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","response_der_base64":"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What Polls Show 3 Days Out - Newsweek\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729052+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.newsweek.com/who-win-midterms-polls-3-days-12641376\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Michigan Senate odds: El-Sayed at 77% as Democrats fight over Israel\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729056+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://news.kalshi.com/p/michigan-senate-race-odds-democratic-infighting-over-israel\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Abdul El-Sayed's Michigan Senate odds rise 76% percent, an all-time-high\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729059+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://news.kalshi.com/p/el-sayed-michigan-senate-odds-76-percent-six-month-high\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Nate Silver Makes Bombshell Prediction About the End of the Trump Era\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729061+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.thedailybeast.com/nate-silver-makes-bombshell-prediction-about-the-end-of-the-trump-era\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Nate Silver's Blog, page 7\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729064+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/3387859.Nate_Silver/blog?page=7\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Democrats chide Nate Silver for predicting a GOP Senate takeover\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729066+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/democrats-chide-nate-silver-for-predicting-a-gop-senate-takeover\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Final Election Update: The Forecast Is More Or Less Back Where It Started\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729070+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.goodreads.com/author_blog_posts/23090630-final-election-update-the-forecast-is-more-or-less-back-where-it-starte\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Michigan Senate 2026 forecast: El-Sayed vs. Rogers · Call the Map\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729073+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.callthemap.com/senate/michigan\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"FiftyPlusOne - Michigan General Senate Election Polls and Average for the 2026 General Election\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729075+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate/general/michigan\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Abdul El-Sayed announces campaign for U.S. Senate seat from Michigan\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729078+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://cbsnews.com/amp/detroit/news/el-sayed-senate-seat-from-michigan\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Rift between El-Sayed and pro-Israel Democratic primary rival puts Michigan Jews on edge - Jewish Telegraphic Agency\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729080+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://jta.org/2026/10/31/politics/rift-between-el-sayed-and-pro-israel-democratic-primary-rival-puts-michigan-jews-on-edge\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Haley Stevens reopens feud with Abdul El-Sayed days before Michigan Senate vote\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729083+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.wlns.com/your-local-election-hq/el-sayed-stevens-clash\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Advisor to Jim Clyburn says Abdul El-Sayed can't disinvite Haley Stevens from unity event\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729085+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6186552-clyburn-rally-el-sayed-stevens\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Abdul El-Sayed campaign asks Haley Stevens not to attend final campaign events for Michigan Senate - CBS News\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729088+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.cbsnews.com/news/abdul-el-sayed-haley-stevens-feud-michigan-senate\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Abdul El-Sayed disinvites Rep. Haley Stevens from campaign event\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729091+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6186206-el-sayed-disinvites-stevens\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Is Abdul El-Sayed's Campaign Imploding?\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729093+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2026/11/01/is-abdul-el-sayeds-campaign-imploding-n4958905\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Michigan Democrat grilled over rally with anti-Israel streamer who claims 'America deserved 9/11'\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729096+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.foxnews.com/politics/squad-member-summer-lee-calls-upper-class-enemy-el-sayed-rally\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Michigan Dem candidate grilled over rally with anti-Israel streamer\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729099+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.foxnews.com/media/michigan-democrat-defends-appearing-hasan-piker-distances-podcasters-controversial-remarks\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Print Print    Close Close\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729102+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.foxnews.com/media/michigan-democrat-defends-appearing-hasan-piker-distances-podcasters-controversial-remarks.print\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Mike Rogers (Michigan politician)\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729104+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Rogers_(Michigan_politician)\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"McMorrow gets separation in latest poll for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729107+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/mcmorrow-gets-separation-latest-poll-152033665.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Rogers leads Senate poll as Stevens closes gap; Benson, James top early 2026 governor field\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729109+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/rogers-leads-senate-poll-stevens-230012392.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Michigan Senate odds: El-Sayed's chances rise to 71% as Trump ramps up attacks\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729112+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://news.kalshi.com/p/michigan-senate-odds-el-sayed-leads-rogers-71-percent\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"The Michigan senate race is Abdul El-Sayed’s to lose\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729114+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/the-michigan-senate-race-is-abdul\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Michigan Senate Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: El-Sayed vs. Rogers\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729117+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://kalshi.com/markets/senatemi/michigan-senate-race/senatemi-26\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Michigan Early Vote Tracker 2026: Ballots Cast by County\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729119+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://onpointpolitics.us/maps/early-vote/michigan\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Sabato's Crystal Ball 2026 Senate Race Ratings - 270toWin\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729122+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/sabatos-crystal-ball-senate-2026\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Rating Changes Toward Democrats Across the Board: MI-SEN to Leans D, Other Key Statewide Races to Toss-up\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729124+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/rating-changes-toward-democrats-across\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"2026 Senate Election Forecast Maps - 270toWin\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729127+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election-predictions\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Democrats Appear to Hold Narrow Senate Edge with Week to Go; Rating Changes for Senate, House, and Governors\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729129+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/democrats-appear-to-hold-narrow-senate\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"2026 Senate Archives - Sabato's Crystal Ball\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729133+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/category/2026-senate\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Sabato's Crystal Ball Moves 2 Senate Races Toward Dems\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729135+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/sabatos-crystal-ball-moves-2-234541410.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"A Rating Change Appetizer: Senate Changes in Louisiana and Minnesota\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729138+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://sabatoscrystalball.substack.com/p/a-rating-change-appetizer-senate\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"2022 Michigan Senate election\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729140+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Michigan_Senate_election\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Rating Changes Toward Democrats Across the Board: MI-SEN to Leans D, Other Key Statewide Races to Toss-up - Sabato's Crystal Ball\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729143+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/rating-changes-toward-democrats-across-the-board-mi-sen-to-leans-d-other-key-statewide-races-to-toss-up\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Abdul El-Sayed Edges Out Mike Rogers in Michigan: Most Accurate Pollster - Newsweek\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729146+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.newsweek.com/abdul-el-sayed-edges-out-mike-rogers-michigan-most-accurate-pollster-12342388\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"The National Picture Before Tuesday: Democrats Are Favored in the House, the Senate Is in Reach, and the Campaign Season Ran on Fear\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729148+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://jackdiggs.substack.com/p/the-national-picture-before-tuesday\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Nate Silver\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729150+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Detroit expects 40-45% turnout for 2026 midterms\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729153+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/detroit-election-turnout-midterm-2026\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Detroit expects 40-45% turnout for 2026 midterms\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729156+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/detroit-expects-40-45-turnout-155457604.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Detroit sets new record for early voting ahead of the November midterm - CBS Detroit\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729158+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/detroit-sets-new-records-early-voting-midterm\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Michigan voters have returned over 1M ballots with one week until Election Day - CBS Detroit\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729161+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/michigan-voter-turnout-tops-16-percent\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Detroit early voting starts strong with record number of ballots cast\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729164+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/10/26/detroit-early-voting-starts-strong-with-record-number-of-ballots-cast/92448400007\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Detroit breaks early voting record ahead of Nov. 3\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729167+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://rollingout.com/2026/10/30/detroit-breaks-early-voting-record-ahead\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Michigan's youngest voters made biggest gains in midterm voter turnout\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729172+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://news.yahoo.com/michigans-youngest-voters-made-biggest-110100592.html\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Michigan's youth voter turnout in 2022 was best in US, report says\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729174+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/detroit/news/michigans-youth-voter-turnout-was-best-in-us-report-says\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"FLIPR 2026 Senate forecast\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729179+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-senate-model\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Let’s talk shop about every Senate race\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729181+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.natesilver.net/p/lets-talk-shop-about-every-senate\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Michigan Senate odds: El-Sayed's chances priced at 69% with one week to Election Day\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729191+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://news.kalshi.com/p/michigan-senate-odds-el-sayed-leads-rogers-66-to-34\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Mike Rogers claims he leads by 7 points in early ballots, but offers no evidence and polls say otherwise\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:03:25.729194+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://wegotthiscovered.com/politics/mike-rogers-claims-he-leads-by-7-points-in-early-ballots-but-offers-no-evidence-and-polls-say-otherwise\"}],\"write_up\":\"## Executive Summary\\n\\n**Abdul El-Sayed has a 74.0% probability of ultimately winning Michigan’s 2026 U.S. Senate election.** He is the favorite against Republican Mike Rogers, but the race is not secure.\\n\\nThe forecast, made on **November 1, 2026 at 18:00 UTC**, rests principally on El-Sayed’s consistent polling lead. It discounts that lead for Michigan’s recent history of polls overstating Democratic Senate support and for Haley Stevens’s last-minute endorsement of Rogers—an event not captured by the available surveys.\\n\\nThis is a probability of being the ultimate lawful winner, not a projected vote share or an election-night call.\\n\\n## Key drivers\\n\\n### A polling lead that survives different methods\\n\\nEl-Sayed’s advantage does not depend on one favorable survey. CNN/SSRS’s October 20–27 poll showed him ahead 49–42; Mitchell’s October 26–27 survey showed 51–44; and Rasmussen’s October 28–29 poll showed 49–44. Other surveys were considerably closer: Marist reported 50–48 and InsiderAdvantage 47–46.\\n\\nBoth a recent-poll aggregation and a broader cross-pollster aggregation preserved his lead. The disagreement over its size, however, matters: agreement on the leader is not agreement that the election is settled.\\n\\n### Shared polling error remains a substantial risk\\n\\nAveraging surveys reduces some random variation, but it cannot eliminate errors they share, such as similar assumptions about who will vote.\\n\\nHistorical comparisons with Michigan’s certified Senate results found that the final polling averages overstated Democrats in 2018, 2020 and 2024 by an average of about 2.5 percentage points. Older comparisons included errors in the opposite direction. The forecast therefore allows for residual Democratic overstatement without assuming that the recent pattern must repeat unchanged.\\n\\n### The environment helps Democrats, but El-Sayed has distinct weaknesses\\n\\nMarist found Democrats leading Michigan’s congressional ballot by six points while El-Sayed led his Senate race by two. Michigan State University’s polling also found him running behind Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson among moderates, Black voters and Wayne County residents.\\n\\nThese findings make turnout and voters choosing different parties for different offices important risks. They also caution against double-counting: much of El-Sayed’s candidate-specific weakness is already reflected in the Senate polls.\\n\\n### Stevens’s endorsement adds genuinely new downside\\n\\n[Axios reported at 17:36 UTC on November 1](https://www.axios.com/2026/11/01/haley-stevens-mike-rogers-church-michigan-senate) that Stevens had explicitly endorsed Rogers. The endorsement followed a dispute involving Israel-related rhetoric and an outside advertisement.\\n\\nThe concern is that her support could give wavering Democrats permission to vote Republican and disrupt El-Sayed’s closing message. But an endorsement does not establish that her supporters will follow her. [AP’s contemporaneous account](https://apnews.com/article/d7053bbd0ed2fd70756896c6e4b66a27) also described other prominent Democrats continuing to campaign for El-Sayed.\\n\\n### Already-cast votes constrain late movement\\n\\nMichigan Public, citing the state dashboard, reported **1,858,624 ballots already cast as of October 30 morning**. Michigan’s rules prevent changing a tabulated early vote, and the deadline to spoil a returned absentee ballot had passed.\\n\\nThat limits the endorsement’s direct reach. It does not eliminate persuasion or turnout effects among people who had not yet voted, and ballot counts alone do not reveal candidate choices.\\n\\n## Scenarios\\n\\n| Path | Why it carries weight | How it resolves |\\n|---|---|---|\\n| **El-Sayed’s lead survives polling error and limited late defections** | This receives the greatest weight because his lead appears across polling organizations and aggregation choices. Existing candidate weaknesses were already visible in surveys, while substantial voting preceded Stevens’s endorsement. | El-Sayed retains enough of the Democratic coalition and wins. |\\n| **Rogers wins through polling overstatement, turnout differences and crossover voting** | This is the principal adverse path. Recent Michigan Senate polling misses favored Republicans, closer surveys leave little cushion, and the endorsement could amplify weaknesses among voters El-Sayed was already struggling to retain. | The measured lead disappears and Rogers wins. |\\n\\nA very close result is possible within either path. Recounts or litigation could delay resolution, but a delay alone would not make the answer NO.\\n\\n## Implications\\n\\n- **For political planning, the seat is more likely to remain Democratic, but a Rogers victory needs a credible contingency.** The evidence does not justify treating Michigan as decided.\\n- **The remaining uncertainty is concentrated in turnout, shared polling error and late coalition movement.** More pre-endorsement polling would add less information than credible evidence about those specific risks.\\n- **Result timing and result direction are separate issues.** Formal resolution requires Michigan’s certified result, subject to any final binding legal determination before the winner takes office—not merely a media projection.\\n\\n## Signs to watch\\n\\n| Timing or development | What would matter | Direction for the forecast |\\n|---|---|---|\\n| **November 1: early in-person voting concludes** | Updated participation evidence, particularly in Wayne County and other areas important to the Democratic coalition. | Stronger participation in Democratic areas would make YES more likely; persistent weakness would make it less likely. Raw counts without candidate choices remain limited evidence. |\\n| **Before November 3: credible post-endorsement interviews become available** | Whether El-Sayed retains his lead, especially among moderates and Black voters, or shows clear new erosion. No such survey was available in the research. | Stable support would make YES more likely; erosion would make it less likely. This would settle a major uncertainty and make the forecast worth rerunning. |\\n| **Before November 3: further Democratic defections or a visible restoration of unity** | Whether Stevens’s endorsement remains isolated or becomes a broader coalition split. | Additional defections would make YES less likely; credible reconciliation or renewed consolidation would make it more likely. A broad shift would warrant rerunning the forecast. |\\n| **November 3: voting and actual returns** | El-Sayed’s support in Wayne and Oakland counties, turnout, and the extent to which voters support other Democrats but choose Rogers for Senate. | Strong coalition retention would make YES more likely; substantial crossover voting or weak turnout would make it less likely. Actual returns would supersede the polling-based assessment. |\\n| **After November 3: certification, recounts or litigation if needed** | The final certified winner and any binding legal determination before the term begins. | An El-Sayed result settles YES; another candidate’s result settles NO. A procedural delay by itself has no directional implication. |\\n\\n## Research and methodology\\n\\nThe forecast combined individual polling evidence, historical error calibration and explicit judgment about the late endorsement. Public forecasts and markets served as cross-checks rather than determining the result.\\n\\n- **Individual polls and original questionnaires.** The [270toWin polling archive](https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/michigan) helped identify releases. Original material—including [Marist](https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-michigan-october-2026/), [Data for Progress](https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2026/10/dfp_2026_mi_ge_tabs.pdf) and [MSU/YouGov](https://ippsr.msu.edu/news/msu-poll-shows-benson-large-lead-while-el-sayed-roger-race-tight)—was used to check interview dates, likely-voter definitions and differing question versions.\\n- **Original polling aggregation.** Two summaries were constructed: one emphasizing 11 recent survey series and another retaining 23 cross-pollster observations with older fieldwork. Each used one observation per series, favored recent interviews, limited the influence of very large samples and reduced weight for partisan sponsorship or limited disclosure. The two summaries received equal weight.\\n- **Historical calibration.** [Michigan’s certified election results](https://www.michigan.gov/sos/elections/election-results-and-data) were compared with archived final polling averages, including [2020](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2020/michigan/james-vs-peters) and [2024](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/michigan/rogers-vs-slotkin). Six usable comparisons informed the allowance for polling error. The calculation retained substantial uncertainty rather than treating surveys as fully independent.\\n- **Late campaign reporting.** Axios and AP established the endorsement and its context. Its electoral effect was treated as a judgmental adjustment, not a measured shift in voter preferences.\\n- **Early voting and voting rules.** The [October 30 Michigan Public report](https://www.wnmufm.org/local-regional-news/2026-10-30/michigan-faith-leaders-call-for-civility-as-the-midterm-election-draws-to-an-end) and [Michigan’s official voting rules](https://www.michigan.gov/sos/faqs/elections-and-campaign-finance/early-in-person-voting) constrained assumptions about how many voters could still react.\\n- **External cross-checks.** [The Hill/Decision Desk HQ](https://elections2026.thehill.com/forecast/2026/senate/michigan), [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-senate-election-winner) and [PredictIt](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/8158/Which-party-will-win-the-2026-US-Senate-election-in-Michigan) also favored El-Sayed. Market timestamps and available trading depth were not sufficiently verified for precise combination, so they caused no numerical adjustment.\\n\\n## Limitations\\n\\nThe most consequential missing evidence was a credible survey conducted **after Stevens’s explicit endorsement**. Its incremental effect remains assumed rather than measured.\\n\\nValidated turnout comparisons for El-Sayed’s vulnerable constituencies were also unavailable. Early-voting totals show participation, not support. An unresolved discrepancy between MSU/Verasight’s university release and archived figures further limited precision.\\n\\nHistorical calibration rests on only six usable Michigan Senate comparisons, with missing averages and some archive inconsistencies. That is too small and heterogeneous a sample to establish a stable polling bias.\\n\\nCurrent Michigan-specific numerical forecasts from Nate Silver and Metaculus could not be verified. The accessible [G. Elliott Morris simulator](https://projects.gelliottmorris.com/senate-2026/) explicitly was not a live forecast, so its scenarios were not treated as one.\"},\"engine\":{\"metadata\":{\"engine\":\"durable_forecast\",\"model\":\"gpt-6.1-sol\",\"model_route\":{\"deadline_seconds\":2400,\"managed_tools\":true,\"max_attempts\":2,\"metadata\":{},\"model\":\"gpt-6.1-sol\",\"native_code_execution\":true,\"native_web_search\":true,\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"},\"orchestration_backend\":\"durable_forecast\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"question_type\":\"binary\"},\"settings\":{\"claude_runtime\":\"e2b\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"high\",\"subforecast_count\":4,\"subforecast_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"synthesis_model\":\"gpt-6.1-sol\",\"synthesis_reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"}},\"forecast\":{\"callsign\":\"BANNER-PATROL-CITADEL-16\",\"created_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:00:46.688614+00:00\",\"forecast_task_id\":\"49e9dd9b-9aa8-4419-9705-83815e73dae2\",\"id\":\"67ec556c-0f31-477f-925f-ae2ba848bfef\",\"orchestrator_model\":\"gpt-6.1-sol\",\"question_version_id\":\"d1e4830e-d33b-4239-ba63-903b1d9672a9\",\"research_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol+gpt-6.1-sol+claude-opus-5-5\",\"trigger_kind\":\"watcher\"},\"issuer\":\"Preseen\",\"product\":\"Preseen\",\"question\":{\"callsign\":\"BANNER-PATROL-CITADEL\",\"description\":\"This question asks whether Abdul El-Sayed will be elected to the United States Senate from Michigan in the 2026 regularly scheduled election for the Class 2 seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters. As of August 2026, El-Sayed has won the Democratic nomination and is expected to face Republican nominee Mike Rogers in the November 3, 2026 general election. The outcome concerns who is ultimately elected to the Senate seat for the term beginning in January 2027.\",\"fine_print\":\"If the regularly scheduled election is postponed but later held for the same Senate term, the question resolves according to the eventual election outcome. If no candidate is elected by the voters for that Senate term (for example, because the election is permanently canceled and the full term is instead filled through another legal mechanism), the question is annulled. Write-in candidates are eligible to produce either a YES or NO outcome if they are ultimately elected.\",\"id\":\"d44bf249-f1c0-4886-916a-42e5c9203fa1\",\"lower_bound\":null,\"open_lower_bound\":false,\"open_upper_bound\":false,\"options\":[],\"options_are_comprehensive\":true,\"options_are_mutually_exclusive\":true,\"question_type\":\"binary\",\"resolution_check_date\":\"2026-11-03\",\"resolution_criteria\":\"Resolve YES if Abdul El-Sayed is the candidate who is ultimately elected to the U.S. Senate from Michigan for the Class 2 seat in the 2026 regular election. Resolve NO if any other candidate is ultimately elected. The primary resolution source will be the certified official election results published by the Michigan Department of State. If certification is delayed because of recounts or litigation, resolution will wait for the final certified result. If the certified outcome is subsequently overturned by a final, binding court order or other final legal determination before the winner takes office, resolve according to that final lawful outcome.\",\"scale_type\":\"\",\"title\":\"Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 US Senate election in Michigan?\",\"upper_bound\":null},\"question_version\":{\"created_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:00:46.509993+00:00\",\"created_reason\":\"forecast_task_created\",\"id\":\"d1e4830e-d33b-4239-ba63-903b1d9672a9\",\"version_number\":3},\"receipt_kind\":\"forecast_attestation\",\"receipt_schema_version\":1,\"signature_context\":{\"key_source\":\"configured\",\"public_key_id\":\"preseen-prod-ed25519-20260523\",\"signature_algorithm\":\"ed25519\",\"signed_at\":\"2026-11-01T18:23:36.334776+00:00\"}}","verification":{"valid":true,"error":""},"created_at":"2026-11-01T18:23:36.344847+00:00","updated_at":"2026-11-01T18:23:37.190494+00:00"}}