdf?utm_source=openai))\\n\\nWaymo's safety data are company-produced and confined to its actual operating domains, even though the methods use public crash reports and peer-reviewed benchmarks ([Waymo](https://waymo.com/safety/impact/)). ([waymo.com](https://waymo.com/safety/impact/?utm_source=openai)) I found no current sales dataset that labels vehicles by the functional criteria in this question, so the eventual resolving authority may need to combine manufacturer capability disclosures, NHTSA findings, and industry sales data. The largest uncertainty is a genuine AI generalization breakthrough: it could collapse the technical timeline, while a major safety or cybersecurity failure could add a decade.\"},\"engine\":{\"metadata\":{\"engine\":\"durable_forecast\",\"model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"model_route\":{\"deadline_seconds\":2400,\"managed_tools\":true,\"max_attempts\":2,\"metadata\":{},\"model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"native_code_execution\":true,\"native_web_search\":true,\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"},\"orchestration_backend\":\"durable_forecast\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"question_type\":\"date\"},\"settings\":{\"claude_runtime\":\"e2b\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"high\",\"subforecast_count\":4,\"subforecast_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"synthesis_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"synthesis_reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"}},\"forecast\":{\"callsign\":\"JAVELIN23-01\",\"created_at\":\"2026-07-23T06:24:15.269773+00:00\",\"forecast_task_id\":\"cfe1a787-603b-4866-971f-ec12d2b820a9\",\"id\":\"dc0ac1ab-a064-4e12-9432-1b0010027e4c\",\"orchestrator_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"question_version_id\":\"73217044-b9e2-4c3d-8648-049bf2bb176c\",\"research_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"trigger_kind\":\"manual\"},\"issuer\":\"Preseen\",\"product\":\"Preseen\",\"question\":{\"callsign\":\"JAVELIN23\",\"description\":\"Forecast the calendar date on which at least 50% of all new passenger cars and light trucks sold in the United States are fully autonomous and qualified to drive on all public roads without any human driver attention, supervision, or intervention. As of mid-2026, no vehicle sold to U.S. consumers is considered fully automated for all public roads; commercially available systems are limited in capability or operational design domain, and NHTSA states that no fully automated/self-driving vehicle is currently available for sale. SAE Level 5 represents full automation under all roadway and environmental conditions. ([nhtsa.gov](https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle-safety/automated-vehicles-safety))\\n\\nFor this question, \\\"new cars sold\\\" refers to new light-duty passenger vehicles (passenger cars and light trucks, including SUVs and pickups) sold at retail or fleet into the U.S. market during a calendar year.\",\"fine_print\":\"Vehicles that are autonomous only within a limited operational design domain (for example, only on certain mapped roads, only in certain cities, only in good weather, or only at certain speeds) do not qualify. SAE Level 3 and Level 4 systems with any geographic or operational restrictions do not qualify. Driver-assistance or supervised driving systems (including systems requiring a human to remain attentive) do not qualify. If regulatory definitions evolve, this question should continue to use the functional criteria above rather than marketing terminology or regulatory labels alone.\",\"id\":\"179ff88a-6fce-4a5d-9dfe-6a385cb68ebe\",\"lower_bound\":\"1784764800\",\"open_lower_bound\":false,\"open_upper_bound\":true,\"options\":[],\"options_are_comprehensive\":true,\"options_are_mutually_exclusive\":true,\"question_type\":\"date\",\"resolution_check_date\":null,\"resolution_criteria\":\"The question resolves to the first calendar date on which sufficient official or industry sales data are publicly available demonstrating that at least 50% of all new light-duty passenger vehicles sold in the United States during a completed rolling 12-month period satisfy all of the following:\\n\\n1. The vehicle is sold as a production vehicle to customers in the U.S. market.\\n2. The vehicle is capable of driving on all public roads that are legally open to ordinary passenger vehicles throughout the United States, without geographic, roadway-type, weather, or operational-design-domain restrictions beyond those that would also prevent a competent human driver from operating.\\n3. The vehicle requires no human driver to monitor the driving environment or be prepared to intervene at any time during normal operation.\\n4. The autonomous capability is included on the sold vehicle (whether standard or activated through a purchased software license at the time of sale).\\n\\nPrimary resolution sources will be U.S. Department of Transportation/NHTSA publications and manufacturer certifications where applicable, combined with annual or rolling-12-month U.S. sales data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Wards Intelligence, or another widely accepted automotive industry sales source. If multiple sources disagree, the most authoritative government determination regarding qualification for unrestricted autonomous operation will take precedence, while the most widely accepted industry sales dataset will determine market share.\\n\\nThe resolving date is the publication date of the first dataset that demonstrates the 50% threshold has been reached, not the first day of the sales period itself.\",\"scale_type\":\"\",\"title\":\"When will 50% of all new cars sold in the US be fully autonomous and qualified to drive on all public roads?\",\"upper_bound\":\"2713824000\"},\"question_version\":{\"created_at\":\"2026-07-23T06:24:05.607120+00:00\",\"created_reason\":\"question_created\",\"id\":\"73217044-b9e2-4c3d-8648-049bf2bb176c\",\"version_number\":1},\"receipt_kind\":\"forecast_attestation\",\"receipt_schema_version\":1,\"signature_context\":{\"key_source\":\"configured\",\"public_key_id\":\"preseen-prod-ed25519-20260523\",\"signature_algorithm\":\"ed25519\",\"signed_at\":\"2026-07-23T06:57:10.887148+00:00\"}}","verification":{"valid":true,"error":""},"created_at":"2026-07-23T06:57:10.897494+00:00","updated_at":"2026-07-23T06:57:11.310766+00:00"}}