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faso\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-08T17:00:48.130839+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://leconomistedufaso.com/2026/10/19/activite-agricole-regionale-le-niger-affiche-la-progression-la-plus-soutenue\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"La trituration de cacao en Côte d'Ivoire a bondi de 46,6 % en glissement annuel en septembre, selon les exportateurs - 14/10/2026 à 17:01 - AMP Boursorama\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-08T17:00:48.130845+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.boursorama.com/bourse/actualites-amp/la-trituration-de-cacao-en-cote-d-ivoire-a-bondi-de-46-6-en-glissement-annuel-en-septembre-selon-les-exportateurs-765a56a6ee0cc254e4ee227993eadd37\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Cote d’Ivoire : un début timide pour la campagne de cacao de 2025/2026\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-08T17:00:48.130849+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.agenceecofin.com/actualites-agro/1410-132312-cote-d-ivoire-un-debut-timide-pour-la-campagne-de-cacao-de-2025/2026\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"Côte d’Ivoire : La filière cacao se prépare à une nouvelle chute de la production\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-08T17:00:48.130865+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://www.sikafinance.com/marches/cote-divoire-la-filiere-cacao-se-prepare-a-une-nouvelle-chute-de-la-production_57825\"},{\"cutoff_date\":null,\"display_name\":\"fr.tradingeconomics.com\",\"first_seen_at\":\"2026-11-08T17:00:48.130874+00:00\",\"kind\":\"web\",\"provider\":\"anthropic\",\"snippet\":null,\"url\":\"https://fr.tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cocoa\"}],\"write_up\":\"# Côte d’Ivoire cocoa production in 2026\\n\\n## Executive Summary\\n\\n**The forecast median is 1970000 metric tonnes of cocoa beans, with a central 80% range of 1760000–2190000 metric tonnes.** This covers production during January 1–December 31, 2026, not a cocoa marketing season spanning two years.\\n\\n| Forecast percentile | Metric tonnes |\\n|---|---:|\\n| 10th percentile | 1760000 |\\n| 50th percentile — median | 1970000 |\\n| 90th percentile | 2190000 |\\n\\nThe median is the middle outcome. The distribution assigns a 10% chance to production at or below the lower endpoint and a 10% chance above the upper endpoint; these are not hard bounds.\\n\\nThe central judgment is that **strong early-2026 production partly offsets a weaker, delayed incoming harvest**. The weak outlook for the following full crop season should not be substituted for the requested calendar-year total. Uncertainty remains substantial because commercial deliveries, physical production and official year labels do not align perfectly.\\n\\n## Key drivers\\n\\n### Strong production already recorded earlier in the year\\n\\nCôte d’Ivoire’s national statistics agency, ANStat, published a summary on November 6 reporting **879,818.7 tonnes during January–June 2026**, up **58.6% year on year**. This is the strongest current-year production observation supporting the forecast. It prevents the weak incoming-season outlook from dominating the entire calendar-year estimate. The underlying monthly returns were not independently verified.\\n\\n### A weak and delayed incoming harvest\\n\\nReuters’ November industry assessment described a deteriorating crop outlook, while its August reporting identified an **eight-to-ten-week delay** in the incoming main harvest. The key remaining physical uncertainty is how much of that crop is harvested before December 31. Delivery delays also matter for interpreting the evidence, but they need not imply an equal loss in production.\\n\\nThe following season’s outlook includes production in 2027. Applying its entire decline to calendar 2026 would therefore overstate the effect on this question.\\n\\n### Calendar boundaries materially affect the answer\\n\\nThe International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) normally reports production for October–September cocoa years. On February 27, 2026, Côte d’Ivoire announced a local marketing-calendar change: the main campaign would run September–February, and the intermediate campaign March–August.\\n\\nThis transition creates a risk of counting September twice when combining reports. FAOSTAT, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s statistics database, introduces another uncertainty: its methodology assigns crops to the year in which the harvest, or most of it, occurs, rather than guaranteeing a literal January–December aggregation.\\n\\n### Port arrivals are useful, but are not production\\n\\n*Port arrivals* are beans delivered to ports. They provide timely evidence, but storage, residual stocks and delivery delays can separate them from newly harvested output. Official reporting described state purchases of residual cocoa stocks during the completed campaign.\\n\\nThe forecast therefore uses arrivals to reconstruct the year while allowing for differences between commercial flows and production. It does not apply a fixed percentage discount from arrivals to harvest: the research did not establish a defensible adjustment of that kind.\\n\\n## Scenarios\\n\\nThe distribution uses the following judgmental components. Their weights describe how the forecast accommodates accounting and reporting possibilities; they are not measured historical frequencies.\\n\\n| Component | Weight | Why it carries this weight and how it affects the outcome |\\n|---|---:|---|\\n| Calendar-year reconstruction | 80% | The question explicitly requests January–December production, and national calendar-period statistics provide a relevant anchor. Strong first-half output is partly offset by weaker late-year production. Faster catch-up supports the upper part of the distribution; further slippage supports the lower part. |\\n| Crop-year attribution or permitted proxy | 10% | FAOSTAT’s attribution convention and the question’s crop-year fallback leave a material possibility that the resolving statistic remains closer to the stronger preceding campaign. This supports higher reported outcomes, but receives less weight than literal calendar-year accounting. |\\n| Lower result from an alternative crop-year conversion | 5% | A conversion combining overlapping crop seasons could yield a lower resolving value. This is secondary because national calendar-period observations exist, but the resolution rules explicitly permit conversion when necessary. |\\n| Large measurement or model error | 5% | Reporting-window ambiguity, inventory movements, revisions or a mistaken production-to-delivery mapping could produce a larger surprise in either direction. This allowance prevents the distribution from becoming too narrow. |\\n\\n## Implications\\n\\n- **Annual output and near-term availability can tell different stories.** An improvement over the latest national annual total can coexist with weak late-year deliveries. Procurement decisions should distinguish beans produced from beans available at ports.\\n- **Planning should use the distribution, not just its median.** The remaining uncertainty includes both harvest performance and the eventual reported statistic. A single-number budget would conceal these different risks.\\n- **Keep calendar-year and crop-year reporting separate.** A weak incoming-season headline does not by itself establish a similarly weak 2026 calendar total. Conversely, a stronger preceding campaign is not wholly attributable to 2026.\\n- **Statistical risk persists after the harvest ends.** Source selection, year attribution and permitted revisions may still change the resolving value after December 31.\\n\\n## Signs to watch\\n\\n| Timing or development | What could happen | Direction for the forecast |\\n|---|---|---|\\n| **November–December 2026: delayed-harvest catch-up** | The expected acceleration could materialize, or weak and irregular rains and delayed maturation could prevent it. | Evidence of stronger actual harvesting would move the forecast **higher**; further harvest slippage would move it **lower**. Delivery changes without clear harvest evidence could **widen** uncertainty. |\\n| **December 30, 2026: EU deforestation-rule date cited in the research** | Exporters could accelerate deliveries ahead of the cited date, while congestion could disrupt flows. | Faster flows would strengthen arrivals-based evidence for a **higher** result; delayed flows would point **lower**. If the change is purely logistical, it could instead **widen** uncertainty about production. |\\n| **December 31, 2026: calendar-year boundary** | Later reporting may establish whether delayed beans were harvested before year-end or slipped into 2027. | Confirmed harvesting after the boundary would move 2026 production **lower**. Clear evidence distinguishing harvest dates from delivery dates would **narrow** the range. |\\n| **Unscheduled national production or inventory update** | ANStat could publish later-year monthly coverage, or authorities could clarify how residual stocks entered commercial flows. | Stronger or weaker production would move the forecast **higher or lower**. A reconciled monthly total would **narrow** it. This would settle a major uncertainty and make the forecast worth rerunning. |\\n| **Next authoritative ICCO or FAOSTAT release** | A release could clarify production, source coverage or the year-attribution method. | Confirmed calendar coverage would **narrow** the distribution. Attribution to the stronger preceding campaign would point **higher**; a lower overlapping-season conversion would point **lower**. The forecast is worth rerunning when this is clarified. |\\n\\nThe research did not establish exact publication dates for forthcoming national, ICCO or FAOSTAT production updates; none is assumed here.\\n\\n## Research and methodology\\n\\nThe most consequential sources were:\\n\\n- **ANStat production publications.** The [June 2026 dashboard summary](https://anstat.ci/publication-details/1500e6b9349afec986315995a1bab92ce46b95d3b6523b3316302b4c9512d48c54822aa4490bcf7e3d0b52a64f664a2415726e7706d36b14c84d9a58ad18dee3btVCc43iCevkwGDlA5oIv_0KFk5EJLtjNt-4ChEhl133XZzFjnIBcCMxahb9a8b0) supplied the first-half observation. The [December 2025 statistical bulletin](https://www.anstat.ci/assets/publications/files/File_val_indicateur1775120634.pdf) supplied recent annual comparisons. Its 2024 total closely matches FAOSTAT’s corresponding value, supporting—but not proving—the relevance of national statistics to eventual resolution.\\n- **Reuters harvest and delivery reporting.** The [November 4 industry assessment](https://www.abokifx.com/news/96954/details) supplied completed-campaign arrivals and expectations for remaining deliveries. Its survey covered 17 industry participants, not a random national farm sample. The [August 26 report](https://ca.marketscreener.com/news/ivory-coast-s-delayed-cocoa-crop-could-mean-congested-ports-ahead-of-eu-rules-sources-say-ce7858d9de8dfe23) supplied the prior-year quarter comparison and harvest-delay evidence.\\n- **ADM Investor Services’ arrivals commentary.** The [November 2 report](https://www.admis.com/slow-arrivals-softer-chocolate-demand/) supplied recent weekly and cumulative arrivals. Its cumulative opening date was not explicit, so the calendar mapping remains an assumption rather than a verified monthly series.\\n- **Official marketing-calendar announcement.** The [government’s February 27 announcement](https://gouv.ci/actualite/filiere-cacao-le-gouvernement-modifie-le-calendrier-des-campagnes-de-vente-1857) established the changed campaign boundaries.\\n- **FAOSTAT history and methodology.** The [FAOSTAT-derived series available through Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cocoa-bean-production), covering 1961–2024, provided historical scale and volatility checks. [FAO’s production methodology](https://files-faostat.fao.org/production/QCL/QCL_methodology_e.pdf) established the year-attribution caveat.\\n- **ICCO reporting definitions and availability.** [ICCO’s statistical definitions](https://www.icco.org/statistics/statistics_2025/) established the normal crop-year basis. Its [August 2026 bulletin](https://www.icco.org/august-2026-quarterly-bulletin-of-cocoa-statistics/) stated that relevant production estimates were temporarily withheld, so it did not provide an observed answer.\\n\\nThe quantitative work reconstructed calendar-year commercial flows by removing the late-2025 portion of the preceding campaign and adding the relevant late-2026 flows, while avoiding overlapping reporting windows. Official first-half production was used as an anchor and consistency check, not added to overlapping arrivals. A main-harvest accounting cross-check did not fully reconcile with the delivery reconstruction, supporting a wider distribution. Reporting alternatives and a broad error allowance were then incorporated into the final probability distribution.\\n\\n## Limitations\\n\\n- **No official later-year monthly production total or inventory reconciliation was obtained.** Those data would most directly improve the forecast. The first-half figure was available through ANStat’s official publication summary, but its underlying monthly returns were not independently verified.\\n- **The source mapping remains incomplete.** A close historical match does not establish that ANStat directly feeds FAOSTAT or that their revision and year-attribution practices are identical. Transitional campaign coverage and cumulative-arrivals starting dates also remain imperfectly documented.\\n- **The uncertainty allowances are judgmental.** They are not measured error rates from a validated arrivals-to-production model.\\n\\nThe distribution assumes a numeric resolution. Under the question’s rules, it will instead be annulled if no authoritative data are available by **June 30, 2029**.\"},\"engine\":{\"metadata\":{\"engine\":\"durable_forecast\",\"model\":\"gpt-6.1-sol\",\"model_route\":{\"deadline_seconds\":2400,\"managed_tools\":true,\"max_attempts\":2,\"metadata\":{},\"model\":\"gpt-6.1-sol\",\"native_code_execution\":true,\"native_web_search\":true,\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"},\"orchestration_backend\":\"durable_forecast\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"question_type\":\"numeric\"},\"settings\":{\"claude_runtime\":\"e2b\",\"provider\":\"openai\",\"reasoning_effort\":\"high\",\"subforecast_count\":4,\"subforecast_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol\",\"synthesis_model\":\"gpt-6.1-sol\",\"synthesis_reasoning_effort\":\"xhigh\"}},\"forecast\":{\"callsign\":\"KILO-15\",\"created_at\":\"2026-11-08T16:50:02.758503+00:00\",\"forecast_task_id\":\"42558376-b71d-4d14-b897-6511c0afe25b\",\"id\":\"26d52ce1-e4d1-4e3f-9cde-00ee5a4e2c9a\",\"orchestrator_model\":\"gpt-6.1-sol\",\"question_version_id\":\"3564797c-7fa8-41bc-a131-4e9e2265dc42\",\"research_model\":\"gpt-5.6-sol+gpt-6.1-sol+claude-opus-5-5\",\"trigger_kind\":\"featured\"},\"issuer\":\"Preseen\",\"product\":\"Preseen\",\"question\":{\"callsign\":\"KILO\",\"description\":\"This question asks for the total annual production of cocoa beans in Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) for the 2026 calendar year, measured in metric tonnes. Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s largest cocoa producer, typically accounting for roughly 40–45% of global output, with annual production commonly in the range of about 2.0–2.3 million tonnes in recent years. ([cropgpt.ai](https://cropgpt.ai/cocoa-market-reference-guide)) Production has fluctuated significantly due to weather, disease, and market conditions: output fell to roughly 1.7–1.8 million tonnes in 2023/24, with forecasts for 2024/25 ranging around 1.9–2.2 million tonnes depending on conditions. ([africa24tv.com](https://africa24tv.com/cote-divoire-1-36-million-tons-of-cocoa-exported-in-2025/))\\r\\n\\r\\nThe question resolves based on the officially reported total cocoa bean production for Côte d’Ivoire during the 2026 calendar year (January 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026), regardless of how the cocoa marketing season (which typically spans two calendar years) is defined.\",\"fine_print\":\"- \\\"Cocoa beans\\\" refers to raw cocoa bean production, not processed cocoa products.\\r\\n- The geographic scope is the country of Côte d’Ivoire as internationally recognized.\\r\\n- If production is reported only in crop years and no reliable conversion to calendar year is available, the question may be resolved using the 2025/26 crop year as a proxy, provided this is clearly indicated by the resolving source.\\r\\n- If no authoritative data is available by June 30, 2029, the question will be annulled.\\r\\n- Revisions to production figures after initial publication are allowed up until the resolution date; the latest available revised figure from the preferred source takes precedence.\",\"id\":\"ec348b34-3f38-45bd-8aad-21e3d51eac7f\",\"lower_bound\":\"1000000\",\"open_lower_bound\":true,\"open_upper_bound\":true,\"options\":[],\"options_are_comprehensive\":true,\"options_are_mutually_exclusive\":true,\"question_type\":\"numeric\",\"resolution_check_date\":\"2027-03-31\",\"resolution_criteria\":\"The question will resolve to the numeric value (in metric tonnes) of total cocoa bean production in Côte d’Ivoire for the 2026 calendar year.\\r\\n\\r\\nPrimary sources for resolution will be:\\r\\n- International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) annual statistics or reports\\r\\n- FAOSTAT (UN Food and Agriculture Organization)\\r\\n- World Bank or USDA Foreign Agricultural Service datasets\\r\\n\\r\\nIf multiple sources provide figures, the ICCO figure will take precedence. If ICCO does not provide a calendar-year figure, then FAOSTAT will be used. If only crop-year (e.g., 2025/26 and 2026/27) data are available, the value will be derived by averaging the overlapping portions or using the closest reported estimate explicitly attributed to calendar year 2026 by a major source.\",\"scale_type\":\"linear\",\"title\":\"How many tonnes of cocoa beans will the Ivory Coast produce in 2026?\",\"upper_bound\":\"3000000\"},\"question_version\":{\"created_at\":\"2026-11-08T16:50:02.603661+00:00\",\"created_reason\":\"forecast_task_created\",\"id\":\"3564797c-7fa8-41bc-a131-4e9e2265dc42\",\"version_number\":2},\"receipt_kind\":\"forecast_attestation\",\"receipt_schema_version\":1,\"signature_context\":{\"key_source\":\"configured\",\"public_key_id\":\"preseen-prod-ed25519-20260523\",\"signature_algorithm\":\"ed25519\",\"signed_at\":\"2026-11-08T17:18:50.929629+00:00\"}}","verification":{"valid":true,"error":""},"created_at":"2026-11-08T17:18:50.944739+00:00","updated_at":"2026-11-08T17:18:51.910896+00:00"}}