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markets found matching 'U.S. ease technology export restrictions China Trump Xi September 24 2026'.\",\"url\":null},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Predictit\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-18T15:26:09.361095+00:00\",\"kind\":\"tool\",\"provider\":\"mcp\",\"snippet\":\"No markets found matching 'Trump China'. There are 191 active markets total. 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Trump Strikes Deal on Economic and Trade Relations with China – The White House\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-18T15:27:41.904801+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-strikes-deal-on-economic-and-trade-relations-with-china?query-11-page=80\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Factbox-What will Trump and Xi discuss in Washington next week? - Internazionale\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-18T15:27:41.904844+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.internazionale.it/ultime-notizie-reuters/2026/09/17/factbox-what-will-trump-and-xi-discuss-in-washington-next-week\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"What to expect from the Trump-Xi summit in Washington | World Economic Forum\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-18T15:27:41.905015+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.weforum.org/stories/geo-economics-and-politics/what-to-expect-from-the-trump-xi-summit-in-washington\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Lutnick: \\\"Export Controls Unlikely to Be on U.S.-China Summit Agenda\\\" - First-Class Business Newspaper Financial News\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-18T15:27:41.905095+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://en.fnnews.com/news/202609030946411521\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Secures Historic Deals with China, Delivering for American Workers, Farmers, and Industry – The White House\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-09-18T15:27:41.905142+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/05/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-secures-historic-deals-with-china-delivering-for-american-workers-farmers-and-industry?query-11-page=88\"}],\"write_up\":\"## TL;DR\\nI assign a 52.6% probability of YES, conditional on the September 24 meeting occurring. The main YES route is a new commitment to extend the BIS Affiliates Rule suspension beyond November 9, 2026, which the resolution treats as qualifying and the current rule says otherwise expires then ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/11/12/2025-19846/one-year-suspension-of-expansion-of-end-user-controls-for-affiliates-of-certain-listed-entities)). The probability is only slightly above even: China is asking for that exact delay and both sides previously said they would work toward extending the linked package, but Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said he does not expect export-control easing at the summit and final terms remain unsettled ([MOFCOM](https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/syxwfb/art/2026/art_3e89743a8d5d4a95bccdda685830afbd.html); [Reuters](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/what-will-trump-and-xi-discuss-in-washington-next-week-ce785bd3d18df727); [Lutnick report](https://en.asiatoday.co.kr/view.php?key=20260904001004177)). \\n\\n## Context\\nThe January 2026 policy allowing case-by-case review of Nvidia H200, AMD MI325X, and similar China-bound chips is already in the baseline. Repeating that policy or approving an ordinary license under it would not qualify ([BIS](https://www.bis.gov/press-release/department-commerce-revises-license-review-policy-semiconductors-exported-china)). \\n\\nThe key live measure is the Affiliates Rule. It would automatically apply restricted-party controls to entities at least 50% owned by covered listed parties. The United States suspended it from November 10, 2025 through November 9, 2026 as part of the prior Trump–Xi bargain, with the restrictions scheduled to return on November 10 absent further action ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/11/12/2025-19846/one-year-suspension-of-expansion-of-end-user-controls-for-affiliates-of-certain-listed-entities); [White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-strikes-deal-on-economic-and-trade-relations-with-china/)). \\n\\n## Evidence\\nThe historical backbone is seven prior in-person Trump–Xi bilateral meetings from April 2017 through May 2026. Two produced an identifiable, meeting-linked United States technology-export relaxation within roughly the same announcement window, for a raw base rate of 2/7, or 28.6%.\\n\\n| Meeting | Qualifying analogue? | Officially reported outcome |\\n|---|---:|---|\\n| [Mar-a-Lago, April 6–7, 2017](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/statement-press-secretary-united-states-china-visit/) | No | Cooperation framework, without an identified United States technology-export concession. |\\n| [Hamburg, July 8, 2017](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/readout-president-donald-j-trumps-meeting-president-xi-jinping-china/) | No | Economic and security dialogue, without a specific relaxation. |\\n| [Beijing, November 8–10, 2017](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trumps-state-visit-china/) | No | Commercial deals and bilateral cooperation, without an identified export-control concession. |\\n| [Buenos Aires, December 1, 2018](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/statement-press-secretary-regarding-presidents-working-dinner-china/) | No | A tariff pause and negotiations, not United States technology-export relief. |\\n| [Osaka, June 29, 2019](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-press-conference-osaka-japan/) | Yes | Trump announced that American companies could continue selling certain equipment to Huawei where no major national-security issue existed. |\\n| [Busan, October 30, 2025](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-strikes-deal-on-economic-and-trade-relations-with-china/) | Yes | The United States committed to suspend the Affiliates Rule for one year. |\\n| [Beijing, May 14–15, 2026](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/05/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-secures-historic-deals-with-china-delivering-for-american-workers-farmers-and-industry/) | No | Boards of Trade and Investment, minerals, aircraft, and agriculture, but no new United States technology-export relaxation. |\\n\\nThat base rate is weak because the sample is small and most meetings lacked a named export-control measure approaching expiration. The present case is more favorable to YES. In May 2026, China’s Commerce Ministry explicitly described the reciprocal arrangement as covering both the United States 50% Affiliates Rule and China’s related export controls, then said the two economic teams would work to extend the arrangement ([MOFCOM, May 20, 2026](https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/syxwfb/art/2026/art_3e89743a8d5d4a95bccdda685830afbd.html)). This was a promise to negotiate, not a definite extension, so it raises the forecast without entering the baseline as an already-granted concession. \\n\\nThe freshest reporting is also unusually specific. Reuters reported on September 17 that Beijing was pressing Washington to delay further the rule that would block thousands of Chinese firms from receiving advanced United States technology, while Washington sought better access to Chinese rare earths and critical minerals ([Reuters](https://www.marketscreener.com/news/what-will-trump-and-xi-discuss-in-washington-next-week-ce785bd3d18df727)). NPR reported that China had earlier offered a rare-earth moratorium through January 2029, while the United States sought only a six-month extension to be announced after Xi’s September visit ([NPR](https://www.wxxinews.org/npr-news/2026-09-17/big-questions-and-key-logistical-details-loom-ahead-of-china-u-s-summit)). The NPR report does not say outright that Washington agreed to extend the Affiliates Rule in return, but I read the requested timing and the existing reciprocal structure as evidence that a matched, shorter rollover is under active negotiation. \\n\\nOutside assessments point the same way but are correlated. Brownstein called a one-year extension of the broader 2025 truce the most likely summit deliverable, though it also expected limited relief for advanced semiconductors ([Brownstein](https://www.bhfs.com/insight/expectations-for-the-trump-xi-september-meeting/)). Paul Triolo was more explicit, predicting that extending the arrangement holding both the Affiliates Rule and China’s October 2025 controls in abeyance would be the primary result ([ChinaFile](https://chinafile.com/conversation/what-watch-xi-trump-summit)). These are informed judgments, not separate independent data points, and “truce extension” does not always mean every component will be renewed. \\n\\nThe strongest evidence for NO is Lutnick’s September 2 answer that he did not believe export-control easing would be addressed at the summit. His explanation focused on China’s failure to take up the H200 offer, which makes the statement more decisive against another chip opening than against maintaining the Affiliates Rule pause. Still, he runs the department responsible for BIS, so the broad wording deserves real weight ([Asia Today](https://en.asiatoday.co.kr/view.php?key=20260904001004177)). \\n\\nChinese compliance is another obstacle. NPR found unfinished interagency preparations seven days before the meeting, continuing shortages for some specialized magnets, and a senior United States official calling China’s performance “very disappointing” ([NPR](https://www.wxxinews.org/npr-news/2026-09-17/big-questions-and-key-logistical-details-loom-ahead-of-china-u-s-summit)). The September 17 Chinese Commerce Ministry briefing said only that the teams remained in close contact on relevant issues; it disclosed no export-control agreement ([MOFCOM briefing](https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/xwfbzt/2026/swbzklxxwfbh2026n9y17r/index.html)). That silence is not proof of failure, but it confirms that no public deal text was available at the cutoff. \\n\\nThe announcement mechanics favor YES once a political agreement exists. The October 30, 2025 meeting was followed by a specific White House fact sheet on November 1, and BIS implemented the stay afterward. The current question likewise needs only a definite official commitment by September 26, not a completed Federal Register rule ([White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-strikes-deal-on-economic-and-trade-relations-with-china/)). \\n\\nMy event tree is:\\n\\n$$\\nP_{\\\\text{main}} = 0.72 \\\\times 0.76 \\\\times 0.93 = 0.508896\\n$$\\n\\nThe terms are a 72% chance of a definite extension of a meaningful part of the 2025 package, a 76% conditional chance that it expressly includes continued suspension of the Affiliates Rule, and a 93% conditional chance that the announcement is timely, specific, and not already locked into the pre-meeting baseline. If that route fails, I assign a 3.5% conditional chance to another qualifying measure, such as a new product-specific review policy, named-entity relief, or exceptional authorization:\\n\\n$$\\nP(\\\\text{YES}) = 0.508896 + (1-0.508896)\\\\times 0.035 = 0.52608464.\\n$$\\n\\n## What's non-obvious\\nThe obvious read is that meaningful chip relief is unlikely, so the answer should be NO. That misses the resolution rule. A temporary extension of an existing suspension counts as a new easing, even if officials market it as continuity rather than a concession. The question can therefore resolve YES without any new access to frontier AI chips.\\n\\nThe other subtle point is that “extend the trade truce” is too vague for forecasting this question. Some summit packages could extend tariffs and Chinese mineral measures while omitting the United States Affiliates Rule. I therefore give more weight to evidence naming that rule—the Reuters report and the May MOFCOM description—than to general predictions of a successful or stabilizing summit.\\n\\n## Uncertainties\\nThe decisive text is private. The largest gap is whether the September 19–20 preparatory talks produce a matched export-control extension or a package limited to tariffs, purchases, and Chinese mineral licenses. There is also no auditable dataset showing the number, value, processing time, or denial rate of Chinese rare-earth licenses for United States firms, so claims about compliance remain qualitative and contested. Finally, a broadly worded announcement that merely says the “truce continues” could fail the question’s specificity test even if both governments privately intend to preserve the Affiliates Rule suspension. A reasonable uncertainty range around the point estimate is roughly 35% to 70%.\"},\"engine\":{\"metadata\":{\"engine\":\"durable_forecast\",\"model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"model_route\":{\"deadline_seconds\":2400,\"managed_tools\":true,\"max_attempts\":2,\"metadata\":{},\"model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"native_code_execution\":true,\"native_web_search\":true,\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"},\"orchestration_backend\":\"durable_forecast\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"question_type\":\"binary\"},\"settings\":{\"claude_runtime\":\"e2b\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"high\",\"subforecast_count\":4,\"subforecast_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"synthesis_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"synthesis_reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"}},\"forecast\":{\"callsign\":\"IMPACT-TEMPO-RELAY-01\",\"created_at\":\"2026-09-18T15:08:20.866443+00:00\",\"forecast_task_id\":\"efd363c0-a35c-4713-b115-68d056fb78d3\",\"id\":\"662d77bb-e436-42e1-b5af-17563f007d30\",\"orchestrator_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"question_version_id\":\"85678914-9561-4b5b-b200-f421ab7e9cd2\",\"research_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"trigger_kind\":\"manual\"},\"issuer\":\"Preseen\",\"product\":\"Preseen\",\"question\":{\"callsign\":\"IMPACT-TEMPO-RELAY\",\"description\":\"This question asks whether the United States will announce, in connection with the assumed September 24, 2026 meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, a definite new commitment to ease a technology export restriction applicable to China. The qualifying announcement window begins during the September 24 meeting and ends September 26, 2026 at 23:59 America/New_York time. The September 24 meeting is a precondition: the forecast assumes that it takes place, and the question will be annulled if it does not. The baseline consists of U.S. export-control policies and concessions publicly announced before the September 24 meeting, including commitments announced but not yet implemented. As of September 18, 2026, China remains subject to multiple U.S. export-control restrictions under the Export Administration Regulations, including country-based and end-use/end-user controls. The current policy landscape already incorporates earlier changes in both directions: for example, BIS announced in January 2026 that certain advanced computing semiconductor exports to China, including Nvidia H200 and AMD MI325X-class products, would move to case-by-case license review subject to conditions, while other restrictions on semiconductor-related exports and restricted Chinese end users remain in place. ([bis.gov](https://www.bis.gov/regulations/ear/738))\",\"fine_print\":\"The assessment is based on whether the announced commitment substantively relaxes an existing technology export restriction relative to the pre-meeting baseline, regardless of whether officials use terms such as “easing” or “concession.” A broader agreement containing both restrictive and liberalizing measures can qualify if it contains at least one concession satisfying the YES criteria. For purposes of this question, a meeting that occurs on September 24 but differs in venue, format, or duration from prior plans still satisfies the meeting condition so long as Trump and Xi personally meet in an official bilateral context.\",\"id\":\"58239aad-1580-4292-8a8b-0ab38977a008\",\"lower_bound\":null,\"open_lower_bound\":false,\"open_upper_bound\":false,\"options\":[],\"options_are_comprehensive\":true,\"options_are_mutually_exclusive\":true,\"question_type\":\"binary\",\"resolution_check_date\":null,\"resolution_criteria\":\"Assuming the September 24, 2026 Trump-Xi meeting takes place, resolve YES if, during that meeting or afterward through September 26, 2026 at 23:59 America/New_York time, an authoritative U.S. government announcement or official joint statement identifies as an outcome of the meeting or its associated negotiations a definite new U.S. commitment to relax a technology export restriction applicable to China. A qualifying concession must identify the affected technology, product, named entity, recipient class, or transaction and specify the substantive relaxation being granted or committed to. Qualifying measures include removing, narrowing, or suspending a restriction or license requirement; expanding a license exception, authorization, or eligibility for a defined product or recipient; adopting a less restrictive license-review policy; granting an explicit exemption or exceptional authorization for transactions that were previously restricted; removing a named entity from a restricted-party list where doing so relaxes technology export restrictions; or extending an expiring suspension, exemption, or authorization beyond its previously announced expiration. Measures may concern exports, reexports, or transfers within China. A concession may be narrowly targeted or apply to a named company or transaction. However, an ordinary license approval under unchanged policy does not qualify. An individual authorization qualifies only if an authoritative source identifies it as a newly agreed concession associated with the meeting or its negotiations and specifies the previously restricted transaction that it permits. The comparison baseline includes all policies and commitments publicly announced before the September 24 meeting, whether or not they have taken legal effect by then. Restating or implementing an existing commitment, routine renewals under unchanged policy, proposals, promises merely to review restrictions or continue negotiations, tariff relief, investment permissions, and general commercial agreements lacking a technology export-control concession do not qualify. A definite official commitment qualifies even if the implementing rule, delisting, exemption, or license is issued after September 26; Federal Register publication during the window is not required. Resolution should rely on authoritative White House, Department of Commerce, BIS, or other relevant U.S. government announcements and official joint statements. BIS Federal Register notices may be used to establish the baseline or legal details but are not required for a qualifying announcement. If the September 24, 2026 Trump-Xi meeting occurs but no qualifying announcement is made by the deadline, resolve NO. If the September 24 meeting does not occur, annul the question rather than resolving NO.\",\"scale_type\":\"\",\"title\":\"Will the U.S. ease technology export restrictions applicable to China?\",\"upper_bound\":null},\"question_version\":{\"created_at\":\"2026-09-18T15:08:19.551823+00:00\",\"created_reason\":\"question_created\",\"id\":\"85678914-9561-4b5b-b200-f421ab7e9cd2\",\"version_number\":1},\"receipt_kind\":\"forecast_attestation\",\"receipt_schema_version\":1,\"signature_context\":{\"key_source\":\"configured\",\"public_key_id\":\"preseen-prod-ed25519-20260523\",\"signature_algorithm\":\"ed25519\",\"signed_at\":\"2026-09-18T15:51:36.072610+00:00\"}}","verification":{"valid":true,"error":""},"created_at":"2026-09-18T15:51:36.097407+00:00","updated_at":"2026-09-18T15:51:36.828182+00:00"}}