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Pace\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:33:29.580955+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/Global-Humanoid-Robot-Installations-Reach-16%2C000-Units-in-2025-as-Mass-Production-Picks-Pace\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"my.idc.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:28:40.946771+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://my.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=CHE54229626\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"news.cgtn.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:28:40.946783+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://news.cgtn.com/news/2026-01-24/IDC-report-China-leads-the-global-humanoid-robot-rise-in-2025-1KccOGZyVGM/index.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"1x.tech\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:28:40.946794+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.1x.tech/discover/neo-home-robot\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"benzinga.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:28:40.946815+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/06/45996879\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"goldmansachs.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:28:40.946827+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-global-market-for-robots-could-reach-38-billion-by-2035\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"morganstanley.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:28:40.946837+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/humanoid-robot-market-5-trillion-by-2050\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"citigroup.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:28:40.946866+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.citigroup.com/global/insights/the-rise-of-ai-robots\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"ifr.org\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:28:40.946886+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"tool\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://ifr.org/img/worldrobotics/Executive_Summary_WR_2025_Industrial_Robots.pdf\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Humanoid Robotics Commercialization Trends 2026\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:33:29.581003+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.idc.com/resource-center/blog/humanoid-robotics-commercialization-2026\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"AGIBOT tops the global humanoid robot shipments ranking | Gasgoo\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:33:29.581073+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://autonews.gasgoo.com/articles/news/2009638041914548225\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"China rushes to build humanoid robots, but who will buy them? | AP News\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:33:29.581197+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://apnews.com/article/7d542b5ee92caa9d79efa28de89afbbe\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"merics.org\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:33:29.581275+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://merics.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/MER-RZ-Report-Embodied-AI-260422-Web.pdf\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Scaling the humanoid robotics supply chain into billion-dollar wins | McKinsey\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:33:29.581349+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/industrials/our-insights/turning-humanoid-supply-chain-constraints-into-billion-dollar-wins\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"25 September 2025, 17:27 UTC\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:33:29.581419+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealthmanagement/insights/chief-investment-office/house-view/2025/weekly-key-messages/_jcr_content/root/contentarea/mainpar/toplevelgrid_1825995/col_2/textimage_copy_442954538.1214467702.file/dGV4dD0vY29udGVudC9kYW0vYXNzZXRzL3dtL2dsb2JhbC9jaW8vaG91c2Utdmlldy9kb2N1bWVudC9lcXVpdHktbWFya2V0cy1lbi0xNjQ1OTM2LnBkZg%3D%3D/equity-markets-en-1645936.pdf\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Humanoid robots seen as $5 trillion global opportunity at Morgan Stanley By Investing.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:33:29.581528+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/humanoids-seen-as-5-trillion-global-opportunity-at-morgan-stanley-4010886\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"World Robotics 2025 report – INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS – released by IFR - International Federation of Robotics\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:33:29.581652+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://ifr.org/news/global-robot-demand-in-factories-doubles-over-10-years/1st-\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"World Robotics 2025 report – SERVICE ROBOTS – released by IFR - International Federation of Robotics\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:33:29.581691+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://ifr.org/news/service-robots-see-global-growth-boom/1st-\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Humanoid robot production surges tenfold in 2025, but commercial deployments remain limited\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:13:38.086142+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://interact-analysis.prezly.com/humanoid-robot-production-surges-tenfold-in-2025-but-commercial-deployments-remain-limited\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Unitree Ranks No.1 Globally in Humanoid Robot Shipments, Exceeding 5,500 Units in 2025\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:13:38.086166+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/unitree-ranks-no1-globally-in-humanoid-robot-shipments-exceeding-5-500-units-in-2025--302674729.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"今年我国人形机器人整机产量有望突破10万台-新华网\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:13:38.086188+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.news.cn/20260707/a2287f0e6d424640b126479e06b697da/c.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Artificial intelligence | UBS Global\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:13:38.086221+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.ubs.com/global/en/sustainability-impact/our-insights/artificial-intelligence.html\"}],\"write_up\":\"## TL;DR\\nMy median forecast is **9.8 million** qualifying humanoid robots worldwide at the end of 2035. The central 80% range is 2.6 million to 33.5 million, with a 1.2% chance of more than 100 million. The market is already scaling in hardware, but the final count will be set by whether demand and autonomy keep growing after research, entertainment, and state-backed buying saturate.\\n\\n## Context\\nI treat a qualifying robot as a complete biped with a torso, two arms, and two legs, plus autonomous or semi-autonomous control. I exclude wheel-base torso-and-arm machines. That is narrower than the [IFR's 2026 survey definition](https://ifr.org/img/worldrobotics/IFR_Questionnaire_on_Humaniods.pdf), which permits either legs or wheels and asks suppliers for installations where possible and shipments otherwise.\\n\\nThe starting stock is tiny relative to the forecast. [Omdia counted 13,318 worldwide shipments in 2025](https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3339346/chinese-firms-outpace-us-rivals-2025-humanoid-robot-shipments-agibot-takes-lead), while [Counterpoint counted about 16,000 installations](https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/Global-Humanoid-Robot-Installations-Reach-16%2C000-Units-in-2025-as-Mass-Production-Picks-Pace). The gap reflects scope and timing. [Unitree alone says it delivered more than 5,500 pure humanoid robots in 2025](https://shop.unitree.com/blogs/news/clarification-regarding-unitrees-2025-sales-data), which confirms that strict bipedal deliveries were already in the thousands.\\n\\n## Evidence\\nThe closest mature reference class is the industrial robot. The [IFR recorded 542,076 new industrial-robot installations and a 4,663,698-unit operational stock in 2024](https://ifr.org/img/worldrobotics/Executive_Summary_WR_2025_Industrial_Robots.pdf). Annual installations had more than doubled over the preceding decade. A 9.8 million humanoid stock by 2035 would exceed today's industrial-robot fleet, but humanoids can be sold into research, education, entertainment, government, services, and homes as well as factories. The reference class makes a multi-million total credible, not automatic.\\n\\nThe freshest production data pushes the near-term path upward. A Chinese industry official said [China produced about 20,000 humanoids in 2025, exceeded 40,000 in the first half of 2026, and expected more than 100,000 for full-year 2026](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202607/23/WS6a6164c6a310986e2b466c71.html). Those are output figures, not audited in-scope installations. They can include wheeled models, inventory, and units awaiting integration. I translate them into a central estimate of 85,000 qualifying worldwide shipments in 2026, with scenario values from 50,000 to 130,000.\\n\\nPublished long-range forecasts span more than an order of magnitude. They are best used as scenario anchors, not averaged.\\n\\n| Source | Forecast | Scope issue |\\n|---|---:|---|\\n| [Interact Analysis, May 2026](https://interact-analysis.prezly.com/humanoid-robot-revenue-to-reach-15bn-by-2035) | More than 700,000 annual shipments in 2035 | Conservative commercial path; inflection around 2032 |\\n| [Goldman Sachs, February 2024](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-global-market-for-robots-could-reach-38-billion-by-2035) | More than 250,000 in 2030 and 1.4 million in 2035 | Older vintage, before the 2025–2026 China ramp |\\n| [Omdia, January 2026](https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3339346/chinese-firms-outpace-us-rivals-2025-humanoid-robot-shipments-agibot-takes-lead) | 2.6 million in 2035 | Public summary does not cleanly isolate strict bipeds |\\n| [Yano Research, April 2026](https://www.yanoresearch.com/en/press-release/show/press_id/4111) | 7.18 million in 2035 | Explicitly includes wheeled and bipedal humanoids |\\n| [Bank of America, March 2026](https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/transformation/physical-ai-part-2.pdf) | 1.2 million in 2030 and 10 million in 2035 | High-adoption shipment path |\\n\\nThe strongest brake is demand quality. [IDC says more than 85% of 2025 deployments were in performance, education, data collection, and guided-tour uses](https://www.idc.com/resource-center/blog/humanoid-robotics-commercialization-2026/). [Interact Analysis estimates only about 10% of 2025 production reached real-world applications](https://interact-analysis.prezly.com/humanoid-robot-production-surges-tenfold-in-2025-but-commercial-deployments-remain-limited). [Gartner expects fewer than 20 companies to reach live production use in manufacturing and supply chains by 2028](https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2026-01-21-gartner-predicts-fewer-than-20-companies-will-scale-humanoid-robots-for-manufacturing-and-supply-chain-to-production-stage-by-2028), and says purpose-built wheeled systems often provide higher uptime and throughput per dollar. This blocks a simple extrapolation of the 2025–2026 growth rate.\\n\\nI model annual qualifying shipments, interpolate geometrically between 2026, 2030, and 2035, then sum surviving cohorts. The calculation starts with 15,000 qualifying shipments in 2025 and 5,000 older complete robots. I use 98% annual physical survival. That is gentler than an operational-stock rule because the question counts idle complete robots; the [IFR's industrial method assumes a 12-year operational life, while noting that 15 years may fit some robots and low-cost units may last under five](https://ifr.org/img/worldrobotics/Sources___Methods_WR_2025_Industrial_Robots.pdf).\\n\\n| Scenario | Weight | 2030 annual shipments | 2035 annual shipments | End-2035 stock median |\\n|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|\\n| Prolonged niche market | 12% | 0.18m | 0.50m | 2.13m |\\n| Conservative scaling | 20% | 0.35m | 1.20m | 4.54m |\\n| Base commercialization | 38% | 0.70m | 3.00m | 10.17m |\\n| Rapid industrial and service adoption | 22% | 1.25m | 7.00m | 21.28m |\\n| Early broad-service or consumer breakout | 7% | 2.20m | 18.00m | 48.12m |\\n| Extreme mass-market acceleration | 1% | 3.50m | 40.00m | 97.07m |\\n\\nI place a lognormal uncertainty band around each scenario and combine them by the listed weights. The resulting mean is 16.0 million, above the 9.8 million median because the breakout tail is large. The 25th and 75th percentiles are 5.0 million and 18.1 million; the 10th and 90th percentiles are 2.6 million and 33.5 million.\\n\\n## What's non-obvious\\n**Low productive use does not mean low installed stock.** The resolution counts research robots, entertainment units, data-collection fleets, and idle complete machines. The weak deployment data should reduce forecasts of repeat orders after the novelty and subsidy phase; it should not be used to subtract most early shipments from the stock.\\n\\nThe other hidden issue is the wheel-versus-leg boundary. The [IFR survey](https://ifr.org/img/worldrobotics/IFR_Questionnaire_on_Humaniods.pdf) and [Yano forecast](https://www.yanoresearch.com/en/press-release/show/press_id/4111) include wheeled humanoids, while this forecast excludes wheel-base torso machines. A future headline saying “seven million humanoids” could therefore map to a smaller qualifying stock. This definitional adjustment is one reason my median sits below the optimistic industry paths.\\n\\n## Limitations\\nNo authoritative worldwide installed-base series exists yet. Current sources mix production, shipments, installations, and robots in productive use; the [IFR itself explains why shipment and installation dates can differ](https://ifr.org/img/worldrobotics/Sources___Methods_WR_2025_Industrial_Robots.pdf). Public market summaries also use different body-form and autonomy rules.\\n\\nPhysical retirement is almost unmeasured. A broken robot can remain complete and count, while a commercially obsolete robot may be dismantled for parts. Survival changes the result less than adoption because most units in the central and high paths are built after 2030.\\n\\nThe long-range forecasts are correlated. They draw on many of the same vendor plans, policy targets, cost curves, and technical demonstrations. The numerical distribution is conditional on the question receiving a numerical resolution rather than being annulled; the bucket format has no annulment outcome.\"},\"engine\":{\"metadata\":{\"engine\":\"durable_forecast\",\"model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"model_route\":{\"deadline_seconds\":2400,\"managed_tools\":true,\"max_attempts\":2,\"metadata\":{},\"model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"native_code_execution\":true,\"native_web_search\":true,\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"},\"orchestration_backend\":\"durable_forecast\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"question_type\":\"numeric\"},\"settings\":{\"claude_runtime\":\"e2b\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"high\",\"subforecast_count\":4,\"subforecast_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"synthesis_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"synthesis_reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"}},\"forecast\":{\"callsign\":\"INDEX23-01\",\"created_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:05:22.752562+00:00\",\"forecast_task_id\":\"db971f75-fdf3-46f2-bf2f-11b3d91e8b07\",\"id\":\"a8eac514-80e1-4b1b-a292-23c50b7dedab\",\"orchestrator_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"question_version_id\":\"3c1ae995-9cc4-47bf-a1d3-7b9c5e2e164c\",\"research_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"trigger_kind\":\"manual\"},\"issuer\":\"Preseen\",\"product\":\"Preseen\",\"question\":{\"callsign\":\"INDEX23\",\"description\":\"Forecast the total worldwide installed base of humanoid robots that exist at the end of the calendar day on December 31, 2035. For this question, a humanoid robot is a physically embodied robot with a human-like body plan (typically including a torso, two arms, and two legs) that is capable of autonomous or semi-autonomous operation. Count all qualifying humanoid robots worldwide regardless of whether they are deployed commercially, used in research, owned by consumers, operated by governments, or temporarily idle, provided they still exist as complete robots and have not been permanently dismantled or destroyed.\\n\\nAs of 2025-2026, humanoid robotics remains an early-stage industry, with only thousands to tens of thousands of units reportedly deployed globally depending on the definition used. The International Federation of Robotics (IFR) has begun collecting dedicated statistics on humanoid robots and notes that definitions vary across market reports, making careful specification important. ([ifr.org](https://ifr.org/pages/))\",\"fine_print\":\"Included:\\n- Bipedal humanoid robots intended for industrial, commercial, research, government, defense, healthcare, education, or consumer use.\\n- Robots that are temporarily out of service but still exist as complete robots.\\n\\nExcluded:\\n- Purely virtual agents.\\n- Prosthetic limbs, exoskeletons, telepresence devices without humanoid robotic embodiment, robotic arms, quadrupeds, wheeled service robots lacking a humanoid body plan, and fictional robots.\\n- Robots that have been permanently dismantled or destroyed before 2035-12-31.\\n\\nIf no authoritative estimate can reasonably be constructed from the specified sources by 2037-12-31, the question should be annulled rather than resolved using speculation.\",\"id\":\"477a973d-3fbb-4b3a-8208-6eaaca51f9db\",\"lower_bound\":\"0\",\"open_lower_bound\":false,\"open_upper_bound\":true,\"options\":[],\"options_are_comprehensive\":true,\"options_are_mutually_exclusive\":true,\"question_type\":\"numeric\",\"resolution_check_date\":null,\"resolution_criteria\":\"Resolve to the best available estimate of the worldwide installed base of qualifying humanoid robots existing on 2035-12-31.\\n\\nPrimary resolution source: the latest applicable International Federation of Robotics (IFR) humanoid robot statistics or other IFR publication released after 2035, if it explicitly reports or allows determination of the worldwide installed base. ([ifr.org](https://ifr.org/pages/))\\n\\nIf the IFR does not publish a suitable worldwide installed-base figure, resolve using a consensus estimate synthesized from at least two reputable industry research organizations (for example Counterpoint Research, Omdia, IDC, ABI Research, Gartner, or equivalent) together with publicly reported manufacturer shipment data where necessary. The published estimate closest in scope to the definition above should be used.\\n\\nThe resolved value is the estimated number of qualifying humanoid robots worldwide, not cumulative lifetime production or annual shipments. Round to the nearest whole robot.\",\"scale_type\":\"linear\",\"title\":\"How many humanoid robots will there be worldwide at the end of 2035?\",\"upper_bound\":\"100000000\"},\"question_version\":{\"created_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:05:19.262320+00:00\",\"created_reason\":\"question_created\",\"id\":\"3c1ae995-9cc4-47bf-a1d3-7b9c5e2e164c\",\"version_number\":1},\"receipt_kind\":\"forecast_attestation\",\"receipt_schema_version\":1,\"signature_context\":{\"key_source\":\"configured\",\"public_key_id\":\"preseen-prod-ed25519-20260523\",\"signature_algorithm\":\"ed25519\",\"signed_at\":\"2026-07-23T03:53:57.448559+00:00\"}}","verification":{"valid":true,"error":""},"created_at":"2026-07-23T03:53:57.455400+00:00","updated_at":"2026-07-23T03:53:57.869130+00:00"}}