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ABI\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-08-20T08:38:01.555084+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://abi.bo/alp-ratifica-con-mas-de-dos-tercios-el-estado-de-excepcion-y-respalda-medidas-del-gobierno\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Conoce los requisitos y el sistema electoral para las revocatorias de mandato | Órgano Electoral Plurinacional\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-08-20T08:38:01.555163+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://web.oep.org.bo/institucional-institucional/conoce-los-requisitos-y-el-sistema-electoral-para-las-revocatorias-de-mandato\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Gob.bo\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-08-20T08:38:01.555189+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://presidencia.gob.bo/index.php/nota_prensa/presidente-paz-posesiona-al-nuevo-alto-mando-militar-y-anuncia-una-etapa-de-modernizacion-y-mayor-cercania-con-la-poblacion\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"El 78 % respalda el estado de excepción y el 45% rechaza el acuerdo firmado por el Gobierno con la COB | Visión 360\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-08-20T08:38:01.555212+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.vision360.bo/amp/noticias/2026/07/02/56254-el-78-por_ciento-respalda-el-estado-de-excepcion-y-el-45por_ciento-rechaza-el-acuerdo-firmado-por-el-gobierno-con-la-cob\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Bolivia (Plurinational State of) Chamber of Deputies August 2025 Election | Election results | Bolivia (Plurinational State of) | IPU Parline: global data on national parliaments\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-08-20T08:38:01.555276+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://data.ipu.org/parliament/BO/BO-LC01/election/BO-LC01-E20250817\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Empresario Doria Medina retira apoyo a Paz y dice que le preocupa \\\"corrupción\\\" en Bolivia - Infobae\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-08-20T08:38:01.555321+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2026/08/02/empresario-doria-medina-retira-apoyo-a-paz-y-dice-que-le-preocupa-corrupcion-en-bolivia?outputType=amp-type\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Censura del ministro Espinoza en el Legislativo se encamina a una “batalla constitucional” | Visión 360\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-08-20T08:38:01.555345+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.vision360.bo/noticias/2026/08/19/63493-censura-del-ministro-espinoza-en-el-legislativo-se-encamina-a-una-batalla-constitucional\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement with Bolivia on an Extended Fund Facility Arrangement\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-08-20T08:38:01.555369+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/29/pr26268-bolivia-imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-on-an-extended-fund-facility-arrangement\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Presidente ratifica que el estado de excepción es por 90 días y pide acción firme de la justicia - ABI\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-08-20T08:38:01.555414+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://abi.bo/presidente-ratifica-que-el-estado-de-excepcion-es-por-90-dias-y-pide-accion-firme-de-la-justicia\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Bolivia: Chronology of Presidents\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-08-20T08:38:01.555475+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://pdba.georgetown.edu/Executive/Bolivia/pres.html\"}],\"write_up\":\"## TL;DR\\n\\nI assign an **80%** probability that Rodrigo Paz Pereira remains continuously President of Bolivia through December 31, 2026. He is favored because he survived the [50-plus-day resignation campaign](https://elpais.com/america/2026-06-20/paz-decreta-el-estado-de-excepcion-en-bolivia-horas-despues-de-firmar-el-acuerdo-de-pacificacion.html), the roads reopened, parliament [ratified the emergency](https://www.noticiasfides.com/nacional/politica/queda-vigente-el-estado-de-excepcion-la-asamblea-legislativa-aprueba-la-medida-del-gobierno-de-rodrigo-paz), and the military high command has since [defended the elected government](https://www.lostiempos.com/actualidad/pais/20260807/comandante-ffaa-ratifica-que-defendera-estabilidad-del-gobierno-voluntad). The main loss path is a September-October cascade in which [post-emergency blockades return](https://radiosplendid.bo/2026/08/12/paz-aun-no-define-si-ampliara-el-estado-de-excepcion-mientras-sectores-anuncian-nuevas-protestas/), the [Cerimedo allegations](https://elpais.com/america/2026-08-19/la-detencion-de-un-consultor-de-ultraderecha-acusado-de-intento-de-feminicidio-activa-denuncias-de-corrupcion-en-bolivia-y-argentina.html) reach Paz directly, opposition leaders align, and the security forces stop acting as his shield.\\n\\n## Context\\n\\nAs of August 20, 2026, Bolivia's [official presidency page](https://presidencia.gob.bo/index.php/presidente-de-bolivia/) still lists Paz as president and records that he took office on November 8, 2025. I found no evidence of a prior interruption that would already resolve the question NO.\\n\\nThe May-June movement demanded his resignation and blocked roads for more than 50 days. Paz reached an agreement with the COB on June 19 and declared a 90-day state of exception on June 20; by July 3, the Ombudsman's monitoring report recorded [no active roadblocks affecting free movement](https://www.defensoria.gob.bo/uploads/files/monitoreo-defensorial-del-estado-de-excepcion-reporte-04-2026-20-de-junio-al-03-de-julio-2026.pdf). The government is now functioning, but with low approval, an estranged vice president, an unstable legislative coalition and new fuel-related grievances. ([elpais.com](https://elpais.com/america/2026-06-20/paz-decreta-el-estado-de-excepcion-en-bolivia-horas-despues-de-firmar-el-acuerdo-de-pacificacion.html))\\n\\n## Evidence\\n\\nThe historical prior is much safer than the headlines suggest. A comparative study covering 1990-2023 found [24 interrupted presidencies among 125 elected Latin American presidents](https://dialnet.unirioja.es/descarga/articulo/10049044.pdf), or 19.2% over complete terms; Bolivia recorded three interruptions among six presidencies, though that national sample is tiny. Scaling those full-term rates to the remaining 134 days under a constant-hazard assumption gives roughly 2% NO from the regional reference class and 5% from Bolivia. These are floors, not forecasts: the current combination of divided government and social crisis is exactly the setting the study associates with elevated interruption risk. ([dialnet.unirioja.es](https://dialnet.unirioja.es/descarga/articulo/10049044.pdf))\\n\\nFormal removal routes are narrow. The [Bolivian Constitution](https://www.senapi.gob.bo/normativas/constitucion-politica-del-estado/constitucion-politica-del-estado-plurinacional-de-bolivia) says a president's mandate ends through death, resignation, definitive incapacity or absence, a final criminal conviction, or recall; recall cannot begin until half the five-year term has elapsed. Ministerial censure is not a presidential no-confidence vote. Paz's PDC holds [49 deputies and 16 senators](https://unitel.bo/noticias/asi-decidimos/tse-define-escanos-legislativos-pdc-lidera-con-65-curules-seguido-de-libre-y-unidad-PE17132915), or 65 of 166 Assembly seats, so he lacks a majority but his opponents also need a broad coalition to force a constitutional outcome. ([senapi.gob.bo](https://www.senapi.gob.bo/normativas/constitucion-politica-del-estado/constitucion-politica-del-estado-plurinacional-de-bolivia))\\n\\nThe August 18 vote against Economy Minister José Gabriel Espinoza is therefore a warning, not a removal mechanism. [Ninety-one of 129 legislators present voted for censure](https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/bolivia-lawmakers-force-economy-ministers-184838066.html); the government argues that the Constitution required 111 votes, two-thirds of all 166 legislators. The vote shows that a large anti-government majority can form around a minister. It does not yet show agreement on ending Paz's presidency.\\n\\nThe full 2026 demonstration series through the cutoff contains 928 recorded events in the [weekly updated ACLED aggregated dataset](https://acleddata.com/conflict-data/download-data-files/aggregated-data). August is partial through August 20; these are coded demonstration events, not unique protest days or participant counts.\\n\\n| Month | Demonstration events |\\n|---|---:|\\n| January 2026 | 270 |\\n| February 2026 | 97 |\\n| March 2026 | 109 |\\n| April 2026 | 166 |\\n| May 2026 | 215 |\\n| June 2026 | 45 |\\n| July 2026 | 22 |\\n| August 1-20, 2026 | 4 |\\n\\nThe fall after May is large and matches the official record of reopened roads. But it is not proof that the grievances disappeared. The state of exception raises the cost of remobilizing, while transport, peasant and labor organizations have [threatened renewed action after it ends](https://radiosplendid.bo/2026/08/12/paz-aun-no-define-si-ampliara-el-estado-de-excepcion-mientras-sectores-anuncian-nuevas-protestas/). Vice President Edmand Lara also described the settlement as a [pause rather than the end of the conflict](https://www.vision360.bo/noticias/2026/06/23/54604-el-vicepresidente-lara-advierte-a-paz-que-el-conflicto-no-se-cerro-y-que-la-pausa-la-puso-el-pueblo). ([acleddata.com](https://acleddata.com/conflict-data/download-data-files/aggregated-data))\\n\\nThe strongest survival signal is the security apparatus. Police and military forces obeyed the June deployment orders, and parliament approved the emergency by more than two-thirds of those present. On August 7, armed-forces commander Víctor Hugo Balderrama said the military and police would [protect the stability of the democratically elected government](https://www.lostiempos.com/actualidad/pais/20260807/comandante-ffaa-ratifica-que-defendera-estabilidad-del-gobierno-voluntad). That is backed by revealed behavior, not just ceremony. Bolivia's recent presidential collapses required a wider cascade than protests alone, including political isolation and security-force withdrawal. ([lostiempos.com](https://www.lostiempos.com/actualidad/pais/20260807/comandante-ffaa-ratifica-que-defendera-estabilidad-del-gobierno-voluntad))\\n\\nPaz still has several live vulnerabilities. An Ipsos CIESMORI online survey of [400 adults in four major urban areas](https://www.vision360.bo/noticias/2026/08/05/61432-paz-y-lara-bajan-en-sus-niveles-de-aprobacion-y-escalan-en-la-desaprobacion-de-la-gestion), fielded July 23-August 2, put him at 32% approval and 55% disapproval; Lara was weaker at 12% approval and 75% disapproval. Samuel Doria Medina [ended his alliance with the government on July 27](https://www.noticiasfides.com/nacional/politica/samuel-oficializa-la-ruptura-con-paz-desde-hoy-unidad-nacional-y-el-gobierno-seguimos-caminos-separados), though he also said his bloc would not conspire against presidential stability. On August 19, Jorge Quiroga, Doria Medina and Manfred Reyes Villa were preparing a [meeting to decide their common posture](https://www.vision360.bo/noticias/2026/08/19/63499-reyes-villa-tuto-y-doria-medina-alistan-cumbre-politica-para-definir-si-respaldan-al-gobierno-o-lo-dejan-solo). ([vision360.bo](https://www.vision360.bo/noticias/2026/08/05/61432-paz-y-lara-bajan-en-sus-niveles-de-aprobacion-y-escalan-en-la-desaprobacion-de-la-gestion))\\n\\nEconomics cuts both ways. Official data published August 4 showed July CPI falling [2.79% month over month, with 4.93% inflation over 12 months](https://www.ine.gob.bo/index.php/el-indice-de-precios-al-consumidor-disminuyo-279-en-bolivia-durante-julio-de-2026/), largely because food distribution normalized after the blockades. The July 29 [US$1.9 billion IMF staff-level agreement](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/07/29/pr26268-bolivia-imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-on-an-extended-fund-facility-arrangement) gives Paz a possible stabilization path, but remains contingent on prior actions and IMF Executive Board approval. On August 17, the government set a [Bs 18 per liter reference price for direct and large diesel consumers](https://efe.com/economia/2026-08-17/bolivia-subvencion-precio-diesel-consumidores-combustible/), versus Bs 9.80 for smaller users. This may improve supply while creating another protest trigger. ([ine.gob.bo](https://www.ine.gob.bo/index.php/el-indice-de-precios-al-consumidor-disminuyo-279-en-bolivia-durante-julio-de-2026/))\\n\\nThe newest downside risk is the Cerimedo case. Consultant Fernando Cerimedo was detained on August 18 over the shooting of Nadia Beller, who then made [unproven corruption allegations involving Paz's family and fuel, gold and insurance transactions](https://elpais.com/america/2026-08-19/la-detencion-de-un-consultor-de-ultraderecha-acusado-de-intento-de-feminicidio-activa-denuncias-de-corrupcion-en-bolivia-y-argentina.html). The allegations are not established evidence against Paz. Their importance is political: corroboration could unite labor, Lara and center-right parties that otherwise distrust one another. ([elpais.com](https://elpais.com/america/2026-08-19/la-detencion-de-un-consultor-de-ultraderecha-acusado-de-intento-de-feminicidio-activa-denuncias-de-corrupcion-en-bolivia-y-argentina.html))\\n\\nMy scenario model is:\\n\\n| Scenario through December 31 | Weight | Conditional chance Paz exits |\\n|---|---:|---:|\\n| Politics remains contained; local protests and cabinet conflict continue | 44% | 2% |\\n| Serious but fragmented unrest returns; security forces and enough legislators defend continuity | 33% | 14% |\\n| Severe convergent crisis: nationwide blockades plus scandal or coalition rupture | 21% | 62% |\\n| Abrupt shock such as death, definitive incapacity or coup | 2% | 75% |\\n\\nThe weighted result is 20% NO and 80% YES. The short horizon, the failed resignation campaign and continued military support keep survival favored; the scheduled protest window and fresh political shocks keep it well below 90%.\\n\\n## What's non-obvious\\n\\nThe current quiet is neither a clean victory nor mere cosmetic repression. The emergency suppressed mobilization, but the previous coalition also fragmented after the COB negotiated and other sectors failed to sustain the blockade. Paz's survival through the June peak is positive selection evidence: parliament and the security forces revealed that they preferred constitutional continuity when the presidency was under direct pressure.\\n\\nThe opposition has enough votes to damage ministers and block policy, but not a shared succession plan. Lara's [12% urban approval](https://www.vision360.bo/noticias/2026/08/05/61432-paz-y-lara-bajan-en-sus-niveles-de-aprobacion-y-escalan-en-la-desaprobacion-de-la-gestion) makes him a poor consensus replacement. For many center-right actors, weakening Paz and extracting concessions is safer than removing him and handing Lara the presidency. The August 19 summit is a risk signal, but its very purpose shows that a removal coalition had not yet formed. ([vision360.bo](https://www.vision360.bo/noticias/2026/08/05/61432-paz-y-lara-bajan-en-sus-niveles-de-aprobacion-y-escalan-en-la-desaprobacion-de-la-gestion))\\n\\n## Uncertainties\\n\\n- The [Cerimedo allegations](https://elpais.com/america/2026-08-19/la-detencion-de-un-consultor-de-ultraderecha-acusado-de-intento-de-feminicidio-activa-denuncias-de-corrupcion-en-bolivia-y-argentina.html) are extremely new. Documentary evidence directly implicating Paz or his immediate family would move the forecast down sharply.\\n- The emergency makes observed protest counts a weak measure of latent mobilization capacity. Better nationwide polling of unions, transport organizations and rural federations would clarify whether the June coalition can re-form.\\n- The outcomes of the [opposition summit](https://www.vision360.bo/noticias/2026/08/19/63499-reyes-villa-tuto-y-doria-medina-alistan-cumbre-politica-para-definir-si-respaldan-al-gobierno-o-lo-dejan-solo), the Espinoza constitutional challenge, and any decision on extending the state of exception were unknown at the cutoff.\\n- The approval survey is an online sample of four urban areas, not a national probability sample. It captures the direction of opinion better than its exact national level.\"},\"engine\":{\"metadata\":{\"engine\":\"durable_forecast\",\"model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"model_route\":{\"deadline_seconds\":2400,\"managed_tools\":true,\"max_attempts\":2,\"metadata\":{},\"model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"native_code_execution\":true,\"native_web_search\":true,\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"},\"orchestration_backend\":\"durable_forecast\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"question_type\":\"binary\"},\"settings\":{\"claude_runtime\":\"e2b\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"high\",\"subforecast_count\":4,\"subforecast_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"synthesis_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"synthesis_reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"}},\"forecast\":{\"callsign\":\"IRON12-12\",\"created_at\":\"2026-08-20T08:07:00.818626+00:00\",\"forecast_task_id\":\"44060bc6-3017-4dd8-b9fc-1071850787bb\",\"id\":\"94be0865-1cdd-4bd4-8d05-d877b94c7075\",\"orchestrator_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"question_version_id\":\"8c87466b-d43b-416e-b806-77f0720f9c21\",\"research_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"trigger_kind\":\"watcher\"},\"issuer\":\"Preseen\",\"product\":\"Preseen\",\"question\":{\"callsign\":\"IRON12\",\"description\":\"This question asks whether Rodrigo Paz Pereira will continue to hold the office of President of the Plurinational State of Bolivia without interruption through the end of calendar year 2026. Rodrigo Paz Pereira assumed the presidency on 8 November 2025 after winning the 2025 presidential election and is the incumbent president as of June 2026. Recent reporting has described significant political and social unrest, including nationwide protests, road blockades, cabinet resignations, and public calls for his resignation during 2026. ([presidencia.gob.bo](https://presidencia.gob.bo/index.php/presidente-de-bolivia/)) ([elpais.com](https://elpais.com/america/2026-06-03/renuncian-dos-ministros-del-gobierno-boliviano-tras-un-mes-de-protestas.html))\\r\\n\\r\\nThe forecasting period runs from the time the question is asked until 31 December 2026. The question concerns whether Paz remains president continuously through that date.\",\"fine_print\":\"Temporary foreign travel, medical leave, or short-term delegation of powers does not count as leaving office if Rodrigo Paz Pereira legally remains President. If constitutional succession transfers the presidency to another person, even on an interim basis, before the end of 31 December 2026, the question resolves NO. If he leaves office and later returns before the end of 2026, the question still resolves NO because he did not remain in power continuously through the period. If reliable information sufficient to determine the officeholder is unavailable on the resolution check date, resolution may be delayed until the facts can be established.\",\"id\":\"fd27d36c-85a2-4faf-a21e-c4fa08b8221c\",\"lower_bound\":null,\"open_lower_bound\":false,\"open_upper_bound\":false,\"options\":[],\"options_are_comprehensive\":true,\"options_are_mutually_exclusive\":true,\"question_type\":\"binary\",\"resolution_check_date\":\"2027-01-02\",\"resolution_criteria\":\"Resolve YES if Rodrigo Paz Pereira is still serving as President of Bolivia at 23:59 local time in Bolivia on 31 December 2026 and has not permanently left the office before that moment. Resolve NO if, at any time before that moment, he ceases to be President of Bolivia due to resignation, removal, impeachment, death, incapacity, judicial or constitutional action, military coup, succession, replacement by an acting or permanent president, or any other loss of the presidency.\\r\\n\\r\\nResolution will be based on official Bolivian government announcements and records. If those are unclear or unavailable, major international news organizations and widely recognized reference sources documenting the officeholder of the Bolivian presidency may be used.\",\"scale_type\":\"\",\"title\":\"Will Bolivian president Rodrigo Paz Pereira remain in power through the end of 2026?\",\"upper_bound\":null},\"question_version\":{\"created_at\":\"2026-06-18T11:21:00.348120+00:00\",\"created_reason\":\"question_updated\",\"id\":\"8c87466b-d43b-416e-b806-77f0720f9c21\",\"version_number\":2},\"receipt_kind\":\"forecast_attestation\",\"receipt_schema_version\":1,\"signature_context\":{\"key_source\":\"configured\",\"public_key_id\":\"preseen-prod-ed25519-20260523\",\"signature_algorithm\":\"ed25519\",\"signed_at\":\"2026-08-20T08:50:27.320583+00:00\"}}","verification":{"valid":true,"error":""},"created_at":"2026-08-20T08:50:27.330242+00:00","updated_at":"2026-08-20T08:50:27.668043+00:00"}}