{"receipt":{"id":"174d7fb3-dfd9-448e-95a4-8de25d5cc99f","forecast_data_point_id":"4ed9cb5d-b391-40dd-b102-cca8b18074b3","status":"externally_anchored","status_note":"This receipt is signed by Preseen and externally timestamped by DigiCert RFC 3161 TSA.","payload_sha256":"0ac85c3815b9f34c0a1db10f831b6d628c13f91d7c0567340e2d91d5a1857fb4","signature":"i2bjzZiNpRJhr4CEaYjZwMb0d70GUmszevj09E7CWVtDZclm8ohomzGjp/HXgCZwE+IOwS6ajBhJEApHDZhQCQ==","signature_algorithm":"ed25519","signature_encoding":"base64-raw-ed25519","public_key_id":"preseen-prod-ed25519-20260523","public_key":"CbFQINZmmv+VZJ9Ha23ibXpK8zz549ZcsMQNI8cha4g=","public_key_encoding":"base64-raw-ed25519","signed_at":"2026-09-10T10:23:04.122955+00:00","anchor_provider":"DigiCert RFC 3161 TSA","anchor_proof":{"type":"rfc3161_timestamp_token","policy":"2.16.840.1.114412.7.1","tsa_url":"http://timestamp.digicert.com","version":1,"gen_time":"2026-09-10T10:23:04+00:00","provider":"DigiCert RFC 3161 TSA","serial_number":"46016080940072154695490192592432023854","hash_algorithm":"sha256","token_der_base64":"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","response_der_base64":"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","message_imprint_sha256":"0ac85c3815b9f34c0a1db10f831b6d628c13f91d7c0567340e2d91d5a1857fb4"},"anchored_at":"2026-09-10T10:23:04+00:00","payload_canonical_json":"{\"artifact\":{\"data_schema_version\":2,\"forecast_data\":{\"format\":\"option_probabilities\",\"notes\":\"Synthesized ensemble forecast.\",\"payload\":{\"probabilities\":{\"Any other pair\":0.071135,\"Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Gabriel Attal\":0.0001,\"Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Raphaël Glucksmann\":0.00015,\"Marine Le Pen and Bruno Retailleau\":0.01922,\"Marine Le Pen and Gabriel Attal\":0.01922,\"Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon\":0.379595,\"Marine Le Pen and Raphaël Glucksmann\":0.07688,\"Marine Le Pen and Édouard Philippe\":0.43245,\"Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal\":0.0001,\"Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon\":0.0009,\"Édouard Philippe and Raphaël Glucksmann\":0.00025}},\"question_type\":\"multiple_choice\"},\"forecast_data_point_id\":\"4ed9cb5d-b391-40dd-b102-cca8b18074b3\",\"generated_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:23:04.055443+00:00\",\"metadata\":{\"engine\":\"durable_forecast\",\"model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"model_route\":{\"deadline_seconds\":2400,\"managed_tools\":true,\"max_attempts\":2,\"metadata\":{},\"model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"native_code_execution\":true,\"native_web_search\":true,\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"},\"orchestration_backend\":\"durable_forecast\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"question_type\":\"multiple_choice\"},\"sources\":[{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Domain Expert Search\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:10:20.542376+00:00\",\"kind\":\"tool\",\"provider\":\"mcp\",\"snippet\":\"Found 14 domain experts for 'France 2027 presidential election polling, candidate selection, coalition coordination and Marine Le Pen legal eligibility':\",\"url\":null},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"France Elections\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:12:13.849675+00:00\",\"kind\":\"tool\",\"provider\":\"mcp\",\"snippet\":\"Election: presidential 2022 Round 1\",\"url\":null},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Europeelects\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:12:13.849925+00:00\",\"kind\":\"tool\",\"provider\":\"mcp\",\"snippet\":\"Country: France (fr)\",\"url\":null},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Electionguide\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:12:13.849980+00:00\",\"kind\":\"tool\",\"provider\":\"mcp\",\"snippet\":\"Election Search Results | country=France | type=presidential | status=held\",\"url\":null},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Domain Expert Research Task\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:00.023154+00:00\",\"kind\":\"tool\",\"provider\":\"mcp\",\"snippet\":\"Job domain_expert_research_task_694c4a30f4 done after 380970ms.\",\"url\":null},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Présidentielle 2027 : la main tendue d'Édouard Philippe, rejetée par Gabriel Attal et Bruno Retailleau, relance l'idée d'une primaire\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:03:55.906157+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.publicsenat.fr/actualites/politique/presidentielle-2027-la-main-tendue-dedouard-philippe-rejetee-par-gabriel-attal-et-bruno-retailleau-relance-lidee-dune-primaire\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"lemonde.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:00.023727+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2026/07/02/presidentielle-2027-qui-sont-les-34-candidats-declares-et-probables_6680905_4355771.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"commission-des-sondages.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:00.023735+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10250-pres-iv-ipsos-bva-le-parisien-5-septembre.pdf\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"commission-des-sondages.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:00.023743+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10251-pres-iv-cluster-17-le-point-5-septembre.pdf\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"commission-des-sondages.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:00.023750+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/files/notices/2026/septembre/10252-pres-iv-opinionway-jdd-7-septembre.pdf\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"lemonde.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:00.023757+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2026/05/17/presidentielle-2027-edouard-philippe-et-gabriel-attal-preparent-leurs-equipes-de-campagne_6690020_823448.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Présidentielle : les adhérents LR désignent Bruno Retailleau comme candidat\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:03:55.906228+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.publicsenat.fr/actualites/politique/presidentielle-bruno-retailleau-designe-candidat-par-les-adherents-lr\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"lemonde.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:00.023771+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2026/08/23/raphael-glucksmann-annonce-etre-candidat-a-l-election-presidentielle-dans-le-cadre-de-la-primaire-organisee-avec-le-parti-socialiste_6754507_823448.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"lcp.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:00.023777+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://lcp.fr/actualites/presidentielle-2027-raphael-glucksmann-officialise-sa-candidature-et-participera-a-la\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Les archives des élections en France\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:03:55.906367+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.archives-resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/resultats/presidentielle-2017/FE.php\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"archives-resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:00.023791+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.archives-resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/resultats/presidentielle-2022/FE.php\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Présidentielle 2027 : Marine Le Pen conserve une avance nette dans les intentions de vote | Ipsos\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:09:42.322782+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/presidentielle-2027-marine-le-pen-conserve-une-avance-nette-dans-les-intentions-de-vote\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"edouardphilippe.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542381+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.edouardphilippe.fr/actualites/grand-meeting-edouard-philippe-adidas-arena\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"x.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542390+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://x.com/EPhilippe_LH/status/2097407689156333580\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"twstalker.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542404+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.twstalker.com/Horizons_94220\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"lesechos.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542413+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle/presidentielle-2027-edouard-philippe-laboure-a-droite-et-continue-dasphyxier-la-candidature-de-bruno-retailleau-2250243\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"x.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542421+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://x.com/EPhilippe_LH/status/2097234204505342050\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"cluster17.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542435+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://cluster17.com/2027-edouard-philippe-domine-un-bloc-central-en-quete-dunite\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"attalpresident.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542443+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://attalpresident.fr/actualites\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"lemonde.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542450+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2026/08/25/gabriel-attal-je-souhaite-une-loi-de-programmation-pour-l-ecole-et-un-ministre-de-l-education-qui-restera-en-poste-cinq-ans_6756157_823448.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"lemonde.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542457+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.lemonde.fr/societe/article/2026/08/25/gabriel-attal-je-souhaite-une-loi-de-programmation-pour-l-ecole-et-un-ministre-de-l-education-qui-restera-en-poste-cinq-ans_6756157_3224.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"x.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542464+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://x.com/GabrielAttal/status/2096687949253403009\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"lemonde.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542472+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2026/04/20/french-conservatives-select-bruno-retailleau-as-their-presidential-candidate_6752616_5.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"france24.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542479+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.france24.com/fr/france/20260620-pr%C3%A9sidentielle-2027-bruno-retailleau-lance-sa-campagne-aux-c%C3%B4t%C3%A9s-de-boualem-sansal\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"bfmtv.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542487+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/les-republicains/presidentielle-bruno-retailleau-ecarte-un-ralliement-a-gabriel-attal-ou-edouard-philippe-et-assure-qu-il-ira-jusqu-a-la-victoire_AV-202609060217.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"pourquijevote.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542494+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://pourquijevote.com/transcripts/99635688-2cc2-4154-93b3-69381c5e371c\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"x.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542501+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://x.com/BrunoRetailleau/status/2095452169054949885\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"elections.interieur.gouv.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542509+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/scrutins/lelection-presidentielle/election-presidentielle-je-suis-candidat\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"legifrance.gouv.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542516+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/loda/id/JORFTEXT000000684037\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"service-public.gouv.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542523+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.service-public.gouv.fr/particuliers/actualites/A15053\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"lcp.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542530+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://lcp.fr/actualites/marine-le-pen-condamnee-dans-l-affaire-des-assistants-parlementaires-reste-eligible-pour\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"lemonde.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542537+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/live/2026/07/08/en-direct-marine-le-pen-condamnee-en-appel-je-me-rejouis-que-marine-puisse-porter-nos-couleurs-declare-jordan-bardella-au-lancement-de-la-campagne-du-rn-dans-la-sarthe_6721429_823448.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"x.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542544+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://x.com/MLP_officiel/status/2074799483661975606\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"afp.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542551+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.afp.com/fr/bardella-reaffirme-son-affinite-politique-et-personnelle-indefectible-envers-marine-le-pen\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"lemonde.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542558+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2026/09/06/far-right-figure-bardella-is-uneasy-about-le-pen-s-election-platform-on-headscarves-and-pensions_6757203_5.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"courdecassation.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542565+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.courdecassation.fr/toutes-les-actualites/2026/07/08/affaire-dite-des-assistants-parlementaires-du-front-national\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"apnews.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542573+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://apnews.com/article/france-le-pen-macron-bardella-verdict-election-dcd2a305d01a87f13f1d7c81dffeee90\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"apnews.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:17:39.542588+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://apnews.com/article/le-pen-trial-macron-france-presidential-election-739c97682f1d0df341275b06d36b456f\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Claude Code\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:19:14.747079+00:00\",\"kind\":\"tool\",\"provider\":\"e2b\",\"snippet\":\"Job coding_whiz_job_a487aa0347 done after 475264ms.\",\"url\":null},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"raw.githubusercontent.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:19:14.747365+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/MieuxVoter/presidentielle2027/master/presidentielle2027.csv\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"github.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:19:14.747380+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://github.com/MieuxVoter/presidentielle2027\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"github.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:19:14.747389+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://github.com/nsppolls/nsppolls\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"raw.githubusercontent.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:19:14.747397+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nsppolls/nsppolls/master/presidentielle.json\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"French Elections\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T09:55:12.936321+00:00\",\"kind\":\"tool\",\"provider\":\"mcp\",\"snippet\":\"Dataset: 5901a718c751df3f49b29ff8 | Resource: Election présidentielle des 23 avril et 7 mai 2017 - Résultats définitifs du 1er tour par bureaux de vote | Granularity: commune | Total geographic units: 69242\",\"url\":null},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Politico eu Polls\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T09:55:12.936930+00:00\",\"kind\":\"tool\",\"provider\":\"mcp\",\"snippet\":\"CURRENT STANDINGS (Latest Trend):\",\"url\":null},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"en.wikipedia.org\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:01:33.763570+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_French_presidential_election\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"reuters.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:01:33.763587+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-court-shortens-le-pens-ban-office-orders-electronic-tag-2026-07-07\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"en.wikipedia.org\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:01:33.763594+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_French_Socialist_Party_presidential_primary\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Intentions de vote à l'élection présidentielle de 2027 - Septembre 2026\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:03:55.905874+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2026-09/presidentielle-2027-intention-vote-ipsos-bva-cesi-le-parisien-09-26-rapport-complet.pdf\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"elabe.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:03:55.906010+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://elabe.fr/fichier-pdf/13224-les-francais-et-lelection-presidentielle-2027\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Sondage OpinionWay du 3 septembre 2026 — Sondages 2027\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:03:55.906051+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://sondages2027.fr/sondages/opinionway-2026-09-03-1003\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Sondage Cluster17 du 1 septembre 2026 — Sondages 2027\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:03:55.906117+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://sondages2027.fr/sondages/cluster17-2026-09-01-1711\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Présidentielle 2027 : « Le comité de liaison a acté qu’il y avait sur la primaire un désaccord entre Edouard Philippe et Gabriel Attal »\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:03:55.906192+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.publicsenat.fr/actualites/politique/presidentielle-2027-le-comite-de-liaison-a-acte-quil-y-avait-sur-la-primaire-un-desaccord-entre-edouard-philippe-et-gabriel-attal\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"melenchon.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:03:55.906272+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://melenchon.fr/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/LETTRE-AU-PEUPLE-DE-FRANCE-.pdf\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Le processus de désignation du ou de la candidat·e socialiste à l'élection présidentielle est lancé - Parti Socialiste\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:03:55.906298+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://parti-socialiste.fr/actualites/choisir-2027-le-processus-de-designation-du-ou-de-la-candidat-e-socialiste-a-lelection-presidentielle-est-lance\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"2027 French presidential election: 'The strategic vote Mélenchon hopes for no longer means what it did in 2022'\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:03:55.906325+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2026/08/20/2027-french-presidential-election-the-strategic-vote-melenchon-hopes-for-no-longer-means-what-it-did-in-2022_6756702_23.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Élection présidentielle 2022 : les résultats du premier tour | info.gouv.fr\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:03:55.906347+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.info.gouv.fr/actualite/election-presidentielle-2022-les-resultats-du-premier-tour\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Marine Le Pen peut-elle vraiment être candidate à la présidentielle quel que soit le scénario, comme elle l’affirme ?\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:03:55.906388+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2026/07/08/marine-le-pen-peut-elle-vraiment-etre-candidate-a-la-presidentielle-quel-que-soit-le-scenario-comme-elle-l-affirme_6721783_4355770.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Smarkets\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T09:59:05.560502+00:00\",\"kind\":\"tool\",\"provider\":\"mcp\",\"snippet\":\"Smarkets political events matching 'french presidential' — 1 shown:\",\"url\":null},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Les Français et l'élection présidentielle 2027\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:09:42.322937+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://elabe.fr/presidentielle-2027-aout\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Déclaration de l’intergroupe de la France insoumise du 3 mai 2026 - La France insoumise\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:09:42.322959+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://lafranceinsoumise.fr/2026/05/03/declaration-de-lintergroupe-de-la-france-insoumise-du-3-mai-2026\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Raphaël Glucksmann - Sa lettre aux Français | Place publique\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:09:42.322977+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://place-publique.eu/posts/2fgDdljEIy36rgxBjRyiQZ/raphael-glucksmann-sa-lettre-aux-francais\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Gabriel Attal annonce sa candidature depuis l'Aveyron\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:09:42.322994+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://attalpresident.fr/actualites/annonce-de-candidature\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Bruno RETAILLEAU largement désigné comme candidat des Républicains pour l'élection présidentielle - Les Républicains\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:09:42.323011+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://republicains.fr/actualites/2026/04/20/bruno-retailleau-largement-designe-comme-candidat-des-republicains-pour-lelection-presidentielle\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Understanding the judges' ruling in Le Pen's appeal trial: Serious offenses, but light sentences\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:09:42.323059+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2026/07/08/understanding-the-judges-ruling-in-le-pen-s-appeal-trial-serious-offenses-but-light-sentences_6755270_5.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Presidential Election Barometer - Wave 5 - Ifop Group\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:05:52.085224+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.ifopgroup.com/en/article/presidential-election-barometer-wave-5\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Sondage Présidentielle 2027 pour Le Point : Jean-Luc Mélenchon et Edouard Philippe au coude-à-coude - Cluster17\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:05:52.085335+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://cluster17.com/sondage-presidentielle-2027-pour-le-point-jean-luc-melenchon-et-edouard-philippe-au-coude-a-coude\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"opinionway\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:05:52.085374+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2264\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Présidentielle 2027 : avec Marine Le Pen, Bruno Retailleau retrouve son adversaire « socialiste » préférée\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:05:52.085415+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2026/07/09/presidentielle-2027-avec-marine-le-pen-bruno-retailleau-retrouve-son-adversaire-socialiste-preferee_6722039_823448.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Présidentielle 2027 : l’hypothèse d’une primaire agite encore la droite et le bloc central\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:05:52.085453+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2026/09/08/presidentielle-2027-la-primaire-n-a-pas-encore-dit-son-dernier-mot-a-droite-et-dans-le-bloc-central_6768340_823448.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Présidentielle 2027 : Gabriel Attal officialise sa candidature en Aveyron en espérant s’éloigner de l’héritage d’Emmanuel Macron\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:05:52.085491+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2026/05/22/presidentielle-2027-gabriel-attal-officialise-sa-candidature-en-aveyron-en-esperant-s-eloigner-de-l-heritage-d-emmanuel-macron_6692277_823448.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Raphaël Glucksmann announces candidacy for France's 2027 presidential election\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:05:52.085608+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/article/2026/08/24/raphael-glucksmann-announces-candidacy-for-france-s-2027-presidential-election_6756792_5.html\"}],\"write_up\":\"## TL;DR\\n\\nI forecast **Marine Le Pen and Édouard Philippe at 43.2%**. **Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon is close at 38.0%** because Philippe leads when Gabriel Attal is absent, while Mélenchon usually moves ahead when both centrists run ([current polling data](https://github.com/MieuxVoter/presidentielle2027)). All other named pairs are below 8%, and I assign 7% to Any other pair, mainly for a Jordan Bardella substitution or an unexpected challenger.\\n\\n## Context\\n\\nMarine Le Pen leads every recent tested first-round configuration, generally near 34% and far ahead of the contenders for second place ([Ipsos](https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2026-09/presidentielle-2027-intention-vote-ipsos-bva-cesi-le-parisien-09-26-rapport-complet.pdf), [Ifop](https://www.ifopgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/122732-resultats-ensemble.pdf), [Elabe](https://elabe.fr/fichier-pdf/13224-les-francais-et-lelection-presidentielle-2027/), [Cluster17](https://cluster17.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/C17_Le_Point_Sondage_Election_Presidentielle_2027_Sep26-.pdf)). The forecast is conditional on a runoff. No current poll places any candidate close to a first-round majority.\\n\\nThe unresolved contest is behind her. Philippe, Attal and Retailleau are running separate campaigns, Mélenchon has an independent LFI candidacy, and Glucksmann must first win a social-democratic primary that does not bind LFI ([centre-right reporting](https://www.publicsenat.fr/actualites/politique/presidentielle-2027-la-main-tendue-dedouard-philippe-rejetee-par-gabriel-attal-et-bruno-retailleau-relance-lidee-dune-primaire), [LFI statement](https://lafranceinsoumise.fr/2026/05/03/declaration-de-lintergroupe-de-la-france-insoumise-du-3-mai-2026/), [PS primary rules](https://parti-socialiste.fr/actualites/choisir-2027-le-processus-de-designation-du-ou-de-la-candidat-e-socialiste-a-lelection-presidentielle-est-lance/)).\\n\\n## Evidence\\n\\nThe historical backbone is candidate-field instability. Seven months before the 2017 election, an Elabe survey tested eight slates. It placed Alain Juppé at 26%–34%, Le Pen at 25%–28%, Macron at 14%–18% and Mélenchon at 14%–15% ([September 2016 Elabe report](https://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/22092016_les_echos_radio_classique_intentions-de-vote-presidentielles_vague_3.pdf)). Juppé did not reach the election. The final top four were Macron at 24.01%, Le Pen at 21.30%, Fillon at 20.01% and Mélenchon at 19.58% ([official 2017 results](https://www.archives-resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/resultats/presidentielle-2017/FE.php)).\\n\\nThe 2022 cycle was even less stable. The table uses 31 first-round poll configurations fielded from August 22 through October 31, 2021, then compares their unweighted averages with the official April 10, 2022 result. Units are percentage points of expressed voting intentions; the polling vintage is the historical [NSPPolls dataset](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nsppolls/nsppolls/master/presidentielle.json), and the results are from the [Interior Ministry](https://www.archives-resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/resultats/presidentielle-2022/FE.php).\\n\\n| Candidate | Autumn 2021 average | Final result | Poll minus result |\\n|---|---:|---:|---:|\\n| Emmanuel Macron | 25.44% | 27.85% | -2.41 points |\\n| Marine Le Pen | 20.61% | 23.15% | -2.54 points |\\n| Valérie Pécresse | 11.74% | 4.78% | +6.96 points |\\n| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 9.20% | 21.95% | -12.75 points |\\n| Yannick Jadot | 7.96% | 4.63% | +3.33 points |\\n| Anne Hidalgo | 6.15% | 1.75% | +4.40 points |\\n\\nThe mean absolute error among candidates finishing above 4% was 5.60 points; the root-mean-square error was 6.85 points ([underlying polling records](https://github.com/nsppolls/nsppolls)). Mélenchon’s late consolidation and Pécresse’s collapse show why a one- or two-point lead now cannot be treated as durable. Candidate nomination and tactical voting mattered more than ordinary sampling error.\\n\\nCurrent polling has one stable result and one large interaction. The following sample-size-weighted averages cover 50 configurations from 13 surveys with fieldwork ending between July 1 and September 3, 2026. They are presence-conditional percentages, calculated from the [MieuxVoter polling file](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/MieuxVoter/presidentielle2027/master/presidentielle2027.csv).\\n\\n| Central-bloc configuration | Le Pen | Philippe | Mélenchon | Glucksmann | Attal | Retailleau |\\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|\\n| Philippe and Attal both run | 34.0% | 14.8% | 15.6% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% |\\n| Philippe runs without Attal | 33.7% | 19.0% | 16.3% | 11.2% | — | 7.6% |\\n| Attal runs without Philippe | 34.9% | — | 16.3% | 12.6% | 14.4% | 9.5% |\\n\\nAcross the full 168-configuration dataset, adding Attal to a Philippe slate is associated with a 5.05-point fall in Philippe’s support. Adding Philippe to an Attal slate is associated with a 6.36-point fall in Attal’s support ([data and scenario definitions](https://github.com/MieuxVoter/presidentielle2027)). These are observational effects because pollsters do not choose slates randomly. The direction is still clear: Philippe and Attal draw heavily from the same pool.\\n\\nThe latest direct surveys have effective voting-intention bases of roughly 680 to 1,211 respondents. Their indicative uncertainty around candidates polling near 15%–20% is about two to three points ([Ipsos notice](https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2262), [OpinionWay notice](https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2264), [Cluster17 notice](https://www.commission-des-sondages.fr/notices/medias/fichiers/add/2263)). The observed Philippe–Mélenchon gaps are therefore too small to settle the race.\\n\\nPolitical behavior slightly favors eventual consolidation, but less than a simple polling average suggests. Philippe proposed a right-and-centre coordination committee. Attal responded that selection should wait until early 2027. Retailleau’s campaign said there would be a Retailleau ballot in the first round ([September 9 reporting](https://www.publicsenat.fr/actualites/politique/presidentielle-2027-la-main-tendue-dedouard-philippe-rejetee-par-gabriel-attal-et-bruno-retailleau-relance-lidee-dune-primaire)). Retailleau also has a formal party mandate: 73.8% of participating LR members backed his designation, with 60.01% turnout ([LR results](https://republicains.fr/actualites/2026/04/20/bruno-retailleau-largement-designe-comme-candidat-des-republicains-pour-lelection-presidentielle/)).\\n\\nI assign 50% to Philippe facing no meaningful Attal candidacy, 36% to both remaining meaningful candidates, 5% to Attal running without Philippe, and 9% to another arrangement. I then blend current polling with moderate and high campaign volatility calibrated to the 2022 errors. Conditional on Le Pen qualifying, this gives 45.0% for Philippe as her opponent, 39.5% for Mélenchon, 8% for Glucksmann, 2% each for Attal and Retailleau, and 4% for someone else.\\n\\nThe calculation is:\\n\\n$$\\nP(\\\\text{Le Pen–X})=P(\\\\text{Le Pen qualifies})\\\\sum_s P(s)P(X\\\\text{ is second}\\\\mid s),\\n$$\\n\\nwhere \\\\(s\\\\) is the eventual candidate configuration. I assign Le Pen a 96.1% qualification probability. The Paris Court of Appeal left her firm ineligibility period already served, and she declared her candidacy, while the remaining exclusion scenario is described as marginal and legally disputed ([court reporting](https://lcp.fr/actualites/marine-le-pen-condamnee-dans-l-affaire-des-assistants-parlementaires-reste-eligible-pour), [legal analysis](https://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2026/07/08/marine-le-pen-peut-elle-vraiment-etre-candidate-a-la-presidentielle-quel-que-soit-le-scenario-comme-elle-l-affirme_6721783_4355770.html)). Most of the residual risk is a legal, health or strategic replacement by Bardella. Such an outcome normally resolves as Any other pair.\\n\\n## What's non-obvious\\n\\n**The published polling average mixes different elections.** Philippe’s roughly 19% score without Attal and his roughly 15% score with Attal are often placed in one average. They should instead be treated as separate branches. The first makes Philippe the favorite for second. The second makes Mélenchon the favorite or produces a statistical tie.\\n\\nGlucksmann’s primary does not create left unity. Mélenchon remains outside it, and Glucksmann trails him in every fresh joint test ([Ipsos](https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2026-09/presidentielle-2027-intention-vote-ipsos-bva-cesi-le-parisien-09-26-rapport-complet.pdf), [Cluster17](https://cluster17.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/C17_Le_Point_Sondage_Election_Presidentielle_2027_Sep26-.pdf)). Conversely, straight polling underrates Mélenchon’s upside: he gained almost 13 points from the comparable 2021 polling window to the 2022 election. I do not assume a full repeat, but it keeps Le Pen–Mélenchon close to the modal outcome.\\n\\n## Uncertainties\\n\\n- The largest gap is the absence of a binding selection rule for Philippe and Attal. A signed withdrawal agreement, primary rules or a clear polling-based threshold would move the forecast sharply.\\n- No fresh survey tests Glucksmann without Mélenchon. Polling after the October social-democratic primary would show whether Glucksmann can consolidate Greens, Socialists and former Macron voters ([primary timetable](https://parti-socialiste.fr/actualites/choisir-2027-le-processus-de-designation-du-ou-de-la-candidat-e-socialiste-a-lelection-presidentielle-est-lance/)).\\n- Le Pen’s cassation proceedings create a small but asymmetric risk because a Bardella replacement sends almost every likely runoff to Any other pair. I could not verify a public full-text copy of the July 7 appellate judgment; the legal estimate relies on court reporting and published legal analysis.\\n- The polls use online quota samples and politically weighted likely-voter subsets. They describe current preferences, not future outcomes. Repeated identical-slate polls, candidate sponsorship data and post-primary voter-flow tables would narrow the remaining uncertainty.\"},\"engine\":{\"metadata\":{\"engine\":\"durable_forecast\",\"model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"model_route\":{\"deadline_seconds\":2400,\"managed_tools\":true,\"max_attempts\":2,\"metadata\":{},\"model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"native_code_execution\":true,\"native_web_search\":true,\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"},\"orchestration_backend\":\"durable_forecast\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"question_type\":\"multiple_choice\"},\"settings\":{\"claude_runtime\":\"e2b\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"high\",\"subforecast_count\":4,\"subforecast_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"synthesis_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"synthesis_reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"}},\"forecast\":{\"callsign\":\"ENVOY-APEX-WAYPOINT-01\",\"created_at\":\"2026-09-10T09:53:11.618677+00:00\",\"forecast_task_id\":\"32666986-d1da-4818-a188-2e7491f954c6\",\"id\":\"db5af57b-23b1-4616-ae2c-ec69cad0992e\",\"orchestrator_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"question_version_id\":\"b85a0526-24df-4689-bdb2-0a18c080ae5f\",\"research_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"trigger_kind\":\"manual\"},\"issuer\":\"Preseen\",\"product\":\"Preseen\",\"question\":{\"callsign\":\"ENVOY-APEX-WAYPOINT\",\"description\":\"This question asks which pair of candidates will qualify for the second round of the 2027 French presidential election, conditional on a second round being required. Under Article 7 of the French Constitution, a candidate who obtains an absolute majority of votes cast in the first round is elected; otherwise a second round is held between the two leading candidates. ([legifrance.gouv.fr](https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/loda/article_lc/LEGIARTI000006527466)) As of September 10, 2026, Marine Le Pen is the Rassemblement National (RN) candidate after the Paris Court of Appeal's July 7 ruling allowed her to run in 2027. ([lemonde.fr](https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2026/07/09/presidentielle-2027-avec-marine-le-pen-bruno-retailleau-retrouve-son-adversaire-socialiste-preferee_6722039_823448.html)) Current polling places the RN well ahead at the first round, while the contest for the other second-round position is much less settled. Recent polling has identified Édouard Philippe, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, and Gabriel Attal among the principal contenders behind the RN candidate, with some recent discussion focusing especially on a possible Le Pen–Mélenchon runoff. ([ipsos.com](https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/presidentielle-2027-les-candidats-du-rassemblement-national-largement-en-tete-au-premier-tour))\",\"fine_print\":\"Candidate pairs are unordered: for example, “Marine Le Pen and Édouard Philippe” covers a runoff between those two candidates regardless of which finishes first in the first round. “Any other pair” covers every possible pair not explicitly listed, including a pair containing one explicitly named contender and another person not paired with them below. Qualification, rather than actually appearing on a second-round ballot, controls resolution; thus a subsequent withdrawal, death, incapacity, or other event after the two qualifiers have been officially determined does not by itself change the outcome, unless the Conseil constitutionnel invalidates that qualification or orders the electoral process restarted under applicable constitutional rules. ([legifrance.gouv.fr](https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/loda/article_lc/LEGIARTI000006527466))\",\"id\":\"9a5c346c-5495-4efb-ad1b-9ece26c2b398\",\"lower_bound\":null,\"open_lower_bound\":false,\"open_upper_bound\":false,\"options\":[\"Marine Le Pen and Édouard Philippe\",\"Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon\",\"Marine Le Pen and Raphaël Glucksmann\",\"Marine Le Pen and Gabriel Attal\",\"Marine Le Pen and Bruno Retailleau\",\"Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon\",\"Édouard Philippe and Raphaël Glucksmann\",\"Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal\",\"Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Raphaël Glucksmann\",\"Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Gabriel Attal\",\"Any other pair\"],\"options_are_comprehensive\":true,\"options_are_mutually_exclusive\":true,\"question_type\":\"multiple_choice\",\"resolution_check_date\":null,\"resolution_criteria\":\"Each option resolves YES if and only if the two named people in that option are the two candidates officially qualified to contest the second round of the 2027 French presidential election. All other options resolve NO. The authoritative resolution source will be the official results/proclamation of the French Constitutional Council (Conseil constitutionnel). Because the question is explicitly conditional on there being a runoff, it will be annulled if no second round is required, including if a candidate wins an absolute majority of votes cast in the first round. It will also be annulled if the 2027 presidential election is cancelled or otherwise does not produce an official first-round result from which second-round qualifiers can be determined. If exceptional circumstances cause the first-round election to be rerun before a second round is held, the question will resolve from the last valid first round that actually determines the candidates for the second round. This treatment is consistent with Article 7's provisions for restarting electoral operations in certain cases involving the death or incapacity of a leading candidate. ([legifrance.gouv.fr](https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/loda/article_lc/LEGIARTI000006527466))\",\"scale_type\":\"\",\"title\":\"If there is a run-off in the coming French presidential election who will the two candidates be?\",\"upper_bound\":null},\"question_version\":{\"created_at\":\"2026-09-10T09:53:11.279081+00:00\",\"created_reason\":\"question_created\",\"id\":\"b85a0526-24df-4689-bdb2-0a18c080ae5f\",\"version_number\":1},\"receipt_kind\":\"forecast_attestation\",\"receipt_schema_version\":1,\"signature_context\":{\"key_source\":\"configured\",\"public_key_id\":\"preseen-prod-ed25519-20260523\",\"signature_algorithm\":\"ed25519\",\"signed_at\":\"2026-09-10T10:23:04.122955+00:00\"}}","verification":{"valid":true,"error":""},"created_at":"2026-09-10T10:23:04.131124+00:00","updated_at":"2026-09-10T10:23:04.564126+00:00"}}